@article{RitschelCherstvyMetzler2021,
  author    = {Ritschel, Stefan and Cherstvy, Andrey G. and Metzler, Ralf},
  title     = {Universality of delay-time averages for financial time series},
  series = {Journal of physics. Complexity},
  volume    = {2},
  journal   = {Journal of physics. Complexity},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {2632-072X},
  doi       = {10.1088/2632-072X/ac2220},
  pages     = {30},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {We analyze historical data of stock-market prices for multiple financial indices using the concept of delay-time averaging for the financial time series (FTS). The region of validity of our recent theoretical predictions [Cherstvy A G et al 2017 New J. Phys. 19 063045] for the standard and delayed time-averaged mean-squared 'displacements' (TAMSDs) of the historical FTS is extended to all lag times. As the first novel element, we perform extensive computer simulations of the stochastic differential equation describing geometric Brownian motion (GBM) which demonstrate a quantitative agreement with the analytical long-term price-evolution predictions in terms of the delayed TAMSD (for all stock-market indices in crisis-free times). Secondly, we present a robust procedure of determination of the model parameters of GBM via fitting the features of the price-evolution dynamics in the FTS for stocks and cryptocurrencies. The employed concept of single-trajectory-based time averaging can serve as a predictive tool (proxy) for a mathematically based assessment and rationalization of probabilistic trends in the evolution of stock-market prices.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{CherstvyVinodAghionetal.2021,
  author    = {Cherstvy, Andrey G. and Vinod, Deepak and Aghion, Erez and Sokolov, Igor M. and Metzler, Ralf},
  title     = {Scaled geometric Brownian motion features sub- or superexponential ensemble-averaged, but linear time-averaged mean-squared displacements},
  series = {Physical review : E, Statistical, nonlinear and soft matter physics},
  volume    = {103},
  journal   = {Physical review : E, Statistical, nonlinear and soft matter physics},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {American Physical Society},
  address   = {College Park},
  issn      = {2470-0045},
  doi       = {10.1103/PhysRevE.103.062127},
  pages     = {11},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Various mathematical Black-Scholes-Merton-like models of option pricing employ the paradigmatic stochastic process of geometric Brownian motion (GBM). The innate property of such models and of real stock-market prices is the roughly exponential growth of prices with time [on average, in crisis-free times]. We here explore the ensemble- and time averages of a multiplicative-noise stochastic process with power-law-like time-dependent volatility, sigma(t) similar to t(alpha), named scaled GBM (SGBM). For SGBM, the mean-squared displacement (MSD) computed for an ensemble of statistically equivalent trajectories can grow faster than exponentially in time, while the time-averaged MSD (TAMSD)-based on a sliding-window averaging along a single trajectory-is always linear at short lag times Delta. The proportionality factor between these the two averages of the time series is Delta/T at short lag times, where T is the trajectory length, similarly to GBM. This discrepancy of the scaling relations and pronounced nonequivalence of the MSD and TAMSD at Delta/T << 1 is a manifestation of weak ergodicity breaking for standard GBM and for SGBM with s (t)-modulation, the main focus of our analysis. The analytical predictions for the MSD and mean TAMSD for SGBM are in quantitative agreement with the results of stochastic computer simulations.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{CherstvySafdariMetzler2021,
  author    = {Cherstvy, Andrey G. and Safdari, Hadiseh and Metzler, Ralf},
  title     = {Anomalous diffusion, nonergodicity, and ageing for exponentially and logarithmically time-dependent diffusivity},
  series = {Journal of physics. D, Applied physics},
  volume    = {54},
  journal   = {Journal of physics. D, Applied physics},
  number    = {19},
  publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {0022-3727},
  doi       = {10.1088/1361-6463/abdff0},
  pages     = {18},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {We investigate a diffusion process with a time-dependent diffusion coefficient, both exponentially increasing and decreasing in time, D(t)=D-0(e +/- 2 alpha t). For this (hypothetical) nonstationary diffusion process we compute-both analytically and from extensive stochastic simulations-the behavior of the ensemble- and time-averaged mean-squared displacements (MSDs) of the particles, both in the over- and underdamped limits. Simple asymptotic relations derived for the short- and long-time behaviors are shown to be in excellent agreement with the results of simulations. The diffusive characteristics in the presence of ageing are also considered, with dramatic differences of the over- versus underdamped regime. Our results for D(t)=D-0(e +/- 2 alpha t) extend and generalize the class of diffusive systems obeying scaled Brownian motion featuring a power-law-like variation of the diffusivity with time, D(t) similar to t(alpha-1). We also examine the logarithmically increasing diffusivity, D(t)=D(0)log[t/tau(0)], as another fundamental functional dependence (in addition to the power-law and exponential) and as an example of diffusivity slowly varying in time. One of the main conclusions is that the behavior of the massive particles is predominantly ergodic, while weak ergodicity breaking is repeatedly found for the time-dependent diffusion of the massless particles at short times. The latter manifests itself in the nonequivalence of the (both nonaged and aged) MSD and the mean time-averaged MSD. The current findings are potentially applicable to a class of physical systems out of thermal equilibrium where a rapid increase or decrease of the particles' diffusivity is inherently realized. One biological system potentially featuring all three types of time-dependent diffusion (power-law-like, exponential, and logarithmic) is water diffusion in the brain tissues, as we thoroughly discuss in the end.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{WangCherstvyKantzetal.2021,
  author    = {Wang, Wei and Cherstvy, Andrey G. and Kantz, Holger and Metzler, Ralf and Sokolov, Igor M.},
  title     = {Time averaging and emerging nonergodicity upon resetting of fractional Brownian motion and heterogeneous diffusion processes},
