@article{TotzTzipermanCoumouetal.2017,
  author    = {Totz, Sonja Juliana and Tziperman, Eli and Coumou, Dim and Pfeiffer, Karl and Cohen, Judah},
  title     = {Winter precipitation forecast in the European and mediterranean regions using cluster analysis},
  series = {Geophysical research letters},
  volume    = {44},
  journal   = {Geophysical research letters},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {0094-8276},
  doi       = {10.1002/2017GL075674},
  pages     = {12418 -- 12426},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{ShanGuanHubaceketal.2018,
  author    = {Shan, Yuli and Guan, Dabo and Hubacek, Klaus and Zheng, Bo and Davis, Steven J. and Jia, Lichao and Liu, Jianghua and Liu, Zhu and Fromer, Neil and Mi, Zhifu and Meng, Jing and Deng, Xiangzheng and Li, Yuan and Lin, Jintai and Schroeder, Heike and Weisz, Helga and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim},
  title     = {City-level climate change mitigation in China},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {1096},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-47154},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-471541},
  pages     = {18},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {As national efforts to reduce CO2 emissions intensify, policy-makers need increasingly specific, subnational information about the sources of CO2 and the potential reductions and economic implications of different possible policies. This is particularly true in China, a large and economically diverse country that has rapidly industrialized and urbanized and that has pledged under the Paris Agreement that its emissions will peak by 2030. We present new, city level estimates of CO2 emissions for 182 Chinese cities, decomposed into 17 different fossil fuels, 46 socioeconomic sectors, and 7 industrial processes. We find that more affluent cities have systematically lower emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), supported by imports from less affluent, industrial cities located nearby. In turn, clusters of industrial cities are supported by nearby centers of coal or oil extraction. Whereas policies directly targeting manufacturing and electric power infrastructure would drastically undermine the GDP of industrial cities, consumption based policies might allow emission reductions to be subsidized by those with greater ability to pay. In particular, sector based analysis of each city suggests that technological improvements could be a practical and effective means of reducing emissions while maintaining growth and the current economic structure and energy system. We explore city-level emission reductions under three scenarios of technological progress to show that substantial reductions (up to 31\%) are possible by updating a disproportionately small fraction of existing infrastructure.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Sterzel2019,
  author    = {Sterzel, Till},
  title     = {Analyzing global typologies of socio-ecological vulnerability},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42883},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-428837},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {137},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {On a planetary scale human populations need to adapt to both socio-economic and environmental problems amidst rapid global change. This holds true for coupled human-environment (socio-ecological) systems in rural and urban settings alike. Two examples are drylands and urban coasts. Such socio-ecological systems have a global distribution. Therefore, advancing the knowledge base for identifying socio-ecological adaptation needs with local vulnerability assessments alone is infeasible: The systems cover vast areas, while funding, time, and human resources for local assessments are limited. They are lacking in low an middle-income countries (LICs and MICs) in particular. But places in a specific socio-ecological system are not only unique and complex - they also exhibit similarities. A global patchwork of local rural drylands vulnerability assessments of human populations to socio-ecological and environmental problems has already been reduced to a limited number of problem structures, which typically cause vulnerability. However, the question arises whether this is also possible in urban socio-ecological systems. The question also arises whether these typologies provide added value in research beyond global change. Finally, the methodology employed