@misc{PalmerGregoryBaggeetal.2020,
  author    = {Palmer, Matthew D. and Gregory, Jonathan and Bagge, Meike and Calvert, Daley and Hagedoorn, Jan Marius and Howard, Tom and Klemann, Volker and Lowe, Jason A. and Roberts, Chris and Slangen, Aimee B. A. and Spada, Giorgio},
  title     = {Exploring the drivers of global and local sea-level change over the 21st century and beyond},
  series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {9},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-54988},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-549881},
  pages     = {27},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {We present a new set of global and local sea-level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5-based sea-level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections, and (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea-level variability, different emissions scenarios, and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea-level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon, and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of local variability for sea-level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual-to-decadal predictions of local sea-level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea-level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlight the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large ( > 50\%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post-2100, we see substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, time scale, and emissions scenario.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{PalmerGregoryBaggeetal.2020,
  author    = {Palmer, Matthew D. and Gregory, Jonathan and Bagge, Meike and Calvert, Daley and Hagedoorn, Jan Marius and Howard, Tom and Klemann, Volker and Lowe, Jason A. and Roberts, Chris and Slangen, Aimee B. A. and Spada, Giorgio},
  title     = {Exploring the drivers of global and local sea-level change over the 21st century and beyond},
  series = {Earth's future},
  volume    = {8},
  journal   = {Earth's future},
  number    = {9},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {2328-4277},
  doi       = {10.1029/2019EF001413},
  pages     = {1 -- 25},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {We present a new set of global and local sea-level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5-based sea-level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections, and (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea-level variability, different emissions scenarios, and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea-level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon, and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of local variability for sea-level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual-to-decadal predictions of local sea-level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea-level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlight the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large ( > 50\%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post-2100, we see substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, time scale, and emissions scenario.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DurandvandenBroekeLeCozannetetal.2022,
  author    = {Durand, Gael and van den Broeke, Michiel R. and Le Cozannet, Goneri and Edwards, Tamsin L. and Holland, Paul R. and Jourdain, Nicolas C. and Marzeion, Ben and Mottram, Ruth and Nicholls, Robert J. and Pattyn, Frank and Paul, Frank and Slangen, Aimee B. A. and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Burgard, Clara and van Calcar, Caroline J. and Barre, Jean-Baptiste and Bataille, Amelie and Chapuis, Anne},
  title     = {Sea-Level rise: from global perspectives to local services},
  series = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
  volume    = {8},
  journal   = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
  publisher = {Frontiers Media},
  address   = {Lausanne},
  issn      = {2296-7745},
  doi       = {10.3389/fmars.2021.709595},
  pages     = {8},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Coastal areas are highly diverse, ecologically rich, regions of key socio-economic activity, and are particularly sensitive to sea-level change. Over most of the 20th century, global mean sea level has risen mainly due to warming and subsequent expansion of the upper ocean layers as well as the melting of glaciers and ice caps. Over the last three decades, increased mass loss of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has also started to contribute significantly to contemporary sea-level rise. The future mass loss of the two ice sheets, which combined represent a sea-level rise potential of similar to 65 m, constitutes the main source of uncertainty in long-term (centennial to millennial) sea-level rise projections. Improved knowledge of the magnitude and rate of future sea-level change is therefore of utmost importance. Moreover, sea level does not change uniformly across the globe and can differ greatly at both regional and local scales. The most appropriate and feasible sea level mitigation and adaptation measures in coastal regions strongly depend on local land use and associated risk aversion. Here, we advocate that addressing the problem of future sea-level rise and its impacts requires (i) bringing together a transdisciplinary scientific community, from climate and cryospheric scientists to coastal impact specialists, and (ii) interacting closely and iteratively with users and local stakeholders to co-design and co-build coastal climate services, including addressing the high-end risks.},
  language  = {en}
}