@misc{CherstvyVinodAghionetal.2017, author = {Cherstvy, Andrey G. and Vinod, Deepak and Aghion, Erez and Chechkin, Aleksei V. and Metzler, Ralf}, title = {Time averaging, ageing and delay analysis of financial time series}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400541}, pages = {11}, year = {2017}, abstract = {We introduce three strategies for the analysis of financial time series based on time averaged observables. These comprise the time averaged mean squared displacement (MSD) as well as the ageing and delay time methods for varying fractions of the financial time series. We explore these concepts via statistical analysis of historic time series for several Dow Jones Industrial indices for the period from the 1960s to 2015. Remarkably, we discover a simple universal law for the delay time averaged MSD. The observed features of the financial time series dynamics agree well with our analytical results for the time averaged measurables for geometric Brownian motion, underlying the famed Black-Scholes-Merton model. The concepts we promote here are shown to be useful for financial data analysis and enable one to unveil new universal features of stock market dynamics.}, language = {en} } @misc{GallegoLlorenteSarahJonesetal.2016, author = {Gallego-Llorente, Marcos and Sarah, Connell and Jones, Eppie R. and Merrett, Deborah C. and Jeon, Y. and Eriksson, Anders and Siska, Veronika and Gamba, Cristina and Meiklejohn, Christopher and Beyer, Robert and Jeon, Sungwon and Cho, Yun Sung and Hofreiter, Michael and Bhak, Jong and Manica, Andrea and Pinhasi, Ron}, title = {The genetics of an early Neolithic pastoralist from the Zagros, Iran}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {952}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-43935}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-439355}, pages = {9}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The agricultural transition profoundly changed human societies. We sequenced and analysed the first genome (1.39x) of an early Neolithic woman from Ganj Dareh, in the Zagros Mountains of Iran, a site with early evidence for an economy based on goat herding, ca. 10,000 BP. We show that Western Iran was inhabited by a population genetically most similar to hunter-gatherers from the Caucasus, but distinct from the Neolithic Anatolian people who later brought food production into Europe. The inhabitants of Ganj Dareh made little direct genetic contribution to modern European populations, suggesting those of the Central Zagros were somewhat isolated from other populations of the Fertile Crescent. Runs of homozygosity are of a similar length to those from Neolithic farmers, and shorter than those of Caucasus and Western Hunter-Gatherers, suggesting that the inhabitants of Ganj Dareh did not undergo the large population bottleneck suffered by their northern neighbours. While some degree of cultural diffusion between Anatolia, Western Iran and other neighbouring regions is possible, the genetic dissimilarity between early Anatolian farmers and the inhabitants of Ganj Dareh supports a model in which Neolithic societies in these areas were distinct.}, language = {en} } @misc{GranadoAbadMetzleretal.2020, author = {Granado, Felipe Le Vot and Abad, Enrique and Metzler, Ralf and Yuste, Santos B.}, title = {Continuous time random walk in a velocity field}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1005}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-47999}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-479997}, pages = {28}, year = {2020}, abstract = {We consider the emerging dynamics of a separable continuous time random walk (CTRW) in the case when the random walker is biased by a velocity field in a uniformly growing domain. Concrete examples for such domains include growing biological cells or lipid vesicles, biofilms and tissues, but also macroscopic systems such as expanding aquifers during rainy periods, or the expanding Universe. The CTRW in this study can be subdiffusive, normal diffusive or superdiffusive, including the particular case of a L{\´e}vy flight. We first consider the case when the velocity field is absent. In the subdiffusive case, we reveal an interesting time dependence of the kurtosis of the particle probability density function. In particular, for a suitable parameter choice, we find that the propagator, which is fat tailed at short times, may cross over to a Gaussian-like propagator. We subsequently incorporate the effect of the velocity field and derive a bi-fractional diffusion-advection equation encoding the time evolution of the particle distribution. We apply this equation to study the mixing kinetics of two diffusing pulses, whose peaks move towards each other under the action of velocity fields acting in opposite directions. This deterministic motion of the peaks, together with the diffusive spreading of each pulse, tends to increase particle mixing, thereby counteracting the peak separation induced by the domain growth. As a result of this competition, different regimes of mixing arise. In the case of L{\´e}vy flights, apart from the non-mixing regime, one has two different mixing regimes in the long-time limit, depending on the exact parameter choice: in one of these regimes, mixing is mainly driven by diffusive spreading, while in the other mixing is controlled by the velocity fields acting on each pulse. Possible implications for encounter-controlled reactions in real systems are discussed.