@article{TuckerBoehningGaeseFaganetal.2018, author = {Tucker, Marlee A. and Boehning-Gaese, Katrin and Fagan, William F. and Fryxell, John M. and Van Moorter, Bram and Alberts, Susan C. and Ali, Abdullahi H. and Allen, Andrew M. and Attias, Nina and Avgar, Tal and Bartlam-Brooks, Hattie and Bayarbaatar, Buuveibaatar and Belant, Jerrold L. and Bertassoni, Alessandra and Beyer, Dean and Bidner, Laura and van Beest, Floris M. and Blake, Stephen and Blaum, Niels and Bracis, Chloe and Brown, Danielle and de Bruyn, P. J. Nico and Cagnacci, Francesca and Calabrese, Justin M. and Camilo-Alves, Constanca and Chamaille-Jammes, Simon and Chiaradia, Andre and Davidson, Sarah C. and Dennis, Todd and DeStefano, Stephen and Diefenbach, Duane and Douglas-Hamilton, Iain and Fennessy, Julian and Fichtel, Claudia and Fiedler, Wolfgang and Fischer, Christina and Fischhoff, Ilya and Fleming, Christen H. and Ford, Adam T. and Fritz, Susanne A. and Gehr, Benedikt and Goheen, Jacob R. and Gurarie, Eliezer and Hebblewhite, Mark and Heurich, Marco and Hewison, A. J. Mark and Hof, Christian and Hurme, Edward and Isbell, Lynne A. and Janssen, Rene and Jeltsch, Florian and Kaczensky, Petra and Kane, Adam and Kappeler, Peter M. and Kauffman, Matthew and Kays, Roland and Kimuyu, Duncan and Koch, Flavia and Kranstauber, Bart and LaPoint, Scott and Leimgruber, Peter and Linnell, John D. C. and Lopez-Lopez, Pascual and Markham, A. Catherine and Mattisson, Jenny and Medici, Emilia Patricia and Mellone, Ugo and Merrill, Evelyn and Mourao, Guilherme de Miranda and Morato, Ronaldo G. and Morellet, Nicolas and Morrison, Thomas A. and Diaz-Munoz, Samuel L. and Mysterud, Atle and Nandintsetseg, Dejid and Nathan, Ran and Niamir, Aidin and Odden, John and Oliveira-Santos, Luiz Gustavo R. and Olson, Kirk A. and Patterson, Bruce D. and de Paula, Rogerio Cunha and Pedrotti, Luca and Reineking, Bjorn and Rimmler, Martin and Rogers, Tracey L. and Rolandsen, Christer Moe and Rosenberry, Christopher S. and Rubenstein, Daniel I. and Safi, Kamran and Said, Sonia and Sapir, Nir and Sawyer, Hall and Schmidt, Niels Martin and Selva, Nuria and Sergiel, Agnieszka and Shiilegdamba, Enkhtuvshin and Silva, Joao Paulo and Singh, Navinder and Solberg, Erling J. and Spiegel, Orr and Strand, Olav and Sundaresan, Siva and Ullmann, Wiebke and Voigt, Ulrich and Wall, Jake and Wattles, David and Wikelski, Martin and Wilmers, Christopher C. and Wilson, John W. and Wittemyer, George and Zieba, Filip and Zwijacz-Kozica, Tomasz and Mueller, Thomas}, title = {Moving in the Anthropocene}, series = {Science}, volume = {359}, journal = {Science}, number = {6374}, publisher = {American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0036-8075}, doi = {10.1126/science.aam9712}, pages = {466 -- 469}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Animal movement is fundamental for ecosystem functioning and species survival, yet the effects of the anthropogenic footprint on animal movements have not been estimated across species. Using a unique GPS-tracking database of 803 individuals across 57 species, we found that movements of mammals in areas with a comparatively high human footprint were on average one-half to one-third the extent of their movements in areas with a low human footprint. We attribute this reduction to behavioral changes of individual animals and to the exclusion of species with long-range movements from areas with higher human impact. Global loss of vagility alters a key ecological trait of animals that affects not only population persistence but also ecosystem processes such as predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling, and disease transmission.