@article{VerweijNeyThompson2022, author = {Verweij, Marco and Ney, Steven and Thompson, Michael}, title = {Cultural Theory's contributions to climate science}, series = {European journal for philosophy of science}, volume = {12}, journal = {European journal for philosophy of science}, number = {2}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1879-4912}, doi = {10.1007/s13194-022-00464-y}, pages = {13}, year = {2022}, abstract = {In his article, 'Social constructionism and climate science denial', Hansson claims to present empirical evidence that the cultural theory developed by Dame Mary Douglas, Aaron Wildavsky and ourselves (among others) leads to (climate) science denial. In this reply, we show that there is no validity to these claims. First, we show that Hansson's empirical evidence that cultural theory has led to climate science denial falls apart under closer inspection. Contrary to Hansson's claims, cultural theory has made significant contributions to understanding and addressing climate change. Second, we discuss various features of Douglas' cultural theory that differentiate it from other constructivist approaches and make it compatible with the scientific method. Thus, we also demonstrate that cultural theory cannot be accused of epistemic relativism.}, language = {en} } @article{Vogel2022, author = {Vogel, Johannes}, title = {Drivers of phenological changes in southern Europe}, series = {International Journal of Biometeorology}, volume = {66}, journal = {International Journal of Biometeorology}, number = {9}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {0020-7128}, doi = {10.1007/s00484-022-02331-0}, pages = {1903 -- 1914}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The life cycle of plants is largely determined by climate, which renders phenological responses to climate change a highly suitable bioindicator of climate change. Yet, it remains unclear, which are the key drivers of phenological patterns at certain life stages. Furthermore, the varying responses of species belonging to different plant functional types are not fully understood. In this study, the role of temperature and precipitation as environmental drivers of phenological changes in southern Europe is assessed. The trends of the phenophases leaf unfolding, flowering, fruiting, and senescence are quantified, and the corresponding main environmental drivers are identified. A clear trend towards an earlier onset of leaf unfolding, flowering, and fruiting is detected, while there is no clear pattern for senescence. In general, the advancement of leaf unfolding, flowering and fruiting is smaller for deciduous broadleaf trees in comparison to deciduous shrubs and crops. Many broadleaf trees are photoperiod-sensitive; therefore, their comparatively small phenological advancements are likely the effect of photoperiod counterbalancing the impact of increasing temperatures. While temperature is identified as the main driver of phenological changes, precipitation also plays a crucial role in determining the onset of leaf unfolding and flowering. Phenological phases advance under dry conditions, which can be linked to the lack of transpirational cooling leading to rising temperatures, which subsequently accelerate plant growth.}, language = {en} } @article{ButerHeckmannFilisettietal.2022, author = {Buter, Anuschka and Heckmann, Tobias and Filisetti, Lorenzo and Savi, Sara and Mao, Luca and Gems, Bernhard and Comiti, Francesco}, title = {Effects of catchment characteristics and hydro-meteorological scenarios on sediment connectivity in glacierised catchments}, series = {Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology}, volume = {402}, journal = {Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0169-555X}, doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2022.108128}, pages = {17}, year = {2022}, abstract = {In the past decade, sediment connectivity has become a widely recognized characteristic of a geomorphic system. However, the quantification of functional connectivity (i.e. connectivity which arises due to the actual occurrence of sediment transport processes) and its variation over space and time is still a challenge. In this context, this study assesses the effects of expected future phenomena in the context of climate change (i.e. glacier retreat, permafrost degradation or meteorological extreme events) on sediment transport dynamics in a glacierised Alpine basin. The study area is the Sulden river basin (drainage area 130 km(2)) in the Italian Alps, which is composed of two geomorphologically diverse sub-basins. Based on graph theory, we evaluated the spatio-temporal variations in functional connectivity in these two sub-basins. The graph-object, obtained by manually mapping sediment transport processes between landforms, was adapted to 6 different hydro-meteorological scenarios, which derive from combining base, heatwave and rainstorm conditions with snowmelt and glacier-melt periods. For each scenario and each sub-basin, the sediment transport network and related catchment characteristics were analysed. To compare the effects of the scenarios on functional connectivity, we introduced a connectivity degree, calculated based on the area of the landforms involved in sediment cascades. Results indicate that the area of the basin connected to its outlet in terms of sediment transport might feature a six-fold increase in case of rainstorm conditions compared to "average " meteorological conditions assumed for the base scenario. Furthermore, markedly different effects of climate change on sediment connectivity are expected between the two sub-catchments due to their contrasting morphological and lithological characteristics, in terms of relative importance of rainfall triggered colluvial processes vs temperature-driven proglacial fluvial dynamics.