@article{RegmiBookhagen2022, author = {Regmi, Shakil and Bookhagen, Bodo}, title = {The spatial pattern of extreme precipitation from 40 years of gauge data in the central Himalaya}, series = {Weather and climate extremes}, volume = {37}, journal = {Weather and climate extremes}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {2212-0947}, doi = {10.1016/j.wace.2022.100470}, pages = {14}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The topography of the Himalaya exerts a substantial control on the spatial distribution of monsoonal rainfall, which is a vital water source for the regional economy and population. But the occurrence of short-lived and high-intensity precipitation results in socio-economic losses. This study relies on 40 years of daily data from 204 ground stations in Nepal to derive extreme precipitation thresholds, amounts, and days at the 95th percentile. We additionally determine the precipitation magnitude-frequency relation. We observe that extreme precipitation amounts follow an almost uniform band parallel to topographic contour lines in the southern Himalaya mountains in central and eastern Nepal but not in western Nepal. The relationship of extreme precipitation indices with topographic relief shows that extreme precipitation thresholds decrease with increasing elevation, but extreme precipitation days increase in higher elevation areas. Furthermore, stations above 1 km elevation exhibit a power-law relation in the rainfall magnitude-frequency framework. Stations at higher elevations generally have lower values of power-law exponents than low elevation areas. This suggests a fundamentally different behaviour of the rainfall distribution and an increased occurrence of extreme rainfall storms in the high elevation areas of Nepal.}, language = {en} } @article{PrasadAnoopRiedeletal.2014, author = {Prasad, Sushma and Anoop, A. and Riedel, N. and Sarkar, Saswati and Menzel, P. and Basavaiah, Nathani and Krishnan, R. and Fuller, D. and Plessen, Birgit and Gaye, B. and Roehl, U. and Wilkes, H. and Sachse, Dirk and Sawant, R. and Wiesner, M. G. and Stebich, M.}, title = {Prolonged monsoon droughts and links to Indo-Pacific warm pool: A Holocene record from Lonar Lake, central India}, series = {Earth \& planetary science letters}, volume = {391}, journal = {Earth \& planetary science letters}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0012-821X}, doi = {10.1016/j.epsl.2014.01.043}, pages = {171 -- 182}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Concerns about the regional impact of global climate change in a warming scenario have highlighted the gaps in our understanding of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM, also referred to as the Indian Ocean summer monsoon) and the absence of long term palaeoclimate data from the central Indian core monsoon zone (CMZ). Here we present the first high resolution, well-dated, multiproxy reconstruction of Holocene palaeoclimate from a 10 m long sediment core raised from the Lonar Lake in central India. We show that while the early Holocene onset of-intensified monsoon in the CMZ is similar to that reported from other ISM records, the Lonar data shows two prolonged droughts (PD, multidecadal to centennial periods of weaker monsoon) between 4.6-3.9 and 2-0.6 cal ka. A comparison of our record with available data from other ISM influenced sites shows that the impact of these PD was observed in varying degrees throughout the ISM realm and coincides with intervals of higher solar irradiance. We demonstrate that (i) the regional warming in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) plays an important role in causing ISM PD through changes in meridional overturning circulation and position of the anomalous Walker cell; (ii) the long term influence of conditions like El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the ISM began only ca. 2 cal ka BP and is coincident with the warming of the southern IPWP; (iii) the first settlements in central India coincided with the onset of the first PD and agricultural populations flourished between the two PD, highlighting the significance of natural climate variability and PD as major environmental factors affecting human settlements.}, language = {en} } @article{MishraPrasadAnoopetal.2015, author = {Mishra, Praveen Kumar and Prasad, Sushma and Anoop, A. and Plessen, Birgit and Jehangir, Arshid and Gaye, Birgit and Menzel, Philip and Weise, Stephan M. and Yousuf, Abdul R.}, title = {Carbonate isotopes from high altitude Tso Moriri Lake (NW Himalayas) provide clues to late glacial and Holocene moisture source and atmospheric circulation changes}, series = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences}, volume = {425}, journal = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0031-0182}, doi = {10.1016/j.palaeo.2015.02.031}, pages = {76 -- 83}, year = {2015}, abstract = {High resolution isotopic (delta O-18 and delta C-13) investigations on endogenic carbonates (calcite/aragonite) from Tso Moriri Lake, NW Himalaya show dramatic fluctuations during the late glacial and the early Holocene, and a persistent enrichment trend during the late Holocene. Changes in this lake are largely governed by the [input (meltwater + monsoon precipitation)/evaporationj (WE) ratio, also reflected in changes in the carbonate mineralogy with aragonite being formed during periods of lowest I/E. Using new isotopic data on endogenic carbonates in combination with the available data on geochemistry, mineralogy, and reconstructed mean annual precipitation, we demonstrate that the late glacial and early Holocene carbonate delta O-18 variability resulted from fluctuating Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation in NW Himalaya. This region experienced increasing ISM precipitation between ca. 13.1 and 11.7 cal ka and highest ISM precipitation during the early Holocene (11.2-8.5 cal ka). However, during the late Holocene, evaporation was the dominant control on the carbonate delta O-18. Regional comparison of reconstructed hydrological changes from Tso Moriri Lake with other archives from the Asian summer monsoon and westerlies domain shows that the intensified westerly influence that resulted in higher lake levels (after 8 cal ka) in central Asia was not strongly felt in NW Himalaya. