@article{MeyerSchwanghartKorupetal.2014, author = {Meyer, Nele Kristin and Schwanghart, Wolfgang and Korup, Oliver and Romstad, Bard and Etzelmuller, Bernd}, title = {Estimating the topographic predictability of debris flows}, series = {Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology}, volume = {207}, journal = {Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0169-555X}, doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.10.030}, pages = {114 -- 125}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The Norwegian traffic network is impacted by about 2000 landslides, avalanches, and debris flows each year that incur high economic losses. Despite the urgent need to mitigate future losses, efforts to locate potential debris flow source areas have been rare at the regional scale. We tackle this research gap by exploring a minimal set of possible topographic predictors of debris flow initiation that we input to a Weights-of-Evidence (WofE) model for mapping the regional susceptibility to debris flows in western Norway. We use an inventory of 429 debris flows that were recorded between 1979 and 2008, and use the terrain variables of slope, total curvature, and contributing area (flow accumulation) to compute the posterior probabilities of local debris flow occurrence. The novelty of our approach is that we quantify the uncertainties in the WofE approach arising from different predictor classification schemes and data input, while estimating model accuracy and predictive performance from independent test data. Our results show that a percentile-based classification scheme excels over a manual classification of the predictor variables because differing abundances in manually defined bins reduce the reliability of the conditional independence tests, a key, and often neglected, prerequisite for the WofE method. The conditional dependence between total curvature and flow accumulation precludes their joint use in the model. Slope gradient has the highest true positive rate (88\%), although the fraction of area classified as susceptible is very large (37\%). The predictive performance, i.e. the reduction of false positives, is improved when combined with either total curvature or flow accumulation. Bootstrapping shows that the combination of slope and flow accumulation provides more reliable predictions than the combination of slope and total curvature, and helps refining the use of slope-area plots for identifying morphometric fingerprints of debris flow source areas, an approach used outside the field of landslide susceptibility assessments.}, language = {en} } @misc{BiskabornSmithNoetzlietal.2019, author = {Biskaborn, Boris and Smith, Sharon L. and Noetzli, Jeannette and Matthes, Heidrun and Vieira, Gon{\c{c}}alo and Streletskiy, Dmitry A. and Schoeneich, Philippe and Romanovsky, Vladimir E. and Lewkowicz, Antoni G. and Abramov, Andrey and Allard, Michel and Boike, Julia and Cable, William L. and Christiansen, Hanne H. and Delaloye, Reynald and Diekmann, Bernhard and Drozdov, Dmitry and Etzelm{\"u}ller, Bernd and Große, Guido and Guglielmin, Mauro and Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas and Isaksen, Ketil and Ishikawa, Mamoru and Johansson, Margareta and Joo, Anseok and Kaverin, Dmitry and Kholodov, Alexander and Konstantinov, Pavel and Kr{\"o}ger, Tim and Lambiel, Christophe and Lanckman, Jean-Pierre and Luo, Dongliang and Malkova, Galina and Meiklejohn, Ian and Moskalenko, Natalia and Oliva, Marc and Phillips, Marcia and Ramos, Miguel and Sannel, A. Britta K. and Sergeev, Dmitrii and Seybold, Cathy and Skryabin, Pavel and Vasiliev, Alexander and Wu, Qingbai and Yoshikawa, Kenji and Zheleznyak, Mikhail and Lantuit, Hugues}, title = {Permafrost is warming at a global scale}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {669}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-42534}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-425341}, pages = {11}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007-2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.}, language = {en} }