@phdthesis{Middelanis2023,
  author    = {Middelanis, Robin},
  title     = {Global response to local extremes—a storyline approach on economic loss propagation from weather extremes},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-61112},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-611127},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {vii, 237},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, Earth's average surface temperature is steadily increasing. As a consequence, many weather extremes are likely to become more frequent and intense. This poses a threat to natural and human systems, with local impacts capable of destroying exposed assets and infrastructure, and disrupting economic and societal activity. Yet, these effects are not locally confined to the directly affected regions, as they can trigger indirect economic repercussions through loss propagation along supply chains. As a result, local extremes yield a potentially global economic response. To build economic resilience and design effective adaptation measures that mitigate adverse socio-economic impacts of ongoing climate change, it is crucial to gain a comprehensive understanding of indirect impacts and the underlying economic mechanisms. Presenting six articles in this thesis, I contribute towards this understanding. To this end, I expand on local impacts under current and future climate, the resulting global economic response, as well as the methods and tools to analyze this response. Starting with a traditional assessment of weather extremes under climate change, the first article investigates extreme snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere until the end of the century. Analyzing an ensemble of global climate model projections reveals an increase of the most extreme snowfall, while mean snowfall decreases. Assessing repercussions beyond local impacts, I employ numerical simulations to compute indirect economic effects from weather extremes with the numerical agent-based shock propagation model Acclimate. This model is used in conjunction with the recently emerged storyline framework, which involves analyzing the impacts of a particular reference extreme event and comparing them to impacts in plausible counterfactual scenarios under various climate or socio-economic conditions. Using this approach, I introduce three primary storylines that shed light on the complex mechanisms underlying economic loss propagation. In the second and third articles of this thesis, I analyze storylines for the historical Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Harvey (2017) in the USA. For this, I first estimate local economic output losses and then simulate the resulting global economic response with Acclimate. The storyline for Hurricane Sandy thereby focuses on global consumption price anomalies and the resulting changes in consumption. I find that the local economic disruption leads to a global wave-like economic price ripple, with upstream effects propagating in the supplier direction and downstream effects in the buyer direction. Initially, an upstream demand reduction causes consumption price decreases, followed by a downstream supply shortage and increasing prices, before the anomalies decay in a normalization phase. A dominant upstream or downstream effect leads to net consumption gains or losses of a region, respectively. Moreover, I demonstrate that a longer direct economic shock intensifies the downstream effect for many regions, leading to an overall consumption loss. The third article of my thesis builds upon the developed loss estimation method by incorporating projections to future global warming levels. I use these projections to explore how the global production response to Hurricane Harvey would change under further increased global warming. The results show that, while the USA is able to nationally offset direct losses in the reference configuration, other countries have to compensate for increasing shares of counterfactual future losses. This compensation is mainly achieved by large exporting countries, but gradually shifts towards smaller regions. These findings not only highlight the economy's ability to flexibly mitigate disaster losses to a certain extent, but also reveal the vulnerability and economic disadvantage of regions that are exposed to extreme weather events. The storyline in the fourth article of my thesis investigates the interaction between global economic stress and the propagation of losses from weather extremes. I examine indirect impacts of weather extremes — tropical cyclones, heat stress, and river floods — worldwide under two different economic conditions: an unstressed economy and a globally stressed economy, as seen during the Covid-19 pandemic. I demonstrate that the adverse effects of weather extremes on global consumption are strongly amplified when the economy is under stress. Specifically, consumption losses in the USA and China double and triple, respectively, due to the global economy's decreased capacity for disaster loss compensation. An aggravated scarcity intensifies the price response, causing consumption losses to increase. Advancing on the methods and tools used here, the final two articles in my thesis extend the agent-based model Acclimate and formalize the storyline approach. With the model extension described in the fifth article, regional consumers make rational choices on the goods bought such that their utility is maximized under a constrained budget. In an out-of-equilibrium economy, these rational consumers are shown to temporarily increase consumption of certain goods in spite of rising prices. The sixth article of my thesis proposes a formalization of the storyline framework, drawing on multiple studies including storylines presented in this thesis. The proposed guideline defines eight central elements that can be used to construct a storyline. Overall, this thesis contributes towards a better understanding of economic repercussions of weather extremes. It achieves this by providing assessments of local direct impacts, highlighting mechanisms and impacts of loss propagation, and advancing on methods and tools used.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Makowski2021,
  author    = {Makowski, Silvia},
  title     = {Discriminative Models for Biometric Identification using Micro- and Macro-Movements of the Eyes},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xi, 91},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Human visual perception is an active process. Eye movements either alternate between fixations and saccades or follow a smooth pursuit movement in case of moving targets. Besides these macroscopic gaze patterns, the eyes perform involuntary micro-movements during fixations which are commonly categorized into micro-saccades, drift and tremor. Eye movements are frequently studied in cognitive psychology, because they reflect a complex interplay of perception, attention and oculomotor control. A common insight of psychological research is that macro-movements are highly individual. Inspired by this finding, there has been a considerable amount of prior research on oculomotoric biometric identification. However, the accuracy of known approaches is too low and the time needed for identification is too long for any practical application. This thesis explores discriminative models for the task of biometric identification. Discriminative models optimize a quality measure of the predictions and are usually superior to generative approaches in discriminative tasks. However, using discriminative models requires to select a suitable form of data representation for sequential eye gaze data; i.e., by engineering features or constructing a sequence kernel and the performance of the classification model strongly depends on the data representation. We study two fundamentally different ways of representing eye gaze within a discriminative framework. In the first part of this thesis, we explore the integration of data and psychological background knowledge in the form of generative models to construct representations. To this end, we first develop generative statistical models of gaze behavior during reading and scene viewing that account for viewer-specific distributional properties of gaze patterns. In a second step, we develop a discriminative identification model by deriving Fisher kernel functions from these and several baseline models. We find that an SVM with Fisher kernel is able to reliably identify users based on their eye gaze during reading and scene viewing. However, since the generative models are constrained to use low-frequency macro-movements, they discard a significant amount of information contained in the raw eye tracking signal at a high cost: identification requires about one minute of input recording, which makes it inapplicable for real world biometric systems. In the second part of this thesis, we study a purely data-driven modeling approach. Here, we aim at automatically discovering the individual pattern hidden in the raw eye tracking signal. To this end, we develop a deep convolutional neural network DeepEyedentification that processes yaw and pitch gaze velocities and learns a representation end-to-end. Compared to prior work, this model increases the identification accuracy by one order of magnitude and the time to identification decreases to only seconds. The DeepEyedentificationLive model further improves upon the identification performance by processing binocular input and it also detects presentation-attacks. We find that by learning a representation, the performance of oculomotoric identification and presentation-attack detection can be driven close to practical relevance for biometric applications. Eye tracking devices with high sampling frequency and precision are expensive and the applicability of eye movement as a biometric feature heavily depends on cost of recording devices. In the last part of this thesis, we therefore study the requirements on data quality by evaluating the performance of the DeepEyedentificationLive network under reduced spatial and temporal resolution. We find that the method still attains a high identification accuracy at a temporal resolution of only 250 Hz and a precision of 0.03 degrees. Reducing both does not have an additive deteriorating effect.},
  language  = {en}
}