}, language = {en} } @article{OeztuerkBozzolanHolcombeetal.2022, author = {{\"O}zt{\"u}rk, Ugur and Bozzolan, Elisa and Holcombe, Elizabeth A. and Shukla, Roopam and Pianosi, Francesca and Wagener, Thorsten}, title = {How climate change and unplanned urban sprawl bring more landslides}, series = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, volume = {608}, journal = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, number = {7922}, publisher = {Nature portfolio}, address = {Berlin}, issn = {0028-0836}, doi = {10.1038/d41586-022-02141-9}, pages = {262 -- 265}, year = {2022}, abstract = {More settlements will suffer as heavy rains and unregulated construction destabilize slopes in the tropics, models show.}, language = {en} } @article{KotzWenzStechemesseretal.2021, author = {Kotz, Maximilian and Wenz, Leonie and Stechemesser, Annika and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Day-to-day temperature variability reduces economic growth}, series = {Nature climate change}, volume = {11}, journal = {Nature climate change}, number = {4}, publisher = {Nature Publishing Group}, address = {London}, issn = {1758-678X}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-020-00985-5}, pages = {319 -- 325}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Elevated annual average temperature has been found to impact macro-economic growth. However, various fundamental elements of the economy are affected by deviations of daily temperature from seasonal expectations which are not well reflected in annual averages. Here we show that increases in seasonally adjusted day-to-day temperature variability reduce macro-economic growth independent of and in addition to changes in annual average temperature. Combining observed day-to-day temperature variability with subnational economic data for 1,537 regions worldwide over 40 years in fixed-effects panel models, we find that an extra degree of variability results in a five percentage-point reduction in regional growth rates on average. The impact of day-to-day variability is modulated by seasonal temperature difference and income, resulting in highest vulnerability in low-latitude, low-income regions (12 percentage-point reduction). These findings illuminate a new, global-impact channel in the climate-economy relationship that demands a more comprehensive assessment in both climate and integrated assessment models.}, language = {en} } @misc{VogelPatonAichetal.2021, author = {Vogel, Johannes and Paton, Eva and Aich, Valentin and Bronstert, Axel}, title = {Increasing compound warm spells and droughts in the Mediterranean Basin}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1127}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-49629}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-496294}, pages = {16}, year = {2021}, abstract = {The co-occurrence of warm spells and droughts can lead to detrimental socio-economic and ecological impacts, largely surpassing the impacts of either warm spells or droughts alone. We quantify changes in the number of compound warm spells and droughts from 1979 to 2018 in the Mediterranean Basin using the ERA5 data set. We analyse two types of compound events: 1) warm season compound events, which are extreme in absolute terms in the warm season from May to October and 2) year-round deseasonalised compound events, which are extreme in relative terms respective to the time of the year. The number of compound events increases significantly and especially warm spells are increasing strongly - with an annual growth rates of 3.9 (3.5) \% for warm season (deseasonalised) compound events and 4.6 (4.4) \% for warm spells -, whereas for droughts the change is more ambiguous depending on the applied definition. Therefore, the rise in the number of compound events is primarily driven by temperature changes and not the lack of precipitation. The months July and August show the highest increases in warm season compound events, whereas the highest increases of deseasonalised compound events occur in spring and early summer. This increase in deseasonalised compound events can potentially have a significant impact on the functioning of Mediterranean ecosystems as this is the peak phase of ecosystem productivity and a vital phenophase.}, language = {en} } @article{VogelPatonAichetal.2021, author = {Vogel, Johannes and Paton, Eva and Aich, Valentin and Bronstert, Axel}, title = {Increasing compound warm spells and droughts in the Mediterranean Basin}, series = {Weather and climate extremes}, volume = {32}, journal = {Weather and climate extremes}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {2212-0947}, doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2021.100312}, pages = {14}, year = {2021}, abstract = {The co-occurrence of warm spells and droughts can lead to detrimental socio-economic and ecological impacts, largely surpassing the impacts of either warm spells or droughts alone. We quantify changes in the number of compound warm spells and droughts from 1979 to 2018 in the Mediterranean Basin using the ERA5 data set. We analyse two types of compound events: 1) warm season compound events, which are extreme in absolute terms in the warm season from May to October and 2) year-round deseasonalised compound events, which are extreme in relative terms respective to the time of the year. The number of compound events increases significantly and especially warm spells are increasing strongly - with an annual growth rates of 3.9 (3.5) \% for warm season (deseasonalised) compound events and 4.6 (4.4) \% for warm spells -, whereas for droughts the change is more ambiguous depending on the applied definition. Therefore, the rise in the number of compound events is primarily driven by temperature changes and not the lack of precipitation. The months July and August show the highest increases in warm season compound events, whereas the highest increases of deseasonalised compound events occur in spring and early summer. This increase in deseasonalised compound events can potentially have a significant impact on the functioning of Mediterranean ecosystems as this is the peak phase of ecosystem productivity and a vital phenophase.