@techreport{BruttelEisenkopfNithammer2024, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Bruttel, Lisa Verena and Eisenkopf, Gerald and Nithammer, Juri}, title = {Pre-election communication in public good games with endogenous leaders}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {73}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-62395}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-623952}, pages = {28}, year = {2024}, abstract = {Leadership plays an important role for the efficient and fair solution of social dilemmas but the effectiveness of a leader can vary substantially. Two main factors of leadership impact are the ability to induce high contributions by all group members and the (expected) fair use of power. Participants in our experiment decide about contributions to a public good. After all contributions are made, the leader can choose how much of the joint earnings to assign to herself; the remainder is distributed equally among the followers. Using machine learning techniques, we study whether the content of initial open statements by the group members predicts their behavior as a leader and whether groups are able to identify such clues and endogenously appoint a "good" leader to solve the dilemma. We find that leaders who promise fairness are more likely to behave fairly, and that followers appoint as leaders those who write more explicitly about fairness and efficiency. However, in their contribution decision, followers focus on the leader's first-move contribution and place less importance on the content of the leader's statements.}, language = {en} } @techreport{EstrinKhavulKritikosetal.2024, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Estrin, Saul and Khavul, Susanna and Kritikos, Alexander and L{\"o}her, Jonas}, title = {Access to digital finance}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {72}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-62326}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-623261}, pages = {27}, year = {2024}, abstract = {Financing entrepreneurship spurs innovation and economic growth. Digital financial platforms that crowdfund equity for entrepreneurs have emerged globally, yet they remain poorly understood. We model equity crowdfunding in terms of the relationship between the number of investors and the amount of money raised per pitch. We examine heterogeneity in the average amount raised per pitch that is associated with differences across three countries and seven platforms. Using a novel dataset of successful fundraising on the most prominent platforms in the UK, Germany, and the USA, we find the underlying relationship between the number of investors and the amount of money raised for entrepreneurs is loglinear, with a coefficient less than one and concave to the origin. We identify significant variation in the average amount invested in each pitch across countries and platforms. Our findings have implications for market actors as well as regulators who set competitive frameworks.}, language = {en} } @techreport{GraeberHilbertKoenig2023, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Graeber, Daniel and Hilbert, Viola and K{\"o}nig, Johannes}, title = {Inequality of Opportunity in Wealth}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {69}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-60967}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-609673}, pages = {54}, year = {2023}, abstract = {While inequality of opportunity (IOp) in earnings is well studied, the literature on IOp in individual net wealth is scarce to non-existent. This is problematic because both theoretical and empirical evidence show that the position in the wealth and income distribution can significantly diverge.We measure ex-ante IOp in net wealth for Germany using data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). Ex-ante IOp is defined as the contribution of circumstances to the inequality in net wealth before effort is exerted. The SOEP allows for a direct mapping from individual circumstances to individual net wealth and for a detailed decomposition of net wealth inequality into a variety of circumstances; among them childhood background, intergenerational transfers, and regional characteristics. The ratio of inequality of opportunity to total inequality is stable from 2002 to 2019. This is in sharp contrast to labor earnings, where ex-ante IOp is declining over time. Our estimates suggest that about 62\% of the inequality in net wealth is due to circumstances. The most important circumstances are intergenerational transfers, parental occupation, and the region of birth. In contrast, gender and individuals' own education are the most important circumstances for earnings.}, language = {en} } @techreport{AmorosoHerrmannKritikos2023, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Amoroso, Sara and Herrmann, Benedikt and Kritikos, Alexander}, title = {The Role of Regulation and Regional Government Quality for High Growth Firms}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {71}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-61277}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-612771}, pages = {32}, year = {2023}, abstract = {High growth firms (HGFs) are important for job creation and considered to be precursors of economic growth. We investigate how formal institutions, like product- and labor-market regulations, as well as the quality of regional governments that implement these regulations, affect HGF development across European regions. Using data from Eurostat, OECD, WEF, and Gothenburg University, we show that both regulatory stringency and the quality of the regional government influence the regional shares of HGFs. More importantly, we find that the effect of labor- and product-market regulations ultimately depends on the quality of regional governments: in regions with high quality of government, the share of HGFs is neither affected by the level of product market regulation, nor by more or less flexibility in hiring and firing practices. Our findings contribute to the debate on the effects of regulations by showing that regulations are not, per se, "good, bad, and ugly", rather their impact depends on the efficiency of regional governments. Our paper offers important building blocks to develop tailored policy measures that may influence the development of HGFs in a region.