@article{VogelWeiseSchroeteretal.2018, author = {Vogel, Kristin and Weise, Laura and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Thieken, Annegret}, title = {Identifying Driving Factors in Flood-Damaging Processes Using Graphical Models}, series = {Water resources research}, volume = {54}, journal = {Water resources research}, number = {11}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0043-1397}, doi = {10.1029/2018WR022858}, pages = {8864 -- 8889}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Flood damage estimation is a core task in flood risk assessments and requires reliable flood loss models. Identifying the driving factors of flood loss at residential buildings and gaining insight into their relations is important to improve our understanding of flood damage processes. For that purpose, we learn probabilistic graphical models, which capture and illustrate (in-)dependencies between the considered variables. The models are learned based on postevent surveys with flood-affected residents after six flood events, which occurred in Germany between 2002 and 2013. Besides the sustained building damage, the survey data contain information about flooding parameters, early warning and emergency measures, property-level mitigation measures and preparedness, socioeconomic characteristics of the household, and building characteristics. The analysis considers the entire data set with a total of 4,468 cases as well as subsets of the data set partitioned into single flood events and flood types: river floods, levee breaches, surface water flooding, and groundwater floods, to reveal differences in the damaging processes. The learned networks suggest that the flood loss ratio of residential buildings is directly influenced by hydrological and hydraulic aspects as well as by building characteristics and property-level mitigation measures. The study demonstrates also that for different flood events and process types the building damage is influenced by varying factors. This suggests that flood damage models need to be capable of reproducing these differences for spatial and temporal model transfers.}, language = {en} } @article{NathoThieken2018, author = {Natho, Stephanie and Thieken, Annegret}, title = {Implementation and adaptation of a macro-scale method to assess and monitor direct economic losses caused by natural hazards}, series = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, volume = {28}, journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {2212-4209}, doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.03.008}, pages = {191 -- 205}, year = {2018}, abstract = {As one of the 195 member countries of the United Nations, Germany signed the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR). Among other targets, the SFDRR aims at reducing direct economic losses caused by natural hazards by 2030. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) has hence proposed a methodology for estimating direct economic losses per event and country, based on experiences from developing countries. Since its usability in industrialized countries is unknown, this study presents the first implementation and validation of this approach in Germany. The methodology was tested for the three costliest natural hazard types in Germany, i.e. floods, wind and hail storms, considering 12 case studies between 1984 and 2016. Although the event-specific input data requirements are restricted to the number of damaged or destroyed units per sector, incomplete event documentations did not allow a full validation of all sectors necessary to describe the total direct economic loss. New modules (cars, forestry, paved roads, housing contents and overall costs of urban infrastructure) were developed to better adapt this methodology to German conditions. Whereas the original UNISDR methodology both over-and underestimates the losses of the tested events by a wide margin, the adapted methodology is able to calculate losses accounting well for all event types except for flash floods. Hence, this approach serves as a good starting point for macro-scale loss estimations. By implementing this approach into damage and event documentation and reporting standards, a consistent monitoring of the SFDRR could be achieved.}, language = {en} } @techreport{ThiekenDierckDunstetal.2018, author = {Thieken, Annegret and Dierck, Julia and Dunst, Lea and G{\"o}pfert, Christian and Heidenreich, Anna and Hetz, Karen and Kern, Julia and Kern, Kristine and Lipp, Torsten and Lippert, Cordine and Meves, Monika and Niederhafner, Stefan and Otto, Antje and Rohrbacher, Christian and Schmidt, Katja and Strate, Leander and Stumpp, Inga and Walz, Ariane}, title = {Urbane Resilienz gegen{\"u}ber extremen Wetterereignissen - Typologien und Transfer von Anpassungsstrategien in kleinen Großst{\"a}dten und Mittelst{\"a}dten (ExTrass)}, organization = {Leibniz-Institut f{\"u}r Raumbezogene Sozialforschung, adelphi research gGmbH}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-416067}, pages = {102}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Weltweit verursachen St{\"a}dte etwa 70 \% der Treibhausgasemissionen und sind daher wichtige Akteure im Klimaschutz bzw. eine wichtige Zielgruppe von Klimapolitiken. Gleichzeitig sind St{\"a}dte besonders stark von m{\"o}glichen Auswirkungen des Klimawandels betroffen: Insbesondere extreme Wetterereignisse wie Hitzewellen oder Starkregenereignisse mit {\"U}berflutungen verursachen in St{\"a}dten hohe Sachsch{\"a}den und wirken sich negativ auf die Gesundheit der st{\"a}dtischen Bev{\"o}lkerung