@article{PalkopoulouLipsonMallicketal.2018,
  author    = {Palkopoulou, Eleftheria and Lipson, Mark and Mallick, Swapan and Nielsen, Svend and Rohland, Nadin and Baleka, Sina Isabelle and Karpinski, Emil and Ivancevici, Atma M. and Thu-Hien To, and Kortschak, Daniel and Raison, Joy M. and Qu, Zhipeng and Chin, Tat-Jun and Alt, Kurt W. and Claesson, Stefan and Dalen, Love and MacPhee, Ross D. E. and Meller, Harald and Rocar, Alfred L. and Ryder, Oliver A. and Heiman, David and Young, Sarah and Breen, Matthew and Williams, Christina and Aken, Bronwen L. and Ruffier, Magali and Karlsson, Elinor and Johnson, Jeremy and Di Palma, Federica and Alfoldi, Jessica and Adelsoni, David L. and Mailund, Thomas and Munch, Kasper and Lindblad-Toh, Kerstin and Hofreiter, Michael and Poinar, Hendrik and Reich, David},
  title     = {A comprehensive genomic history of extinct and living elephants},
  series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  volume    = {115},
  journal   = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  number    = {11},
  publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {0027-8424},
  doi       = {10.1073/pnas.1720554115},
  pages     = {E2566 -- E2574},
  year      = {2018},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{CasadoLandaisPicardetal.2018,
  author    = {Casado, Mathieu and Landais, Amaelle and Picard, Ghislain and M{\"u}nch, Thomas and Laepple, Thomas and Stenni, Barbara and Dreossi, Giuliano and Ekaykin, Alexey and Arnaud, Laurent and Genthon, Christophe and Touzeau, Alexandra and Masson-Delmotte, Valerie and Jouzel, Jean},
  title     = {Archival processes of the water stable isotope signal in East Antarctic ice cores},
  series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
  volume    = {12},
  journal   = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1994-0416},
  doi       = {10.5194/tc-12-1745-2018},
  pages     = {1745 -- 1766},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {The oldest ice core records are obtained from the East Antarctic Plateau. Water isotopes are key proxies to reconstructing past climatic conditions over the ice sheet and at the evaporation source. The accuracy of climate reconstructions depends on knowledge of all processes affecting water vapour, precipitation and snow isotopic compositions. Fractionation processes are well understood and can be integrated in trajectory-based Rayleigh distillation and isotope-enabled climate models. However, a quantitative understanding of processes potentially altering snow isotopic composition after deposition is still missing. In low-accumulation sites, such as those found in East Antarctica, these poorly constrained processes are likely to play a significant role and limit the interpretability of an ice core's isotopic composition. By combining observations of isotopic composition in vapour, precipitation, surface snow and buried snow from Dome C, a deep ice core site on the East Antarctic Plateau, we found indications of a seasonal impact of metamorphism on the surface snow isotopic signal when compared to the initial precipitation. Particularly in summer, exchanges of water molecules between vapour and snow are driven by the diurnal sublimation-condensation cycles. Overall, we observe in between precipitation events modification of the surface snow isotopic composition. Using high-resolution water isotopic composition profiles from snow pits at five Antarctic sites with different accumulation rates, we identified common patterns which cannot be attributed to the seasonal variability of precipitation. These differences in the precipitation, surface snow and buried snow isotopic composition provide evidence of post-deposition processes affecting ice core records in low-accumulation areas.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{CasadoLandaisPicardetal.2018,
  author    = {Casado, Mathieu and Landais, Amaelle and Picard, Ghislain and M{\"u}nch, Thomas and Laepple, Thomas and Stenni, Barbara and Dreossi, Giuliano and Ekaykin, Alexey and Arnaud, Laurent and Genthon, Christophe and Touzeau, Alexandra and Masson-Delmotte, Valerie and Jouzel, Jean},
  title     = {Archival processes of the water stable isotope signal in East Antarctic ice cores},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {716},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42705},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-427054},
  pages     = {22},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {The oldest ice core records are obtained from the East Antarctic Plateau. Water isotopes are key proxies to reconstructing past climatic conditions over the ice sheet and at the evaporation source. The accuracy of climate reconstructions depends on knowledge of all processes affecting water vapour, precipitation and snow isotopic compositions. Fractionation processes are well understood and can be integrated in trajectory-based Rayleigh distillation and isotope-enabled climate models. However, a quantitative understanding of processes potentially altering snow isotopic composition after deposition is still missing. In low-accumulation sites, such as those found in East Antarctica, these poorly constrained processes are likely to