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KalkuhlFranksGruneretal.2023, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Franks, Max and Gruner, Friedemann and Lessmann, Kai and Edenhofer, Ottmar}, title = {Pigou's Advice and Sisyphus' Warning}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {62}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-57588}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-575882}, pages = {66}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere is becoming an important option to achieve net zero climate targets. This paper develops a welfare and public economics perspective on optimal policies for carbon removal and storage in non-permanent sinks like forests, soil, oceans, wood products or chemical products. We derive a new metric for the valuation of non-permanent carbon storage, the social cost of carbon removal (SCC-R), which embeds also the conventional social cost of carbon emissions. We show that the contribution of CDR is to create new carbon sinks that should be used to reduce transition costs, even if the stored carbon is released to the atmosphere eventually. Importantly, CDR does not raise the ambition of optimal temperature levels unless initial atmospheric carbon stocks are excessively high. For high initial atmospheric carbon stocks, CDR allows to reduce the optimal temperature below initial levels. Finally, we characterize three different policy regimes that ensure an optimal deployment of carbon removal: downstream carbon pricing, upstream carbon pricing, and carbon storage pricing. The policy regimes differ in their informational and institutional requirements regarding monitoring, liability and financing.}, language = {en} } @techreport{CaliendoKritikosStier2022, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Caliendo, Marco and Kritikos, Alexander and Stier, Claudia}, title = {The Influence of Start-up Motivation on Entrepreneurial Performance}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {59}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-57115}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-571152}, pages = {43}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Predicting entrepreneurial development based on individual and business-related characteristics is a key objective of entrepreneurship research. In this context, we investigate whether the motives of becoming an entrepreneur influence the subsequent entrepreneurial development. In our analysis, we examine a broad range of business outcomes including survival and income, as well as job creation, expansion and innovation activities for up to 40 months after business formation. Using self-determination theory as conceptual background, we aggregate the start-up motives into a continuous motivational index. We show - based on a unique dataset of German start-ups from unemployment and non-unemployment - that the later business performance is better, the higher they score on this index. Effects are particularly strong for growth oriented outcomes like innovation and expansion activities. In a next step, we examine three underlying motivational categories that we term opportunity, career ambition, and necessity. We show that individuals driven by opportunity motives perform better in terms of innovation and business expansion activities, while career ambition is positively associated with survival, income, and the probability of hiring employees. All effects are robust to the inclusion of a large battery of covariates that are proven to be important determinants of entrepreneurial performance.}, language = {en} } @techreport{BruttelBulutayCornandetal.2022, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Bruttel, Lisa Verena and Bulutay, Muhammed and Cornand, Camille and Heinemann, Frank and Zylbersztejn, Adam}, title = {Measuring strategic-uncertainty attitudes}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {54}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-56234}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-562340}, pages = {40}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Strategic uncertainty is the uncertainty that players face with respect to the purposeful behavior of other players in an interactive decision situation. Our paper develops a new method for measuring strategic-uncertainty attitudes and distinguishing them from risk and ambiguity attitudes. We vary the source of uncertainty (whether strategic or not) across conditions in a ceteris paribus manner. We elicit certainty equivalents of participating in two strategic 2x2 games (a stag-hunt and a market-entry game) as well as certainty equivalents of related lotteries that yield the same possible payoffs with exogenously given probabilities (risk) and lotteries with unknown probabilities (ambiguity). We provide a structural model of uncertainty attitudes that allows us to measure a preference for or an aversion against the source of uncertainty, as well as optimism or pessimism regarding the desired outcome. We document systematic attitudes towards strategic uncertainty that vary across contexts. Under strategic complementarity [substitutability], the majority of participants tend to be pessimistic [optimistic] regarding the desired outcome. However, preferences for the source of uncertainty are distributed around zero.