@article{BuergerHeistermann2023, author = {B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Heistermann, Maik}, title = {Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres}, series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences : NHESS}, volume = {23}, journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences : NHESS}, number = {9}, publisher = {European Geophysical Society}, address = {Katlenburg-Lindau}, issn = {1561-8633}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023}, pages = {3065 -- 3077}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify daily ERA5 fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using an array of 13 statistical methods, consisting of 4 conventional ("shallow") and 9 more recent deep machine learning (DL) algorithms; the classifiers are then applied to corresponding fields of simulated present and future atmospheres from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. The inherent uncertainty of the DL results from the stochastic nature of their optimization is addressed by employing an ensemble approach using 20 runs for each network. The shallow random forest method performs best with an equitable threat score (ETS) around 0.52, followed by the DL networks ALL-CNN and ResNet with an ETS near 0.48. Their success can be understood as a result of conceptual simplicity and parametric parsimony, which obviously best fits the relatively simple classification task. It is found that, on summer days, CatRaRE convective atmospheres over Germany occur with a probability of about 0.5. This probability is projected to increase, regardless of method, both in ERA5-reanalyzed and CORDEX-simulated atmospheres: for the historical period we find a centennial increase of about 0.2 and for the future period one of slightly below 0.1.}, language = {en} } @article{KurthsAgarwalShuklaetal.2019, author = {Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Agarwal, Ankit and Shukla, Roopam and Marwan, Norbert and Maheswaran, Rathinasamy and Caesar, Levke and Krishnan, Raghavan and Merz, Bruno}, title = {Unravelling the spatial diversity of Indian precipitation teleconnections via a non-linear multi-scale approach}, series = {Nonlinear processes in geophysics}, volume = {26}, journal = {Nonlinear processes in geophysics}, number = {3}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1023-5809}, doi = {10.5194/npg-26-251-2019}, pages = {251 -- 266}, year = {2019}, abstract = {A better understanding of precipitation dynamics in the Indian subcontinent is required since India's society depends heavily on reliable monsoon forecasts. We introduce a non-linear, multiscale approach, based on wavelets and event synchronization, for unravelling teleconnection influences on precipitation. We consider those climate patterns with the highest relevance for Indian precipitation. Our results suggest significant influences which are not well captured by only the wavelet coherence analysis, the state-of-the-art method in understanding linkages at multiple timescales. We find substantial variation across India and across timescales. In particular, El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mainly influence precipitation in the south-east at interannual and decadal scales, respectively, whereas the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a strong connection to precipitation, particularly in the northern regions. The effect of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) stretches across the whole country, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) influences precipitation particularly in the central arid and semi-arid regions. The proposed method provides a powerful approach for capturing the dynamics of precipitation and, hence, helps improve precipitation forecasting.}, language = {en} } @article{Topuz2022, author = {Topuz, Birol}, title = {Quranic verses shaping Djem and false perception of Alevism in the society}, series = {International journal of islamic thought : IJIT}, volume = {21}, journal = {International journal of islamic thought : IJIT}, publisher = {University of Kebansaan, Malaysia}, address = {Kuala Lumpur}, issn = {2232-1314}, doi = {10.24035/ijit.21.2022.223}, pages = {35 -- 45}, year = {2022}, abstract = {It is seen that the Alevi-Sunni relations are mostly shaped by the stereotyped perceptions of the two groups about each other. In particular, the fact that Alevism is a closed society due to the pressure they have experienced throughout history has prevented them from being perceived correctly. As such, it is seen that there are many misconceptions about Alevis and their rituals that do not match the reality but are accepted as correct by the society. Due to the lack of communication that could not be developed through this "unknown" in the historical process, Alevi-Sunni relations have always been open to manipulations. As a matter of fact, it is seen that Alevis' relations with Islam, the Djem ceremonies that form the basis of Alevism, and the content of Djem ceremonies have always remained a mystery to Sunnis. Unfortunately, this misperception also reflected negatively on the communication between the two groups. As it is known, if stereotypes arise when there is incorrect information about the target group, the best way to correct them is to create common contact environments that will bring individuals to the right information. Here in this article, the unknown Djem ritual and especially the Qur'anic verses that they refer to during the Djem ceremonies are discussed.