play a significant role and limit the interpretability of an ice core's isotopic composition. By combining observations of isotopic composition in vapour, precipitation, surface snow and buried snow from Dome C, a deep ice core site on the East Antarctic Plateau, we found indications of a seasonal impact of metamorphism on the surface snow isotopic signal when compared to the initial precipitation. Particularly in summer, exchanges of water molecules between vapour and snow are driven by the diurnal sublimation-condensation cycles. Overall, we observe in between precipitation events modification of the surface snow isotopic composition. Using high-resolution water isotopic composition profiles from snow pits at five Antarctic sites with different accumulation rates, we identified common patterns which cannot be attributed to the seasonal variability of precipitation. These differences in the precipitation, surface snow and buried snow isotopic composition provide evidence of post-deposition processes affecting ice core records in low-accumulation areas.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RehfeldMuenchHoetal.2018,
  author    = {Rehfeld, Kira and M{\"u}nch, Thomas and Ho, Sze Ling and Laepple, Thomas},
  title     = {Global patterns of declining temperature variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene},
  series = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science},
  volume    = {554},
  journal   = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science},
  number    = {7692},
  publisher = {Nature Publ. Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {0028-0836},
  doi       = {10.1038/nature25454},
  pages     = {356 -- 359},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Changes in climate variability are as important for society to address as are changes in mean climate(1). Contrasting temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene can provide insights into the relationship between the mean state of the climate and its variability(2,3). However, although glacial-interglacial changes in variability have been quantified for Greenland(2), a global view remains elusive. Here we use a network of marine and terrestrial temperature proxies to show that temperature variability decreased globally by a factor of four as the climate warmed by 3-8 degrees Celsius from the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21,000 years ago) to the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years). This decrease had a clear zonal pattern, with little change in the tropics (by a factor of only 1.6-2.8) and greater change in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres (by a factor of 3.3-14). By contrast, Greenland ice-core records show a reduction in temperature variability by a factor of 73, suggesting influences beyond local temperature or a decoupling of atmospheric and global surface temperature variability for Greenland. The overall pattern of reduced variability can be explained by changes in the meridional temperature gradient, a mechanism that points to further decreases in temperature variability in a warmer future.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Muench2018,
  author    = {M{\"u}nch, Thomas},
  title     = {Interpretation of temperature signals from ice cores},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-414963},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xxi, 197},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Earth's climate varies continuously across space and time, but humankind has witnessed only a small snapshot of its entire history, and instrumentally documented it for a mere 200 years. Our knowledge of past climate changes is therefore almost exclusively based on indirect proxy data, i.e. on indicators which are sensitive to changes in climatic variables and stored in environmental archives. Extracting the data from these archives allows retrieval of the information from earlier times. Obtaining accurate proxy information is a key means to test model predictions of the past climate, and only after such validation can the models be used to reliably forecast future changes in our warming world. The polar ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are one major climate archive, which record information about local air temperatures by means of the isotopic composition of the water molecules embedded in the ice. However, this temperature proxy is, as any indirect climate data, not a perfect recorder of past climatic variations. Apart from local air temperatures, a multitude of other processes affect the mean and variability of the isotopic data, which hinders their direct interpretation in terms of climate variations. This applies especially to regions with little annual accumulation of snow, such as the Antarctic Plateau. While these areas in principle allow for the extraction of isotope records reaching far back in time, a strong corruption of the temperature signal originally encoded in the isotopic data of the snow is expected. This dissertation uses observational isotope data from Antarctica, focussing especially on the East Antarctic low-accumulation area around the Kohnen Station ice-core drilling site, together with