@phdthesis{Perera2021,
  author    = {Perera, Upeksha},
  title     = {Solutions of direct and inverse Sturm-Liouville problems},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-53006},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-530064},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {x, 109},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Lie group method in combination with Magnus expansion is utilized to develop a universal method applicable to solving a Sturm-Liouville Problem (SLP) of any order with arbitrary boundary conditions. It is shown that the method has ability to solve direct regular and some singular SLPs of even orders (tested up to order eight), with a mix of boundary conditions (including non-separable and finite singular endpoints), accurately and efficiently. The present technique is successfully applied to overcome the difficulties in finding suitable sets of eigenvalues so that the inverse SLP problem can be effectively solved. Next, a concrete implementation to the inverse Sturm-Liouville problem algorithm proposed by Barcilon (1974) is provided. Furthermore, computational feasibility and applicability of this algorithm to solve inverse Sturm-Liouville problems of order n=2,4 is verified successfully. It is observed that the method is successful even in the presence of significant noise, provided that the assumptions of the algorithm are satisfied. In conclusion, this work provides methods that can be adapted successfully for solving a direct (regular/singular) or inverse SLP of an arbitrary order with arbitrary boundary conditions.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Wichitsanguan2016,
  author    = {Wichitsa-nguan, Korakot},
  title     = {Modifications and extensions of the logistic regression and Cox model},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-90033},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {x, 131},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {In many statistical applications, the aim is to model the relationship between covariates and some outcomes. A choice of the appropriate model depends on the outcome and the research objectives, such as linear models for continuous outcomes, logistic models for binary outcomes and the Cox model for time-to-event data. In epidemiological, medical, biological, societal and economic studies, the logistic regression is widely used to describe the relationship between a response variable as binary outcome and explanatory variables as a set of covariates. However, epidemiologic cohort studies are quite expensive regarding data management since following up a large number of individuals takes long time. Therefore, the case-cohort design is applied to reduce cost and time for data collection. The case-cohort sampling collects a small random sample from the entire cohort, which is called subcohort. The advantage of this design is that the covariate and follow-up data are recorded only on the subcohort and all cases (all members of the cohort who develop the event of interest during the follow-up process). In this thesis, we investigate the estimation in the logistic model for case-cohort design. First, a model with a binary response and a binary covariate is considered. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is described and its asymptotic properties are established. An estimator for the asymptotic variance of the estimator based on the maximum likelihood approach is proposed; this estimator differs slightly from the estimator introduced by Prentice (1986). Simulation results for several proportions of the subcohort show that the proposed estimator gives lower empirical bias and empirical variance than Prentice's estimator. Then the MLE in the logistic regression with discrete covariate under case-cohort design is studied. Here the approach of the binary covariate model is extended. Proving asymptotic normality of estimators, standard errors for the estimators can be derived. The simulation study demonstrates the estimation procedure of the logistic regression model with a one-dimensional discrete covariate. Simulation results for several proportions of the subcohort and different choices of the underlying parameters indicate that the estimator developed here performs reasonably well. Moreover, the comparison between theoretical values and simulation results of the asymptotic variance of estimator is presented. Clearly, the logistic regression is sufficient for the binary outcome refers to be available for all subjects and for a fixed time interval. Nevertheless, in practice, the observations in clinical trials are frequently collected for different time periods and subjects may drop out or relapse from other causes during follow-up. Hence, the logistic regression is not appropriate for incomplete follow-up data; for example, an individual drops out of the study before the end of data collection or an individual has not occurred the event of interest for the duration of the study. These observations are called censored observations. The survival analysis is necessary to solve these problems. Moreover, the time to the occurence of the event of interest is taken into account. The Cox model has been widely used in survival analysis, which can effectively handle the censored data. Cox (1972) proposed the model which is focused on the hazard function. The Cox model is assumed to be λ(t|x) = λ0(t) exp(β^Tx) where λ0(t) is an unspecified baseline hazard at time t and X is the vector of covariates, β is a p-dimensional vector of coefficient. In this thesis, the Cox model is considered under the view point of experimental design. The estimability of the parameter β0 in the Cox model, where β0 denotes the true value of β, and the choice of optimal covariates are investigated. We give new representations of the observed information matrix In(β) and extend results for the Cox model of Andersen and Gill (1982). In this way conditions for the estimability of β0 are formulated. Under some regularity conditions, ∑ is the inverse of the asymptotic variance matrix of the MPLE of β0 in the Cox model and then some properties of the asymptotic variance matrix of the MPLE are highlighted. Based on the results of asymptotic estimability, the calculation of local optimal covariates is considered and shown in examples. In a sensitivity analysis, the efficiency of given covariates is calculated. For neighborhoods of the exponential models, the efficiencies have then been found. It is appeared that for fixed parameters β0, the efficiencies do not change very much for different baseline hazard functions. Some proposals for applicable optimal covariates and a