}, language = {en} } @techreport{BlockKritikosPriemetal.2022, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Block, J{\"o}rn and Kritikos, Alexander and Priem, Maximilian and Stiel, Caroline}, title = {Emergency-Aid for Self-employed in the Covid-19 Pandemic}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {55}, address = {Potsdam}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-56268}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-562688}, pages = {41}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The self-employed faced strong income losses during the Covid-19 pandemic. Many governments introduced programs to financially support the self-employed during the pandemic, including Germany. The German Ministry for Economic Affairs announced a €50bn emergency-aid program in March 2020, offering one-off lump-sum payments of up to €15,000 to those facing substantial revenue declines. By reassuring the self- employed that the government 'would not let them down' during the crisis, the program had also the important aim of motivating the self-employed to get through the crisis. We investigate whether the program affected the confidence of the self-employed to survive the crisis using real-time online-survey data comprising more than 20,000 observations. We employ propensity score matching, making use of a rich set of variables that influence the subjective survival probability as main outcome measure. We observe that this program had significant effects, with the subjective survival probability of the self- employed being moderately increased. We reveal important effect heterogeneities with respect to education, industries, and speed of payment. Notably, positive effects only occur among those self-employed whose application was processed quickly. This suggests stress-induced waiting costs due to the uncertainty associated with the administrative processing and the overall pandemic situation. Our findings have policy implications for the design of support programs, while also contributing to the literature on the instruments and effects of entrepreneurship policy interventions in crisis situations.}, language = {en} } @techreport{BacheletKalkuhlKoch2022, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Bachelet, Marion and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Koch, Nicolas}, title = {What if working from home will stick?}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {41}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-53238}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-532384}, pages = {28}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The COVID-19 pandemic created the largest experiment in working from home. We study how persistent telework may change energy and transport consumption and costs in Germany to assess the distributional and environmental implications when working from home will stick. Based on data from the German Microcensus and available classifications of working-from-home feasibility for different occupations, we calculate the change in energy consumption and travel to work when 15\% of employees work full time from home. Our findings suggest that telework translates into an annual increase in heating energy expenditure of 110 euros per worker and a decrease in transport expenditure of 840 euros per worker. All income groups would gain from telework but high-income workers gain twice as much as low-income workers. The value of time saving is between 1.3 and 6 times greater than the savings from reduced travel costs and almost 9 times higher for high-income workers than low-income workers. The direct effects on CO₂ emissions due to reduced car commuting amount to 4.5 millions tons of CO₂, representing around 3 percent of carbon emissions in the transport sector.}, language = {en} } @techreport{CaliendoKuennMahlstedt2022, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Caliendo, Marco and K{\"u}nn, Steffen and Mahlstedt, Robert}, title = {The Intended and Unintended Effects of Promoting Labor Market Mobility}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-53522}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-535229}, pages = {49}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Subsidizing the geographical mobility of unemployed workers may improve welfare by relaxing their financial constraints and allowing them to find jobs in more prosperous regions. We exploit regional variation in the promotion of mobility programs along administrative borders of German employment agency districts to investigate the causal effect of offering such financial incentives on the job search behavior and labor market integration of unemployed workers. We show that promoting mobility - as intended - causes job seekers to increase their search radius, apply for and accept distant jobs. At the same time, local job search is reduced with adverse consequences for reemployment and earnings. These unintended negative effects are provoked by spatial search frictions. Overall, the unconditional provision of mobility programs harms the welfare of unemployed job seekers.