@article{AbdallaAdamAharonianetal.2020, author = {Abdalla, Hassan E. and Adam, Remi and Aharonian, Felix A. and Benkhali, Faical Ait and Ang{\"u}ner, Ekrem Oǧuzhan and Arakawa, Masanori and Arcaro, C and Armand, Catherine and Armstrong, T. and Egberts, Kathrin}, title = {Very high energy γ-ray emission from two blazars of unknown redshift and upper limits on their distance}, series = {Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society}, volume = {494}, journal = {Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society}, number = {4}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Oxford}, pages = {13}, year = {2020}, abstract = {We report on the detection of very high energy (VHE; E > 100 GeV) gamma-ray emission from the BL Lac objects KUV 00311-1938 and PKS 1440-389 with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.). H.E.S.S. observations were accompanied or preceded by multiwavelength observations with Fermi/LAT, XRT and UVOT onboard the Swift satellite, and ATOM. Based on an extrapolation of the Fermi/LAT spectrum towards the VHE gamma-ray regime, we deduce a 95 per cent confidence level upper limit on the unknown redshift of KUV 00311-1938 of z < 0.98 and of PKS 1440-389 of z < 0.53. When combined with previous spectroscopy results, the redshift of KUV 00311-1938 is constrained to 0.51 <= z < 0.98 and of PKS 1440-389 to 0.14 (sic) z < 0.53.}, language = {en} } @article{MiddelanisWillnerOttoetal.2021, author = {Middelanis, Robin and Willner, Sven N. and Otto, Christian and Kuhla, Kilian and Quante, Lennart and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Wave-like global economic ripple response to Hurricane Sandy}, series = {Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics}, volume = {16}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics}, number = {12}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac39c0}, pages = {11}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Tropical cyclones range among the costliest disasters on Earth. Their economic repercussions along the supply and trade network also affect remote economies that are not directly affected. We here simulate possible global repercussions on consumption for the example case of Hurricane Sandy in the US (2012) using the shock-propagation model Acclimate. The modeled shock yields a global three-phase ripple: an initial production demand reduction and associated consumption price decrease, followed by a supply shortage with increasing prices, and finally a recovery phase. Regions with strong trade relations to the US experience strong magnitudes of the ripple. A dominating demand reduction or supply shortage leads to overall consumption gains or losses of a region, respectively. While finding these repercussions in historic data is challenging due to strong volatility of economic interactions, numerical models like ours can help to identify them by approaching the problem from an exploratory angle, isolating the effect of interest. For this, our model simulates the economic interactions of over 7000 regional economic sectors, interlinked through about 1.8 million trade relations. Under global warming, the wave-like structures of the economic response to major hurricanes like the one simulated here are likely to intensify and potentially overlap with other weather extremes.}, language = {en} } @article{MuenchLaepple2018, author = {M{\"u}nch, Thomas and Laepple, Thomas}, title = {What climate signal is contained in decadal- to centennial-scale isotope variations from Antarctic ice cores?}, series = {Climate of the past : CP}, volume = {14}, journal = {Climate of the past : CP}, number = {12}, publisher = {Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1814-9324}, doi = {10.5194/cp-14-2053-2018}, pages = {2053 -- 2070}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Ice-core-based records of isotopic composition are a proxy for past temperatures and can thus provide information on polar climate variability over a large range of timescales. However, individual isotope records are affected by a multitude of processes that may mask the true temperature variability. The relative magnitude of climate and non-climate contributions is expected to vary as a function of timescale, and thus it is crucial to determine those temporal scales on which the actual signal dominates the noise. At present, there are no reliable estimates of this timescale dependence of the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Here, we present a simple method that applies spectral analyses to stable-isotope data from multiple cores to estimate the SNR, and the signal and noise variability, as a function of timescale. The method builds on separating the contributions from a common signal and from local variations and includes a correction for the effects of diffusion and time uncertainty. We apply our approach to firn-core arrays from Dronning Maud Land (DML) in East Antarctica and from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). For DML and decadal to multi-centennial timescales, we find an increase in the SNR by nearly 1 order of magnitude (similar to 0.2 at decadal and similar to 1.0 at multi-centennial scales). The estimated spectrum of climate variability also shows increasing variability towards longer timescales, contrary to what is traditionally inferred from single records in this region. In contrast, the inferred variability spectrum for WAIS stays close to constant over decadal to centennial timescales, and the results even suggest a decrease in SNR over this range of timescales. We speculate that these differences between DML and WAIS are related to differences in the spatial and temporal scales of the isotope signal, highlighting the potentially more homogeneous atmospheric conditions on the Antarctic Plateau in contrast to the marine-influenced conditions on WAIS. In general, our approach provides a methodological basis for separating local proxy variability from coherent climate variations, which is applicable to a large set of palaeoclimate records.