}, language = {en} } @article{HeinrichBalanzateguiBensetal.2018, author = {Heinrich, Ingo and Balanzategui, Daniel and Bens, Oliver and Blasch, Gerald and Blume, Theresa and Boettcher, Falk and Borg, Erik and Brademann, Brian and Brauer, Achim and Conrad, Christopher and Dietze, Elisabeth and Dr{\"a}ger, Nadine and Fiener, Peter and Gerke, Horst H. and G{\"u}ntner, Andreas and Heine, Iris and Helle, Gerhard and Herbrich, Marcus and Harfenmeister, Katharina and Heussner, Karl-Uwe and Hohmann, Christian and Itzerott, Sibylle and Jurasinski, Gerald and Kaiser, Knut and Kappler, Christoph and Koebsch, Franziska and Liebner, Susanne and Lischeid, Gunnar and Merz, Bruno and Missling, Klaus Dieter and Morgner, Markus and Pinkerneil, Sylvia and Plessen, Birgit and Raab, Thomas and Ruhtz, Thomas and Sachs, Torsten and Sommer, Michael and Spengler, Daniel and Stender, Vivien and St{\"u}ve, Peter and Wilken, Florian}, title = {Interdisciplinary Geo-ecological Research across Time Scales in the Northeast German Lowland Observatory (TERENO-NE)}, series = {Vadose zone journal}, volume = {17}, journal = {Vadose zone journal}, number = {1}, publisher = {Soil Science Society of America}, address = {Madison}, issn = {1539-1663}, doi = {10.2136/vzj2018.06.0116}, pages = {25}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The Northeast German Lowland Observatory (TERENO-NE) was established to investigate the regional impact of climate and land use change. TERENO-NE focuses on the Northeast German lowlands, for which a high vulnerability has been determined due to increasing temperatures and decreasing amounts of precipitation projected for the coming decades. To facilitate in-depth evaluations of the effects of climate and land use changes and to separate the effects of natural and anthropogenic drivers in the region, six sites were chosen for comprehensive monitoring. In addition, at selected sites, geoarchives were used to substantially extend the instrumental records back in time. It is this combination of diverse disciplines working across different time scales that makes the observatory TERENO-NE a unique observation platform. We provide information about the general characteristics of the observatory and its six monitoring sites and present examples of interdisciplinary research activities at some of these sites. We also illustrate how monitoring improves process understanding, how remote sensing techniques are fine-tuned by the most comprehensive ground-truthing site DEMMIN, how soil erosion dynamics have evolved, how greenhouse gas monitoring of rewetted peatlands can reveal unexpected mechanisms, and how proxy data provides a long-term perspective of current ongoing changes.}, language = {en} } @article{MetinNguyenVietDungSchroeteretal.2018, author = {Metin, Ayse Duha and Nguyen Viet Dung, and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Guse, Bj{\"o}rn and Apel, Heiko and Kreibich, Heidi and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Merz, Bruno}, title = {How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk?}, series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, volume = {18}, journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, number = {11}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1561-8633}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-18-3089-2018}, pages = {3089 -- 3108}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the overall flood risk.}, language = {en} } @article{MetinDungSchroeteretal.2020, author = {Metin, Ayse Duha and Dung, Nguyen Viet and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Guse, Bj{\"o}rn and Kreibich, Heidi and Merz, Bruno}, title = {The role of spatial dependence for large-scale flood risk estimation}, series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, volume = {20}, journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, number = {4}, publisher = {European Geosciences Union (EGU) ; Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1561-8633}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-20-967-2020}, pages = {967 -- 979}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Flood risk assessments are typically based on scenarios which assume homogeneous return periods of flood peaks throughout the catchment. This assumption is unrealistic for real flood events and may bias risk estimates for specific return periods. We investigate how three assumptions about the spatial dependence affect risk estimates: (i) spatially homogeneous scenarios (complete dependence), (ii) spatially heterogeneous scenarios (modelled dependence) and (iii) spatially heterogeneous but uncorrelated scenarios (complete independence). To this end, the model chain RFM (regional flood model) is applied to the Elbe catchment in Germany, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of all flood generation processes, from the rainfall through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms. Different assumptions about the spatial dependence do not influence the expected annual damage (EAD); however, they bias the risk curve, i.e. the cumulative distribution function of damage. The widespread assumption of complete dependence strongly overestimates flood damage of the order of 100\% for return periods larger than approximately 200 years. On the other hand, for small and medium floods with return periods smaller than approximately 50 years, damage is underestimated. The overestimation aggravates when risk is estimated for larger areas. This study demonstrates the importance of representing the spatial dependence of flood peaks and damage for risk assessments.