TY - JOUR A1 - Gruner, Friedemann A1 - Fuß, Sabine A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Minx, Jan C. A1 - Strefler, Jessica A1 - Merfort, Anne T1 - Wie CO2-Entnahmen helfen können, die Klimaziele zu erreichen JF - Klima und Recht Y1 - 2022 UR - https://beck-online.beck.de/?typ=reference&y=300&z=KLIMR&b=2022&s=18&n=1 SN - 2750-0551 VL - 1 IS - 1 SP - 18 EP - 21 PB - C.H. Beck CY - München ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Šedová, Barbora A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias T1 - Who are the climate migrants and where do they go? BT - Evidence from rural India JF - World development N2 - In this paper, we move from the large strand of research that looks at evidence of climate migration to the questions: who are the climate migrants? and where do they go? These questions are crucial to design policies that mitigate welfare losses of migration choices due to climate change. We study the direct and heterogeneous associations between weather extremes and migration in rural India. We combine ERAS reanalysis data with the India Human Development Survey household panel and conduct regression analyses by applying linear probability and multinomial logit models. This enables us to establish a causal relationship between temperature and precipitation anomalies and overall migration as well as migration by destination. We show that adverse weather shocks decrease rural-rural and international migration and push people into cities in different, presumably more prosperous states. A series of positive weather shocks, however, facilitates international migration and migration to cities within the same state. Further, our results indicate that in contrast to other migrants, climate migrants are likely to be from the lower end of the skill distribution and from households strongly dependent on agricultural production. We estimate that approximately 8% of all rural-urban moves between 2005 and 2012 can be attributed to weather. This figure might increase as a consequence of climate change. Thus, a key policy recommendation is to take steps to facilitate integration of less educated migrants into the urban labor market. KW - climate change KW - migration KW - household analysis KW - India KW - econometrics Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104848 SN - 0305-750X SN - 1873-5991 VL - 129 PB - Elsevier Science CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Bachelet, Marion A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Koch, Nicolas T1 - What if working from home will stick? BT - Distributional and climate impacts for Germany T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - The COVID-19 pandemic created the largest experiment in working from home. We study how persistent telework may change energy and transport consumption and costs in Germany to assess the distributional and environmental implications when working from home will stick. Based on data from the German Microcensus and available classifications of working-from-home feasibility for different occupations, we calculate the change in energy consumption and travel to work when 15% of employees work full time from home. Our findings suggest that telework translates into an annual increase in heating energy expenditure of 110 euros per worker and a decrease in transport expenditure of 840 euros per worker. All income groups would gain from telework but high-income workers gain twice as much as low-income workers. The value of time saving is between 1.3 and 6 times greater than the savings from reduced travel costs and almost 9 times higher for high-income workers than low-income workers. The direct effects on CO₂ emissions due to reduced car commuting amount to 4.5 millions tons of CO₂, representing around 3 percent of carbon emissions in the transport sector. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 41 KW - commuting KW - home office KW - COVID-19 KW - energy expenditure KW - carbon emissions Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-532384 SN - 2628-653X IS - 41 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Montrone, Lorenzo A1 - Steckel, Jan Christoph A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias T1 - The type of power capacity matters for economic development BT - evidence from a global panel JF - Resource and energy economics N2 - We examine the relationship between different types of power investments and regional economic dynamics. We construct a novel panel dataset combining data on regional GDP and power capacity additions for different technologies between 1960 and 2015, which covers 65% of the global power capacity that has been installed in this period. We use an event study design to identify the effect of power capacity addition on GDP per capita, exploiting the fact that the exact amount of power capacity coming online each year is determined by random construction delays. We find evidence that GDP per capita increases by 0.2% in the 6 years around the coming online