@article{SpoonerScheckWenderothCacaceetal.2020, author = {Spooner, Cameron and Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena and Cacace, Mauro and G{\"o}tze, Hans-J{\"u}rgen and Luijendijk, Elco}, title = {The 3D thermal field across the Alpine orogen and its forelands and the relation to seismicity}, series = {Global and planetary change}, volume = {193}, journal = {Global and planetary change}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0921-8181}, doi = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103288}, pages = {14}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Temperature exerts a first order control on rock strength, principally via thermally activated creep deformation and on the distribution at depth of the brittle-ductile transition zone. The latter can be regarded as the lower bound to the seismogenic zone, thereby controlling the spatial distribution of seismicity within a lithospheric plate. As such, models of the crustal thermal field are important to understand the localisation of seismicity. Here we relate results from 3D simulations of the steady state thermal field of the Alpine orogen and its forelands to the distribution of seismicity in this seismically active area of Central Europe. The model takes into account how the crustal heterogeneity of the region effects thermal properties and is validated with a dataset of wellbore temperatures. We find that the Adriatic crust appears more mafic, through its radiogenic heat values (1.30E-06 W/m3) and maximum temperature of seismicity (600 degrees C), than the European crust (1.3-2.6E-06 W/m3 and 450 degrees C). We also show that at depths of < 10 km the thermal field is largely controlled by sedimentary blanketing or topographic effects, whilst the deeper temperature field is primarily controlled by the LAB topology and the distribution and parameterization of radiogenic heat sources within the upper crust.}, language = {en} } @article{SpoonerScheckWenderothCacaceetal.2022, author = {Spooner, Cameron and Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena and Cacace, Mauro and Anikiev, Denis}, title = {How Alpine seismicity relates to lithospheric strength}, series = {International journal of earth sciences}, volume = {111}, journal = {International journal of earth sciences}, number = {4}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Berlin ; Heidelberg}, issn = {1437-3254}, doi = {10.1007/s00531-022-02174-5}, pages = {1201 -- 1221}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Despite the amount of research focussed on the Alpine orogen, different hypotheses still exist regarding varying spatial seismicity distribution patterns throughout the region. Previous measurement-constrained regional 3D models of lithospheric density distribution and thermal field facilitate the generation of a data-based rheological model of the region. In this study, we compute the long-term lithospheric strength and compare its spatial variation to observed seismicity patterns. We demonstrate how strength maxima within the crust (similar to 1 GPa) and upper mantle (> 2 GPa) occur at temperatures characteristic of the onset of crystal plasticity in those rocks (crust: 200-400 degrees C; mantle: similar to 600 degrees C), with almost all seismicity occurring in these regions. Correlation in the northern and southern forelands between crustal and lithospheric strengths and seismicity show different patterns of event distribution, reflecting their different tectonic settings. Seismicity in the plate boundary setting of the southern foreland corresponds to the integrated lithospheric strength, occurring mainly in the weaker domains surrounding the strong Adriatic plate. In the intraplate setting of the northern foreland, seismicity correlates to modelled crustal strength, and it mainly occurs in the weaker and warmer crust beneath the Upper Rhine Graben. We, therefore, suggest that seismicity in the upper crust is linked to weak crustal domains, which are more prone to localise deformation promoting failure and, depending on the local properties of the fault, earthquakes at relatively lower levels of accumulated stress than their neighbouring stronger counterparts. Upper mantle seismicity at depths greater than modelled brittle conditions, can be either explained by embrittlement of the mantle due to grain-size sensitive deformation within domains of active or recent slab cooling, or by dissipative weakening mechanisms, such as thermal runaway from shear heating and/or dehydration reactions within an overly ductile mantle. Results generated in this study are available for open access use to further discussions on the region.