calculation procedure for finding optimal covariates are discussed. Furthermore, the extension of the Cox model where time-dependent coefficient are allowed, is investigated. In this situation, the maximum local partial likelihood estimator for estimating the coefficient function β(·) is described. Based on this estimator, we formulate a new test procedure for testing, whether a one-dimensional coefficient function β(·) has a prespecified parametric form, say β(·; ϑ). The score function derived from the local constant partial likelihood function at d distinct grid points is considered. It is shown that the distribution of the properly standardized quadratic form of this d-dimensional vector under the null hypothesis tends to a Chi-squared distribution. Moreover, the limit statement remains true when replacing the unknown ϑ0 by the MPLE in the hypothetical model and an asymptotic α-test is given by the quantiles or p-values of the limiting Chi-squared distribution. Finally, we propose a bootstrap version of this test. The bootstrap test is only defined for the special case of testing whether the coefficient function is constant. A simulation study illustrates the behavior of the bootstrap test under the null hypothesis and a special alternative. It gives quite good results for the chosen underlying model. References P. K. Andersen and R. D. Gill. Cox's regression model for counting processes: a large samplestudy. Ann. Statist., 10(4):1100{1120, 1982. D. R. Cox. Regression models and life-tables. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B, 34:187{220, 1972. R. L. Prentice. A case-cohort design for epidemiologic cohort studies and disease prevention trials. Biometrika, 73(1):1{11, 1986.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Zhelavskaya2020,
  author    = {Zhelavskaya, Irina},
  title     = {Modeling of the Plasmasphere Dynamics},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-48243},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-482433},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xlii, 256},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {The plasmasphere is a dynamic region of cold, dense plasma surrounding the Earth. Its shape and size are highly susceptible to variations in solar and geomagnetic conditions. Having an accurate model of plasma density in the plasmasphere is important for GNSS navigation and for predicting hazardous effects of radiation in space on spacecraft. The distribution of cold plasma and its dynamic dependence on solar wind and geomagnetic conditions remain, however, poorly quantified. Existing empirical models of plasma density tend to be oversimplified as they are based on statistical averages over static parameters. Understanding the global dynamics of the plasmasphere using observations from space remains a challenge, as existing density measurements are sparse and limited to locations where satellites can provide in-situ observations. In this dissertation, we demonstrate how such sparse electron density measurements can be used to reconstruct the global electron density distribution in the plasmasphere and capture its dynamic dependence on solar wind and geomagnetic conditions. First, we develop an automated algorithm to determine the electron density from in-situ measurements of the electric field on the Van Allen Probes spacecraft. In particular, we design a neural network to infer the upper hybrid resonance frequency from the dynamic spectrograms obtained with the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science (EMFISIS) instrumentation suite, which is then used to calculate the electron number density. The developed Neural-network-based Upper hybrid Resonance Determination (NURD) algorithm is applied to more than four years of EMFISIS measurements to produce the publicly available electron density data set. We utilize the obtained electron density data set to develop a new global model of plasma density by employing a neural network-based modeling approach. In addition to the location, the model takes the time history of geomagnetic indices and location as inputs, and produces electron density in the equatorial plane as an output. It is extensively validated using in-situ density measurements from the Van Allen Probes mission, and also by comparing the predicted global evolution of the plasmasphere with the global IMAGE EUV images of He+ distribution. The model successfully reproduces erosion of the plasmasphere on the night side as well as plume formation and evolution, and agrees well with data. The performance of neural networks strongly depends on the availability of training data, which is limited during intervals of high geomagnetic activity. In order to provide reliable density predictions during such intervals, we can employ physics-based modeling. We develop a new approach for optimally combining the neural network- and physics-based models of the plasmasphere by means of data assimilation. The developed approach utilizes advantages of both neural network- and physics-based modeling and produces reliable global plasma density reconstructions for quiet, disturbed, and extreme geomagnetic conditions. Finally, we extend the developed machine learning-based tools and apply them to another important problem in the field of space weather, the prediction of the geomagnetic index Kp. The Kp index is one of the most widely used indicators for space weather alerts and serves as input to various models, such as for the thermosphere, the radiation belts and the plasmasphere. It is therefore crucial to predict the Kp index accurately. Previous work in this area has mostly employed artificial neural networks to nowcast and make short-term predictions of Kp, basing their inferences on the recent history of Kp and solar wind measurements at L1. We analyze how the performance of neural networks compares to other machine learning algorithms for nowcasting and forecasting Kp for up to 12 hours ahead. Additionally, we investigate several machine learning and information theory methods for selecting the optimal inputs to a predictive model of Kp. The developed tools for feature selection can also be applied to other problems in space physics in order to reduce the input dimensionality and identify the most important drivers. Research outlined in this dissertation clearly demonstrates that machine learning tools can be used to develop empirical models from sparse data and also can be used to understand the underlying physical processes. Combining machine learning, physics-based modeling and data assimilation allows us to develop novel methods benefiting from these different approaches.},
  language  = {en}
}