}, language = {en} } @article{NoonanTuckerFlemingetal.2018, author = {Noonan, Michael J. and Tucker, Marlee A. and Fleming, Christen H. and Akre, Thomas S. and Alberts, Susan C. and Ali, Abdullahi H. and Altmann, Jeanne and Antunes, Pamela Castro and Belant, Jerrold L. and Beyer, Dean and Blaum, Niels and Boehning-Gaese, Katrin and Cullen Jr, Laury and de Paula, Rogerio Cunha and Dekker, Jasja and Drescher-Lehman, Jonathan and Farwig, Nina and Fichtel, Claudia and Fischer, Christina and Ford, Adam T. and Goheen, Jacob R. and Janssen, Rene and Jeltsch, Florian and Kauffman, Matthew and Kappeler, Peter M. and Koch, Flavia and LaPoint, Scott and Markham, A. Catherine and Medici, Emilia Patricia and Morato, Ronaldo G. and Nathan, Ran and Oliveira-Santos, Luiz Gustavo R. and Olson, Kirk A. and Patterson, Bruce D. and Paviolo, Agustin and Ramalho, Emiliano Estero and Rosner, Sascha and Schabo, Dana G. and Selva, Nuria and Sergiel, Agnieszka and da Silva, Marina Xavier and Spiegel, Orr and Thompson, Peter and Ullmann, Wiebke and Zieba, Filip and Zwijacz-Kozica, Tomasz and Fagan, William F. and Mueller, Thomas and Calabrese, Justin M.}, title = {A comprehensive analysis of autocorrelation and bias in home range estimation}, series = {Ecological monographs : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.}, volume = {89}, journal = {Ecological monographs : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.}, number = {2}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0012-9615}, doi = {10.1002/ecm.1344}, pages = {21}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Home range estimation is routine practice in ecological research. While advances in animal tracking technology have increased our capacity to collect data to support home range analysis, these same advances have also resulted in increasingly autocorrelated data. Consequently, the question of which home range estimator to use on modern, highly autocorrelated tracking data remains open. This question is particularly relevant given that most estimators assume independently sampled data. Here, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of autocorrelation on home range estimation. We base our study on an extensive data set of GPS locations from 369 individuals representing 27 species distributed across five continents. We first assemble a broad array of home range estimators, including Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) with four bandwidth optimizers (Gaussian reference function, autocorrelated-Gaussian reference function [AKDE], Silverman's rule of thumb, and least squares cross-validation), Minimum Convex Polygon, and Local Convex Hull methods. Notably, all of these estimators except AKDE assume independent and identically distributed (IID) data. We then employ half-sample cross-validation to objectively quantify estimator performance, and the recently introduced effective sample size for home range area estimation ( N̂ area ) to quantify the information content of each data set. We found that AKDE 95\% area estimates were larger than conventional IID-based estimates by a mean factor of 2. The median number of cross-validated locations included in the hold-out sets by AKDE 95\% (or 50\%) estimates was 95.3\% (or 50.1\%), confirming the larger AKDE ranges were appropriately selective at the specified quantile. Conversely, conventional estimates exhibited negative bias that increased with decreasing N̂ area. To contextualize our empirical results, we performed a detailed simulation study to tease apart how sampling frequency, sampling duration, and the focal animal's movement conspire to affect range estimates. Paralleling our empirical results, the simulation study demonstrated that AKDE was generally more accurate than conventional methods, particularly for small N̂ area. While 72\% of the 369 empirical data sets had >1,000 total observations, only 4\% had an N̂ area >1,000, where 30\% had an N̂ area <30. In this frequently encountered scenario of small N̂ area, AKDE was the only estimator capable of producing an accurate home range estimate on autocorrelated data.