}, language = {en} } @article{SilveriiMaccaferriRichteretal.2021, author = {Silverii, Francesca and Maccaferri, Francesco and Richter, Gudrun and Gonzalez Cansado, Borja and Wang, Rongjiang and Hainzl, Sebastian and Dahm, Torsten}, title = {Poroelastic model in a vertically sealed gas storage}, series = {Geophysical journal international / the Royal Astronomical Society, the Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft and the European Geophysical Society}, volume = {227}, journal = {Geophysical journal international / the Royal Astronomical Society, the Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft and the European Geophysical Society}, number = {2}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0956-540X}, doi = {10.1093/gji/ggab268}, pages = {1322 -- 1338}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Natural gas can be temporarily stored in a variety of underground facilities, such as depleted gas and oil fields, natural aquifers and caverns in salt rocks. Being extensively monitored during operations, these systems provide a favourable opportunity to investigate how pressure varies in time and space and possibly induces/triggers earthquakes on nearby faults. Elaborate and detailed numerical modelling techniques are often applied to study gas reservoirs. Here we show the possibilities and discuss the limitations of a flexible and easily formulated tool that can be straightforwardly applied to simulate temporal pore-pressure variations and study the relation with recorded microseismic events. We use the software POEL (POroELastic diffusion and deformation) which computes the poroelastic response to fluid injection/extraction in a horizontally layered poroelastic structure. We further develop its application to address the presence of vertical impermeable faults bounding the reservoir and of multiple injection/extraction sources. Exploiting available information on the reservoir geometry and physical parameters, and records of injection/extraction rates for a gas reservoir in southern Europe, we perform an extensive parametric study considering different model configurations. Comparing modelled spatiotemporal pore-pressure variations with in situ measurements, we show that the inclusion of vertical impermeable faults provides an improvement in reproducing the observations and results in pore-pressure accumulation near the faults and in a variation of the temporal pore-pressure diffusion pattern. To study the relation between gas storage activity and recorded local microseismicity, we applied different seismicity models based on the estimated porepressure distribution. This analysis helps to understand the spatial distribution of seismicity and its temporal modulation. The results show that the observed microseismicity could be partly linked to the storage activity, but the contribution of tectonic background seismicity cannot be excluded.}, language = {en} } @article{RodriguezPicedaScheckWenderothCacaceetal.2022, author = {Rodriguez Piceda, Constanza and Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena and Cacace, Mauro and Bott, Judith and Strecker, Manfred}, title = {Long-Term Lithospheric Strength and Upper-Plate Seismicity in the Southern Central Andes, 29 degrees-39 degrees S}, series = {Geochemistry, geophysics, geosystems}, volume = {23}, journal = {Geochemistry, geophysics, geosystems}, number = {3}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {1525-2027}, doi = {10.1029/2021GC010171}, pages = {22}, year = {2022}, abstract = {We examined the relationship between the mechanical strength of the lithosphere and the distribution of seismicity within the overriding continental plate of the southern Central Andes (SCA, 29 degrees-39 degrees S), where the oceanic Nazca Plate changes its subduction angle between 33 degrees S and 35 degrees S, from subhorizontal in the north (<5 degrees) to steep in the south (similar to 30 degrees). We computed the long-term lithospheric strength based on an existing 3D model describing variations in thickness, density, and temperature of the main geological units forming the lithosphere of the SCA and adjacent forearc and foreland regions. The comparison between our results and seismicity within the overriding plate (upper-plate seismicity) shows that most of the events occur within the modeled brittle domain of the lithosphere. The depth where the deformation mode switches from brittle frictional to thermally activated ductile creep provides a conservative lower bound to the seismogenic zone in the overriding plate of the study area. We also found that the majority of upper-plate earthquakes occurs within the realm of first-order contrasts in integrated strength (12.7-13.3 log Pam in the Andean orogen vs. 13.5-13.9 log Pam in the forearc and the foreland). Specific conditions characterize the mechanically strong northern foreland of the Andes, where seismicity is likely explained by the effects of slab steepening.