@article{BronstertAgarwalBoessenkooletal.2018,
  author    = {Bronstert, Axel and Agarwal, Ankit and Boessenkool, Berry and Crisologo, Irene and Fischer, Madlen and Heistermann, Maik and Koehn-Reich, Lisei and Andres Lopez-Tarazon, Jose and Moran, Thomas and Ozturk, Ugur and Reinhardt-Imjela, Christian and Wendi, Dadiyorto},
  title     = {Forensic hydro-meteorological analysis of an extreme flash flood},
  series = {The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man},
  volume    = {630},
  journal   = {The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0048-9697},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.241},
  pages     = {977 -- 991},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {The flash-flood in Braunsbach in the north-eastern part of Baden-Wuerttemberg/Germany was a particularly strong and concise event which took place during the floods in southern Germany at the end of May/early June 2016. This article presents a detailed analysis of the hydro-meteorological forcing and the hydrological consequences of this event. A specific approach, the "forensic hydrological analysis" was followed in order to include and combine retrospectively a variety of data from different disciplines. Such an approach investigates the origins, mechanisms and course of such natural events if possible in a "near real time" mode, in order to follow the most recent traces of the event. The results show that it was a very rare rainfall event with extreme intensities which, in combination with catchment properties, led to extreme runoff plus severe geomorphological hazards, i.e. great debris flows, which together resulted in immense damage in this small rural town Braunsbach. It was definitely a record-breaking event and greatly exceeded existing design guidelines for extreme flood discharge for this region, i.e. by a factor of about 10. Being such a rare or even unique event, it is not reliably feasible to put it into a crisp probabilistic context. However, one can conclude that a return period clearly above 100 years can be assigned for all event components: rainfall, peak discharge and sediment transport. Due to the complex and interacting processes, no single flood cause or reason for the very high damage can be identified, since only the interplay and the cascading characteristics of those led to such an event. The roles of different human activities on the origin and/or intensification of such an extreme event are finally discussed. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BoessenkoolBruegerHeistermann2017,
  author    = {Boessenkool, Berry and Br{\"u}ger, Gerd and Heistermann, Maik},
  title     = {Effects of sample size on estimation of rainfall extremes at high temperatures},
  series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  volume    = {17},
  journal   = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  number    = {9},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1561-8633},
  doi       = {10.5194/nhess-17-1623-2017},
  pages     = {1623 -- 1629},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{BoessenkoolBruegerHeistermann2017,
  author    = {Boessenkool, Berry and Br{\"u}ger, Gerd and Heistermann, Maik},
  title     = {Effects of sample size on estimation of rainfall extremes at high temperatures},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-403897},
  pages     = {7},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{EtteErfurthPommereningetal.2017,
  author    = {Ette, Ottmar and Erfurth, Nicole and Pommerening, Matthias and Kurz, Verena and von Lintig, Johannes and Funke, Alma Johanna and Mannel, Sylvio and Boessenkool, Berry and Wunderlich, Ralf and Pflanz, Ulrike and M{\"u}lling, Eric and Knoppe, Franz and G{\"u}nther, Oliver and Alkan, Hilal},
  title     = {Portal alumni},
  series = {Das Ehemaligen-Magazin der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  journal   = {Das Ehemaligen-Magazin der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  address   = {72},