}, language = {en} } @techreport{EydamDiluiso2022, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Eydam, Ulrich and Diluiso, Francesca}, title = {How to Redistribute the Revenues from Climate Policy?}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {45}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-54896}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-548960}, pages = {32}, year = {2022}, abstract = {In light of climate change mitigation efforts, revenues from climate policies are growing, with no consensus yet on how they should be used. Potential efficiency gains from reducing distortionary taxes and the distributional implications of different revenue recycling schemes are currently debated. To account for households heterogeneity and dynamic trade-offs, we study the macroeconomic and welfare performance of different revenue recycling schemes using an Environmental Two-Agent New-Keynesian model, calibrated on the German economy. We find that, in the long run, welfare gains are higher when revenues are used to reduce distortionary taxes on capital, but this comes at the cost of higher inequality: while all households prefer labor income tax reductions to lump-sum transfers, only financially unconstrained households are better off when reducing taxes on capital income. Interestingly, we find that over the transition period relevant to meet short-medium run climate targets, labor income tax cuts are the most efficient and equitable instrument.}, language = {en} } @techreport{MatthewesVentura2022, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Matthewes, S{\"o}nke Hendrik and Ventura, Guglielmo}, title = {On Track to Success?}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {58}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-56725}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-567253}, pages = {70}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Many countries consider expanding vocational curricula in secondary education to boost skills and labour market outcomes among non-university-bound students. However, critics fear this could divert other students from more profitable academic education. We study labour market returns to vocational education in England, where until recently students chose between a vocational track, an academic track and quitting education at age 16. Identification is challenging because self-selection is strong and because students' next-best alternatives are unknown. Against this back- drop, we leverage multiple instrumental variables to estimate margin-specific treatment effects, i.e., causal returns to vocational education for students at the margin with academic education and, separately, for students at the margin with quitting education. Identification comes from variation in distance to the nearest vocational provider conditional on distance to the nearest academic provider (and vice-versa), while controlling for granular student, school and neighbourhood characteristics. The analysis is based on population-wide administrative education data linked to tax records. We find that the vast majority of marginal vocational students are indifferent be- tween vocational and academic education. For them, vocational enrolment substantially decreases earnings at age 30. This earnings penalty grows with age and is due to wages, not employment. However, consistent with comparative advantage, the penalty is smaller for students with higher revealed preferences for the vocational track. For the few students at the margin with no further education, we find merely tentative evidence of increased employment and earnings from vocational enrolment.}, language = {en} } @techreport{HunoldPetrishcheva2022, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Hunold, Matthias and Petrishcheva, Vasilisa}, title = {Foreclosure and Tunneling with Partial Vertical Ownership}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {57}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-56560}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-565601}, pages = {47}, year = {2022}, abstract = {We demonstrate how the incentives of firms that partially own their suppliers or customers to foreclose rivals depend on how the partial owner can extract profits from the target (tunneling). Compared to a fully vertically integrated firm, a partial owner may obtain only a share of the target's profit but influence the target's strategy significantly. We show that the incentives for customer and input foreclosure can be higher, equal, or even lower with partial ownership than with a vertical merger, depending on how the protection of minority shareholders and transfer price regulations affect the scope for profit extraction.}, language = {en} } @techreport{CaliendoCobbClarkPfeiferetal.2022, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Caliendo, Marco and Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. and Pfeifer, Harald and Uhlendorff, Arne and Wehner, Caroline}, title = {Managers' Risk Preferences and Firm Training Investments}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {44}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-53843}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-538439}, pages = {45}, year = {2022}, abstract = {We provide the first estimates of the impact of managers' risk preferences on their training allocation decisions. Our conceptual framework links managers' risk preferences to firms' training decisions through the bonuses they expect to receive. Risk-averse managers are expected to select workers with low turnover risk and invest in specific rather than general