}, language = {en} } @article{KoberZeilingerHippeetal.2015, author = {Kober, Florian and Zeilinger, Gerold and Hippe, Kristina and Marc, Odin and Lendzioch, Theodora and Grischott, Reto and Christl, Marcus and Kubik, Peter W. and Zola, Ramiro}, title = {Tectonic and lithological controls on denudation rates in the central Bolivian Andes}, series = {Tectonophysics : international journal of geotectonics and the geology and physics of the interior of the earth}, volume = {657}, journal = {Tectonophysics : international journal of geotectonics and the geology and physics of the interior of the earth}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0040-1951}, doi = {10.1016/j.tecto.2015.06.037}, pages = {230 -- 244}, year = {2015}, abstract = {The topographic signature of a mountain belt depends on the interplay of tectonic, climatic and erosional processes, whose relative importance changes over times, while quantifying these processes and their rates at specific times remains a challenge. The eastern Andes of central Bolivia offer a natural laboratory in which such interplay has been debated. Here, we investigate the Rio Grande catchment which crosses orthogonally the eastern Andes orogen from the Eastern Cordillera into the Subandean Zone, exhibiting a catchment relief of up to 5000 m. Despite an enhanced tectonic activity in the Subandes, local relief, mean and modal slopes and channel steepness indices are largely similar compared to the Eastern Cordillera and the intervening Interandean Zone. Nevertheless, a dataset of 57 new cosmogenic 10Be and 26AI catchment wide denudation rates from the Rio Grande catchment reveals up to one order of magnitude higher denudation rates in the Subandean Zone (mean 0.8 mm/yr) compared to the upstream physiographic regions. We infer that tectonic activity in the thrusting dominated Subandean belt causes higher denudation rates based on cumulative rock uplift investigations and due to the absence of a pronounced climate gradient. Furthermore, the lower rock strength of the Subandean sedimentary units correlates with mean slopes similar to the ones of the Eastern Cordillera and Interandean Zone, highlighting the fact, that lithology and rock strength can control high denudation rates at low slopes. Low denudation rates measured at the outlet of the Rio Grande catchment (Abapo) are interpreted to be a result of a biased cosmogenic nuclide mixing that is dominated by headwater signals from the Eastern Cordillera and the Interandean zone and limited catchment sediment connectivity in the lower river reaches. Therefore, comparisons of short- (i.e., sediment yield) and millennial denudation rates require caution when postulating tectonic and/or climatic forcing without detailed studies. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.}, language = {en} } @article{DahmHainzl2022, author = {Dahm, Torsten and Hainzl, Sebastian}, title = {A Coulomb stress response model for time-dependent earthquake forecasts}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, volume = {127}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, number = {9}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9313}, doi = {10.1029/2022JB024443}, pages = {19}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Seismicity models are probabilistic forecasts of earthquake rates to support seismic hazard assessment. Physics-based models allow extrapolating previously unsampled parameter ranges and enable conclusions on underlying tectonic or human-induced processes. The Coulomb Failure (CF) and the rate-and-state (RS) models are two widely used physics-based seismicity models both assuming pre-existing populations of faults responding to Coulomb stress changes. The CF model depends on the absolute Coulomb stress and assumes instantaneous triggering if stress exceeds a threshold, while the RS model only depends on stress changes. Both models can predict background earthquake rates and time-dependent stress effects, but the RS model with its three independent parameters can additionally explain delayed aftershock triggering. This study introduces a modified CF model where the instantaneous triggering is replaced by a mean time-to-failure depending on the absolute stress value. For the specific choice of an exponential dependence on stress and a stationary initial seismicity rate, we show that the model leads to identical results as the RS model and reproduces the Omori-Utsu relation for aftershock decays as well stress-shadowing effects. Thus, both CF and RS models can be seen as special cases of the new model. However, the new stress response model can also account for subcritical initial stress conditions and alternative functions of the mean time-to-failure depending on the problem and fracture mode.}, language = {en} }