}, language = {en} } @misc{GrebenkovMetzlerOshanin2021, author = {Grebenkov, Denis S. and Metzler, Ralf and Oshanin, Gleb}, title = {Distribution of first-reaction times with target regions on boundaries of shell-like domains}, series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam}, address = {Potsdam}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-55754}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-557542}, pages = {1 -- 23}, year = {2021}, abstract = {We study the probability density function (PDF) of the first-reaction times between a diffusive ligand and a membrane-bound, immobile imperfect target region in a restricted 'onion-shell' geometry bounded by two nested membranes of arbitrary shapes. For such a setting, encountered in diverse molecular signal transduction pathways or in the narrow escape problem with additional steric constraints, we derive an exact spectral form of the PDF, as well as present its approximate form calculated by help of the so-called self-consistent approximation. For a particular case when the nested domains are concentric spheres, we get a fully explicit form of the approximated PDF, assess the accuracy of this approximation, and discuss various facets of the obtained distributions. Our results can be straightforwardly applied to describe the PDF of the terminal reaction event in multi-stage signal transduction processes.}, language = {en} } @misc{GrebenkovMetzlerOshanin2020, author = {Grebenkov, Denis S. and Metzler, Ralf and Oshanin, Gleb}, title = {From single-particle stochastic kinetics to macroscopic reaction rates}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1018}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-48405}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-484059}, pages = {29}, year = {2020}, abstract = {We consider the first-passage problem for N identical independent particles that are initially released uniformly in a finite domain Ω and then diffuse toward a reactive area Γ, which can be part of the outer boundary of Ω or a reaction centre in the interior of Ω. For both cases of perfect and partial reactions, we obtain the explicit formulas for the first two moments of the fastest first-passage time (fFPT), i.e., the time when the first out of the N particles reacts with Γ. Moreover, we investigate the full probability density of the fFPT. We discuss a significant role of the initial condition in the scaling of the average fFPT with the particle number N, namely, a much stronger dependence (1/N and 1/N² for partially and perfectly reactive targets, respectively), in contrast to the well known inverse-logarithmic behaviour found when all particles are released from the same fixed point. We combine analytic solutions with scaling arguments and stochastic simulations to rationalise our results, which open new perspectives for studying the relevance of multiple searchers in various situations of molecular reactions, in particular, in living cells.}, language = {en} } @misc{GrebenkovMetzlerOshanin2021, author = {Grebenkov, Denis S. and Metzler, Ralf and Oshanin, Gleb}, title = {A molecular relay race: sequential first-passage events to the terminal reaction centre in a cascade of diffusion controlled processes}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-52194}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-521942}, pages = {20}, year = {2021}, abstract = {We consider a sequential cascade of molecular first-reaction events towards a terminal reaction centre in which each reaction step is controlled by diffusive motion of the particles. The model studied here represents a typical reaction setting encountered in diverse molecular biology systems, in which, e.g. a signal transduction proceeds via a series of consecutive 'messengers': the first messenger has to find its respective immobile target site triggering a launch of the second messenger, the second messenger seeks its own target site and provokes a launch of the third messenger and so on, resembling a relay race in human competitions. For such a molecular relay race taking place in infinite one-, two- and three-dimensional systems, we find exact expressions for the probability density function of the time instant of the terminal reaction event, conditioned on preceding successful reaction events on an ordered array of target sites. The obtained expressions pertain to the most general conditions: number of intermediate stages and the corresponding diffusion coefficients, the sizes of the target sites, the distances between them, as well as their reactivities are arbitrary.}, language = {en} } @misc{GrebenkovSposiniMetzleretal.2020, author = {Grebenkov, Denis S. and Sposini, Vittoria and Metzler, Ralf and Oshanin, Gleb and Seno, Flavio}, title = {Exact distributions of the maximum and range of random diffusivity processes}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1142}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-50397}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-503976}, pages = {24}, year = {2020}, abstract = {We study the extremal properties of a stochastic process xt defined by the Langevin equation ẋₜ =√2Dₜ ξₜ, in which ξt is a Gaussian white noise with zero mean and Dₜ is a stochastic'diffusivity', defined as a functional of independent Brownian motion Bₜ.We focus on threechoices for the random diffusivity Dₜ: cut-off Brownian motion, Dₜt ∼ Θ(Bₜ), where Θ(x) is the Heaviside step function; geometric Brownian motion, Dₜ ∼ exp(-Bₜ); and a superdiffusive process based on squared Brownian motion, Dₜ ∼ B²ₜ. For these cases we derive exact expressions for the probability density functions of the maximal positive displacement and of the range of the process xₜ on the time interval ₜ ∈ (0, T).We discuss the asymptotic behaviours of the associated probability density functions, compare these against the behaviour of the corresponding properties of standard Brownian motion with constant diffusivity (Dₜ = D0) and also analyse the typical behaviour of the probability density functions which is observed for a majority of realisations of the stochastic diffusivity process.