@article{EsfahaniVogelCottonetal.2021, author = {Esfahani, Reza Dokht Dolatabadi and Vogel, Kristin and Cotton, Fabrice Pierre and Ohrnberger, Matthias and Scherbaum, Frank and Kriegerowski, Marius}, title = {Exploring the dimensionality of ground-motion data by applying autoencoder techniques}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America : BSSA}, volume = {111}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America : BSSA}, number = {3}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {El Cerito, Calif.}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120200285}, pages = {1563 -- 1576}, year = {2021}, abstract = {In this article, we address the question of how observed ground-motion data can most effectively be modeled for engineering seismological purposes. Toward this goal, we use a data-driven method, based on a deep-learning autoencoder with a variable number of nodes in the bottleneck layer, to determine how many parameters are needed to reconstruct synthetic and observed ground-motion data in terms of their median values and scatter. The reconstruction error as a function of the number of nodes in the bottleneck is used as an indicator of the underlying dimensionality of ground-motion data, that is, the minimum number of predictor variables needed in a ground-motion model. Two synthetic and one observed datasets are studied to prove the performance of the proposed method. We find that mapping ground-motion data to a 2D manifold primarily captures magnitude and distance information and is suited for an approximate data reconstruction. The data reconstruction improves with an increasing number of bottleneck nodes of up to three and four, but it saturates if more nodes are added to the bottleneck.}, language = {en} } @article{ZaliOhrnbergerScherbaumetal.2021, author = {Zali, Zahra and Ohrnberger, Matthias and Scherbaum, Frank and Cotton, Fabrice and Eibl, Eva P. S.}, title = {Volcanic tremor extraction and earthquake detection using music information retrieval algorithms}, series = {Seismological research letters}, volume = {92}, journal = {Seismological research letters}, number = {6}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {Boulder, Colo.}, issn = {0895-0695}, doi = {10.1785/0220210016}, pages = {3668 -- 3681}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Volcanic tremor signals are usually observed before or during volcanic eruptions and must be monitored to evaluate the volcanic activity. A challenge in studying seismic signals of volcanic origin is the coexistence of transient signal swarms and long-lasting volcanic tremor signals. Separating transient events from volcanic tremors can, therefore, contrib-ute to improving upon our understanding of the underlying physical processes. Exploiting the idea of harmonic-percussive separation in musical signal processing, we develop a method to extract the harmonic volcanic tremor signals and to detect tran-sient events from seismic recordings. Based on the similarity properties of spectrogram frames in the time-frequency domain, we decompose the signal into two separate spec-trograms representing repeating (harmonic) and nonrepeating (transient) patterns, which correspond to volcanic tremor signals and earthquake signals, respectively. We reconstruct the harmonic tremor signal in the time domain from the complex spectrogram of the repeating pattern by only considering the phase components for the frequency range in which the tremor amplitude spectrum is significantly contribut-ing to the energy of the signal. The reconstructed signal is, therefore, clean tremor signal without transient events. Furthermore, we derive a characteristic function suitable for the detection of tran-sient events (e.g., earthquakes) by integrating amplitudes of the nonrepeating spectro-gram over frequency at each time frame. Considering transient events like earthquakes, 78\% of the events are detected for signal-to-noise ratio = 0.1 in our semisynthetic tests. In addition, we compared the number of detected earthquakes using our method for one month of continuous data recorded during the Holuhraun 2014-2015 eruption in Iceland with the bulletin presented in Agustsdottir et al. (2019). Our single station event detection algorithm identified 84\% of the bulletin events. Moreover, we detected a total of 12,619 events, which is more than twice the number of the bulletin events.}, language = {en} } @article{ZaliReinKruegeretal.2023, author = {Zali, Zahra and Rein, Teresa and Kr{\"u}ger, Frank and Ohrnberger, Matthias and Scherbaum, Frank}, title = {Ocean bottom seismometer (OBS) noise reduction from horizontal and vertical components using harmonic-percussive separation algorithms}, series = {Solid earth}, volume = {14}, journal = {Solid earth}, number = {2}, publisher = {Coepernicus Publ.