}, language = {en} } @article{KloseWunderlingWinkelmannetal.2021, author = {Klose, Ann Kristin and Wunderling, Nico and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Donges, Jonathan}, title = {What do we mean, 'tipping cascade'?}, series = {Environmental research letters : ERL}, volume = {16}, journal = {Environmental research letters : ERL}, number = {12}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac3955}, pages = {11}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Based on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth's climate and in ecological systems, tipping cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed and studied. The activation of such tipping cascades would impose a considerable risk for human societies and biosphere integrity. However, there are ambiguities in the description of tipping cascades within the literature so far. Here we illustrate how different patterns of multiple tipping dynamics emerge from a very simple coupling of two previously studied idealized tipping elements. In particular, we distinguish between a two phase cascade, a domino cascade and a joint cascade. A mitigation of an unfolding two phase cascade may be possible and common early warning indicators are sensitive to upcoming critical transitions to a certain degree. In contrast, a domino cascade may hardly be stopped once initiated and critical slowing down-based indicators fail to indicate tipping of the following element. These different potentials for intervention and anticipation across the distinct patterns of multiple tipping dynamics should be seen as a call to be more precise in future analyses of cascading dynamics arising from tipping element interactions in the Earth system.}, language = {en} } @article{HaasShpritsAllisonetal.2022, author = {Haas, Bernhard and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Allison, Hayley and Wutzig, Michael and Wang, Dedong}, title = {Which parameter controls ring current electron dynamics}, series = {Frontiers in astronomy and space sciences}, volume = {9}, journal = {Frontiers in astronomy and space sciences}, publisher = {Frontiers Media}, address = {Lausanne}, issn = {2296-987X}, doi = {10.3389/fspas.2022.911002}, pages = {11}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Predicting the electron population of Earth's ring current during geomagnetic storms still remains a challenging task. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of 10 keV ring current electrons to different driving processes, parameterised by the Kp index, during several moderate and intense storms. Results are validated against measurements from the Van Allen Probes satellites. Perturbing the Kp index allows us to identify the most dominant processes for moderate and intense storms respectively. We find that during moderate storms (Kp < 6) the drift velocities mostly control the behaviour of low energy electrons, while loss from wave-particle interactions is the most critical parameter for quantifying the evolution of intense storms (Kp > 6). Perturbations of the Kp index used to drive the boundary conditions at GEO and set the plasmapause location only show a minimal effect on simulation results over a limited L range. It is further shown that the flux at L \& SIM; 3 is more sensitive to changes in the Kp index compared to higher L shells, making it a good proxy for validating the source-loss balance of a ring current model.}, language = {en} } @article{BetaGovYochelis2020, author = {Beta, Carsten and Gov, Nir S. and Yochelis, Arik}, title = {Why a Large-Scale Mode Can Be Essential for Understanding Intracellular Actin Waves}, series = {Cells}, volume = {9}, journal = {Cells}, number = {6}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2073-4409}, doi = {10.3390/cells9061533}, pages = {18}, year = {2020}, abstract = {During the last decade, intracellular actin waves have attracted much attention due to their essential role in various cellular functions, ranging from motility to cytokinesis. Experimental methods have advanced significantly and can capture the dynamics of actin waves over a large range of spatio-temporal scales. However, the corresponding coarse-grained theory mostly avoids the full complexity of this multi-scale phenomenon. In this perspective, we focus on a minimal continuum model of activator-inhibitor type and highlight the qualitative role of mass conservation, which is typically overlooked. Specifically, our interest is to connect between the mathematical mechanisms of pattern formation in the presence of a large-scale mode, due to mass conservation, and distinct behaviors of actin waves.}, language = {en} }