}, language = {en} } @incollection{BronstertCrisologoHeistermannetal.2020, author = {Bronstert, Axel and Crisologo, Irene and Heistermann, Maik and {\"O}zt{\"u}rk, Ugur and Vogel, Kristin and Wendi, Dadiyorto}, title = {Flash-floods: more often, more severe, more damaging?}, series = {Climate change, hazards and adaptation options: handling the impacts of a changing climate}, booktitle = {Climate change, hazards and adaptation options: handling the impacts of a changing climate}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Cham}, isbn = {978-3-030-37425-9}, issn = {1610-2010}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-030-37425-9_12}, pages = {225 -- 244}, year = {2020}, abstract = {In recent years, urban and rural flash floods in Europe and abroad have gained considerable attention because of their sudden occurrence, severe material damages and even danger to life of inhabitants. This contribution addresses questions about possibly changing environmental conditions which might have altered the occurrence frequencies of such events and their consequences. We analyze the following major fields of environmental changes. Altered high intensity rain storm conditions, as a consequence of regionalwarming; Possibly altered runoff generation conditions in response to high intensity rainfall events; Possibly altered runoff concentration conditions in response to the usage and management of the landscape, such as agricultural, forest practices or rural roads; Effects of engineering measures in the catchment, such as retention basins, check dams, culverts, or river and geomorphological engineering measures. We take the flash-flood in Braunsbach, SW-Germany, as an example, where a particularly concise flash flood event occurred at the end of May 2016. This extreme cascading natural event led to immense damage in this particular village. The event is retrospectively analyzed with regard to meteorology, hydrology, geomorphology and damage to obtain a quantitative assessment of the processes and their development. The results show that it was a very rare rainfall event with extreme intensities, which in combination with catchment properties and altered environmental conditions led to extreme runoff, extreme debris flow and immense damages. Due to the complex and interacting processes, no single flood cause can be identified, since only the interplay of those led to such an event. We have shown that environmental changes are important, but-at least for this case study-even natural weather and hydrologic conditions would still have resulted in an extreme flash flood event.}, language = {en} } @article{LeinsBanitzGrimmetal.2020, author = {Leins, Johannes A. and Banitz, Thomas and Grimm, Volker and Drechsler, Martin}, title = {High-resolution PVA along large environmental gradients to model the combined effects of climate change and land use timing}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and systems ecology}, volume = {440}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and systems ecology}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109355}, pages = {15}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Both climate change and land use regimes affect the viability of populations, but they are often studied separately. Moreover, population viability analyses (PVAs) often ignore the effects of large environmental gradients and use temporal resolutions that are too coarse to take into account that different stages of a population's life cycle may be affected differently by climate change. Here, we present the High-resolution Large Environmental Gradient (HiLEG) model and apply it in a PVA with daily resolution based on daily climate projections for Northwest Germany. We used the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) as the target species and investigated (1) the effects of climate change on the viability and spatial distribution of the species, (2) the influence of the timing of grassland mowing on the species and (3) the interaction between the effects of climate change and grassland mowing. The stageand cohort-based model was run for the spatially differentiated environmental conditions temperature and soil moisture across the whole study region. We implemented three climate change scenarios and analyzed the population dynamics for four consecutive 20-year periods. Climate change alone would lead to an expansion of the regions suitable for the LMG, as warming accelerates development and due to reduced drought stress. However, in combination with land use, the timing of mowing was crucial, as this disturbance causes a high mortality rate in the aboveground life stages. Assuming the same date of mowing throughout the region, the impact on viability varied greatly between regions due to the different climate conditions. The regional negative effects of the mowing date can be divided into five phases: (1) In early spring, the populations were largely unaffected in all the regions; (2) between late spring and early summer, they were severely affected