}, language = {en} } @article{KreibichDiBaldassarreVorogushynetal.2017, author = {Kreibich, Heidi and Di Baldassarre, Giuliano and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. and Apel, Heiko and Aronica, Giuseppe T. and Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten and Bouwer, Laurens M. and Bubeck, Philip and Caloiero, Tommaso and Chinh, Do T. and Cortes, Maria and Gain, Animesh K. and Giampa, Vincenzo and Kuhlicke, Christian and Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W. and Llasat, Maria Carmen and Mard, Johanna and Matczak, Piotr and Mazzoleni, Maurizio and Molinari, Daniela and Dung, Nguyen V. and Petrucci, Olga and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Slager, Kymo and Thieken, Annegret and Ward, Philip J. and Merz, Bruno}, title = {Adaptation to flood risk}, series = {Earth's Future}, volume = {5}, journal = {Earth's Future}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2328-4277}, doi = {10.1002/2017EF000606}, pages = {953 -- 965}, year = {2017}, abstract = {As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socioeconomic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur.}, language = {en} } @article{Dehnert2020, author = {Dehnert, Maik}, title = {Sustaining the current or pursuing the new}, series = {Business research}, volume = {13}, journal = {Business research}, publisher = {Springer Nature}, address = {Berlin}, issn = {1866-8658}, doi = {10.1007/s40685-020-00136-8}, pages = {43}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Digital transformation (DT) is a major challenge for traditional companies. Despite the term, DT is relatively new; its substance is not: a whole stream of research has examined the relationship between DT and firm performance with contradictory findings. Most of these studies have chosen a linear correlational approach, however, did not analyze the holistic interplay of DT dimensions, leading to firm performance. This applies especially to the mature financial services industry and the future perspectives of traditional financial service providers (FSP). Hence, it remains an open question for both research and practice what DT configurations have a positive impact on firm performance. Against this background, the aim of this exploratory study is to examine how DT dimensions are systemically connected to firm performance of incumbent FSP. Drawing on a qualitative-empirical research approach with case data from 83 FSP, we identify digital configurations along different levels of firm performance. Our findings suggest an evolution of digital configurations of FSP, leading to five empirical standard types from which only one managed to establish a profound basis of DT.}, language = {en} } @misc{SanchezSanzLaudenbachWeissetal.2023, author = {Sanchez Sanz, Arturo and Laudenbach, Beno{\^i}t and Weiß, Adrian and Werner, Eva and Stachon, Markus and Anders, Friedrich and Barthel, Christian and Berrens, Dominik and Avalli, Andrea and Vandewalle, Alexander and Ferrara, Pasquale and Pohl, Patrik}, title = {Spring Issue}, series = {thersites}, volume = {2023}, journal = {thersites}, number = {16}, editor = {Amb{\"u}hl, Annemarie and Carl{\`a}-Uhink, Filippo and Rollinger, Christian and Walde, Christine}, issn = {2364-7612}, doi = {10.34679/thersites.vol16}, year = {2023}, language = {en} } @article{InceogluShpritsHeinemannetal.2022, author = {Inceoglu, Fadil and Shprits, Yuri and Heinemann, Stephan G. and Bianco, Stefano}, title = {Identification of coronal holes on AIA/SDO images using unsupervised machine learning}, series = {The astrophysical journal : an international review of spectroscopy and astronomical physics}, volume = {930}, journal = {The astrophysical journal : an international review of spectroscopy and astronomical physics}, number = {2}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1538-4357}, doi = {10.3847/1538-4357/ac5f43}, pages = {11}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Through its magnetic activity, the Sun governs the conditions in Earth's vicinity, creating space weather events, which have drastic effects on our space- and ground-based technology. One of the most important solar magnetic features creating the space weather is the solar wind that originates from the coronal holes (CHs). The identification of the CHs on the Sun as one of the source regions of the solar wind is therefore crucial to achieve predictive capabilities. In this study, we used an unsupervised machine-learning method, k-means, to pixel-wise cluster the passband images of the Sun taken by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on the Solar Dynamics Observatory in 171, 193, and 211 angstrom in different combinations. Our results show that the pixel-wise k-means clustering together with systematic pre- and postprocessing steps provides compatible results with those from complex methods, such as convolutional neural networks. More importantly, our study shows that there is a need for a CH database where a consensus about the CH boundaries is reached by observers independently. This database then can be used as the "ground truth," when using a supervised method or just to evaluate the goodness of the models.}, language = {en} }