@phdthesis{Martin2013, author = {Martin, Benjamin}, title = {Linking individual-based models and dynamic energy budget theory : lessons for ecology and ecotoxicology}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-67001}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2013}, abstract = {In the context of ecological risk assessment of chemicals, individual-based population models hold great potential to increase the ecological realism of current regulatory risk assessment procedures. However, developing and parameterizing such models is time-consuming and often ad hoc. Using standardized, tested submodels of individual organisms would make individual-based modelling more efficient and coherent. In this thesis, I explored whether Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory is suitable for being used as a standard submodel in individual-based models, both for ecological risk assessment and theoretical population ecology. First, I developed a generic implementation of DEB theory in an individual-based modeling (IBM) context: DEB-IBM. Using the DEB-IBM framework I tested the ability of the DEB theory to predict population-level dynamics from the properties of individuals. We used Daphnia magna as a model species, where data at the individual level was available to parameterize the model, and population-level predictions were compared against independent data from controlled population experiments. We found that DEB theory successfully predicted population growth rates and peak densities of experimental Daphnia populations in multiple experimental settings, but failed to capture the decline phase, when the available food per Daphnia was low. Further assumptions on food-dependent mortality of juveniles were needed to capture the population dynamics after the initial population peak. The resulting model then predicted, without further calibration, characteristic switches between small- and large-amplitude cycles, which have been observed for Daphnia. We conclude that cross-level tests help detecting gaps in current individual-level theories and ultimately will lead to theory development and the establishment of a generic basis for individual-based models and ecology. In addition to theoretical explorations, we tested the potential of DEB theory combined with IBMs to extrapolate effects of chemical stress from the individual to population level. For this we used information at the individual level on the effect of 3,4-dichloroanailine on Daphnia. The individual data suggested direct effects on reproduction but no significant effects on growth. Assuming such direct effects on reproduction, the model was able to accurately predict the population response to increasing concentrations of 3,4-dichloroaniline. We conclude that DEB theory combined with IBMs holds great potential for standardized ecological risk assessment based on ecological models.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Holsten2013, author = {Holsten, Anne}, title = {Climate change vulnerability assessments in the regional context}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-66836}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Adapting sectors to new conditions under climate change requires an understanding of regional vulnerabilities. Conceptually, vulnerability is defined as a function of sensitivity and exposure, which determine climate impacts, and adaptive capacity of a system. Vulnerability assessments for quantifying these components have become a key tool within the climate change field. However, there is a disagreement on how to make the concept operational in studies from a scientific perspective. This conflict leads to many still unsolved challenges, especially regarding the quantification and aggregation of the components and their suitable level of complexity. This thesis therefore aims at advancing the scientific foundation of such studies by translating the concept of vulnerability into a systematic assessment structure. This includes all components and implies that for each considered impact (e.g. flash floods) a clear sensitive entity is defined (e.g. settlements) and related to a direction of change for a specific climatic stimulus (e.g. increasing impact due to increasing days with heavy precipitation). Regarding the challenging aggregation procedure, two alternative methods allowing a cross-sectoral overview are introduced and their advantages and disadvantages discussed. This assessment structure is subsequently exemplified for municipalities of the German state North Rhine-Westphalia via an indicator-based deductive approach using information from literature. It can be transferred also to other regions. As for many relevant sectors, suitable indicators to express the vulnerability components are lacking, new quantification methods are developed and applied in this thesis, for example for the forestry and health sector. A lack of empirical data on relevant thresholds is evident, for example which climatic changes would cause significant impacts. Consequently, the multi-sectoral study could only provide relative measures for each municipality, in relation to the region. To fill this gap, an exemplary sectoral study was carried out on windthrow impacts in forests to provide an absolute quantification of the present and future impact. This is achieved by formulating an empirical relation between the forest characteristics and damage based on data from a past storm event. The resulting measure indicating the sensitivity is then combined with wind conditions. Multi-sectoral vulnerability assessments require considerable resources, which often hinders the implementation. Thus, in a next step, the potential for reducing the complexity is explored. To predict forest fire occurrence, numerous meteorological indices are available, spanning over a range of complexity. Comparing their performance, the single variable relative humidity outperforms complex indicators for most German states in explaining the monthly fire pattern. This is the case albeit it is itself an input factor in most indices. Thus, this meteorological factor alone is well suited to evaluate forest fire danger in many Germany regions and allows a resource-efficient assessment. Similarly, the complexity of methods is assessed regarding the application of the ecohydrological model SWIM to the German region of Brandenburg. The inter-annual soil moisture levels simulated by this model can only poorly be represented by simpler statistical approach using the same input data. However, on a decadal time horizon, the statistical approach shows a good performance and a strong dominance of the soil characteristic field capacity. This points to a possibility to reduce the input factors for predicting long-term averages, but the results are restricted by a lack of empirical data on soil water for validation. The presented assessments of vulnerability and its components have shown that they are still a challenging scientific undertaking. Following the applied terminology, many problems arise when implementing it for regional studies. Advances in addressing shortcomings of previous studies have been made by constructing a new systematic structure for characterizing and aggregating vulnerability components. For this, multiple approaches were presented, but they have specific advantages and disadvantages, which should also be carefully considered in future studies. There is a potential to simplify some methods, but more systematic assessments on this are needed. Overall, this thesis strengthened the use of vulnerability assessments as a tool to support adaptation by enhancing their scientific basis.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Dubinovska2013, author = {Dubinovska, Daria}, title = {Optical surveys of AGN and their host galaxies}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-64739}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2013}, abstract = {This thesis rests on two large Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) surveys. The first survey deals with galaxies that host low-level AGNs (LLAGN) and aims at identifying such galaxies by quantifying their variability. While numerous studies have shown that AGNs can be variable at all wavelengths, the nature of the variability is still not well understood. Studying the properties of LLAGNs may help to understand better galaxy evolution, and how AGNs transit between active and inactive states. In this thesis, we develop a method to extract variability properties of AGNs. Using multi-epoch deep photometric observations, we subtract the contribution of the host galaxy at each epoch to extract variability and estimate AGN accretion rates. This pipeline will be a powerful tool in connection with future deep surveys such as PANSTARS. The second study in this thesis describes a survey of X-ray selected AGN hosts at redshifts z>1.5 and compares them to quiescent galaxies. This survey aims at studying environments, sizes and morphologies of star-forming high-redshift AGN hosts in the COSMOS Survey at the epoch of peak AGN activity. Between redshifts 1.51.5 to date. We analyzed the evolution of structural parameters of AGN and non-AGN host galaxies with redshift, and compared their disturbance rates to identify the more probable AGN triggering mechanism in the 43.5