only in warm regions; (3) in summer, all the populations were severely affected so that they could hardly survive; (4) between late summer and early autumn, they were severely affected in cold regions; and (5) in autumn, the populations were equally affected across all regions. The duration and start of each phase differed slightly depending on the climate change scenario and simulation period, but overall, they showed the same pattern. Our model can be used to identify regions of concern and devise management recommendations. The model can be adapted to the life cycle of different target species, climate projections and disturbance regimes. We show with our adaption of the HiLEG model that high-resolution PVAs and applications on large environmental gradients can be reconciled to develop conservation strategies capable of dealing with multiple stressors.}, language = {en} } @misc{HudsonBotzenPoussinetal.2019, author = {Hudson, Paul and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Poussin, Jennifer and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.}, title = {Impacts of flooding and flood preparedness on subjective well-being}, series = {Journal of Happiness Studies}, volume = {20}, journal = {Journal of Happiness Studies}, number = {2}, publisher = {Springer Science}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1389-4978}, doi = {10.1007/s10902-017-9916-4}, pages = {665 -- 682}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Flood disasters severely impact human subjective well-being (SWB). Nevertheless, few studies have examined the influence of flood events on individual well-being and how such impacts may be limited by flood protection measures. This study estimates the long term impacts on individual subjective well-being of flood experiences, individual subjective flood risk perceptions, and household flood preparedness decisions. These effects are monetised and placed in context through a comparison with impacts of other adverse events on well-being. We collected data from households in flood-prone areas in France. The results indicate that experiencing a flood has a large negative impact on subjective well-being that is incompletely attenuated over time. Moreover, individuals do not need to be directly affected by floods to suffer SWB losses since subjective well-being is lower for those who expect their flood risk to increase or who have seen a neighbour being flooded. Floodplain inhabitants who prepared for flooding by elevating their home have a higher subjective well-being. A monetisation of the aforementioned well-being impacts shows that a flood requires Euro150,000 in immediate compensation to attenuate SWB losses. The decomposition of the monetised impacts of flood experience into tangible losses and intangible effects on SWB shows that intangible effects are about twice as large as the tangible direct monetary flood losses. Investments in flood protection infrastructure may be under funded if the intangible SWB benefits of flood protection are not taken into account.}, language = {en} } @article{LuisHorreoLuisaPelaezBreedveldetal.2019, author = {Luis Horreo, Jose and Luisa Pelaez, Maria and Breedveld, Merel Cathelijne and Suarez, Teresa and Urieta, Maria and Fitze, Patrick S.}, title = {Population structure of the oviparous South-West European common lizard}, series = {European journal of wildlife research}, volume = {65}, journal = {European journal of wildlife research}, number = {1}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {1612-4642}, doi = {10.1007/s10344-018-1242-6}, pages = {9}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Gene flow is an important factor determining the evolution of a species, since it directly affects population structure and species' adaptation. Here, we investigated population structure, population history, and migration among populations covering the entire distribution of the geographically isolated South-West European common lizard (Zootoca vivipara louislantzi) using 34 newly developed polymorphic microsatellite markers. The analyses unravelled the presence of isolation by distance, inbreeding, recent bottlenecks, genetic differentiation, and low levels of migration among most populations, suggesting that Z. vivipara louislantzi is threatened. The results point to discontinuous populations and are in line with physical barriers hindering longitudinal migration south to the central Pyrenean cordillera and latitudinal migration in the central Pyrenees. In contrast, evidence for longitudinal migration exists from the lowlands north to the central Pyrenean cordillera and the Cantabrian Mountains. The locations of the populations south to the central Pyrenean cordillera were identified as the first to be affected by global warming; thus, management actions aimed at avoiding population declines should start in this area.}, language = {en} } @misc{NitzeGrosseJonesetal.2019, author = {Nitze, Ingmar and Grosse, Guido and Jones, Benjamin M. and Romanovsky, Vladimir E. and Boike, Julia}, title = {Remote sensing quantifies widespread abundance of permafrost region disturbances across the Arctic and Subarctic}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {799}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-42617}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-426171}, pages = {11}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Local observations indicate that climate change and shifting disturbance regimes are causing permafrost degradation. However, the occurrence and distribution of permafrost region disturbances (PRDs) remain poorly resolved across the Arctic and Subarctic. Here we quantify the abundance and distribution of three primary PRDs using time-series analysis of 30-m resolution Landsat imagery from 1999 to 2014. Our dataset spans four continental-scale transects in North America and Eurasia, covering ~10\% of the permafrost region. Lake area loss (-1.45\%) dominated the study domain with enhanced losses occurring at the boundary between discontinuous and continuous permafrost regions. Fires were the most extensive PRD across boreal regions (6.59\%), but in tundra regions (0.63\%) limited to Alaska. Retrogressive thaw slumps were abundant but highly localized (<10-5\%). Our analysis synergizes the global-scale importance of PRDs. The findings highlight the need to include PRDs in next-generation land surface models to project the permafrost carbon feedback.