for drylands needs refining and standardizing to increase its uptake in the scientific community. In this dissertation, I set out to fill these three gaps in research. The geographical focus in my dissertation is on LICs and MICs, which generally have lower capacities to adapt, and greater adaptation needs, regarding rapid global change. Using a spatially explicit indicator-based methodology, I combine geospatial and clustering methods to identify typical configurations of key factors in case studies causing vulnerability to human populations in two specific socio-ecological systems. Then I use statistical and analytical methods to interpret and appraise both the typical configurations and the global typologies they constitute. First, I improve the indicator-based methodology and then reanalyze typical global problem structures of socio-ecological drylands vulnerability with seven indicator datasets. The reanalysis confirms the key tenets and produces a more realistic and nuanced typology of eight spatially explicit problem structures, or vulnerability profiles: Two new profiles with typically high natural resource endowment emerge, in which overpopulation has led to medium or high soil erosion. Second, I determine whether the new drylands typology and its socio-ecological vulnerability concept advance a thematically linked scientific debate in human security studies: what drives violent conflict in drylands? The typology is a much better predictor for conflict distribution and incidence in drylands than regression models typically used in peace research. Third, I analyze global problem structures typically causing vulnerability in an urban socio-ecological system - the rapidly urbanizing coastal fringe (RUCF) - with eleven indicator datasets. The RUCF also shows a robust typology, and its seven profiles show huge asymmetries in vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The fastest population increase, lowest income, most ineffective governments, most prevalent poverty, and lowest adaptive capacity are all typically stacked in two profiles in LICs. This shows that beyond local case studies tropical cyclones and/or coastal flooding are neither stalling rapid population growth, nor urban expansion, in the RUCF. I propose entry points for scaling up successful vulnerability reduction strategies in coastal cities within the same vulnerability profile. This dissertation shows that patchworks of local vulnerability assessments can be generalized to structure global socio-ecological vulnerabilities in both rural and urban socio-ecological systems according to typical problems. In terms of climate-related extreme events in the RUCF, conflicting problem structures and means to deal with them are threatening to widen the development gap between LICs and high-income countries unless successful vulnerability reduction measures are comprehensively scaled up. The explanatory power for human security in drylands warrants further applications of the methodology beyond global environmental change research in the future. Thus, analyzing spatially explicit global typologies of socio-ecological vulnerability is a useful complement to local assessments: The typologies provide entry points for where to consider which generic measures to reduce typical problem structures - including the countless places without local assessments. This can save limited time and financial resources for adaptation under rapid global change.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{PaascheEberle2011,
  author    = {Paasche, Hendrik and Eberle, Detlef},
  title     = {Automated compilation of pseudo-lithology maps from geophysical data sets a comparison of Gustafson-Kessel and fuzzy c-means cluster algorithms},
  series = {Exploration geophysics : the bulletin of the Australian Society of Exploration Geophysicists},
  volume    = {42},
  journal   = {Exploration geophysics : the bulletin of the Australian Society of Exploration Geophysicists},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {CSIRO},
  address   = {Collingwood},
  issn      = {0812-3985},
  doi       = {10.1071/EG11014},
  pages     = {275 -- 285},
  year      = {2011},