}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1869-9529}, doi = {10.5194/se-14-181-2023}, pages = {181 -- 195}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Records from ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) are highly contaminated by noise, which is much stronger compared to data from most land stations, especially on the horizontal components. As a consequence, the high energy of the oceanic noise at frequencies below 1 Hz considerably complicates the analysis of the teleseismic earthquake signals recorded by OBSs. Previous studies suggested different approaches to remove low-frequency noises from OBS recordings but mainly focused on the vertical component. The records of horizontal components, which are crucial for the application of many methods in passive seismological analysis of body and surface waves, could not be much improved in the teleseismic frequency band. Here we introduce a noise reduction method, which is derived from the harmonic-percussive separation algorithms used in Zali et al. (2021), in order to separate long-lasting narrowband signals from broadband transients in the OBS signal. This leads to significant noise reduction of OBS records on both the vertical and horizontal components and increases the earthquake signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) without distortion of the broadband earthquake waveforms. This is demonstrated through tests with synthetic data. Both SNR and cross-correlation coefficients showed significant improvements for different realistic noise realizations. The application of denoised signals in surface wave analysis and receiver functions is discussed through tests with synthetic and real data.}, language = {en} } @article{BoraCottonScherbaum2019, author = {Bora, Sanjay Singh and Cotton, Fabrice Pierre and Scherbaum, Frank}, title = {NGA-West2 Empirical Fourier and Duration Models to Generate Adjustable Response Spectra}, series = {Earthquake spectra : the professional journal of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute}, volume = {35}, journal = {Earthquake spectra : the professional journal of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute}, number = {1}, publisher = {Sage Publ.}, address = {Thousand Oaks}, issn = {8755-2930}, doi = {10.1193/110317EQS228M}, pages = {61 -- 93}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Adjustment of median ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from one region to another region is one of the major challenges within the current practice of seismic hazard analysis. In our approach of generating response spectra, we derive two separate empirical models for a) Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) and b) duration of ground motion. To calculate response spectra, the two models are combined within the random vibration theory (RVT) framework. The models are calibrated on recordings obtained from shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. We use a subset of NGA-West2 database with M3.2-7.9 earthquakes at distances 0-300 km. The NGA-West2 database expanded over a wide magnitude and distance range facilitates a better constraint over derived models. A frequency-dependent duration model is derived to obtain adjustable response spectral ordinates. Excellent comparison of our approach with other NGA-West2 models implies that it can also be used as a stand-alone model.}, language = {en} } @article{DialloKuleshHolschneideretal.2006, author = {Diallo, Mamadou Sanou and Kulesh, Michail and Holschneider, Matthias and Kurennaya, Kristina and Scherbaum, Frank}, title = {Instantaneous polarization attributes based on an adaptive approximate covariance method}, series = {Geophysics}, volume = {71}, journal = {Geophysics}, number = {5}, publisher = {SEG}, address = {Tulsa}, issn = {0016-8033}, doi = {10.1190/1.2227522}, pages = {V99 -- V104}, year = {2006}, abstract = {We introduce a method for computing instantaneous-polarization attributes from multicomponent signals. This is an improvement on the standard covariance method (SCM) because it does not depend on the window size used to compute the standard covariance matrix. We overcome the window-size problem by deriving an approximate analytical formula for the cross-energy matrix in which we automatically and adaptively determine the time window. The proposed method uses polarization analysis as applied to multicomponent seismic by waveform separation and filtering.}, language = {en} } @article{MolkenthinScherbaumGriewanketal.2017, author = {Molkenthin, Christian and Scherbaum, Frank and Griewank, Andreas and Leovey, Hernan and Kucherenko, Sergei and Cotton, Fabrice Pierre}, title = {Derivative-Based Global Sensitivity Analysis: Upper Bounding of Sensitivities in Seismic-Hazard Assessment Using Automatic Differentiation}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, volume = {107}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {Albany}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120160185}, pages = {984 -- 1004}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Seismic-hazard assessment is of great importance within the field of engineering seismology. Nowadays, it is common practice to define future seismic demands using probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA). Often it is neither obvious nor transparent how PSHA responds to changes in its inputs. In addition, PSHA relies on many uncertain inputs. Sensitivity analysis (SA) is concerned with the assessment and quantification of how changes in the model inputs affect the model response and how input uncertainties influence the distribution of the model response. Sensitivity studies are challenging primarily for computational reasons; hence, the development of efficient methods is of major importance. Powerful local (deterministic) methods widely used in other fields can make SA feasible, even for complex models with a large number of inputs; for example, automatic/algorithmic differentiation (AD)-based adjoint methods. Recently developed derivative-based global sensitivity measures can combine the advantages of such local SA methods with efficient sampling strategies facilitating quantitative global sensitivity analysis (GSA) for complex models. In our study, we propose and implement exactly this combination. It allows an upper bounding of the sensitivities involved in PSHA globally and, therefore, an identification of the noninfluential and the most important uncertain inputs. