@misc{FrielerLevermannElliottetal.2015, author = {Frieler, Katja and Levermann, Anders and Elliott, J. and Heinke, J. and Arneth, A. and Bierkens, M. F. P. and Ciais, Philippe and Clark, D. B. and Deryng, D. and Doell, P. and Falloon, P. and Fekete, B. and Folberth, Christian and Friend, A. D. and Gellhorn, C. and Gosling, S. N. and Haddeland, I. and Khabarov, N. and Lomas, M. and Masaki, Y. and Nishina, K. and Neumann, K. and Oki, T. and Pavlick, R. and Ruane, A. C. and Schmid, E. and Schmitz, C. and Stacke, T. and Stehfest, E. and Tang, Q. and Wisser, D. and Huber, V. and Piontek, Franziska and Warszawski, L. and Schewe, Jacob and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim}, title = {A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections}, series = {Earth system dynamics}, journal = {Earth system dynamics}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407968}, pages = {14}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.}, language = {en} } @article{FrielerLevermannElliottetal.2015, author = {Frieler, Katja and Levermann, Anders and Elliott, J. and Heinke, Jens and Arneth, A. and Bierkens, M. F. P. and Ciais, Philippe and Clark, D. B. and Deryng, D. and Doell, P. and Falloon, P. and Fekete, B. and Folberth, Christian and Friend, A. D. and Gellhorn, C. and Gosling, S. N. and Haddeland, I. and Khabarov, N. and Lomas, M. and Masaki, Y. and Nishina, K. and Neumann, K. and Oki, T. and Pavlick, R. and Ruane, A. C. and Schmid, E. and Schmitz, C. and Stacke, T. and Stehfest, E. and Tang, Q. and Wisser, D. and Huber, Veronika and Piontek, Franziska and Warszawski, Lila and Schewe, Jacob and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim}, title = {A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections}, series = {Earth system dynamics}, volume = {6}, journal = {Earth system dynamics}, number = {2}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {2190-4979}, doi = {10.5194/esd-6-447-2015}, pages = {447 -- 460}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making.}, language = {en} } @article{JanssenArhonditsisBeusenetal.2015, author = {Janssen, Annette B. G. and Arhonditsis, George B. and Beusen, Arthur and Bolding, Karsten and Bruce, Louise and Bruggeman, Jorn and Couture, Raoul-Marie and Downing, Andrea S. and Elliott, J. Alex and Frassl, Marieke A. and Gal, Gideon and Gerla, Daan J. and Hipsey, Matthew R. and Hu, Fenjuan and Ives, Stephen C. and Janse, Jan H. and Jeppesen, Erik and Joehnk, Klaus D. and Kneis, David and Kong, Xiangzhen and Kuiper, Jan J. and Lehmann, Moritz K. and Lemmen, Carsten and Oezkundakci, Deniz and Petzoldt, Thomas and Rinke, Karsten and Robson, Barbara J. and Sachse, Rene and Schep, Sebastiaan A. and Schmid, Martin and Scholten, Huub and Teurlincx, Sven and Trolle, Dennis and Troost, Tineke A. and Van Dam, Anne A. and Van Gerven, Luuk P. A. and Weijerman, Mariska and Wells, Scott A. and Mooij, Wolf M.}, title = {Exploring, exploiting and evolving diversity of aquatic ecosystem models: a community perspective}, series = {Aquatic ecology : the international forum covering research in freshwater and marine environments}, volume = {49}, journal = {Aquatic ecology : the international forum covering research in freshwater and marine environments}, number = {4}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1386-2588}, doi = {10.1007/s10452-015-9544-1}, pages = {513 -- 548}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Here, we present a community perspective on how to explore, exploit and evolve the diversity in aquatic ecosystem models. These models play an important role in understanding the functioning of aquatic ecosystems, filling in observation gaps and developing effective strategies for water quality management. In this spirit, numerous models have been developed since the 1970s. We set off to explore model diversity by making an inventory among 42 aquatic ecosystem modellers, by categorizing the resulting set of models and by analysing them for diversity. We then focus on how to exploit model diversity by comparing and combining different aspects of existing models. Finally, we discuss how model diversity came about in the past and could evolve in the future. Throughout our study, we use analogies from biodiversity research to analyse and interpret model diversity. We recommend to make models publicly available through open-source policies, to standardize documentation and technical implementation of models, and to compare models through ensemble modelling and interdisciplinary approaches. We end with our perspective on how the field of aquatic ecosystem modelling might develop in the next 5-10 years. To strive for clarity and to improve readability for non-modellers, we include a glossary.}, language = {en} } @misc{DavosDohertyVolleretal.2016, author = {Davos, C. H. and Doherty, P. and Voller, Heinz and Salzwedel, Annett and Saure, D. and Metzendorf, M. I. and Jensen, K. and Schmid, J. P. and Rauch, B.}, title = {The prognostic effect of cardiac rehabilitation in the era of acute revascularization and statin therapy: the cardiac rehabilitation outcome study (CROS)}, series = {European heart journal}, volume = {37}, journal = {European heart journal}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0195-668X}, pages = {645 -- 645}, year = {2016}, language = {en} } @article{HectorHautierSaneretal.2010, author = {Hector, Andy and Hautier, Yann and Saner, Philippe and Wacker, Lukas and Bagchi, Robert and Joshi, Jasmin Radha and Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael and Spehn, Eva M. and Bazeley-White, Ellen and Weilenmann, Markus and Caldeira, Maria da Concei{\c{c}}{\~a}o Br{\´a}lio de Brito and Dimitrakopoulos, Panayiotis G. and Finn, John A. and Huss-Danell, Kerstin and Jumpponen, Ari and Mulder, Christa P. H. and Palmborg, Cecilia and Pereira, J. S. and Siamantziouras, Akis S. D. and Terry, Andrew C. and Troumbis, Andreas Y. and Schmid, Bernhard and Loreau, Michel}, title = {General stabilizing effects of plant diversity on grassland productivity through population asynchrony and overyielding}, issn = {0012-9658}, year = {2010}, abstract = {Insurance effects of biodiversity can stabilize the functioning of multispecies ecosystems against environmental variability when differential species' responses lead to asynchronous population dynamics. When responses are not perfectly positively correlated, declines in some populations are compensated by increases in others, smoothing variability in ecosystem productivity. This variance reduction effect of biodiversity is analogous to the risk- spreading benefits of diverse investment portfolios in financial markets. We use data from the BIODEPTH network of grassland biodiversity experiments to perform a general test for stabilizing effects of plant diversity on the temporal variability of individual species, functional groups, and aggregate communities. We tested three potential mechanisms: reduction of temporal variability through population asynchrony; enhancement of long-term average performance through positive selection effects; and increases in the temporal mean due to overyielding. Our results support a stabilizing effect of diversity on the temporal variability of grassland aboveground annual net primary production through two mechanisms. Two-species communities with greater population asynchrony were more stable in their average production over time due to compensatory fluctuations. Overyielding also stabilized productivity by increasing levels of average biomass production relative to temporal variability. However, there was no evidence for a performance-enhancing effect on the temporal mean through positive selection effects. In combination with previous work, our results suggest that stabilizing effects of diversity on community productivity through population asynchrony and overyielding appear to be general in grassland ecosystems.}, language = {en} }