@article{LewkowiczBoettingerSiegel2023,
  author    = {Lewkowicz, Daniel and B{\"o}ttinger, Erwin and Siegel, Martin},
  title     = {Economic evaluation of digital therapeutic care apps for unsupervised treatment of low back pain},
  series = {JMIR mhealth and uhealth},
  volume    = {11},
  journal   = {JMIR mhealth and uhealth},
  publisher = {JMIR Publications},
  address   = {Toronto},
  issn      = {2291-5222},
  doi       = {10.2196/44585},
  pages     = {14},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Background: Digital therapeutic care (DTC) programs are unsupervised app-based treatments that provide video exercises and educational material to patients with nonspecific low back pain during episodes of pain and functional disability. German statutory health insurance can reimburse DTC programs since 2019, but evidence on efficacy and reasonable pricing remains scarce. This paper presents a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) to evaluate the efficacy and cost-utility of a DTC app against treatment as usual (TAU) in Germany. Objective: The aim of this study was to perform a PSA in the form of a Monte Carlo simulation based on the deterministic base case analysis to account for model assumptions and parameter uncertainty. We also intend to explore to what extent the results in this probabilistic analysis differ from the results in the base case analysis and to what extent a shortage of outcome data concerning quality-of-life (QoL) metrics impacts the overall results. Methods: The PSA builds upon a state-transition Markov chain with a 4-week cycle length over a model time horizon of 3 years from a recently published deterministic cost-utility analysis. A Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations and a cohort size of 10,000 was employed to evaluate the cost-utility from a societal perspective. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were derived from Veterans RAND 6-Dimension (VR-6D) and Short-Form 6-Dimension (SF-6D) single utility scores. Finally, we also simulated reducing the price for a 3-month app prescription to analyze at which price threshold DTC would result in being the dominant strategy over TAU in Germany. Results: The Monte Carlo simulation yielded on average a euro135.97 (a currency exchange rate of EUR euro1=US \$1.069 is applicable) incremental cost and 0.004 incremental QALYs per person and year for the unsupervised DTC app strategy compared to in-person physiotherapy in Germany. The corresponding incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) amounts to an additional euro34,315.19 per additional QALY. DTC yielded more QALYs in 54.96\% of the iterations. DTC dominates TAU in 24.04\% of the iterations for QALYs. Reducing the app price in the simulation from currently euro239.96 to euro164.61 for a 3-month prescription could yield a negative ICUR and thus make DTC the dominant strategy, even though the estimated probability of DTC being more effective than TAU is only 54.96\%. Conclusions: Decision-makers should be cautious when considering the reimbursement of DTC apps since no significant treatment effect was found, and the probability of cost-effectiveness remains below 60\% even for an infinite willingness-to-pay threshold. More app-based studies involving the utilization of QoL outcome parameters are urgently needed to account for the low and limited precision of the available QoL input parameters, which are crucial to making profound recommendations concerning the cost-utility of novel apps.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{NomosatryoTjallingiiHennyetal.2022,
  author    = {Nomosatryo, Sulung and Tjallingii, Rik and Henny, Cynthia and Ridwansyah, Iwan and Wagner, Dirk and Tom{\´a}s, Sara and Kallmeyer, Jens},
  title     = {Surface sediment composition and depositional environments in tropical Lake Sentani, Papua Province, Indonesia},
  series = {Journal of Paleolimnology},
  journal   = {Journal of Paleolimnology},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Dordrecht},
  issn      = {0921-2728},
  doi       = {10.1007/s10933-022-00259-4},
  pages     = {20},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Tropical Lake Sentani in the Indonesian Province Papua consists of four separate basins and is surrounded by a catchment with a very diverse geology. We characterized the surface sediment (upper 5 cm) of the lake's four sub-basins based on multivariate statistical analyses (principal component analysis, hierarchical clustering) of major element compositions obtained by X-ray fluorescence scanning. Three types of sediment are identified based on distinct compositional differences between rivers, shallow/proximal and deep/distal lake sediments. The different sediment types are mainly characterized by the correlation of elements associated with redox processes (S, Mn, Fe), carbonates (Ca), and detrital input (Ti, Al, Si, K) derived by river discharge. The relatively coarse-grained river sediments mainly derive form the mafic catchment geology and contribution of the limestone catchment geology is only limited. Correlation of redox sensitive and detrital elements are used to reveal oxidation conditions, and indicate oxic conditions in river samples and reducing conditions for lake sediments. Organic carbon (TOC) generally correlates with redox sensitive elements, although a correlation between TOC and individual elements change strongly between the three sediment types. Pyrite is the quantitatively dominant reduced sulfur mineral, monosulfides only reach appreciable concentrations in samples from rivers draining mafic and ultramafic catchments. Our study shows large spatial heterogeneity within the lake's sub-basins that is mainly caused by catchment geology and topography, river runoff as well as the bathymetry and the depth of the oxycline. We show that knowledge about lateral heterogeneity is crucial for understanding the geochemical and sedimentological variations recorded by these sediments. The highly variable conditions make Lake Sentani a natural laboratory, with its different sub-basins representing different depositional environments under identical tropical climate conditions.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{VollbrechtBrus2020,
  author    = {Vollbrecht, Joachim and Brus, Viktor V.},
  title     = {On the recombination order of surface recombination under open circuit conditions},