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that derivative-based GSA measures are combined with AD in practice. In addition, we show that first-order uncertainty propagation using the delta method can give satisfactory approximations of global sensitivity measures and allow a rough characterization of the model output distribution in the case of PSHA. An illustrative example is shown for the suggested derivative-based GSA of a PSHA that uses stochastic ground-motion simulations.}, language = {en} } @article{BoraCottonScherbaumetal.2017, author = {Bora, Sanjay Singh and Cotton, Fabrice Pierre and Scherbaum, Frank and Edwards, Benjamin and Traversa, Paola}, title = {Stochastic source, path and site attenuation parameters and associated variabilities for shallow crustal European earthquakes}, series = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, volume = {15}, journal = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1570-761X}, doi = {10.1007/s10518-017-0167-x}, pages = {4531 -- 4561}, year = {2017}, abstract = {We have analyzed the recently developed pan-European strong motion database, RESORCE-2012: spectral parameters, such as stress drop (stress parameter, Delta sigma), anelastic attenuation (Q), near surface attenuation (kappa(0)) and site amplification have been estimated from observed strong motion recordings. The selected dataset exhibits a bilinear distance-dependent Q model with average kappa(0) value 0.0308 s. Strong regional variations in inelastic attenuation were also observed: frequency-independent Q(0) of 1462 and 601 were estimated for Turkish and Italian data respectively. Due to the strong coupling between Q and kappa(0), the regional variations in Q have strong impact on the estimation of near surface attenuation kappa(0). kappa(0) was estimated as 0.0457 and 0.0261 s for Turkey and Italy respectively. Furthermore, a detailed analysis of the variability in estimated kappa(0) revealed significant within-station variability. The linear site amplification factors were constrained from residual analysis at each station and site-class type. Using the regional Q(0) model and a site-class specific kappa(0), seismic moments (M-0) and source corner frequencies f (c) were estimated from the site corrected empirical Fourier spectra. Delta sigma did not exhibit magnitude dependence. The median Delta sigma value was obtained as 5.75 and 5.65 MPa from inverted and database magnitudes respectively. A comparison of response spectra from the stochastic model (derived herein) with that from (regional) ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) suggests that the presented seismological parameters can be used to represent the corresponding seismological attributes of the regional GMPEs in a host-to-target adjustment framework. The analysis presented herein can be considered as an update of that undertaken for the previous Euro-Mediterranean strong motion database presented by Edwards and Fah (Geophys J Int 194(2):1190-1202, 2013a).}, language = {en} } @article{BeauvalHainzlScherbaum2006, author = {Beauval, Celine and Hainzl, Sebastian and Scherbaum, Frank}, title = {The impact of the spatial uniform distribution of seismicity on probabilistic seismic-hazard estimation}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, volume = {96}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, number = {6}, publisher = {GeoScienceWorld}, address = {Alexandria, Va.}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120060073}, pages = {2465 -- 2471}, year = {2006}, abstract = {The first step in the estimation of probabilistic seismic hazard in a region commonly consists of the definition and characterization of the relevant seismic sources. Because in low-seismicity regions seismicity is often rather diffuse and faults are difficult to identify, large areal source zones are mostly used. The corresponding hypothesis is that seismicity is uniformly distributed inside each areal seismic source zone. In this study, the impact of this hypothesis on the probabilistic hazard estimation is quantified through the generation of synthetic spatial seismicity distributions. Fractal seismicity distributions are generated inside a given source zone and probabilistic hazard is computed for a set of sites located inside this zone. In our study, the impact of the spatial seismicity distribution is defined as the deviation from the hazard value obtained for a spatially uniform seismicity distribution. From the generation of a large number of synthetic distributions, the correlation between the fractal dimension D and the impact is derived. The results show that the assumption of spatially uniform seismicity tends to bias the hazard to higher values. The correlation can be used to determine the systematic biases and uncertainties for hazard estimations in real cases, where the fractal dimension has been determined. We apply the technique in Germany (Cologne area) and in France (Alps).