of 100 MW coal-fired power capacity. We find similar effects for hydropower capacity, but not for any other type of power capacity. The positive effects are regionally bounded and stronger for projects on new sites (green-field). The magnitude of this effect might not be comparable to the total external costs of building new coal-fired power capacity, yet our results help to explain why policymakers favor coal investments for spurring regional growth. KW - Energy and development KW - Economic growth KW - Public infrastructure KW - Public investments KW - Electricity sector Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2022.101313 SN - 0928-7655 VL - 69 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Wenz, Leonie T1 - The impact of climate conditions on economic production BT - evidence from a global panel of regions JF - Journal of Environmental Economics and Management N2 - We present a novel data set of subnational economic output, Gross Regional Product (GRP), for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales. Employing annual panel models, long-difference regressions and cross-sectional regressions, we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth. We do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably. An increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3.5°C until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7–14% in 2100, with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions. Updating the DICE damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature-induced productivity losses is on the order of 73–142$/tCO2 in 2020, rising to 92–181$/tCO2 in 2030. These numbers exclude non-market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea-level rise. KW - climate change KW - climate damages KW - climate impacts KW - growth regression KW - global warming KW - panel regression KW - cross-sectional regression KW - damage KW - function KW - social costs of carbon Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102360 SN - 0095-0696 SN - 1096-0449 VL - 103 PB - Elsevier CY - San Diego ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kornher, Lukas A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias T1 - The gains of coordination - When does regional cooperation for food security make sense? JF - Global Food Security - AGRICULTURE POLICY ECONOMICS AND ENVIRONMENT N2 - With the onset of the global food crisis, the discussion about the use and misuse of agricultural market interventions regained academic attention. As a result of economies of scale, centralized policy implementation at the regional level has the potential to reduce the budgetary costs of policies. Borrowing from the literature on international unions and international policy coordination, we develop a conceptual framework to analyze when regional policy implementation makes sense. This is the case whenever spill-overs from centralization are large and policy preferences, driven by country-specific characteristics, are homogeneous. Subsequently, we examine the advantageousness of centralized policy implementation for the West African region regarding the most common food security policies. We show that centralization of trade policies and emergency food reserves is beneficial, while buffer stocks, safety net policies, and producer support policies should be implemented at the national level. KW - Food security KW - Regional cooperation KW - West Africa KW - International unions Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2019.09.004 SN - 2211-9124 VL - 22 SP - 37 EP - 45 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wenz, Leonie A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Steckel, Jan Christoph A1 - Creutzig, Felix T1 - Teleconnected food supply shocks JF - Environmental research letters N2 - The 2008-2010 food crisis might have been a harbinger of fundamental climate-induced food crises with geopolitical implications. Heat-wave-induced yield losses in Russia and resulting export restrictions led to increases in market prices for wheat across the Middle East, likely contributing to the Arab Spring. With ongoing climate change, temperatures and temperature variability will rise, leading to higher uncertainty in yields for major nutritional crops. Here we investigate which countries are most vulnerable to teleconnected supply-shocks, i.e. where diets strongly rely on the import of wheat, maize, or rice, and where a large share of the population is living in poverty. We find that the Middle East is most sensitive to teleconnected supply shocks in wheat, Central America to supply shocks in maize, and Western Africa to supply shocks in rice. Weighing with poverty levels, Sub-Saharan Africa is most affected. Altogether, a simultaneous 10% reduction in exports of wheat, rice, and maize would reduce caloric intake of 55 million people living in poverty by about 5%. Export bans in major producing regions would put up to 200 million people below the poverty line at risk, 90% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that a region-specific combination of national increases in agricultural productivity and diversification of trade partners and diets can effectively decrease future food security risks. KW - food security KW - trade shocks KW - vulnerability KW - climate change KW - teleconnections Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035007 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 11 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Döbbeling-Hildebrandt, Niklas A1 - Miersch, Klaas A1 - Khanna, Tarun M. A1 - Bachelet, Marion A1 - Bruns, Stephan B. A1 - Callaghan, Max A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar A1 - Flachsland, Christian A1 - Forster, Piers M. A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Koch, Nicolas A1 - Lamb, William F. A1 - Ohlendorf, Nils A1 - Steckel, Jan Christoph A1 - Minx, Jan C. T1 - Systematic review and meta-analysis of ex-post evaluations on the effectiveness of carbon pricing JF - Nature communications N2 - Today, more than 70 carbon pricing schemes have been implemented around the globe, but their contributions to emissions reductions remains a subject of heated debate in science and policy. Here we assess the effectiveness of carbon pricing in reducing emissions using a rigorous, machine-learning assisted systematic review and meta-analysis. Based on 483 effect sizes extracted from 80 causal ex-post evaluations across 21 carbon pricing schemes, we find that introducing a carbon price has yielded immediate and substantial emission reductions for at least 17 of these policies, despite the low level of prices in most instances. Statistically significant emissions reductions range between –5% to –21% across the schemes (–4% to –15% after correcting for publication bias). Our study highlights critical evidence gaps with regard to dozens of unevaluated carbon pricing schemes and the price elasticity of emissions reductions. More rigorous synthesis of carbon pricing and other climate policies is required across a range of outcomes to advance our understanding of “what works” and accelerate learning on climate solutions in science and policy. KW - carbon and energy KW - climate-change mitigation KW - climate-change policy KW - economics Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48512-w SN - 2041-1723 VL - 15 IS - 1 PB - Springer Nature CY - London ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Steckel, Jan Christoph A1 - Montrone, Lorenzo A1 - Jakob, Michael A1 - Peters, Jörg A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar T1 - Successful coal phase-out requires new models of development T2 - Nature Energy N2 - Different energy sources have different spillovers on economic development and industrialization. Pathways of economic development based on renewable energy sources might require additional policies to support industrial development. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-019-0500-5 SN - 2058-7546 VL - 4 IS - 11 SP - 897 EP - 900 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Amberg, Maximilian A1 - aus dem Moore, Nils A1 - Bekk, Anke A1 - Bergmann, Tobias A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar A1 - Flachsland, Christian A1 - George, Jan A1 - Haywood, Luke A1 - Heinemann, Maik A1 - Held, Anne A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Kellner, Maximilian A1 - Koch, Nicolas A1 - Luderer, Gunnar A1 - Meyer, Henrika A1 - Nikodinoska, Dragana A1 - Pahle, Michael A1 - Roolfs, Christina A1 - Schill, Wolf-Peter T1 - Reformoptionen für ein nachhaltiges Steuer- und Abgabensystem BT - wie Lenkungssteuern effektiv und gerecht für den Klima- und Umweltschutz ausgestaltet werden können JF - Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik N2 - Steuern und Abgaben auf Produkte oder Verbrauch mit gesellschaftlichen Folgekosten (externe Kosten) – sogenannte Pigou- oder Lenkungssteuern – sind ein gesellschaftliches „Win-Win-Instrument“. Sie verbessern die Wohlfahrt und schützen gleichzeitig die Umwelt und das Klima. Dies wird erreicht, indem umweltschädigende Aktivitäten einen Preis bekommen, der möglichst exakt der Höhe des Schadens entspricht. Eine konsequente Bepreisung der externen Kosten nach diesem Prinzip könnte in Deutschland erhebliche zusätzliche Einnahmen erbringen: Basierend auf bisherigen Studien zu externen Kosten wären zusätzliche Einnahmen in der Größenordnung von 348 bis 564 Milliarden Euro pro Jahr (44 bis 71 Prozent der gesamten Steuereinnahmen) möglich. Die Autoren warnen allerdings, dass die Bezifferung der externen Kosten mit erheblichen Unsicherheiten verbunden ist. Damit Lenkungssteuern und -abgaben ihre positiven Lenkungs- und Wohlstandseffekte voll entfalten können, seien zudem institutionelle Reformen notwendig. KW - Externalitäten KW - Pigou-Steuern KW - Nachhaltige Steuerreform KW - Energiewende Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1515/pwp-2021-0051 SN - 1465-6493 SN - 1468-2516 VL - 23 IS - 3 SP - 165 EP - 199 PB - De Gruyter CY - Berlin ER -