@misc{LewandowskyCowtanRisbeyetal.2018,
  author    = {Lewandowsky, Stephan and Cowtan, Kevin and Risbey, James S. and Mann, Michael E. and Steinman, Byron A. and Oreskes, Naomi and Rahmstorf, Stefan},
  title     = {The 'pause' in global warming in historical context},
  series = {Environmental research letters},
  volume    = {13},
  journal   = {Environmental research letters},
  number    = {12},
  publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {1748-9326},
  doi       = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaf372},
  pages     = {25},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics.},
  language  = {en}
}