statistical and physical methods, to improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal isotope variability across different scales, and thus to enhance the applicability of the proxy for estimating past temperature variability. The presented results lead to a quantitative explanation of the local-scale (1-500 m) spatial variability in the form of a statistical noise model, and reveal the main source of the temporal variability to be the mixture of a climatic seasonal cycle in temperature and the effect of diffusional smoothing acting on temporally uncorrelated noise. These findings put significant limits on the representativity of single isotope records in terms of local air temperature, and impact the interpretation of apparent cyclicalities in the records. Furthermore, to extend the analyses to larger scales, the timescale-dependency of observed Holocene isotope variability is studied. This offers a deeper understanding of the nature of the variations, and is crucial for unravelling the embedded true temperature variability over a wide range of timescales.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{LaeppleMuenchCasadoetal.2018,
  author    = {Laepple, Thomas and M{\"u}nch, Thomas and Casado, Mathieu and Hoerhold, Maria and Landais, Amaelle and Kipfstuhl, Sepp},
  title     = {On the similarity and apparent cycles of isotopic variations in East Antarctic snow pits},
  series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
  volume    = {12},
  journal   = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1994-0416},
  doi       = {10.5194/tc-12-169-2018},
  pages     = {169 -- 187},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Stable isotope ratios delta O-18 and delta D in polar ice provide a wealth of information about past climate evolution. Snow-pit studies allow us to relate observed weather and climate conditions to the measured isotope variations in the snow. They therefore offer the possibility to test our understanding of how isotope signals are formed and stored in firn and ice. As delta O-18 and delta D in the snowfall are strongly correlated to air temperature, isotopes in the near-surface snow are thought to record the seasonal cycle at a given site. Accordingly, the number of seasonal cycles observed over a given depth should depend on the accumulation rate of snow. However, snow-pit studies from different accumulation conditions in East Antarctica reported similar isotopic variability and comparable apparent cycles in the delta O-18 and delta D profiles with typical wavelengths of similar to 20 cm. These observations are unexpected as the accumulation rates strongly differ between the sites, ranging from 20 to 80mmw.e.yr(-1) (similar to 6-21 cm of snow per year). Various mechanisms have been proposed to explain the isotopic variations individually at each site; however, none of these are consistent with the similarity of the different profiles independent of the local accumulation conditions. Here, we systematically analyse the properties and origins of delta O-18 and delta D variations in high-resolution firn profiles from eight East Antarctic sites. First, we confirm the suggested cycle length (mean distance between peaks) of similar to 20 cm by counting the isotopic maxima. Spectral analysis further shows a strong similarity between the sites but indicates no dominant periodic features. Furthermore, the appar-ent cycle length increases with depth for most East Antarctic sites, which is inconsistent with burial and compression of a regular seasonal cycle. We show that these results can be explained by isotopic diffusion acting on a noise-dominated isotope signal. The firn diffusion length is rather stable across the Antarctic Plateau and thus leads to similar power spectral densities of the isotopic variations. This in turn implies a similar distance between isotopic maxima in the firn profiles. Our results explain a large set of observations discussed in the literature, providing a simple explanation for the interpretation of apparent cycles in shallow isotope records, without invoking complex mechanisms. Finally, the results underline previous suggestions that isotope signals in single ice cores from low-accumulation regions have a small signal-to-noise ratio and thus likely do not allow the reconstruction of interannual to decadal climate variations.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{LaeppleMuenchCasadoetal.2018,
  author    = {Laepple, Thomas and M{\"u}nch, Thomas and Casado, Mathieu and Hoerhold, Maria and Landais, Amaelle and Kipfstuhl, Sepp},
  title     = {On the similarity and apparent cycles of isotopic variations in East Antarctic snow pits},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {932},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-44605},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446052},