}, language = {en} } @article{SuryantoIgelWassermannetal.2006, author = {Suryanto, Wiwit and Igel, Heiner and Wassermann, Joachim and Cochard, Alain and Schuberth, B. S. A. and Vollmer, Daniel and Scherbaum, Frank and Schreiber, U. and Velikoseltsev, A.}, title = {First comparison of array-derived rotational ground motions with direct ring laser measurements}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, volume = {96}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, number = {6}, publisher = {GeoScienceWorld}, address = {Alexandria, Va.}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120060004}, pages = {2059 -- 2071}, year = {2006}, abstract = {Recently, ring laser technology has provided the first consistent observations of rotational ground motions around a vertical axis induced by earthquakes. "Consistent," in this context, implies that the observed waveforms and amplitudes are compatible with collocated recordings of translational ground motions. In particular, transverse accelerations should be in phase with rotation rate and their ratio proportional to local horizontal phase velocity assuming plane-wave propagation. The ring laser installed at the Fundamental station Wettzell in the Bavarian Forest, Southeast Germany, is recording the rotation rate around a vertical axis, theoretically a linear combination of the space derivatives of the horizontal components of motion. This suggests that, in principle, rotation can be derived from seismic-array experiments by "finite differencing." This has been attempted previously in several studies; however, the accuracy of these observations could never be tested in the absence of direct measurements. We installed a double cross-shaped array of nine stations from December 2003 to March 2004 around the ring laser instrument and observed several large earthquakes on both the ring laser and the seismic array. Here we present for the first time a comparison of array-derived rotations with direct measurements of rotations for ground motions induced by the M 6.3 Al Hoceima, Morocco, earthquake of 24 February 2004. With complete 3D synthetic seismograms calculated for this event we show that even low levels of noise may considerably influence the accuracy of the array-derived rotations when the minimum number of required stations (three) is used. Nevertheless, when using all nine stations, the overall fit between direct and array-derived measurements is surprisingly good (maximum correlation coefficient of 0.94).}, language = {en} } @article{BoraScherbaumKuehnetal.2016, author = {Bora, Sanjay Singh and Scherbaum, Frank and Kuehn, Nicolas and Stafford, Peter}, title = {On the Relationship between Fourier and Response Spectra: Implications for the Adjustment of Empirical Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs)}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, volume = {106}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {Albany}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120150129}, pages = {1235 -- 1253}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The functional form of empirical response spectral ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) is often derived using concepts borrowed from Fourier spectral modeling of ground motion. As these GMPEs are subsequently calibrated with empirical observations, this may not appear to pose any major problems in the prediction of ground motion for a particular earthquake scenario. However, the assumption that Fourier spectral concepts persist for response spectra can lead to undesirable consequences when it comes to the adjustment of response spectral GMPEs to represent conditions not covered in the original empirical data set. In this context, a couple of important questions arise, for example, what are the distinctions and/or similarities between Fourier and response spectra of ground motions? And, if they are different, then what is the mechanism responsible for such differences and how do adjustments that are made to Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) manifest in response spectra? The present article explores the relationship between the Fourier and response spectrum of ground motion by using random vibration theory (RVT). With a simple Brune (1970, 1971) source model, RVT-generated acceleration spectra for a fixed magnitude and distance scenario are used. The RVT analyses reveal that the scaling of low oscillator-frequency response spectral ordinates can be treated as being equivalent to the scaling of the corresponding Fourier spectral ordinates. However, the high oscillator-frequency response spectral ordinates are controlled by a rather wide band of Fourier spectral ordinates. In fact, the peak ground acceleration, counter to the popular perception that it is a reflection of the high-frequency characteristics of ground motion, is controlled by the entire Fourier spectrum of ground motion. Additionally, this article demonstrates how an adjustment made to FAS is similar or different to the same adjustment made to response spectral ordinates. For this purpose, two cases: adjustments to the stress parameter (Delta sigma) (source term), and adjustments to the attributes reflecting site response (V-S - kappa(0)) are considered.