}, language = {en} } @article{PiontekKalkuhlKriegleretal.2019, author = {Piontek, Franziska and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Kriegler, Elmar and Schultes, Anselm and Leimbach, Marian and Edenhofer, Ottmar and Bauer, Nico}, title = {Economic Growth Effects of Alternative Climate Change Impact Channels in Economic Modeling}, series = {Environmental \& resource economics : the official journal of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists}, volume = {73}, journal = {Environmental \& resource economics : the official journal of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists}, number = {4}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0924-6460}, doi = {10.1007/s10640-018-00306-7}, pages = {1357 -- 1385}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Despite increasing empirical evidence of strong links between climate and economic growth, there is no established model to describe the dynamics of how different types of climate shocks affect growth patterns. Here we present the first comprehensive, comparative analysis of the long-term dynamics of one-time, temporary climate shocks on production factors, and factor productivity, respectively, in a Ramsey-type growth model. Damages acting directly on production factors allow us to study dynamic effects on factor allocation, savings and economic growth. We find that the persistence of impacts on economic activity is smallest for climate shocks directly impacting output, and successively increases for direct damages on capital, loss of labor and productivity shocks, related to different responses in savings rates and factor-specific growth. Recurring shocks lead to large welfare effects and long-term growth effects, directly linked to the persistence of individual shocks. Endogenous savings and shock anticipation both have adaptive effects but do not eliminate differences between impact channels or significantly lower the dissipation time. Accounting for endogenous growth mechanisms increases the effects. We also find strong effects on income shares, important for distributional implications. This work fosters conceptual understanding of impact dynamics in growth models, opening options for links to empirics.}, language = {en} } @article{VehKorupvonSpechtetal.2019, author = {Veh, Georg and Korup, Oliver and von Specht, Sebastian and R{\"o}ßner, Sigrid and Walz, Ariane}, title = {Unchanged frequency of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalaya}, series = {Nature climate change}, volume = {9}, journal = {Nature climate change}, number = {5}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {1758-678X}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0437-5}, pages = {379 -- 383}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Shrinking glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya-Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have formed several thousand moraine-dammed glacial lakes(1-3), some of these having grown rapidly in past decades(3,4). This growth may promote more frequent and potentially destructive glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)(5-7). Testing this hypothesis, however, is confounded by incomplete databases of the few reliable, though selective, case studies. Here we present a consistent Himalayan GLOF inventory derived automatically from all available Landsat imagery since the late 1980s. We more than double the known GLOF count and identify the southern Himalayas as a hotspot region, compared to the more rarely affected Hindu Kush-Karakoram ranges. Nevertheless, the average annual frequency of 1.3 GLOFs has no credible posterior trend despite reported increases in glacial lake areas in most of the HKKHN3,8, so that GLOF activity per unit lake area has decreased since the late 1980s. We conclude that learning more about the frequency and magnitude of outburst triggers, rather than focusing solely on rapidly growing glacial lakes, might improve the appraisal of GLOF hazards.}, language = {en} } @article{BuergerPfisterBronstert2019, author = {B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Pfister, A. and Bronstert, Axel}, title = {Temperature-Driven Rise in Extreme Sub-Hourly Rainfall}, series = {Journal of climate}, volume = {32}, journal = {Journal of climate}, number = {22}, publisher = {American Meteorological Soc.