@misc{ZollDiehlSiebert2019,
  author    = {Zoll, Felix and Diehl, Katharina and Siebert, Rosemarie},
  title     = {Integrating sustainability goals in innovation processes},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {1036},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-47342},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-473420},
  pages     = {17},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {The innovative dual-purpose chicken approach aims at contributing to the transition towards sustainable poultry production by avoiding the culling of male chickens. To successfully integrate sustainability aspects into innovation, goal congruency among actors and clearly communicating the added value within the actor network and to consumers is needed. The challenge of identifying common sustainability goals calls for decision support tools. The objectives of our research were to investigate whether the tool could assist in improving communication and marketing with respect to sustainability and optimizing the value chain organization. Three actor groups participated in the tool application, in which quantitative and qualitative data were collected. The results showed that there were manifold sustainability goals within the innovation network, but only some goals overlapped, and the perception of their implementation also diverged. While easily marketable goals such as 'animal welfare' were perceived as being largely implemented, economic goals were prioritized less often, and the implementation was perceived as being rather low. By visualizing congruencies and differences in the goals, the tool helped identify fields of action, such as improved information flows and prompted thinking processes. We conclude that the tool is useful for managing complex decision processes with several actors involved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{AyzelIzhitskiy2019,
  author    = {Ayzel, Georgy and Izhitskiy, Alexander},
  title     = {Climate change impact assessment on freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {1071},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-47279},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-472794},
  pages     = {21},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {During the last few decades, the rapid separation of the Small Aral Sea from the isolated basin has changed its hydrological and ecological conditions tremendously. In the present study, we developed and validated the hybrid model for the Syr Darya River basin based on a combination of state-of-the-art hydrological and machine learning models. Climate change impact on freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea for the projection period 2007-2099 has been quantified based on the developed hybrid model and bias corrected and downscaled meteorological projections simulated by four General Circulation Models (GCM) for each of three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP). The developed hybrid model reliably simulates freshwater inflow for the historical period with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.72 and a Kling-Gupta efficiency of 0.77. Results of the climate change impact assessment showed that the freshwater inflow projections produced by different GCMs are misleading by providing contradictory results for the projection period. However, we identified that the relative runoff changes are expected to be more pronounced in the case of more aggressive RCP scenarios. The simulated projections of freshwater inflow provide a basis for further assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological and ecological conditions of the Small Aral Sea in the 21st Century.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{HellwigTattiSartorietal.2019,
  author    = {Hellwig, Niels and Tatti, Dylan and Sartori, Giacomo and Anschlag, Kerstin and Graefe, Ulfert and Egli, Markus and Gobat, Jean-Michel and Broll, Gabriele},
  title     = {Modeling spatial patterns of humus forms in montane and subalpine forests},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {1128},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-47226},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-472265},
  pages     = {17},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Humus forms are a distinctive morphological indicator of soil organic matter decomposition. The spatial distribution of humus forms depends on environmental factors such as topography, climate and vegetation. In montane and subalpine forests, environmental influences show a high spatial heterogeneity, which is reflected by a high spatial variability of humus forms. This study aims at examining spatial patterns of humus forms and their dependence on the spatial scale in a high mountain forest environment (Val di Sole/Val di Rabbi, Trentino, Italian Alps). On the basis of the distributions of environmental covariates across the study area, we described humus forms at the local scale (six sampling sites), slope scale (60 sampling sites) and landscape scale (30 additional sampling sites). The local variability of humus forms was analyzed with regard to the ground cover type. At the slope and landscape scale, spatial patterns of humus forms were modeled applying random forests and ordinary kriging of the model residuals. The results indicate that the occurrence of the humus form classes Mull, Mullmoder, Moder, Amphi and Eroded Moder generally depends on the topographical position. Local-scale patterns are mostly related to micro-topography (local accumulation and erosion sites) and ground cover, whereas slope-scale patterns are mainly connected with slope exposure and elevation. Patterns at the landscape scale show a rather irregular distribution, as spatial models at this scale do not account for local to slope-scale variations of humus forms. Moreover, models at the slope scale perform distinctly better than at the landscape scale. In conclusion, the results of this study highlight that landscape-scale predictions of humus forms should be accompanied by local- and slope-scale studies in order to enhance the general understanding of humus form patterns.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{HellwigWalzMarkovic2019,
  author    = {Hellwig, Niels and Walz, Ariane and Markovic, Danijela},
  title     = {Climatic and socioeconomic effects on land cover changes across Europe},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {764},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-43788},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-437885},
