@article{LudererMadedduMerfortetal.2021,
  author    = {Luderer, Gunnar and Madeddu, Silvia and Merfort, Leon and Ueckerdt, Falko and Pehl, Michaja and Pietzcker, Robert C. and Rottoli, Marianna and Schreyer, Felix and Bauer, Nico and Baumstark, Lavinia and Bertram, Christoph and Dirnaichner, Alois and Humpen{\"o}der, Florian and Levesque, Antoine and Popp, Alexander and Rodrigues, Renato and Strefler, Jessica and Kriegler, Elmar},
  title     = {Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios},
  series = {Nature energy},
  volume    = {7},
  journal   = {Nature energy},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {2058-7546},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41560-021-00937-z},
  pages     = {32 -- 42},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Cost degression in photovoltaics, wind-power and battery storage has been faster than previously anticipated. In the future, climate policy to limit global warming to 1.5-2 °C will make carbon-based fuels increasingly scarce and expensive. Here we show that further progress in solar- and wind-power technology along with carbon pricing to reach the Paris Climate targets could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels. In combination with demand-side innovation, for instance in e-mobility and heat pumps, this is likely to induce a fundamental transformation of energy systems towards a dominance of electricity-based end uses. In a 1.5 °C scenario with limited availability of bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal, electricity could account for 66\% of final energy by mid-century, three times the current levels and substantially higher than in previous climate policy scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The lower production of bioenergy in our high-electrification scenarios markedly reduces energy-related land and water requirements.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MerfortBauerHumpenoederetal.2023,
  author    = {Merfort, Leon and Bauer, Nico and Humpen{\"o}der, Florian and Klein, David and Strefler, Jessica and Popp, Alexander and Luderer, Gunnar and Kriegler, Elmar},
  title     = {Bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions with sectorally fragmented policies},
  series = {Nature climate change},
  volume    = {13},
  journal   = {Nature climate change},
  number    = {7},
  publisher = {Nature Publ. Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {1758-678X},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41558-023-01697-2},
  pages     = {685 -- 692},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Controlling bioenergy-induced land-use-change emissions is key to exploiting bioenergy for climate change mitigation. However, the effect of different land-use and energy sector policies on specific bioenergy emissions has not been studied so far. Using the global integrated assessment model REMIND-MAgPIE, we derive a biofuel emission factor (EF) for different policy frameworks. We find that a uniform price on emissions from both sectors keeps biofuel emissions at 12 kg CO2 GJ-1. However, without land-use regulation, the EF increases substantially (64 kg CO2 GJ-1 over 80 years, 92 kg CO2 GJ-1 over 30 years). We also find that comprehensive coverage (>90\%) of carbon-rich land areas worldwide is key to containing land-use emissions. Pricing emissions indirectly on the level of bioenergy consumption reduces total emissions by cutting bioenergy demand but fails to reduce the average EF. In the absence of comprehensive and timely land-use regulation, bioenergy thus may contribute less to climate change mitigation than assumed previously.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MerfortBauerHumpenoederetal.2023,
  author    = {Merfort, Leon and Bauer, Nico and Humpen{\"o}der, Florian and Klein, David and Strefler, Jessica and Popp, Alexander and Luderer, Gunnar and Kriegler, Elmar},
  title     = {State of global land regulation inadequate to control biofuel land-use-change emissions},
  series = {Nature climate change},
  volume    = {13},
  journal   = {Nature climate change},
  number    = {7},
  publisher = {Nature Publ. Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {1758-678X},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41558-023-01711-7},
  pages     = {610 -- 612},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Under current land-use regulation, carbon dioxide emissions from biofuel production exceed those from fossil diesel combustion. Therefore, international agreements need to ensure the effective and globally comprehensive protection of natural land before modern bioenergy can effectively contribute to achieving carbon neutrality.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SoergelKrieglerBodirskyetal.2021,
  author    = {Soergel, Bjoern and Kriegler, Elmar and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Bauer, Nico and Leimbach, Marian and Popp, Alexander},
  title     = {Combining ambitious climate policies with efforts to eradicate poverty},
  series = {Nature Communications},
  volume    = {12},
  journal   = {Nature Communications},
  publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {2041-1723},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41467-021-22315-9},
  pages     = {12},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Climate change threatens to undermine efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. However, climate policies could impose a financial burden on the global poor through increased energy and food prices. Here, we project poverty rates until 2050 and assess how they are influenced by mitigation policies consistent with the 1.5 degrees C target. A continuation of historical trends will leave 350 million people globally in extreme poverty by 2030. Without progressive redistribution, climate policies would push an additional 50 million people into poverty. However, redistributing the national carbon pricing revenues domestically as an equal-per-capita climate dividend compensates this policy side effect, even leading to a small net reduction of the global poverty headcount (-6 million). An additional international climate finance scheme enables a substantial poverty reduction globally and also in Sub-Saharan Africa. Combining national redistribution with international climate finance thus provides an important entry point to climate policy in developing countries. Ambitious climate policies can negatively impact the global poor by affecting income, food and energy prices. Here, the authors quantify this effect, and show that it can be compensated by national redistribution of the carbon pricing revenues in combination with international climate finance.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SoergelKrieglerWeindletal.2021,
  author    = {Soergel, Bjoern and Kriegler, Elmar and Weindl, Isabelle and Rauner, Sebastian and Dirnaichner, Alois and Ruhe, Constantin and Hofmann, Matthias and Bauer, Nico and Bertram, Christoph and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Leimbach, Marian and Leininger, Julia and Levesque, Antoine and Luderer, Gunnar and Pehl, Michaja and Wingens, Christopher and Baumstark, Lavinia and Beier, Felicitas and Dietrich, Jan Philipp and Humpen{\"o}der, Florian and von Jeetze, Patrick and Klein, David and Koch, Johannes and Pietzcker, Robert C. and Strefler, Jessica and Lotze-Campen, Hermann and Popp, Alexander},
  title     = {A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda},
  series = {Nature climate change},
  volume    = {11},
  journal   = {Nature climate change},
  number    = {8},
  publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {1758-678X},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41558-021-01098-3},
  pages     = {656 -- 664},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Ambitious climate policies, as well as economic development, education, technological progress and less resource-intensive lifestyles, are crucial elements for progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, using an integrated modelling framework covering 56 indicators or proxies across all 17 SDGs, we show that they are insufficient to reach the targets. An additional sustainable development package, including international climate finance, progressive redistribution of carbon pricing revenues, sufficient and healthy nutrition and improved access to modern energy, enables a more comprehensive sustainable development pathway. We quantify climate and SDG outcomes, showing that these interventions substantially boost progress towards many aspects of the UN Agenda 2030 and simultaneously facilitate reaching ambitious climate targets. Nonetheless, several important gaps remain; for example, with respect to the eradication of extreme poverty (180 million people remaining in 2030). These gaps can be closed by 2050 for many SDGs while also respecting the 1.5 °C target and several other planetary boundaries.},
  language  = {en}
}