  series = {Organic electronics : physics, materials and applications},
  volume    = {86},
  journal   = {Organic electronics : physics, materials and applications},
  publisher = {Elsevier Science},
  address   = {Amsterdam [u.a.]},
  issn      = {1566-1199},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.orgel.2020.105905},
  pages     = {7},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Understanding the recombination dynamics of organic and perovskite solar cells has been a crucial prerequisite in the steadily increasing performance of these promising new types of photovoltaics. Surface recombination in particular has turned out to be one of the last remaining roadblocks, which specifically reduces the open circuit voltage. In this study, the relationship between the rate of surface recombination and the density of charge carriers is analyzed, revealing a cubic dependence between these two parameters. This hypothesis is then tested and verified with the recombination dynamics of an organic solar cell known to exhibit significant surface recombination and a high energy proton irradiated CH3NH3PbI3 pemvskite solar cell during white light illumination. Incidentally, these results can also explain recombination orders exceeding the commonly known threshold for bimolecular recombination that have been observed in some studies without the need for a charge carrier dependent bimolecular recombination coefficient.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DoerrKrejca2020,
  author    = {Doerr, Benjamin and Krejca, Martin S.},
  title     = {Significance-based estimation-of-distribution algorithms},
  series = {IEEE transactions on evolutionary computation},
  volume    = {24},
  journal   = {IEEE transactions on evolutionary computation},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers},
  address   = {New York, NY},
  issn      = {1089-778X},
  doi       = {10.1109/TEVC.2019.2956633},
  pages     = {1025 -- 1034},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Estimation-of-distribution algorithms (EDAs) are randomized search heuristics that create a probabilistic model of the solution space, which is updated iteratively, based on the quality of the solutions sampled according to the model. As previous works show, this iteration-based perspective can lead to erratic updates of the model, in particular, to bit-frequencies approaching a random boundary value. In order to overcome this problem, we propose a new EDA based on the classic compact genetic algorithm (cGA) that takes into account a longer history of samples and updates its model only with respect to information which it classifies as statistically significant. We prove that this significance-based cGA (sig-cGA) optimizes the commonly regarded benchmark functions OneMax (OM), LeadingOnes, and BinVal all in quasilinear time, a result shown for no other EDA or evolutionary algorithm so far. For the recently proposed stable compact genetic algorithm-an EDA that tries to prevent erratic model updates by imposing a bias to the uniformly distributed model-we prove that it optimizes OM only in a time exponential in its hypothetical population size. Similarly, we show that the convex search algorithm cannot optimize OM in polynomial time.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{ZoellerHainzlTilmannetal.2020,
  author    = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Hainzl, Sebastian and Tilmann, Frederik and Woith, Heiko and Dahm, Torsten},
  title     = {Comment on: Wikelski, Martin; M{\"u}ller, Uschi; Scocco, Paola; Catorci, Andrea; Desinov, Lev V.; Belyaev, Mikhail Y.; Keim, Daniel A.; Pohlmeier, Winfried; Fechteler, Gerhard; Mai, Martin P. : Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring. - Ethology. - 126 (2020), 9. - S. 931 - 941. -ISSN 0179-1613. - eISSN 1439-0310. - doi 10.1111/eth.13078},
  series = {Ethology},
  volume    = {127},
  journal   = {Ethology},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0179-1613},
  doi       = {10.1111/eth.13105},
  pages     = {302 -- 306},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Based on an analysis of continuous monitoring of farm animal behavior in the region of the 2016 M6.6 Norcia earthquake in Italy, Wikelski et al., 2020; (Seismol Res Lett, 89, 2020, 1238) conclude that animal activity can be anticipated with subsequent seismic activity and that this finding might help to design a "short-term earthquake forecasting method." We show that this result is based on an incomplete analysis and misleading interpretations. Applying state-of-the-art methods of statistics, we demonstrate that the proposed anticipatory patterns cannot be distinguished from random patterns, and consequently, the observed anomalies in animal activity do not have any forecasting power.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{Metzler2020,
  author    = {Metzler, Ralf},
  title     = {Superstatistics and non-Gaussian diffusion},
  series = {The European physical journal special topics},
  volume    = {229},
  journal   = {The European physical journal special topics},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Heidelberg},
  issn      = {1951-6355},
  doi       = {10.1140/epjst/e2020-900210-x},
  pages     = {711 -- 728},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Brownian motion and viscoelastic anomalous diffusion in homogeneous environments are intrinsically Gaussian processes. In a growing number of systems, however, non-Gaussian displacement distributions of these processes are being reported. The physical cause of the non-Gaussianity is typically seen in different forms of disorder. These include, for instance, imperfect "ensembles" of tracer particles, the presence of local variations of the tracer mobility in heteroegenous environments, or cases in which the speed or persistence of moving nematodes or cells are distributed. From a theoretical point of view stochastic descriptions based on distributed ("superstatistical") transport coefficients as well as time-dependent generalisations based on stochastic transport parameters with built-in finite correlation time are invoked. After a brief review of the history of Brownian motion and the famed Gaussian displacement distribution, we here provide a brief introduction to the phenomenon of non-Gaussianity and the stochastic modelling in terms of superstatistical and diffusing-diffusivity approaches.},
  language  = {en}
}