@misc{SiegmundSandersHeinrichetal.2016,
  author    = {Siegmund, Jonatan Frederik and Sanders, Tanja G. M. and Heinrich, Ingo and Maaten, Ernst van der and Simard, Sonia and Helle, Gerhard and Donner, Reik Volker},
  title     = {Meteorological drivers of extremes in daily stem radius variations of beech, oak, and pine in Northeastern Germany},
  series = {Frontiers in plant science},
  journal   = {Frontiers in plant science},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407943},
  pages     = {14},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Observed recent and expected future increases in frequency and intensity of climatic extremes in central Europe may pose critical challenges for domestic tree species. Continuous dendrometer recordings provide a valuable source of information on tree stem radius variations, offering the possibility to study a tree's response to environmental influences at a high temporal resolution. In this study, we analyze stem radius variations (SRV) of three domestic tree species (beech, oak, and pine) from 2012 to 2014. We use the novel statistical approach of event coincidence analysis (ECA) to investigate the simultaneous occurrence of extreme daily weather conditions and extreme SRVs, where extremes are defined with respect to the common values at a given phase of the annual growth period. Besides defining extreme events based on individual meteorological variables, we additionally introduce conditional and joint ECA as new multivariate extensions of the original methodology and apply them for testing 105 different combinations of variables regarding their impact on SRV extremes. Our results reveal a strong susceptibility of all three species to the extremes of several meteorological variables. Yet, the inter-species differences regarding their response to the meteorological extremes are comparatively low. The obtained results provide a thorough extension of previous correlation-based studies by emphasizing on the timings of climatic extremes only. We suggest that the employed methodological approach should be further promoted in forest research regarding the investigation of tree responses to changing environmental conditions.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{RolinskiRammigWalzetal.2014,
  author    = {Rolinski, Susanne and Rammig, Anja and Walz, Ariane and von Bloh, Werner and van Oijen, M. and Thonicke, Kirsten},
  title     = {A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (487)},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (487)},
  number    = {487},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407999},
  pages     = {1813 -- 1831},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour. We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981-2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate). Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case. At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model- based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach.},
  language  = {en}
}