}, language = {en} } @article{KuehnScherbaum2016, author = {Kuehn, Nicolas M. and Scherbaum, Frank}, title = {A partially non-ergodic ground-motion prediction equation for Europe and the Middle East}, series = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, volume = {14}, journal = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1570-761X}, doi = {10.1007/s10518-016-9911-x}, pages = {2629 -- 2642}, year = {2016}, abstract = {A partially non-ergodic ground-motion prediction equation is estimated for Europe and the Middle East. Therefore, a hierarchical model is presented that accounts for regional differences. For this purpose, the scaling of ground-motion intensity measures is assumed to be similar, but not identical in different regions. This is achieved by assuming a hierarchical model, where some coefficients are treated as random variables which are sampled from an underlying global distribution. The coefficients are estimated by Bayesian inference. This allows one to estimate the epistemic uncertainty in the coefficients, and consequently in model predictions, in a rigorous way. The model is estimated based on peak ground acceleration data from nine different European/Middle Eastern regions. There are large differences in the amount of earthquakes and records in the different regions. However, due to the hierarchical nature of the model, regions with only few data points borrow strength from other regions with more data. This makes it possible to estimate a separate set of coefficients for all regions. Different regionalized models are compared, for which different coefficients are assumed to be regionally dependent. Results show that regionalizing the coefficients for magnitude and distance scaling leads to better performance of the models. The models for all regions are physically sound, even if only very few earthquakes comprise one region.}, language = {en} } @article{HaendelvonSpechtKuehnetal.2015, author = {H{\"a}ndel, Annabel and von Specht, Sebastian and Kuehn, Nicolas M. and Scherbaum, Frank}, title = {Mixtures of ground-motion prediction equations as backbone models for a logic tree: an application to the subduction zone in Northern Chile}, series = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, volume = {13}, journal = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, number = {2}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1570-761X}, doi = {10.1007/s10518-014-9636-7}, pages = {483 -- 501}, year = {2015}, abstract = {In probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, different ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are commonly combined within a logic tree framework. The selection of appropriate GMPEs, however, is a non-trivial task, especially for regions where strong motion data are sparse and where no indigenous GMPE exists because the set of models needs to capture the whole range of ground-motion uncertainty. In this study we investigate the aggregation of GMPEs into a mixture model with the aim to infer a backbone model that is able to represent the center of the ground-motion distribution in a logic tree analysis. This central model can be scaled up and down to obtain the full range of ground-motion uncertainty. The combination of models into a mixture is inferred from observed ground-motion data. We tested the new approach for Northern Chile, a region for which no indigenous GMPE exists. Mixture models were calculated for interface and intraslab type events individually. For each source type we aggregated eight subduction zone GMPEs using mainly new strong-motion data that were recorded within the Plate Boundary Observatory Chile project and that were processed within this study. We can show that the mixture performs better than any of its component GMPEs, and that it performs comparable to a regression model that was derived for the same dataset. The mixture model seems to represent the median ground motions in that region fairly well. It is thus able to serve as a backbone model for the logic tree.}, language = {en} } @article{BommerCoppersmithCoppersmithetal.2015, author = {Bommer, Julian J. and Coppersmith, Kevin J. and Coppersmith, Ryan T. and Hanson, Kathryn L. and Mangongolo, Azangi and Neveling, Johann and Rathje, Ellen M. and Rodriguez-Marek, Adrian and Scherbaum, Frank and Shelembe, Refilwe and Stafford, Peter J. and Strasser, Fleur O.