  abstract  = {The fuzzy partitioning Gustafson-Kessel cluster algorithm is employed for rapid and objective integration of multi-parameter Earth-science related databases. We begin by evaluating the Gustafson-Kessel algorithm using the example of a synthetic study and compare the results to those obtained from the more widely employed fuzzy c-means algorithm. Since the Gustafson-Kessel algorithm goes beyond the potential of the fuzzy c-means algorithm by adapting the shape of the clusters to be detected and enabling a manual control of the cluster volume, we believe the results obtained from Gustafson-Kessel algorithm to be superior. Accordingly, a field database comprising airborne and ground-based geophysical data sets is analysed, which has previously been classified by means of the fuzzy c-means algorithm. This database is integrated using the Gustafson-Kessel algorithm thus minimising the amount of empirical data processing required before and after fuzzy c-means clustering. The resultant zonal geophysical map is more evenly clustered matching regional geology information available from the survey area. Even additional information about linear structures, e. g. as typically caused by the presence of dolerite dykes or faults, is visible in the zonal map obtained from Gustafson-Kessel cluster analysis.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{Williges2008,
  type      = {Master Thesis},
  author    = {Williges, Esther S. G.},
  title     = {Steuerverwaltung in Polen : eine europ{\"a}ische Verwaltung? [vollst{\"a}ndige Fassung]},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-33877},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2008},
  abstract  = {Die Arbeit geht der Frage nach, ob man die Steuerverwaltung in Polen als europ{\"a}ische Verwaltung bezeichnen kann. Es werden drei Aspekte vertiefend untersucht: 1.Verortung der polnischen Steuerverwaltung in der OECD und ausgew{\"a}hlten Nicht-OECD-L{\"a}ndern mittels einer Clusteranalyse auf Grundlage verschiedener Daten zum Aufbau, Aufgabenprofil und zur Performanz unter gleichzeitiger Beachtung der m{\"o}glichen Abzeichnung eines europ{\"a}ischen Steuerverwaltungsraums; 2.Verbreitung des CAF in den Steuerverwaltungen der MOE-8, insbesondere in Polen, als vom EUPAN unterst{\"u}tztes Qualit{\"a}tsmanagementsystem, das geeignet erscheint, die Entstehung eines gemeinsamen europ{\"a}ischen Qualit{\"a}tsverst{\"a}ndnisses zu f{\"o}rdern; 3.Wahrnehmung der polnischen Steuerverwaltung durch deutsche Finanzbeamte erhoben mit Hilfe eines semantischen Differentials. Die Clusteranalyse ergibt keinen Hinweis auf einen einheitlichen europ{\"a}ischen Steuerverwaltungsraum in Abgrenzung von den {\"u}brigen einbezogenen Staaten. Polen f{\"a}llt nicht als Ausreißer auf und weist {\"A}hnlichkeiten zu anderen europ{\"a}ischen L{\"a}ndern auf. In Steuerverwaltungen l{\"a}sst sich das CAF so gut wie gar nicht finden. Polen bildet in der Hinsicht eine Ausnahme. Allerdings befindet sich die polnische Steuerverwaltung auf einem europ{\"a}ischen Weg, den andere Sektoren der Verwaltung (auch in MOE-8) bereits vielfach beschritten haben. Aus der Untersuchung des Images der polnischen Steuerverwaltung bei deutschen Finanzbeamten geht die Abwesenheit starker negativer Stereotype hervor. Die Einsch{\"a}tzungen sind sehr zur{\"u}ckhaltend in der N{\"a}he des Mittelwertes zwischen den beiden Polen des semantischen Differentials. Das vorl{\"a}ufige Ergebnis lautet: Die Steuerverwaltung in Polen ist eine europ{\"a}ische Verwaltung.},
  language  = {de}
}
@misc{Schorsch2008,
  type      = {Master Thesis},
  author    = {Schorsch, Andrea},
  title     = {Statistische Eigenschaften von Clusterverfahren},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-29026},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2008},
  abstract  = {Die vorliegende Diplomarbeit besch{\"a}ftigt sich mit zwei Aspekten der statistischen Eigenschaften von Clusterverfahren. Zum einen geht die Arbeit auf die Frage der Existenz von unterschiedlichen Clusteranalysemethoden zur Strukturfindung und deren unterschiedlichen Vorgehensweisen ein. Die Methode des Abstandes zwischen Mannigfaltigkeiten und die K-means Methode liefern ausgehend von gleichen Daten unterschiedliche Endclusterungen. Der zweite Teil dieser Arbeit besch{\"a}ftigt sich n{\"a}her mit den asymptotischen Eigenschaften des K-means Verfahrens. Hierbei ist die Menge der optimalen Clusterzentren konsistent. Bei Vergr{\"o}ßerung des Stichprobenumfangs gegen Unendlich konvergiert diese in Wahrscheinlichkeit gegen die Menge der Clusterzentren, die das Varianzkriterium minimiert. Ebenfalls konvergiert die Menge der optimalen Clusterzentren f{\"u}r n gegen Unendlich gegen eine Normalverteilung. Es hat sich dabei ergeben, dass die einzelnen Clusterzentren voneinander abh{\"a}ngen.},
  language  = {de}
}