training. Empirical evidence supporting these predictions is provided using a novel vignette study embedded in a nationally representative survey of firm managers. Risk-tolerant and risk-averse decision makers have significantly different training preferences. Risk aversion results in increased sensitivity to turnover risk. Managers who are risk-averse offer significantly less general training and, in some cases, are more reluctant to train workers with a history of job mobility. All managers, irrespective of their risk preferences, are sensitive to the investment risk associated with training, avoiding training that is more costly or targets those with less occupational expertise or nearing retirement. This suggests the risks of training are primarily due to the risk that trained workers will leave the firm (turnover risk) rather than the risk that the benefits of training do not outweigh the costs (investment risk).}, language = {en} } @techreport{CaliendoGraeberKritikosetal.2022, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Caliendo, Marco and Graeber, Daniel and Kritikos, Alexander and Seebauer, Johannes}, title = {Pandemic Depression: COVID-19 and the Mental Health of the Self-Employed}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {46}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-54899}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-548999}, pages = {65}, year = {2022}, abstract = {We investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on self-employed people's mental health. Using representative longitudinal survey data from Germany, we reveal differential effects by gender: whereas self-employed women experienced a substantial deterioration in their mental health, self-employed men displayed no significant changes up to early 2021. Financial losses are important in explaining these differences. In addition, we find larger mental health responses among self-employed women who were directly affected by government-imposed restrictions and bore an increased childcare burden due to school and daycare closures. We also find that self-employed individuals who are more resilient coped better with the crisis.}, language = {en} } @techreport{BorckOshiroSatō2022, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Borck, Rainald and Oshiro, Jun and Satō, Yasuhiro}, title = {Property tax competition}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-56222}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-562228}, pages = {71}, year = {2022}, abstract = {We develop a model of property taxation and characterize equilibria under three alternative taxa-tion regimes often used in the public finance literature: decentralized taxation, centralized taxation, and "rent seeking" regimes. We show that decentralized taxation results in inefficiently high tax rates, whereas centralized taxation yields a common optimal tax rate, and tax rates in the rent-seeking regime can be either inefficiently high or low. We quantify the effects of switching from the observed tax system to the three regimes for Japan and Germany. The decentralized or rent-seeking regime best describes the Japanese tax system, whereas the centralized regime does so for Germany. We also quantify the welfare effects of regime changes.}, language = {en} } @techreport{AndresBruttelFriedrichsen2022, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Andres, Maximilian and Bruttel, Lisa Verena and Friedrichsen, Jana}, title = {How communication makes the difference between a cartel and tacit collusion}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-56223}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-562234}, pages = {67}, year = {2022}, abstract = {This paper sheds new light on the role of communication for cartel formation. Using machine learning to evaluate free-form chat communication among firms in a laboratory experiment, we identify typical communication patterns for both explicit cartel formation and indirect attempts to collude tacitly. We document that firms are less likely to communicate explicitly about price fixing and more likely to use indirect messages when sanctioning institutions are present. This effect of sanctions on communication reinforces the direct cartel-deterring effect of sanctions as collusion is more difficult to reach and sustain without an explicit agreement. Indirect messages have no, or even a negative, effect on prices.}, language = {en} } @techreport{FranksKalkuhlLessmann2022, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Franks, Max and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Lessmann, Kai}, title = {Optimal Pricing for Carbon Dioxide Removal Under Inter-Regional Leakage}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {43}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-53808}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-538080}, pages = {12}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) moves atmospheric carbon to geological or land-based sinks. In a first-best setting, the optimal use of CDR is achieved by a removal subsidy that equals the optimal carbon tax and marginal damages. We derive second-best subsidies for CDR when no global carbon price exists but a national government implements a unilateral climate policy. We find that the optimal carbon tax differs from an optimal CDR subsidy because of carbon leakage, terms-of-trade and fossil resource rent dynamics. First, the optimal removal subsidy tends to be larger than the carbon tax because of lower supply-side leakage on fossil resource markets. Second, terms-of-trade effects exacerbate this wedge for net resource exporters, implying even larger removal subsidies. Third, the optimal removal subsidy may fall below the carbon tax for resource-poor countries when marginal environmental damages are small.