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{MishraAnoopSchettleretal.2015, author = {Mishra, Praveen Kumar and Anoop, Ambili and Schettler, Georg and Prasad, Sushma and Jehangir, Arshid and Menzel, Peter and Naumann, Rudolf and Yousuf, A. R. and Basavaiah, Nathani and Deenadayalan, Kannan and Wiesner, Martin G. and Gaye, Birgit}, title = {Reconstructed late Quaternary hydrological changes from Lake Tso Moriri, NW Himalaya}, series = {Quaternary international : the journal of the International Union for Quaternary Research}, volume = {371}, journal = {Quaternary international : the journal of the International Union for Quaternary Research}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {1040-6182}, doi = {10.1016/j.quaint.2014.11.040}, pages = {76 -- 86}, year = {2015}, abstract = {We present the results of our investigations on the radiocarbon dated core sediments from the Lake Tso Moriri, NW Himalaya aimed at reconstructing palaeohydrological changes in this climatically sensitive region. Based on the detailed geochemical, mineralogical and sedimentological analysis, we recognise several short-term fluctuations superimposed upon seven major palaeohydrological stages identified in this lake since similar to 26 cal ka. Stage I (>20.2 cal ka): shallow lake characterised by input of coarse-grained detrital sediments; Stage II (20.2-16.4 cal ka): lake deepening and intensification of this trend ca. 18 cal ka; Stage III (16.4-11.2 cal ka): rising lake levels with a short term wet phase (13.1-11.7 cal ka); Stage IV (11.2-8.5 cal ka): early Holocene hydrological maxima and highest lake levels inferred to have resulted from early Holocene Indian monsoon intensification, as records from central Asia indicate weaker westerlies during this interval; Stage V (8.5-5.5 cal ka): mid-Holocene climate deterioration; Stage VI (5.5-2.7 cal ka): progressive lowering of lake level; Stage VII (2.7-0 cal ka): onset of modern conditions. The reconstructed hydrological variability in Lake Tso Moriri is governed by temperature changes (meltwater inflow) and monsoon precipitation (increased runoff). A regional comparison shows considerable differences with other palaeorecords from peninsular India during late Holocene. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{KoehnReichBuerger2019, author = {K{\"o}hn-Reich, Lisei and B{\"u}rger, Gerd}, title = {Dynamical prediction of Indian monsoon}, series = {International Journal of Climatology}, volume = {39}, journal = {International Journal of Climatology}, number = {8}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0899-8418}, doi = {10.1002/joc.6039}, pages = {3574 -- 3581}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Ongoing development of dynamical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models keep expectations high regarding seasonal predictions of Indian monsoon rainfall. This study compares past and present skill of four currently operating forecasting systems, CFSv2 from NCEP, ENSEMBLES, System 4 and the newest SEAS5 from ECMWF, by analysing correlations of respective hindcasts with observed all-India summer rainfall. For the common time period 1982-2005, only ENSEMBLES and CFSv2 give significantly skilful forecasts. It is shown that skill is highly dependent on the chosen time period. Especially the intense El Nino of 1997 seems to degrade the predictions, most notably for SEAS4 and SEAS5 which seem to be linked to El Nino too strongly. We show that by discarding that year, a regime shift in the 1990s is no longer visible. Overall, we observe a convergence of skill towards the present with correlations of about 0.4 for CFSv2 and of 0.6 for System 4 and SEAS5.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Ambili2012, author = {Ambili, Anoop}, title = {Lake sediments as climate and tectonic archives in the Indian summer monsoon domain}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-64799}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2012}, abstract = {The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is one of the largest climate systems on earth and impacts the livelihood of nearly 40\% of the world's population. Despite dedicated efforts, a comprehensive picture of monsoon variability has proved elusive largely due to the absence of long term high resolution records, spatial inhomogeneity of the monsoon precipitation, and the complex forcing mechanisms (solar insolation, internal teleconnections for e.g., El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation, tropical-midlatitude interactions). My work aims to improve the understanding of monsoon variability through generation of long term high resolution palaeoclimate data from climatically sensitive regions in the ISM and westerlies domain. To achieve this aim I have (i) identified proxies (sedimentological, geochemical, isotopic, and mineralogical) that are sensitive to environmental changes; (ii) used the identified proxies to generate long term palaeoclimate data from two climatically sensitive regions, one in NW Himalayas (transitional westerlies and ISM domain in the Spiti valley and one in the core monsoon zone (Lonar lake) in central India); (iii) undertaken a regional overview to generate "snapshots" of selected time slices; and (iv) interpreted the spatial precipitation anomalies in terms of those caused by modern teleconnections. This approach must be considered only as the first step towards identifying the past teleconnections as the boundary conditions in the past were significantly different from today and would have impacted the precipitation anomalies. As the Spiti valley is located in the in the active tectonic orogen of Himalayas, it was essential to understand the role of regional tectonics to make valid interpretations of catchment erosion and detrital influx into the lake. My approach of using integrated structural/morphometric and geomorphic signatures provided clear evidence for active tectonics in this area and demonstrated the suitability of these lacustrine sediments as palaleoseismic archives. The investigations on the lacustrine outcrops in Spiti valley also provided information on changes in seasonality of precipitation and occurrence of frequent and intense periods (ca. 6.8-6.1 cal ka BP) of detrital influx indicating extreme hydrological events in the past. Regional comparison for this time slice indicates a possible extended "break-monsoon like" mode for the monsoon that favors enhanced precipitation over the Tibetan plateau, Himalayas and their foothills. My studies on surface sediments from Lonar lake helped to identify environmentally sensitive proxies which could also be used to interpret palaeodata obtained from a ca. 10m long core raised from the lake in 2008. The core encompasses the entire Holocene and is the first well dated (by 14C) archive from the core monsoon zone of central India. My identification of authigenic evaporite gaylussite crystals within the core sediments provided evidence of exceptionally drier conditions during 4.7-3.9 and 2.0-0.5 cal ka BP. Additionally, isotopic investigations on these crystals provided information on eutrophication, stratification, and carbon cycling processes in the lake.}, language = {en} }