  pages     = {22},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Land cover change is a dynamic phenomenon driven by synergetic biophysical and socioeconomic effects. It involves massive transitions from natural to less natural habitats and thereby threatens ecosystems and the services they provide. To retain intact ecosystems and reduce land cover change to a minimum of natural transition processes, a dense network of protected areas has been established across Europe. However, even protected areas and in particular the zones around protected areas have been shown to undergo land cover changes. The aim of our study was to compare land cover changes in protected areas, non-protected areas, and 1 km buffer zones around protected areas and analyse their relationship to climatic and socioeconomic factors across Europe between 2000 and 2012 based on earth observation data. We investigated land cover flows describing major change processes: urbanisation, afforestation, deforestation, intensification of agriculture, extensification of agriculture, and formation of water bodies. Based on boosted regression trees, we modelled correlations between land cover flows and climatic and socioeconomic factors. The results show that land cover changes were most frequent in 1 km buffer zones around protected areas (3.0\% of all buffer areas affected). Overall, land cover changes within protected areas were less frequent than outside, although they still amounted to 18,800 km2 (1.5\% of all protected areas) from 2000 to 2012. In some parts of Europe, urbanisation and intensification of agriculture still accounted for up to 25\% of land cover changes within protected areas. Modelling revealed meaningful relationships between land cover changes and a combination of influencing factors. Demographic factors (accessibility to cities and population density) were most important for coarse-scale patterns of land cover changes, whereas fine-scale patterns were most related to longitude (representing the general east/west economic gradient) and latitude (representing the north/south climatic gradient).},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{AyzelHeistermannWinterrath2019,
  author    = {Ayzel, Georgy and Heistermann, Maik and Winterrath, Tanja},
  title     = {Optical flow models as an open benchmark for radar-based precipitation nowcasting (rainymotion v0.1)},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {709},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42933},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-429333},
  pages     = {16},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) has become an essential technique in various application contexts, such as early warning or urban sewage control. A common heuristic prediction approach is to track the motion of precipitation features from a sequence of weather radar images and then to displace the precipitation field to the imminent future (minutes to hours) based on that motion, assuming that the intensity of the features remains constant ("Lagrangian persistence"). In that context, "optical flow" has become one of the most popular tracking techniques. Yet the present landscape of computational QPN models still struggles with producing open software implementations. Focusing on this gap, we have developed and extensively benchmarked a stack of models based on different optical flow algorithms for the tracking step and a set of parsimonious extrapolation procedures based on image warping and advection. We demonstrate that these models provide skillful predictions comparable with or even superior to state-of-the-art operational software. Our software library ("rainymotion") for precipitation nowcasting is written in the Python programming language and openly available at GitHub (https://github.com/hydrogo/rainymotion, Ayzel et al., 2019). That way, the library may serve as a tool for providing fast, free, and transparent solutions that could serve as a benchmark for further model development and hypothesis testing - a benchmark that is far more advanced than the conventional benchmark of Eulerian persistence commonly used in QPN verification experiments.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{TofeldeSaviWickertetal.2019,
  author    = {Tofelde, Stefanie and Savi, Sara and Wickert, Andrew D. and Bufe, Aaron and Schildgen, Taylor F.},
  title     = {Alluvial channel response to environmental perturbations},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {762},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-43718},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-437185},
  pages     = {609 -- 631},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {The sensitivity of fluvial systems to tectonic and climatic boundary conditions allows us to use the geomorphic and stratigraphic records as quantitative archives of past climatic and tectonic conditions. Thus, fluvial terraces that form on alluvial fans and floodplains as well as the rate of sediment export to oceanic and continental basins are commonly used to reconstruct paleoenvironments. However, we currently lack a systematic and quantitative understanding of the transient evolution of fluvial systems and their associated sediment storage and release in response to changes in base level, water input, and sediment input. Such knowledge is necessary to quantify past environmental change from terrace records or sedimentary deposits and to disentangle the multiple possible causes for terrace formation and sediment deposition. Here, we use a set of seven physical experiments to explore terrace formation and sediment export from a single, braided channel that is perturbed by changes in upstream water discharge or sediment supply, or through downstream base-level fall. Each perturbation differently affects (1) the geometry of terraces and channels, (2) the timing of terrace cutting, and (3) the transient response of sediment export from the basin. In general, an increase in water discharge leads to near-instantaneous channel incision across the entire fluvial system and consequent local terrace cutting, thus preserving the initial channel slope on terrace surfaces, and it also produces a transient increase in sediment export from the system. In contrast, a decreased upstream sediment-supply rate may result in longer lag times before terrace cutting, leading to terrace slopes that differ from the initial channel slope, and also lagged responses in sediment export. Finally, downstream base-level fall triggers the upstream propagation of a diffuse knickzone, forming terraces with upstream-decreasing ages. The slope of terraces triggered by base-level fall mimics that of the newly adjusted active channel, whereas slopes of terraces triggered by a decrease in upstream sediment discharge or an increase in upstream water discharge are steeper compared to the new equilibrium channel. By combining fillterrace records with constraints on sediment export, we can distinguish among environmental perturbations that would otherwise remain unresolved when using just one of these records.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{Buerger2019,
  author    = {B{\"u}rger, Gerd},
  title     = {A seamless filter for daily to seasonal forecasts, with applications to Iran and Brazil},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {726},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-52383},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-523835},
  pages     = {16},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {A digital filter is introduced which treats the problem of predictability versus time averaging in a continuous, seamless manner. This seamless filter (SF) is characterized by a unique smoothing rule that determines the strength of smoothing in dependence on lead time. The rule needs to be specified beforehand, either by expert knowledge or by user demand. As a result, skill curves are obtained that allow a predictability assessment across a whole range of time-scales, from daily to seasonal, in a uniform manner. The SF is applied to downscaled SEAS5 ensemble forecasts for two focus regions in or near the tropical belt, the river basins of the Karun in Iran and the Sao Francisco in Brazil. Both are characterized by strong seasonality and semi-aridity, so that predictability across various time-scales is in high demand. Among other things, it is found that from the start of the water year (autumn), areal precipitation is predictable with good skill for the Karun basin two and a half months ahead; for the Sao Francisco it is only one month, longer-term prediction skill is just above the critical level.},
  language  = {en}
}