}, language = {en} } @techreport{BorckSchrauth2022, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Borck, Rainald and Schrauth, Philipp}, title = {Urban pollution}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {60}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-57204}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-572049}, pages = {48}, year = {2022}, abstract = {We use worldwide satellite data to analyse how population size and density affect urban pollution. We find that density significantly increases pollution exposure. Looking only at urban areas, we find that population size affects exposure more than density. Moreover, the effect is driven mostly by population commuting to core cities rather than the core city population itself. We analyse heterogeneity by geography and income levels. By and large, the influence of population on pollution is greatest in Asia and middle-income countries. A counterfactual simulation shows that PM2.5 exposure would fall by up to 36\% and NO2 exposure up to 53\% if within countries population size were equalized across all cities.}, language = {en} } @techreport{AmannRzepka2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Amann, Erwin and Rzepka, Sylvi}, title = {The Effect of Goal-Setting Prompts in a Blended Learning Environment}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {25}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-49347}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-493476}, pages = {22, vi}, year = {2021}, abstract = {We investigate how inviting students to set task-based goals affects usage of an online learning platform and course performance. We design and implement a randomized field experiment in a large mandatory economics course with blended learning elements. The low-cost treatment induces students to use the online learning system more often, more intensively, and to begin earlier with exam preparation. Treated students perform better in the course than the control group: they are 18.8\% (0.20 SD) more likely to pass the exam and earn 6.7\% (0.19 SD) more points on the exam. There is no evidence that treated students spend significantly more time, rather they tend to shift to more productive learning methods. The heterogeneity analysis suggests that higher treatment effects are associated with higher levels of behavioral bias but also with poor early course behavior.}, language = {en} } @techreport{ŠedovaČizmaziovaCook2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Šedov{\´a}, Barbora and Čizmaziov{\´a}, Lucia and Cook, Athene}, title = {A meta-analysis of climate migration literature}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {29}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-49982}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-499827}, pages = {83}, year = {2021}, abstract = {The large literature that aims to find evidence of climate migration delivers mixed findings. This meta-regression analysis i) summarizes direct links between adverse climatic events and migration, ii) maps patterns of climate migration, and iii) explains the variation in outcomes. Using a set of limited dependent variable models, we meta-analyze thus-far the most comprehensive sample of 3,625 estimates from 116 original studies and produce novel insights on climate migration. We find that extremely high temperatures and drying conditions increase migration. We do not find a significant effect of sudden-onset events. Climate migration is most likely to emerge due to contemporaneous events, to originate in rural areas and to take place in middle-income countries, internally, to cities. The likelihood to become trapped in affected areas is higher for women and in low-income countries, particularly in Africa. We uniquely quantify how pitfalls typical for the broader empirical climate impact literature affect climate migration findings. We also find evidence of different publication biases.}, language = {en} } @techreport{CaliendoTuebbicke2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Caliendo, Marco and T{\"u}bbicke, Stefan}, title = {Design and Effectiveness of Start-Up Subsidies}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {30}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-50005}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-500056}, pages = {20}, year = {2021}, abstract = {While a growing body of literature finds positive impacts of Start-Up Subsidies (SUS) on labor market outcomes of participants, little is known about how the design of these programs shapes their effectiveness and hence how to improve policy. As experimental variation in program design is unavailable, we exploit the 2011 reform of the current German SUS program for the unemployed which strengthened case-workers' discretionary power, increased entry requirements and reduced monetary support. We estimate the impact of the reform on the program's effectiveness using samples of participants and non-participants from before and after the reform. To control for time-constant unobserved heterogeneity as well as differential selection patterns based on observable characteristics over time, we combine Difference-in-Differences with inverse probability weighting using covariate balancing propensity scores. Holding participants' observed characteristics as well as macroeconomic conditions constant, the results suggest that the reform was successful in raising employment effects on average. As these findings may be contaminated by changes in selection patterns based on unobserved characteristics, we assess our results using simulation-based sensitivity analyses and find that our estimates are highly robust to changes in unobserved characteristics. Hence, the reform most likely had a positive impact on the effectiveness of the program, suggesting that increasing entry requirements and reducing support in-creased the program's impacts while reducing the cost per participant.