  pages     = {169 -- 187},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Stable isotope ratios delta O-18 and delta D in polar ice provide a wealth of information about past climate evolution. Snow-pit studies allow us to relate observed weather and climate conditions to the measured isotope variations in the snow. They therefore offer the possibility to test our understanding of how isotope signals are formed and stored in firn and ice. As delta O-18 and delta D in the snowfall are strongly correlated to air temperature, isotopes in the near-surface snow are thought to record the seasonal cycle at a given site. Accordingly, the number of seasonal cycles observed over a given depth should depend on the accumulation rate of snow. However, snow-pit studies from different accumulation conditions in East Antarctica reported similar isotopic variability and comparable apparent cycles in the delta O-18 and delta D profiles with typical wavelengths of similar to 20 cm. These observations are unexpected as the accumulation rates strongly differ between the sites, ranging from 20 to 80mmw.e.yr(-1) (similar to 6-21 cm of snow per year). Various mechanisms have been proposed to explain the isotopic variations individually at each site; however, none of these are consistent with the similarity of the different profiles independent of the local accumulation conditions. Here, we systematically analyse the properties and origins of delta O-18 and delta D variations in high-resolution firn profiles from eight East Antarctic sites. First, we confirm the suggested cycle length (mean distance between peaks) of similar to 20 cm by counting the isotopic maxima. Spectral analysis further shows a strong similarity between the sites but indicates no dominant periodic features. Furthermore, the appar-ent cycle length increases with depth for most East Antarctic sites, which is inconsistent with burial and compression of a regular seasonal cycle. We show that these results can be explained by isotopic diffusion acting on a noise-dominated isotope signal. The firn diffusion length is rather stable across the Antarctic Plateau and thus leads to similar power spectral densities of the isotopic variations. This in turn implies a similar distance between isotopic maxima in the firn profiles. Our results explain a large set of observations discussed in the literature, providing a simple explanation for the interpretation of apparent cycles in shallow isotope records, without invoking complex mechanisms. Finally, the results underline previous suggestions that isotope signals in single ice cores from low-accumulation regions have a small signal-to-noise ratio and thus likely do not allow the reconstruction of interannual to decadal climate variations.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MuenchLaepple2018,
  author    = {M{\"u}nch, Thomas and Laepple, Thomas},
  title     = {What climate signal is contained in decadal- to centennial-scale isotope variations from Antarctic ice cores?},
  series = {Climate of the past : CP},
  volume    = {14},
  journal   = {Climate of the past : CP},
  number    = {12},
  publisher = {Copernicus Gesellschaft mbH},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1814-9324},
  doi       = {10.5194/cp-14-2053-2018},
  pages     = {2053 -- 2070},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Ice-core-based records of isotopic composition are a proxy for past temperatures and can thus provide information on polar climate variability over a large range of timescales. However, individual isotope records are affected by a multitude of processes that may mask the true temperature variability. The relative magnitude of climate and non-climate contributions is expected to vary as a function of timescale, and thus it is crucial to determine those temporal scales on which the actual signal dominates the noise. At present, there are no reliable estimates of this timescale dependence of the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Here, we present a simple method that applies spectral analyses to stable-isotope data from multiple cores to estimate the SNR, and the signal and noise variability, as a function of timescale. The method builds on separating the contributions from a common signal and from local variations and includes a correction for the effects of diffusion and time uncertainty. We apply our approach to firn-core arrays from Dronning Maud Land (DML) in East Antarctica and from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). For DML and decadal to multi-centennial timescales, we find an increase in the SNR by nearly 1 order of magnitude (similar to 0.2 at decadal and similar to 1.0 at multi-centennial scales). The estimated spectrum of climate variability also shows increasing variability towards longer timescales, contrary to what is traditionally inferred from single records in this region. In contrast, the inferred variability spectrum for WAIS stays close to constant over decadal to centennial timescales, and the results even suggest a decrease in SNR over this range of timescales. We speculate that these differences between DML and WAIS are related to differences in the spatial and temporal scales of the isotope signal, highlighting the potentially more homogeneous atmospheric conditions on the Antarctic Plateau in contrast to the marine-influenced conditions on WAIS. In general, our approach provides a methodological basis for separating local proxy variability from coherent climate variations, which is applicable to a large set of palaeoclimate records.},
  language  = {en}
}