}, language = {en} } @article{OlsonAnFanetal.2017, author = {Olson, R. and An, Soon-Il and Fan, Y. and Evans, J. P. and Caesar, Levke}, title = {North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections}, series = {Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system}, volume = {50}, journal = {Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system}, number = {11-12}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {0930-7575}, doi = {10.1007/s00382-017-3867-7}, pages = {4171 -- 4188}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) projections are uncertain due to both model errors, as well as internal climate variability. An AMOC slowdown projected by many climate models is likely to have considerable effects on many aspects of global and North Atlantic climate. Previous studies to make probabilistic AMOC projections have broken new ground. However, they do not drift-correct or cross-validate the projections, and do not fully account for internal variability. Furthermore, they consider a limited subset of models, and ignore the skill of models at representing the temporal North Atlantic dynamics. We improve on previous work by applying Bayesian Model Averaging to weight 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models by their skill at modeling the AMOC strength, and its temporal dynamics, as approximated by the northern North-Atlantic temperature-based AMOC Index. We make drift-corrected projections accounting for structural model errors, and for the internal variability. Cross-validation experiments give approximately correct empirical coverage probabilities, which validates our method. Our results present more evidence that AMOC likely already started slowing down. While weighting considerably moderates and sharpens our projections, our results are at low end of previously published estimates. We project mean AMOC changes between periods 1960-1999 and 2060-2099 of -4.0 Sv and -6.8 Sv for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios respectively. The corresponding average 90\% credible intervals for our weighted experiments are [-7.2, -1.2] and [-10.5, -3.7] Sv respectively for the two scenarios.}, language = {en} } @techreport{BrodeurMikolaCooketal.2024, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Brodeur, Abel and Mikola, Derek and Cook, Nikolai and Brailey, Thomas and Briggs, Ryan and Gendre, Alexandra de and Dupraz, Yannick and Fiala, Lenka and Gabani, Jacopo and Gauriot, Romain and Haddad, Joanne and Lima, Goncalo and Ankel-Peters, J{\"o}rg and Dreber, Anna and Campbell, Douglas and Kattan, Lamis and Fages, Diego Marino and Mierisch, Fabian and Sun, Pu and Wright, Taylor and Connolly, Marie and Hoces de la Guardia, Fernando and Johannesson, Magnus and Miguel, Edward and Vilhuber, Lars and Abarca, Alejandro and Acharya, Mahesh and Adjisse, Sossou Simplice and Akhtar, Ahwaz and Lizardi, Eduardo Alberto Ramirez and Albrecht, Sabina and Andersen, Synve Nygaard and Andlib, Zubaria and Arrora, Falak and Ash, Thomas and Bacher, Etienne and Bachler, Sebastian and Bacon, F{\´e}lix and Bagues, Manuel and Balogh, Timea and Batmanov, Alisher and Barschkett, Mara and Basdil, B. Kaan and Dower, Jaromneda and Castek, Ondrej