}, language = {en} } @techreport{MarcusSiedlerZiebarth2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Marcus, Jan and Siedler, Thomas and Ziebarth, Nicolas R.}, title = {The Long-Run Effects of Sports Club Vouchers for Primary School Children}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {34}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-50897}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-508978}, pages = {72}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Starting in 2009, the German state of Saxony distributed sports club membership vouchers among all 33,000 third graders in the state. The policy's objective was to encourage them to develop a long-term habit of exercising. In 2018, we carried out a large register-based survey among several cohorts in Saxony and two neighboring states. Our difference-in-differences estimations show that, even after a decade, awareness of the voucher program was significantly higher in the treatment group. We also find that youth received and redeemed the vouchers. However, we do not find significant short- or long-term effects on sports club membership, physical activity, overweightness, or motor skills.}, language = {en} } @techreport{LudolphŠedova2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Ludolph, Lars and Šedov{\´a}, Barbora}, title = {Global food prices, local weather and migration in Sub-Saharan Africa}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {26}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-49494}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-494946}, pages = {53}, year = {2021}, abstract = {In this paper, we study the effect of exogenous global crop price changes on migration from agricultural and non-agricultural households in Sub-Saharan Africa. We show that, similar to the effect of positive local weather shocks, the effect of a locally-relevant global crop price increase on household out-migration depends on the initial household wealth. Higher international producer prices relax the budget constraint of poor agricultural households and facilitate migration. The order of magnitude of a standardized price effect is approx. one third of the standardized effect of a local weather shock. Unlike positive weather shocks, which mostly facilitate internal rural-urban migration, positive income shocks through rising producer prices only increase migration to neighboring African countries, likely due to the simultaneous decrease in real income in nearby urban areas. Finally, we show that while higher producer prices induce conflict, conflict does not play a role for the household decision to send a member as a labor migrant.}, language = {en} } @techreport{GraeberKritikosSeebauer2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Graeber, Daniel and Kritikos, Alexander and Seebauer, Johannes}, title = {COVID-19: a crisis of the female self-employed}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {27}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-49810}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-498108}, pages = {72}, year = {2021}, abstract = {We investigate how the economic consequences of the pandemic, and of the government-mandated measures to contain its spread, affect the self-employed - particularly women - in Germany. For our analysis, we use representative, real-time survey data in which respondents were asked about their situation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings indicate that among the self-employed, who generally face a higher likelihood of income losses due to COVID-19 than employees, women are 35\% more likely to experience income losses than their male counterparts. Conversely, we do not find a comparable gender gap among employees. Our results further suggest that the gender gap among the self-employed is largely explained by the fact that women disproportionately work in industries that are more severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis of potential mechanisms reveals that women are significantly more likely to be impacted by government-imposed restrictions, i.e. the regulation of opening hours. We conclude that future policy measures intending to mitigate the consequences of such shocks should account for this considerable variation in economic hardship.