}, address = {Boston}, issn = {0894-8755}, doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0136.1}, pages = {7597 -- 7609}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Estimates of present and future extreme sub-hourly rainfall are derived from a daily spatial followed by a sub-daily temporal downscaling, the latter of which incorporates a novel, and crucial, temperature sensitivity. Specifically, daily global climate fields are spatially downscaled to local temperature T and precipitation P, which are then disaggregated to a temporal resolution of 10 min using a multiplicative random cascade model. The scheme is calibrated and validated with a group of 21 station records of 10-min resolution in Germany. The cascade model is used in the classical (denoted as MC) and in the new T-sensitive (MC+) version, which respects local Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) effects such as CC scaling. Extreme P is positively biased in both MC versions. Observed T sensitivity is absent in MC but well reproduced by MC+. Long-term positive trends in extreme sub-hourly P are generally more pronounced and more significant in MC+ than in MC. In units of 10-min rainfall, observed centennial trends in annual exceedance counts (EC) of P > 5 mm are +29\% and in 3-yr return levels (RL) +27\%. For the RCP4.5-simulated future, higher extremes are projected in both versions MC and MC+: per century, EC increases by 30\% for MC and by 83\% for MC+; the RL rises by 14\% for MC and by 33\% for MC+. Because the projected daily P trends are negligible, the sub-daily signal is mainly driven by local temperature.}, language = {en} } @article{Hudson2018, author = {Hudson, Paul}, title = {A comparison of definitions of affordability for flood risk adaption measures}, series = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change : an international journal devoted to scientific, engineering, socio-economic and policy responses to environmental change}, volume = {23}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change : an international journal devoted to scientific, engineering, socio-economic and policy responses to environmental change}, number = {7}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1381-2386}, doi = {10.1007/s11027-017-9769-5}, pages = {1019 -- 1038}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Risk-based insurance is a commonly proposed and discussed flood risk adaptation mechanism in policy debates across the world such as in the United Kingdom and the United States of America. However, both risk-based premiums and growing risk pose increasing difficulties for insurance to remain affordable. An empirical concept of affordability is required as the affordability of adaption strategies is an important concern for policymakers, yet such a concept is not often examined. Therefore, a robust metric with a commonly acceptable affordability threshold is required. A robust metric allows for a previously normative concept to be quantified in monetary terms, and in this way, the metric is rendered more suitable for integration into public policy debates. This paper investigates the degree to which risk-based flood insurance premiums are unaffordable in Europe. In addition, this paper compares the outcomes generated by three different definitions of unaffordability in order to investigate the most robust definition. In doing so, the residual income definition was found to be the least sensitive to changes in the threshold. While this paper focuses on Europe, the selected definition can be employed elsewhere in the world and across adaption measures in order to develop a common metric for indicating the potential unaffordability problem.}, language = {en} } @article{OguntundeLischeidAbiodun2018, author = {Oguntunde, Philip G. and Lischeid, Gunnar and Abiodun, Babatunde Joseph}, title = {Impacts of climate variability and change on drought characteristics in the Niger River Basin, West Africa}, series = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment}, volume = {32}, journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment}, number = {4}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {1436-3240}, doi = {10.1007/s00477-017-1484-y}, pages = {1017 -- 1034}, year = {2018}, abstract = {West Africa has been afflicted by droughts since the declining rains of the 1970s. Therefore, this study examines the characteristics of drought over the Niger River Basin (NRB), investigates the influence of the drought on the river flow, and projects the impacts of future climate change on drought. A combination of observation data and regional climate simulations of past (1986-2005) and future climates (2046-2065 and 2081-2100) were analyzed. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were used to characterize drought while the standardized runoff index (SRI) was used to quantify river flow. Results of the study show that the historical pattern of drought is consistent with previous studies over the Basin and most part of West Africa. RCA4 ensemble gives realistic simulations of the climatology of the Basin in the past climate. Generally, an increase in drought intensity and frequency are projected over NRB. The coupling between SRI and drought indices was very strong (P < 0.05). The dominant peaks can be classified into three distinct drought cycles with periods 1-2, 2-4, 4-8 years. These cycles may be associated with Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). River flow was highly sensitive to precipitation in the NRB and a 1-3 month lead time was found between drought indices and SRI. Under RCP4.5, changes in the SPEI drought frequency range from 1.8 (2046-2065) to 2.4 (2081-2100) month year(-1) while under RCP8.5, the change ranges from 2.2 (2046-2065) to 3.0 month year(-1) (2081-2100). Niger Middle sub-basin is likely to be mostly impacted in the future while the Upper Niger was projected to be least impacted. Results of this study may guide policymakers to evolve strategies to facilitate vulnerability assessment and adaptive capacity of the basin in order to minimize the negative impacts of climate change.}, language = {en} } @article{UnterbergerHudsonBotzenetal.2018, author = {Unterberger, Christian and Hudson, Paul and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Schroeer, Katharina and Steininger, Karl W.