and Caviglia-Harris, Jill and Strand, Gabriella Chauca and Chen, Shi and Chzhen, Asya and Chung, Jong and Collins, Jason and Coppock, Alexander and Cordeau, Hugo and Couillard, Ben and Crechet, Jonathan and Crippa, Lorenzo and Cui, Jeanne and Czymara, Christian and Daarstad, Haley and Dao, Danh Chi and Dao, Dong and Schmandt, Marco David and Linde, Astrid de and Melo, Lucas De and Deer, Lachlan and Vera, Micole De and Dimitrova, Velichka and Dollbaum, Jan Fabian and Dollbaum, Jan Matti and Donnelly, Michael and Huynh, Luu Duc Toan and Dumbalska, Tsvetomira and Duncan, Jamie and Duong, Kiet Tuan and Duprey, Thibaut and Dworschak, Christoph and Ellingsrud, Sigmund and Elminejad, Ali and Eissa, Yasmine and Erhart, Andrea and Etingin-Frati, Giulian and Fatemi-Pour, Elaheh and Federice, Alexa and Feld, Jan and Fenig, Guidon and Firouzjaeiangalougah, Mojtaba and Fleisje, Erlend and Fortier-Chouinard, Alexandre and Engel, Julia Francesca and Fries, Tilman and Fortier, Reid and Fr{\´e}chet, Nadjim and Galipeau, Thomas and Gallegos, Sebasti{\´a}n and Gangji, Areez and Gao, Xiaoying and Garnache, Clo{\´e} and G{\´a}sp{\´a}r, Attila and Gavrilova, Evelina and Ghosh, Arijit and Gibney, Garreth and Gibson, Grant and Godager, Geir and Goff, Leonard and Gong, Da and Gonz{\´a}lez, Javier and Gretton, Jeremy and Griffa, Cristina and Grigoryeva, Idaliya and Grtting, Maja and Guntermann, Eric and Guo, Jiaqi and Gugushvili, Alexi and Habibnia, Hooman and H{\"a}ffner, Sonja and Hall, Jonathan D. and Hammar, Olle and Kordt, Amund Hanson and Hashimoto, Barry and Hartley, Jonathan S. and Hausladen, Carina I. and Havr{\´a}nek, Tom{\´a}š and Hazen, Jacob and He, Harry and Hepplewhite, Matthew and Herrera-Rodriguez, Mario and Heuer, Felix and Heyes, Anthony and Ho, Anson T. Y. and Holmes, Jonathan and Holzknecht, Armando and Hsu, Yu-Hsiang Dexter and Hu, Shiang-Hung and Huang, Yu-Shiuan and Huebener, Mathias and Huber, Christoph and Huynh, Kim P. and Irsova, Zuzana and Isler, Ozan and Jakobsson, Niklas and Frith, Michael James and Jananji, Rapha{\"e}l and Jayalath, Tharaka A. and Jetter, Michael and John, Jenny and Forshaw, Rachel Joy and Juan, Felipe and Kadriu, Valon and Karim, Sunny and Kelly, Edmund and Dang, Duy Khanh Hoang and Khushboo, Tazia and Kim, Jin and Kjellsson, Gustav and Kjelsrud, Anders and Kotsadam, Andreas and Korpershoek, Jori and Krashinsky, Lewis and Kundu, Suranjana and Kustov, Alexander and Lalayev, Nurlan and Langlois, Audr{\´e}e and Laufer, Jill and Lee-Whiting, Blake and Leibing, Andreas and Lenz, Gabriel and Levin, Joel and Li, Peng and Li, Tongzhe and Lin, Yuchen and Listo, Ariel and Liu, Dan and Lu, Xuewen and Lukmanova, Elvina and Luscombe, Alex and Lusher, Lester R. and Lyu, Ke and Ma, Hai and M{\"a}der, Nicolas and Makate, Clifton and Malmberg, Alice and Maitra, Adit and Mandas, Marco and Marcus, Jan and Margaryan, Shushanik and M{\´a}rk, Lili and Martignano, Andres and Marsh, Abigail and Masetto, Isabella and McCanny, Anthony and McManus, Emma and McWay, Ryan and Metson, Lennard and Kinge, Jonas Minet and Mishra, Sumit and Mohnen, Myra and M{\"o}ller, Jakob and Montambeault, Rosalie and Montpetit, S{\´e}bastien and Morin, Louis-Philippe and Morris, Todd and Moser, Scott and Motoki, Fabio and Muehlenbachs, Lucija and Musulan, Andreea and Musumeci, Marco and Nabin, Munirul and Nchare, Karim and Neubauer, Florian and Nguyen, Quan M. P. and Nguyen, Tuan and Nguyen-Tien, Viet and Niazi, Ali and Nikolaishvili, Giorgi and Nordstrom, Ardyn and N{\"u}, Patrick and Odermatt, Angela and Olson, Matt and ien, Henning and {\"O}lkers, Tim and Vert, Miquel Oliver i. and Oral, Emre and Oswald, Christian and Ousman, Ali