}, language = {en} } @techreport{HaenselFranksKalkuhletal.2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {H{\"a}nsel, Martin C. and Franks, Max and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Edenhofer, Ottmar}, title = {Optimal carbon taxation and horizontal equity}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {28}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-49812}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-498128}, pages = {51}, year = {2021}, abstract = {We develop a model of optimal carbon taxation and redistribution taking into account horizontal equity concerns by considering heterogeneous energy efficiencies. By deriving first- and second-best rules for policy instruments including carbon taxes, transfers and energy subsidies, we then investigate analytically how horizontal equity is considered in the social welfare maximizing tax structure. We calibrate the model to German household data and a 30 percent emission reduction goal. Our results show that energy-intensive households should receive more redistributive resources than energy-efficient households if and only if social inequality aversion is sufficiently high. We further find that redistribution of carbon tax revenue via household-specific transfers is the first-best policy. Equal per-capita transfers do not suffer from informational problems, but increase mitigation costs by around 15 percent compared to the first- best for unity inequality aversion. Adding renewable energy subsidies or non-linear energy subsidies, reduces mitigation costs further without relying on observability of households' energy efficiency.}, language = {en} } @techreport{GraeberSchikora2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Graeber, Daniel and Schikora, Felicitas}, title = {Hate is too great a burden to bear}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {31}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-50797}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-507972}, pages = {53}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Against a background of increasing violence against non-natives, we estimate the effect of hate crime on refugees' mental health in Germany. For this purpose, we combine two datasets: administrative records on xenophobic crime against refugee shelters by the Federal Criminal Office and the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees. We apply a regression discontinuity in time design to estimate the effect of interest. Our results indicate that hate crime has a substantial negative effect on several mental health indicators, including the Mental Component Summary score and the Patient Health Questionnaire-4 score. The effects are stronger for refugees with closer geographic proximity to the focal hate crime and refugees with low country-specific human capital. While the estimated effect is only transitory, we argue that negative mental health shocks during the critical period after arrival have important long-term consequences. Keywords: Mental health, hate crime, migration, refugees, human capital.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KritikosSchierschStiel2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Kritikos, Alexander and Schiersch, Alexander and Stiel, Caroline}, title = {The productivity puzzle in business services}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {37}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-51453}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-514536}, pages = {37}, year = {2021}, abstract = {In Germany, the productivity of professional services, a sector dominated by micro and small firms, declined by 40 percent between 1995 and 2014. This productivity decline also holds true for professional services in other European countries. Using a German firm-level dataset of 700,000 observations between 2003 and 2017, we analyze this largely uncovered phenomenon among professional services, the 4th largest sector in the EU15 business economy, which provide important intermediate services for the rest of the economy. We show that changes in the value chain explain about half of the decline and the increase in part-time employment is a further minor part of the decline. In contrast to expectations, the entry of micro and small firms, despite their lower productivity levels, is not responsible for the decline. We also cannot confirm the conjecture that weakening competition allows unproductive firms to remain in the market.}, language = {en} } @techreport{MuellerWrohlich2019, type = {Working Paper}, author = {M{\"u}ller, Kai-Uwe and Wrohlich, Katharina}, title = {Does subsidized care for toddlers increase maternal labor supply?}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {9}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-42772}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-427727}, pages = {50}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Expanding public or publicly subsidized childcare has been a top social policy priority in many industrialized countries. It is supposed to increase fertility, promote children's development and enhance mothers' labor market attachment. In this paper, we analyze the causal effect of one of the largest expansions of subsidized childcare for children up to three years among industrialized countries on the employment of mothers in Germany. Identification is based on spatial and temporal variation in the expansion of publicly subsidized childcare triggered by two comprehensive childcare policy reforms. The empirical analysis is based on the German Microcensus that is matched to county level data on childcare availability. Based on our preferred specification which includes time and county fixed effects we find that an increase in childcare slots by one percentage point increases mothers' labor market participation rate by 0.2 percentage points. The overall increase in employment is explained by the rise in part-time employment with relatively long hours (20-35 hours per week). We do not find a change in full-time employment or lower part-time employment that is causally related to the childcare expansion. The effect is almost entirely driven by mothers with medium-level qualifications. Mothers with low education levels do not profit from this reform calling for a stronger policy focus on particularly disadvantaged groups in coming years.}, language = {en} }