}, title = {A SSHAC Level 3 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for a New-Build Nuclear Site in South Africa}, series = {Earthquake spectra : the professional journal of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute}, volume = {31}, journal = {Earthquake spectra : the professional journal of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute}, number = {2}, publisher = {Earthquake Engineering Research Institute}, address = {Oakland}, issn = {8755-2930}, doi = {10.1193/060913EQS145M}, pages = {661 -- 698}, year = {2015}, abstract = {A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been conducted for a potential nuclear power plant site on the coast of South Africa, a country of low-to-moderate seismicity. The hazard study was conducted as a SSHAC Level 3 process, the first application of this approach outside North America. Extensive geological investigations identified five fault sources with a non-zero probability of being seismogenic. Five area sources were defined for distributed seismicity, the least active being the host zone for which the low recurrence rates for earthquakes were substantiated through investigations of historical seismicity. Empirical ground-motion prediction equations were adjusted to a horizon within the bedrock at the site using kappa values inferred from weak-motion analyses. These adjusted models were then scaled to create new equations capturing the range of epistemic uncertainty in this region with no strong motion recordings. Surface motions were obtained by convolving the bedrock motions with site amplification functions calculated using measured shear-wave velocity profiles.}, language = {en} } @article{MolkenthinScherbaumGriewanketal.2015, author = {Molkenthin, Christian and Scherbaum, Frank and Griewank, Andreas and K{\"u}hn, Nicolas and Stafford, Peter J. and Leovey, Hernan}, title = {Sensitivity of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Obtained by Algorithmic Differentiation: A Feasibility Study}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, volume = {105}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, number = {3}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {Albany}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120140294}, pages = {1810 -- 1822}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA) is the current tool of the trade used to estimate the future seismic demands at a site of interest. A modern PSHA represents a complex framework that combines different models with numerous inputs. It is important to understand and assess the impact of these inputs on the model output in a quantitative way. Sensitivity analysis is a valuable tool for quantifying changes of a model output as inputs are perturbed, identifying critical input parameters, and obtaining insight about the model behavior. Differential sensitivity analysis relies on calculating first-order partial derivatives of the model output with respect to its inputs; however, obtaining the derivatives of complex models can be challenging. In this study, we show how differential sensitivity analysis of a complex framework such as PSHA can be carried out using algorithmic/automatic differentiation (AD). AD has already been successfully applied for sensitivity analyses in various domains such as oceanography and aerodynamics. First, we demonstrate the feasibility of the AD methodology by comparing AD-derived sensitivities with analytically derived sensitivities for a basic case of PSHA using a simple ground-motion prediction equation. Second, we derive sensitivities via AD for a more complex PSHA study using a stochastic simulation approach for the prediction of ground motions. The presented approach is general enough to accommodate more advanced PSHA studies of greater complexity.}, language = {en} } @article{BoraScherbaumKuehnetal.2015, author = {Bora, Sanjay Singh and Scherbaum, Frank and K{\"u}hn, Nicolas and Stafford, Peter and Edwards, Benjamin}, title = {Development of a Response Spectral Ground-Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) for Seismic-Hazard Analysis from Empirical Fourier Spectral and Duration Models}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, volume = {105}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, number = {4}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {Albany}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120140297}, pages = {2192 -- 2218}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) require adjustment to make them appropriate for site-specific scenarios. However, the process of making such adjustments remains a challenge. This article presents a holistic framework for the development of a response spectral GMPE that is easily adjustable to different seismological conditions and does not suffer from the practical problems associated with adjustments in the response spectral domain. The approach for developing a response spectral GMPE is unique, because it combines the predictions of empirical models for the two model components that characterize the spectral and temporal behavior of the ground motion. Essentially, as described in its initial form by Bora et al. (2014), the approach consists of an empirical model for the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) and a model for the ground-motion duration. These two components are combined within the random vibration theory framework to obtain predictions of response spectral ordinates. In addition, FAS corresponding to individual acceleration records are extrapolated beyond the useable frequencies using the stochastic FAS model, obtained by inversion as described in Edwards and Fah (2013a). To that end, a (oscillator) frequency-dependent duration model, consistent with the empirical FAS model, is also derived. This makes it possible to generate a response spectral model that is easily adjustable to different sets of seismological parameters, such as the stress parameter Delta sigma, quality factor Q, and kappa kappa(0). The dataset used in Bora et al. (2014), a subset of the RESORCE-2012 database, is considered for the present analysis. Based upon the range of the predictor variables in the selected dataset, the present response spectral GMPE should be considered applicable over the magnitude range of 4 <= M-w <= 7.6 at distances <= 200 km.