  organization    = {Stabsstelle Studierendenmarketing/Alumniprogramm Im Auftrag der Pr{\"a}sidentin der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  issn      = {1613-2343},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-44541},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-445410},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Die Universit{\"a}t Potsdam verlieh am 22. Juni 2017 an die t{\"u}rkische Politologin Hilal Alkan erstmals den „Voltaire-Preis f{\"u}r Toleranz und V{\"o}lkerverst{\"a}ndigung und Respekt vor Differenz". Mit dem Preis ehrt die Universit{\"a}t k{\"u}nftig einmal j{\"a}hrlich eine Person, die sich f{\"u}r die Freiheit von Forschung und Lehre sowie f{\"u}r das Recht auf freie Meinungs{\"a}ußerung eingesetzt hat. Voltaire wurde Namensgeber des Preises, weil er als Vordenker f{\"u}r den gesellschaftlichen Toleranz-Gedankens z{\"a}hlt. Sein Pl{\"a}doyer f{\"u}r Toleranz zwischen den Religionen, gegen Fanatismus und Aberglauben ist heute so aktuell wie lange nicht. Die Stadt Potsdam und ihre Universit{\"a}t sind mit Voltaire, der Aufkl{\"a}rungsepoche und dem Toleranzgedanken eng verbunden. In Potsdam lebt der Geist der Aufkl{\"a}rung und Toleranz, was im Leitbild der Stadt {\"o}ffentlich dokumentiert ist. Gelebt wird dieser Geist in Projekten wie dem „Neuen Potsdamer Toleranzedikt von 2008" oder dem B{\"u}ndnis „Potsdam bekennt Farbe", an dem die Universit{\"a}t Potsdam beteiligt ist. Auch Ehemalige der Universit{\"a}t engagieren sich f{\"u}r Frieden, Toleranz und Demokratieentwicklung. Da liegt es nahe das Thema zum inhaltlichen Schwerpunkt des Ihnen hier vorliegenden Magazins zu machen. Auf unseren Aufruf zur Mitwirkung meldeten sich rund 50 Ehemalige aus aller Welt, die von ihren Engagements berichteten. Eine Auswahl von 12 Berichten pr{\"a}sentieren wir in diesem Heft. Mit dabei ist etwa Geo{\"o}kologe Sylvio Mannel, der in einem amerikanischen Indianerreservat gearbeitet und die Lakota bei der R{\"u}ckbesinnung auf ihre stolze Tradition unterst{\"u}tzt hat. Oder Nicole Erfurth, die afghanischen M{\"a}dchen eine gute Schulbildung erm{\"o}glichen will. Oder aber Ralf Wunderlich, der als Profitrainer f{\"u}r Fußball nach Finnland auswanderte und nun mit Fl{\"u}chtlingen trainiert. In diesem Heft stellen wir auch aktuelle Projekte Ihrer Alma Mater zu diesem Themenkomplex vor und berichten dar{\"u}ber hinaus von den H{\"o}hepunkten des Jahres 2017.},
  language  = {de}
}
@techreport{AgarwalBoessenkoolFischeretal.2016,
  author    = {Agarwal, Ankit and Boessenkool, Berry and Fischer, Madlen and Hahn, Irene and K{\"o}hn, Lisei and Laudan, Jonas and Moran, Thomas and {\"O}zt{\"u}rk, Ugur and Riemer, Adrian and R{\"o}zer, Viktor and Sieg, Tobias and Vogel, Kristin and Wendi, Dadiyorto and Bronstert, Axel and Thieken, Annegret},
  title     = {Die Sturzflut in Braunsbach, Mai 2016},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-394881},
  pages     = {20},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Im Graduiertenkolleg NatRiskChange der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam und anderen Forschungseinrichtungen werden beobachtete sowie zuk{\"u}nftig m{\"o}gliche Ver{\"a}nderungen von Naturgefahren untersucht. Teil des strukturierten Doktorandenprogramms sind sogenannte Task-Force-Eins{\"a}tze, bei denen die Promovierende zeitlich begrenzt ein aktuelles Ereignis auswerten. Im Zuge dieser Aktivit{\"a}t wurde die Sturzflut vom 29.05.2016 in Braunsbach (Baden-W{\"u}rttemberg) untersucht. In diesem Bericht werden erste Auswertungen zur Einordnung der Niederschl{\"a}ge, zu den hydrologischen und geomorphologischen Prozessen im Einzugsgebiet des Orlacher Bachs sowie zu den verursachten Sch{\"a}den beleuchtet. Die Region war Zentrum extremer Regenf{\"a}lle in der Gr{\"o}ßenordnung von 100 mm innerhalb von 2 Stunden. Das 6 km² kleine Einzugsgebiet hat eine sehr schnelle Reaktionszeit, zumal bei vorges{\"a}ttigtem Boden. Im steilen Bachtal haben mehrere kleinere und gr{\"o}ßere Hangrutschungen {\"u}ber 8000 m³ Ger{\"o}ll, Schutt und Schwemmholz in das Gew{\"a}sser eingetragen und m{\"o}glicherweise kurzzeitige Aufstauungen und Durchbr{\"u}che verursacht. Neben den großen Wassermengen mit einer Abflussspitze in einer Gr{\"o}ßenordnung von 100 m³/s hat gerade die Geschiebefracht zu großen Sch{\"a}den an den Geb{\"a}uden entlang des Bachlaufs in Braunsbach gef{\"u}hrt.},
  language  = {de}
}