}, title = {Future public sector flood risk and risk sharing arrangements}, series = {Ecological economics}, volume = {156}, journal = {Ecological economics}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0921-8009}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.09.019}, pages = {153 -- 163}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Climate change, along with socio-economic development, will increase the economic impacts of floods. While the factors that influence flood risk to private property have been extensively studied, the risk that natural disasters pose to public infrastructure and the resulting implications on public sector budgets, have received less attention. We address this gap by developing a two-staged model framework, which first assesses the flood risk to public infrastructure in Austria. Combining exposure and vulnerability information at the building level with inundation maps, we project an increase in riverine flood damage, which progressively burdens public budgets. Second, the risk estimates are integrated into an insurance model, which analyzes three different compensation arrangements in terms of the monetary burden they place on future governments' budgets and the respective volatility of payments. Formalized insurance compensation arrangements offer incentives for risk reduction measures, which lower the burden on public budgets by reducing the vulnerability of buildings that are exposed to flooding. They also significantly reduce the volatility of payments and thereby improve the predictability of flood damage expenditures. These features indicate that more formalized insurance arrangements are an improvement over the purely public compensation arrangement currently in place in Austria.}, language = {en} } @misc{LawrenceSchaeferMurietal.2018, author = {Lawrence, Mark and Sch{\"a}fer, Stefan and Muri, Helene and Scott, Vivian and Oschlies, Andreas and Vaughan, Naomi E. and Boucher, Olivier and Schmidt, Hauke and Haywood, Jim and Scheffran, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Evaluating climate geoengineering proposals in the context of the Paris Agreement temperature goals}, series = {Nature Communications}, volume = {9}, journal = {Nature Communications}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {2041-1723}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-05938-3}, pages = {19}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Current mitigation efforts and existing future commitments are inadequate to accomplish the Paris Agreement temperature goals. In light of this, research and debate are intensifying on the possibilities of additionally employing proposed climate geoengineering technologies, either through atmospheric carbon dioxide removal or farther-reaching interventions altering the Earth's radiative energy budget. Although research indicates that several techniques may eventually have the physical potential to contribute to limiting climate change, all are in early stages of development, involve substantial uncertainties and risks, and raise ethical and governance dilemmas. Based on present knowledge, climate geoengineering techniques cannot be relied on to significantly contribute to meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goals.}, language = {en} } @article{OguntundeAbiodunLischeid2017, author = {Oguntunde, Philip G. and Abiodun, Babatunde Joseph and Lischeid, Gunnar}, title = {Impacts of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought over the Volta Basin, West Africa}, series = {Global and planetary change}, volume = {155}, journal = {Global and planetary change}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0921-8181}, doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.07.003}, pages = {121 -- 132}, year = {2017}, abstract = {This study examines the characteristics of drought in the Volta River Basin (VRB), investigates the influence of drought on the streamflow, and projects the impacts of future climate change on the drought. A combination of observation data and regional climate simulations of past and future climates (1970-2013, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100) were analyzed for the study. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (SPEI) were used to characterize drought while the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) were used to quantify runoff. Results of the study show that the historical pattern of drought is generally consistent with previous studies over the Basin and most part of West Africa. RCA ensemble medians (RMED) give realistic simulations of drought characteristics and area extent over the Basin and the sub-catchments in the past climate. Generally, an increase in drought intensity and spatial extent are projected over VRB for SPEI and SPI, but the magnitude of increase is higher with SPEI than with SPI. Drought frequency (events per decade) may be magnified by a factor of 1.2, (2046-2065) to 1.6 (2081-2100) compared to the present day episodes in the basin. The coupling between streamflow and drought episodes was very strong (P < 0.05) for the 1-16-year band before the 1970 but showed strong correlation all through the time series period for the 4-8 -years band. Runoff was highly sensitive to precipitation in the VRB and a 2-3 month time lag was found between drought indices and streamflow in the Volta River Basin. Results of this study may guide policymakers in planning how to minimize the negative impacts of future climate change that could have consequences on agriculture, water resources and energy supply.}, language = {en} }