}, language = {en} } @article{KuehnScherbaum2015, author = {K{\"u}hn, Nico M. and Scherbaum, Frank}, title = {Ground-motion prediction model building: a multilevel approach}, series = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, volume = {13}, journal = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, number = {9}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1570-761X}, doi = {10.1007/s10518-015-9732-3}, pages = {2481 -- 2491}, year = {2015}, abstract = {A Bayesian ground-motion model is presented that directly estimates the coefficients of the model and the correlation between different ground-motion parameters of interest. The model is developed as a multi-level model with levels for earthquake, station and record terms. This separation allows to estimate residuals for each level and thus the estimation of the associated aleatory variability. In particular, the usually estimated within-event variability is split into a between-station and between-record variability. In addition, the covariance structure between different ground-motion parameters of interest is estimated for each level, i.e. directly the between-event, between-station and between-record correlation coefficients are available. All parameters of the model are estimated via Bayesian inference, which allows to assess their epistemic uncertainty in a principled way. The model is developed using a recently compiled European strong-motion database. The target variables are peak ground velocity, peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at eight oscillator periods. The model performs well with respect to its residuals, and is similar to other ground-motion models using the same underlying database. The correlation coefficients are similar to those estimated for other parts of the world, with nearby periods having a high correlation. The between-station, between-event and between-record correlations follow generally a similar trend.}, language = {en} } @article{VogelRiggelsenKorupetal.2014, author = {Vogel, Kristin and Riggelsen, Carsten and Korup, Oliver and Scherbaum, Frank}, title = {Bayesian network learning for natural hazard analyses}, series = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, volume = {14}, journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences}, number = {9}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1561-8633}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-14-2605-2014}, pages = {2605 -- 2626}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Modern natural hazards research requires dealing with several uncertainties that arise from limited process knowledge, measurement errors, censored and incomplete observations, and the intrinsic randomness of the governing processes. Nevertheless, deterministic analyses are still widely used in quantitative hazard assessments despite the pitfall of misestimating the hazard and any ensuing risks. In this paper we show that Bayesian networks offer a flexible framework for capturing and expressing a broad range of uncertainties encountered in natural hazard assessments. Although Bayesian networks are well studied in theory, their application to real-world data is far from straightforward, and requires specific tailoring and adaptation of existing algorithms. We offer suggestions as how to tackle frequently arising problems in this context and mainly concentrate on the handling of continuous variables, incomplete data sets, and the interaction of both. By way of three case studies from earthquake, flood, and landslide research, we demonstrate the method of data-driven Bayesian network learning, and showcase the flexibility, applicability, and benefits of this approach. Our results offer fresh and partly counterintuitive insights into well-studied multivariate problems of earthquake-induced ground motion prediction, accurate flood damage quantification, and spatially explicit landslide prediction at the regional scale. In particular, we highlight how Bayesian networks help to express information flow and independence assumptions between candidate predictors. Such knowledge is pivotal in providing scientists and decision makers with well-informed strategies for selecting adequate predictor variables for quantitative natural hazard assessments.