and {\"O}zak, {\"O}mer and Pandey, Shubham and Pavlov, Alexandre and Pelli, Martino and Penheiro, Romeo and Park, RyuGyung and Martel, Eva P{\´e}rez and Petrovičov{\´a}, Tereza and Phan, Linh and Prettyman, Alexa and Proch{\´a}zka, Jakub and Putri, Aqila and Quandt, Julian and Qiu, Kangyu and Nguyen, Loan Quynh Thi and Rahman, Andaleeb and Rea, Carson H. and Reiremo, Adam and Ren{\´e}e, La{\"e}titia and Richardson, Joseph and Rivers, Nicholas and Rodrigues, Bruno and Roelofs, William and Roemer, Tobias and Rogeberg, Ole and Rose, Julian and Roskos-Ewoldsen, Andrew and Rosmer, Paul and Sabada, Barbara and Saberian, Soodeh and Salamanca, Nicolas and Sator, Georg and Sawyer, Antoine and Scates, Daniel and Schl{\"u}ter, Elmar and Sells, Cameron and Sen, Sharmi and Sethi, Ritika and Shcherbiak, Anna and Sogaolu, Moyosore and Soosalu, Matt and Srensen, Erik and Sovani, Manali and Spencer, Noah and Staubli, Stefan and Stans, Renske and Stewart, Anya and Stips, Felix and Stockley, Kieran and Strobel, Stephenson and Struby, Ethan and Tang, John and Tanrisever, Idil and Yang, Thomas Tao and Tastan, Ipek and Tatić, Dejan and Tatlow, Benjamin and Seuyong, F{\´e}raud Tchuisseu and Th{\´e}riault, R{\´e}mi and Thivierge, Vincent and Tian, Wenjie and Toma, Filip-Mihai and Totarelli, Maddalena and Tran, Van-Anh and Truong, Hung and Tsoy, Nikita and Tuzcuoglu, Kerem and Ubfal, Diego and Villalobos, Laura and Walterskirchen, Julian and Wang, Joseph Taoyi and Wattal, Vasudha and Webb, Matthew D. and Weber, Bryan and Weisser, Reinhard and Weng, Wei-Chien and Westheide, Christian and White, Kimberly and Winter, Jacob and Wochner, Timo and Woerman, Matt and Wong, Jared and Woodard, Ritchie and Wroński, Marcin and Yazbeck, Myra and Yang, Gustav Chung and Yap, Luther and Yassin, Kareman and Ye, Hao and Yoon, Jin Young and Yurris, Chris and Zahra, Tahreen and Zaneva, Mirela and Zayat, Aline and Zhang, Jonathan and Zhao, Ziwei and Yaolang, Zhong}, title = {Mass reproducibility and replicability}, series = {I4R discussion paper series}, journal = {I4R discussion paper series}, number = {107}, publisher = {Institute for Replication}, address = {Essen}, issn = {2752-1931}, pages = {250}, year = {2024}, abstract = {This study pushes our understanding of research reliability by reproducing and replicating claims from 110 papers in leading economic and political science journals. The analysis involves computational reproducibility checks and robustness assessments. It reveals several patterns. First, we uncover a high rate of fully computationally reproducible results (over 85\%). Second, excluding minor issues like missing packages or broken pathways, we uncover coding errors for about 25\% of studies, with some studies containing multiple errors. Third, we test the robustness of the results to 5,511 re-analyses. We find a robustness reproducibility of about 70\%. Robustness reproducibility rates are relatively higher for re-analyses that introduce new data and lower for re-analyses that change the sample or the definition of the dependent variable. Fourth, 52\% of re-analysis effect size estimates are smaller than the original published estimates and the average statistical significance of a re-analysis is 77\% of the original. Lastly, we rely on six teams of researchers working independently to answer eight additional research questions on the determinants of robustness reproducibility. Most teams find a negative relationship between replicators' experience and reproducibility, while finding no relationship between reproducibility and the provision of intermediate or even raw data combined with the necessary cleaning codes.}, language = {en} }