  series = {Physical review : E, Statistical, nonlinear and soft matter physics},
  volume    = {104},
  journal   = {Physical review : E, Statistical, nonlinear and soft matter physics},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {American Institute of Physics},
  address   = {Woodbury, NY},
  issn      = {2470-0045},
  doi       = {10.1103/PhysRevE.104.024105},
  pages     = {27},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {How different are the results of constant-rate resetting of anomalous-diffusion processes in terms of their ensemble-averaged versus time-averaged mean-squared displacements (MSDs versus TAMSDs) and how does stochastic resetting impact nonergodicity? We examine, both analytically and by simulations, the implications of resetting on the MSD- and TAMSD-based spreading dynamics of particles executing fractional Brownian motion (FBM) with a long-time memory, heterogeneous diffusion processes (HDPs) with a power-law space-dependent diffusivity D(x) = D0|x|gamma and their "combined" process of HDP-FBM. We find, inter alia, that the resetting dynamics of originally ergodic FBM for superdiffusive Hurst exponents develops disparities in scaling and magnitudes of the MSDs and mean TAMSDs indicating weak ergodicity breaking. For subdiffusive HDPs we also quantify the nonequivalence of the MSD and TAMSD and observe a new trimodal form of the probability density function. For reset FBM, HDPs and HDP-FBM we compute analytically and verify by simulations the short-time MSD and TAMSD asymptotes and long-time plateaus reminiscent of those for processes under confinement. We show that certain characteristics of these reset processes are functionally similar despite a different stochastic nature of their nonreset variants. Importantly, we discover nonmonotonicity of the ergodicitybreaking parameter EB as a function of the resetting rate r. For all reset processes studied we unveil a pronounced resetting-induced nonergodicity with a maximum of EB at intermediate r and EB similar to(1/r )-decay at large r. Alongside the emerging MSD-versus-TAMSD disparity, this r-dependence of EB can be an experimentally testable prediction. We conclude by discussing some implications to experimental systems featuring resetting dynamics.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KlettCherstvyShinetal.2021,
  author    = {Klett, Kolja and Cherstvy, Andrey G. and Shin, Jaeoh and Sokolov, Igor M. and Metzler, Ralf},
  title     = {Non-Gaussian, transiently anomalous, and ergodic self-diffusion of flexible dumbbells in crowded two-dimensional environments},
  series = {Physical review : E, Statistical, nonlinear and soft matter physics},
  volume    = {104},
  journal   = {Physical review : E, Statistical, nonlinear and soft matter physics},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {American Physical Society},
  address   = {College Park},
  issn      = {2470-0045},
  doi       = {10.1103/PhysRevE.104.064603},
  pages     = {18},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {We employ Langevin-dynamics simulations to unveil non-Brownian and non-Gaussian center-of-mass self-diffusion of massive flexible dumbbell-shaped particles in crowded two-dimensional solutions. We study the intradumbbell dynamics of the relative motion of the two constituent elastically coupled disks. Our main focus is on effects of the crowding fraction phi and of the particle structure on the diffusion characteristics. We evaluate the time-averaged mean-squared displacement (TAMSD), the displacement probability-density function (PDF), and the displacement autocorrelation function (ACF) of the dimers. For the TAMSD at highly crowded conditions of dumbbells, e.g., we observe a transition from the short-time ballistic behavior, via an intermediate subdiffusive regime, to long-time Brownian-like spreading dynamics. The crowded system of dimers exhibits two distinct diffusion regimes distinguished by the scaling exponent of the TAMSD, the dependence of the diffusivity on phi, and the features of the displacement-ACF. We attribute these regimes to a crowding-induced transition from viscous to viscoelastic diffusion upon growing phi. We also analyze the relative motion in the dimers, finding that larger phi suppress their vibrations and yield strongly non-Gaussian PDFs of rotational displacements. For the diffusion coefficients D(phi) of translational and rotational motion of the dumbbells an exponential decay with phi for weak and a power-law variation D(phi) proportional to (phi - phi(star))(2.4) for strong crowding is found. A comparison of simulation results with theoretical predictions for D(phi) is discussed and some relevant experimental systems are overviewed.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{CherstvyWangMetzleretal.2021,
  author    = {Cherstvy, Andrey G. and Wang, Wei and Metzler, Ralf and Sokolov, Igor M.},
  title     = {Inertia triggers nonergodicity of fractional Brownian motion},
  series = {Physical review : E, Statistical, nonlinear and soft matter physics},
  volume    = {104},
  journal   = {Physical review : E, Statistical, nonlinear and soft matter physics},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {American Physical Society},
  address   = {College Park},
  issn      = {2470-0045},
  doi       = {10.1103/PhysRevE.104.024115},
  pages     = {12},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {How related are the ergodic properties of the over- and underdamped Langevin equations driven by fractional Gaussian noise? We here find that for massive particles performing fractional Brownian motion (FBM) inertial effects not only destroy the stylized fact of the equivalence of the ensemble-averaged mean-squared displacement (MSD) to the time-averaged MSD (TAMSD) of overdamped or massless FBM, but also dramatically alter the values of the ergodicity-breaking parameter (EB). Our theoretical results for the behavior of EB for underdamped or massive FBM for varying particle mass m, Hurst exponent H, and trace length T are in excellent agreement with the findings of stochastic computer simulations. The current results can be of interest for the experimental community employing various single-particle-tracking techniques and aiming at assessing the degree of nonergodicity for the recorded time series (studying, e.g., the behavior of EB versus lag time). To infer FBM as a realizable model of anomalous diffusion for a set single-particle-tracking data when massive particles are being tracked, the EBs from the data should be compared to EBs of massive (rather than massless) FBM.},
  language  = {en}
}