TY - RPRT A1 - Lessmann, Kai A1 - Gruner, Friedemann A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar T1 - Emissions Trading with Clean-up Certificates BT - Deterring Mitigation or Increasing Ambition? T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We analyze how conventional emissions trading schemes (ETS) can be modified by introducing “clean-up certificates” to allow for a phase of net-negative emissions. Clean-up certificates bundle the permission to emit CO2 with the obligation for its removal. We show that demand for such certificates is determined by cost-saving technological progress, the discount rate and the length of the compliance period. Introducing extra clean-up certificates into an existing ETS reduces near-term carbon prices and mitigation efforts. In contrast, substituting ETS allowances with clean-up certificates reduces cumulative emissions without depressing carbon prices or mitigation in the near term. We calibrate our model to the EU ETS and identify reforms where simultaneously (i) ambition levels rise, (ii) climate damages fall, (iii) revenues from carbon prices rise and (iv) carbon prices and aggregate mitigation cost fall. For reducing climate damages, roughly half of the issued clean-up certificates should replace conventional ETS allowances. In the context of the EU ETS, a European Carbon Central Bank could manage the implementation of cleanup certificates and could serve as an enforcement mechanism. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 79 KW - carbon removal KW - carbon pricing KW - net-negative emissions KW - carbon debt Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-641368 SN - 2628-653X IS - 79 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Barschkett, Mara A1 - Huebener, Mathias A1 - Leibing, Andreas A1 - Marcus, Jan A1 - Margaryan, Shushanik T1 - Replication of Atwood’s (2022) the long-term effects of measles vaccination on earnings and employment T2 - I4R discussion paper series N2 - Atwood (2022) analyzes the effects of the 1963 U.S. measles vaccination on longrun labor market outcomes, using a generalized difference-in-differences approach. We reproduce the results of this paper and perform a battery of robustness checks. Overall, we confirm that the measles vaccination had positive labor market effects. While the negative effect on the likelihood of living in poverty and the positive effect on the probability of being employed are very robust across the different specifications, the headline estimate-the effect on earnings-is more sensitive to the exclusion of certain regions and survey years. Y1 - 2023 SN - 2752-1931 IS - 33 PB - Institute for Replication CY - Essen ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Borck, Rainald A1 - Mulder, Peter T1 - Energy policies and pollution in two developing country cities BT - A quantitative model T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We study the effect of energy and transport policies on pollution in two developing country cities. We use a quantitative equilibrium model with choice of housing, energy use, residential location, transport mode, and energy technology. Pollution comes from commuting and residential energy use. The model parameters are calibrated to replicate key variables for two developing country cities, Maputo, Mozambique, and Yogyakarta, Indonesia. In the counterfactual simulations, we study how various transport and energy policies affect equilibrium pollution. Policies may be induce rebound effects from increasing residential energy use or switching to high emission modes or locations. In general, these rebound effects tend to be largest for subsidies to public transport or modern residential energy technology. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 78 KW - pollution KW - energy policy KW - discrete choice KW - developing country cities Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-638472 SN - 2628-653X IS - 78 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Andres, Maximilian A1 - Bruttel, Lisa T1 - Communicating Cartel Intentions T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - While the economic harm of cartels is caused by their price-increasing effect, sanctioning by courts rather targets at the underlying process of firms reaching a price-fixing agreement. This paper provides experimental evidence on the question whether such sanctioning meets the economic target, i.e., whether evidence of a collusive meeting of the firms and of the content of their communication reliably predicts subsequent prices. We find that already the mere mutual agreement to meet predicts a strong increase in prices. Conversely, express distancing from communication completely nullifies its otherwise price-increasing effect. Using machine learning, we show that communication only increases prices if it is very explicit about how the cartel plans to behave. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 77 KW - cartel KW - collusion KW - communication KW - machine learning KW - experiment Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-638469 SN - 2628-653X IS - 77 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Schwab, Regine A1 - Krause, Werner A1 - Massoud, Samer T1 - The bombing of hospitals and local violence dynamics in civil wars BT - evidence from Syria (2017 - 2020) T2 - HiCN Working paper N2 - The impact of civilian harm on strategic outcomes in war has been the subject of persistent debate. However, the literature has primarily focused on civilian casualties, thereby overlooking the targeting of civilian infrastructure, which is a recurrent phenomenon during war. This study fills this gap by examining the targeting of healthcare, one of the most indispensable infrastructures during war and peace time. We contend that attacks on medical facilities are distinct from direct violence against civilians. Because they are typically unrelated to military dynamics, the targeting of hospitals is a highly visible form and powerful signal of civilian victimization. To assess its effects, we analyze newly collected data on such attacks by pro-government forces and event data on combat activities in Northwest Syria (2017-2020). Applying a new approach for panel data analysis that combines matching methods with a difference-in-differences estimation, we examine the causal effect of counterinsurgent bombings on subsequent violent events. Distinguishing between regime-initiated and insurgent-initiated combat activities and their associated fatalities, we find that the targeting of hospitals increases insurgent violence. We supplement the quantitative analysis with unique qualitative evidence derived from interviews, which demonstrates that hospital bombings induce rebels to resist more fiercely through two mechanisms: intrinsic motivations and civilian pressure. The results have important implications for the effects of state-led violence and the strength of legal norms that protect noncombatants. KW - civil war KW - collective targeting KW - civilian infrastructure KW - hospitals KW - rebel attacks KW - Syria Y1 - 2023 UR - https://hicn.