}, language = {en} } @article{KruegerScherbaum2014, author = {Kr{\"u}ger, Frank and Scherbaum, Frank}, title = {The 29 September 1969, Ceres, South Africa, Earthquake: full waveform moment tensor inversion for point source and kinematic source parameters}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, volume = {104}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, number = {1}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {Albany}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120130209}, pages = {576 -- 581}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The Ceres earthquake of 29 September 1969 is the largest known earthquake in southern Africa. Digitized analog recordings from Worldwide Standardized Seismographic Network stations (Powell and Fries, 1964) are used to retrieve the point source moment tensor and the most likely centroid depth of the event using full waveform modeling. A scalar seismic moment of 2.2-2.4 x 10(18) N center dot m corresponding to a moment magnitude of 6.2-6.3 is found. The analysis confirms the pure strike-slip mechanism previously determined from onset polarities by Green and Bloch (1971). Overall good agreement with the fault orientation previously estimated from local aftershock recordings is found. The centroid depth can be constrained to be less than 15 km. In a second analysis step, we use a higher order moment tensor based inversion scheme for simple extended rupture models to constrain the lateral fault dimensions. We find rupture propagated unilaterally for 4.7 s from east-southwest to west-northwest for about 17 km ( average rupture velocity of about 3: 1 km/s).}, language = {en} } @article{BoraScherbaumKuehnetal.2014, author = {Bora, Sanjay Singh and Scherbaum, Frank and K{\"u}hn, Nicolas and Stafford, Peter}, title = {Fourier spectral- and duration models for the generation of response spectra adjustable to different source-, propagation-, and site conditions}, series = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, volume = {12}, journal = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, number = {1}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1570-761X}, doi = {10.1007/s10518-013-9482-z}, pages = {467 -- 493}, year = {2014}, abstract = {One of the major challenges related with the current practice in seismic hazard studies is the adjustment of empirical ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) to different seismological environments. We believe that the key to accommodating differences in regional seismological attributes of a ground motion model lies in the Fourier spectrum. In the present study, we attempt to explore a new approach for the development of response spectral GMPEs, which is fully consistent with linear system theory when it comes to adjustment issues. This approach consists of developing empirical prediction equations for Fourier spectra and for a particular duration estimate of ground motion which is tuned to optimize the fit between response spectra obtained through the random vibration theory framework and the classical way. The presented analysis for the development of GMPEs is performed on the recently compiled reference database for seismic ground motion in Europe (RESORCE-2012). Although, the main motivation for the presented approach is the adjustability and the use of the corresponding model to generate data driven host-to-target conversions, even as a standalone response spectral model it compares reasonably well with the GMPEs of Ambraseys et al. (Bull Earthq Eng 3:1-53, 2005), Akkar and Bommer (Seismol Res Lett 81(2):195-206, 2010) and Akkar and Cagnan (Bull Seismol Soc Am 100(6):2978-2995, 2010).}, language = {en} } @article{DouglasAkkarAmerietal.2014, author = {Douglas, John and Akkar, Sinan and Ameri, Gabriele and Bard, Pierre-Yves and Bindi, Dino and Bommer, Julian J. and Bora, Sanjay Singh and Cotton, Fabrice Pierre and Derras, Boumediene and Hermkes, Marcel and Kuehn, Nicolas Martin and Luzi, Lucia and Massa, Marco and Pacor, Francesca and Riggelsen, Carsten and Sandikkaya, M. Abdullah and Scherbaum, Frank and Stafford, Peter J. and Traversa, Paola}, title = {Comparisons among the five ground-motion models developed using RESORCE for the prediction of response spectral accelerations due to earthquakes in Europe and the Middle East}, series = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, volume = {12}, journal = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, number = {1}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1570-761X}, doi = {10.1007/s10518-013-9522-8}, pages = {341 -- 358}, year = {2014}, abstract = {This article presents comparisons among the five ground-motion models described in other articles within this special issue, in terms of data selection criteria, characteristics of the models and predicted peak ground and response spectral accelerations. Comparisons are also made with predictions from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models to which the models presented here have similarities (e.g. a common master database has been used) but also differences (e.g. some models in this issue are nonparametric). As a result of the differing data selection criteria and derivation techniques the predicted median ground motions show considerable differences (up to a factor of two for certain scenarios), particularly for magnitudes and distances close to or beyond the range of the available observations. The predicted influence of style-of-faulting shows much variation among models whereas site amplification factors are more similar, with peak amplification at around 1s. These differences are greater than those among predictions from the NGA models. The models for aleatory variability (sigma), however, are similar and suggest that ground-motion variability from this region is slightly higher than that predicted by the NGA models, based primarily on data from California and Taiwan.}, language = {en} }