}, language = {en} } @misc{LiMeiXuetal.2020, author = {Li, Yongge and Mei, Ruoxing and Xu, Yong and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Duan, Jinqiao and Metzler, Ralf}, title = {Particle dynamics and transport enhancement in a confined channel with position-dependent diffusivity}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {974}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-47454}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-474542}, pages = {28}, year = {2020}, abstract = {This work focuses on the dynamics of particles in a confined geometry with position-dependent diffusivity, where the confinement is modelled by a periodic channel consisting of unit cells connected by narrow passage ways. We consider three functional forms for the diffusivity, corresponding to the scenarios of a constant (D ₀), as well as a low (D ₘ) and a high (D d) mobility diffusion in cell centre of the longitudinally symmetric cells. Due to the interaction among the diffusivity, channel shape and external force, the system exhibits complex and interesting phenomena. By calculating the probability density function, mean velocity and mean first exit time with the It{\^o} calculus form, we find that in the absence of external forces the diffusivity D d will redistribute particles near the channel wall, while the diffusivity D ₘ will trap them near the cell centre. The superposition of external forces will break their static distributions. Besides, our results demonstrate that for the diffusivity D d, a high dependence on the x coordinate (parallel with the central channel line) will improve the mean velocity of the particles. In contrast, for the diffusivity D ₘ, a weak dependence on the x coordinate will dramatically accelerate the moving speed. In addition, it shows that a large external force can weaken the influences of different diffusivities; inversely, for a small external force, the types of diffusivity affect significantly the particle dynamics. In practice, one can apply these results to achieve a prominent enhancement of the particle transport in two- or three-dimensional channels by modulating the local tracer diffusivity via an engineered gel of varying porosity or by adding a cold tube to cool down the diffusivity along the central line, which may be a relevant effect in engineering applications. Effects of different stochastic calculi in the evaluation of the underlying multiplicative stochastic equation for different physical scenarios are discussed.}, language = {en} } @misc{MakwanaYan2020, author = {Makwana, Kirit D. and Yan, Huirong}, title = {Properties of magnetohydrodynamic modes in compressively driven plasma turbulence}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, volume = {10}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {3}, publisher = {American Physical Society (APS)}, address = {College Park}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-53160}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-531607}, pages = {17}, year = {2020}, abstract = {We study properties of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) eigenmodes by decomposing the data of MHD simulations into linear MHD modes-namely, the Alfven, slow magnetosonic, and fast magnetosonic modes. We drive turbulence with a mixture of solenoidal and compressive driving while varying the Alfven Mach number (M-A), plasma beta, and the sonic Mach number from subsonic to transsonic. We find that the proportion of fast and slow modes in the mode mixture increases with increasing compressive forcing. This proportion of the magnetosonic modes can also become the dominant fraction in the mode mixture. The anisotropy of the modes is analyzed by means of their structure functions. The Alfven-mode anisotropy is consistent with the Goldreich-Sridhar theory. We find a transition from weak to strong Alfvenic turbulence as we go from low to high M-A. The slow-mode properties are similar to the Alfven mode. On the other hand, the isotropic nature of fast modes is verified in the cases where the fast mode is a significant fraction of the mode mixture. The fast-mode behavior does not show any transition in going from low to high M-A. We find indications that there is some interaction between the different modes, and the properties of the dominant mode can affect the properties of the weaker modes. This work identifies the conditions under which magnetosonic modes can be a major fraction of turbulent astrophysical plasmas, including the regime of weak turbulence. Important astrophysical implications for cosmic-ray transport and magnetic reconnection are discussed.}, language = {en} } @misc{MuenchKipfstuhlFreitagetal.2016, author = {M{\"u}nch, Thomas and Kipfstuhl, Sepp and Freitag, Johannes and Meyer, Hanno and Laepple, Thomas}, title = {Regional climate signal vs. local noise}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {500}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-40838}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408385}, pages = {17}, year = {2016}, abstract = {In low-accumulation regions, the reliability of delta O-18-derived temperature signals from ice cores within the Holocene is unclear, primarily due to the small climate changes relative to the intrinsic noise of the isotopic signal. In order to learn about the representativity of single ice cores and to optimise future ice-core-based climate reconstructions, we studied the stable-water isotope composition of firn at Kohnen Station, Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica. Analysing delta O-18 in two 50m long snow trenches allowed us to create an unprecedented, two-dimensional image characterising the isotopic variations from the centimetre to the 100-metre scale. Our results show seasonal layering of the isotopic composition but also high horizontal isotopic variability caused by local stratigraphic noise. Based on the horizontal and vertical structure of the isotopic variations, we derive a statistical noise model which successfully explains the trench data. The model further allows one to determine an upper bound for the reliability of climate reconstructions conducted in our study region at seasonal to annual resolution, depending on the number and the spacing of the cores taken.}, language = {en} }