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/HiCN-WP-403-2.pdf VL - 403 PB - Households in Conflict Network CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Maliranta, Mika A1 - Nippala, Veera A1 - Nurmi, Satu T1 - Does gender of firm ownership matter? BT - Female entrepreneurs and the gender pay gap T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We examine how the gender of business-owners is related to the wages paid to female relative to male employees working in their firms. Using Finnish register data and employing firm fixed effects, we find that the gender pay gap is – starting from a gender pay gap of 11 to 12 percent - two to three percentage-points lower for hourly wages in female-owned firms than in male-owned firms. Results are robust to how the wage is measured, as well as to various further robustness checks. More importantly, we find substantial differences between industries. While, for instance, in the manufacturing sector, the gender of the owner plays no role for the gender pay gap, in several service sector industries, like ICT or business services, no or a negligible gender pay gap can be found, but only when firms are led by female business owners. Businesses in male ownership maintain a gender pay gap of around 10 percent also in the latter industries. With increasing firm size, the influence of the gender of the owner, however, fades. In large firms, it seems that others – firm managers – determine wages and no differences in the pay gap are observed between male- and female-owned firms. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 76 KW - entrepreneurship KW - gender pay gap KW - discrimination KW - linked employer-employee data Y1 - 2024 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-636194 SN - 2628-653X IS - 76 SP - 1 EP - 39 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Debre, Maria Josepha A1 - Sommerer, Thomas T1 - Weathering the storm? BT - the third wave of autocratization and international organization membership T2 - IGCC series on authoritarian regimes and international organizations N2 - Democratization scholars are currently debating if we are indeed witnessing a third wave of autocratization. While this has led to an extensive debate about the future of the liberal international order, we still know relatively little about the consequences of autocratization for international organizations (IOs). In this article, we explore to what extent autocratization has led to changes in the composition of IO membership. We propose three different ways of conceptualizing autocratization of IO membership. We argue that we should move away from a dichotomous understanding of regime type and regime change, but rather focus on composition of subregime types to understand current developments. We build on updated membership data for 73 IOs through 2020 to map membership configurations based on the V-Dem Electoral Democracy Index. Contrary to current debates on the crisis of the liberal order, we find that many IOs are not (yet) affected by broad autocratization of their membership that would endanger democratic majorities or overall democratic densities. However, we also observe the disappearance of formerly homogenous democratic clubs due to democratic backsliding in a number of European and Latin American IO member states, as well as a return of autocratic clubs in Southeast Asia and Southern Africa. These findings have important implications for the broader research agenda on international democracy promotion and human right protection as well as the study of legitimacy and the effectiveness of international organizations. Y1 - 2023 UR - https://ucigcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Debre-Sommerer-Working-Paper-11.21.23.pdf PB - UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation CY - La Jolla, CA ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Dörfler, Thomas ED - Lohmann, Sascha ED - Vorrath, Judith T1 - Interface challenges of UN sanctions with forums of export control BT - towards cohesion and consistency in non-proliferation sanctions? T2 - International sanctions: improving implementation through better interface management Y1 - 2021 UR - https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/arbeitspapiere/WP_International_Sanctions.pdf SP - 23 EP - 31 PB - Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik CY - Berlin ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. A1 - Silva-Goncalves, Juliana A1 - Uhlendorff, Arne T1 - Locus of control and the preference for agency T2 - IZA discussion paper N2 - We conduct a laboratory experiment to study how locus of control operates through people's preferences and beliefs to influence their decisions. Using the principal-agent setting of the delegation game, we test four key channels that conceptually link locus of control to decision-making: (i) preference for agency; (ii) optimism and (iii) confidence regarding the return to effort; and (iv) illusion of control. Knowing the return and cost of stated effort, principals either retain or delegate the right to make an investment decision that generates payoffs for themselves and their agents. Extending the game to the context in which the return to stated effort is unknown allows us to explicitly study the relationship between locus of control and beliefs about the return to effort. We find that internal locus of control is linked to the preference for agency, an effect that is driven by women. We find no evidence that locus of control influences optimism and confidence about the return to stated effort, or that it operates through an illusion of control. KW - locus of control KW - preference for agency KW - decision-making KW - beliefs KW - optimism KW - confidence KW - illusion of control Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4416820 SN - 2365-9793 VL - No. 16061 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Matzat, Johannes A1 - Schmeißer, Aiko T1 - Do unions shape political ideologies at work? T2 - CESifo Working Paper N2 - Labor unions’ greatest potential for political influence likely arises from their direct connection to millions of individuals at the workplace. There, they may change the ideological positions of both unionizing workers and their non-unionizing management. In this paper, we analyze the workplace-level impact of unionization on workers’ and managers’ political campaign contributions over the 1980-2016 period in the United States. To do so, we link establishment-level union election data with transaction-level campaign contributions to federal and local candidates. In a difference-in-differences design that we validate with regression discontinuity tests and a novel instrumental variables approach, we find that unionization leads to a leftward shift of campaign contributions. Unionization increases the support for Democrats relative to Republicans not only among workers but also among managers, which speaks against an increase in political cleavages between the two groups. We provide evidence that our results are not driven by compositional changes of the workforce and are weaker in states with Right-to-Work laws where unions can invest fewer resources in political activities. KW - labor unions KW - political ideology KW - campaign contributions KW - worker-manager relations Y1 - 2023 SN - 2364-1428 SN - 1617-9595 IS - 10301 PB - CESifo GmbH (Münchener Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wirtschaftswissenschaft) CY - München ER -