aus. Daher verfolgt das Projekt ExTrass das Ziel, die st{\"a}dtische Resilienz gegen{\"u}ber extremen Wetterereignissen in enger Zusammenarbeit mit Stadtverwaltungen, Strukturen des Bev{\"o}lkerungsschutzes und der Zivilgesellschaft zu st{\"a}rken. Im Fokus stehen dabei (kreisfreie) Groß- und Mittelst{\"a}dte mit 50.000 bis 500.000 Einwohnern, insbesondere die Fallstudienst{\"a}dte Potsdam, Remscheid und W{\"u}rzburg. Der vorliegende Bericht beinhaltet die Ergebnisse der 14-monatigen Definitionsphase von ExTrass, in der vor allem die Abstimmung eines Arbeitsprogramms im Mittelpunkt stand, das in einem nachfolgenden dreij{\"a}hrigen Forschungsprojekt (F+E-Phase) gemeinsam von Wissenschaft und Praxispartnern umgesetzt werden soll. Begleitend wurde eine Bestandsaufnahme von Klimaanpassungs- und Klimaschutzstrategien/-pl{\"a}nen in 99 deutschen Groß- und Mittelst{\"a}dten vorgenommen. Zudem wurden f{\"u}r Potsdam und W{\"u}rzburg Pfadanalysen f{\"u}r die Klimapolitik durchgef{\"u}hrt. Darin wird insbesondere die Bedeutung von Schl{\"u}sselakteuren deutlich. Weiterhin wurden im Rahmen von Stakeholder-Workshops Anpassungsherausforderungen und aktuelle Handlungsbedarfe in den Fallstudienst{\"a}dten identifiziert und L{\"o}sungsans{\"a}tze erarbeitet, die in der F+E-Phase entwickelt und getestet werden sollen. Neben Maßnahmen auf gesamtst{\"a}dtischer Ebene und auf Stadtteilebene wurden Maßnahmen angestrebt, die die Risikowahrnehmung, Vorsorge und Selbsthilfef{\"a}higkeit von Unternehmen und Bev{\"o}lkerung st{\"a}rken k{\"o}nnen. Daher wurde der Stand der Risikokommunikation in Deutschland f{\"u}r das Projekt aufgearbeitet und eine erste Evaluation von Risikokommunikationswerkzeugen durchgef{\"u}hrt. Der Bericht endet mit einer Kurzfassung des Arbeitsprogramms 2018-2021.}, language = {de} } @misc{JantzJann2018, author = {Jantz, Bastian and Jann, Werner}, title = {Mapping accountability changes in labour market administrations}, volume = {79}, number = {3}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-403642}, pages = {22}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The article explores how recent changes in the governance of employment services in three European countries (Denmark, Germany and Norway) have influenced accountability relationships. The overall assumption in the growing literature about accountability is that the number of actors involved in accountability arrangements is rising, that accountability relationships are becoming more numerous and complex, and that these changes may lead to contradictory accountability relationships, and finally to 'multi accountability disorder'. The article tries to explore these assumptions by analysing the different actors involved and the information requested in the new governance arrangements in all three countries. It concludes that the considerable changes in organizational arrangements and more managerial information demanded and provided have led to more shared forms of accountability. Nevertheless, a clear development towards less political or administrative accountability could not be observed.}, language = {en} } @article{GruenthalStromeyerBosseetal.2018, author = {Gr{\"u}nthal, Gottfried and Stromeyer, Dietrich and Bosse, Christian and Cotton, Fabrice and Bindi, Dino}, title = {The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany-version 2016, considering the range of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variability}, series = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, volume = {16}, journal = {Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering}, number = {10}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1570-761X}, doi = {10.1007/s10518-018-0315-y}, pages = {4339 -- 4395}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The basic seismic load parameters for the upcoming national design regulation for DIN EN 1998-1/NA result from the reassessment of the seismic hazard supported by the German Institution for Civil Engineering (DIBt). This 2016 version of the national seismic hazard assessment for Germany is based on a comprehensive involvement of all accessible uncertainties in models and parameters and includes the provision of a rational framework for integrating ranges of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities in a comprehensive and transparent way. The developed seismic hazard model incorporates significant improvements over previous versions. It is based on updated and extended databases, it includes robust methods to evolve sets of models representing epistemic uncertainties, and a selection of the latest generation of ground motion prediction equations. The new earthquake model is presented here, which consists of a logic tree with 4040 end branches and essential innovations employed for a realistic approach. The output specifications were designed according to the user oriented needs as suggested by two review teams supervising the entire project. Seismic load parameters, for rock conditions of nu(S30) = 800 m/s, are calculated for three hazard levels (10, 5 and 2\% probability of occurrence or exceedance within 50 years) and delivered in the form of uniform hazard spectra, within the spectral period range 0.02-3 s, and seismic hazard maps for peak ground acceleration, spectral response accelerations and for macroseismic intensities. Results are supplied as the mean, the median and the 84th percentile. A broad analysis of resulting uncertainties of calculated seismic load parameters is included. The stability of the hazard maps with respect to previous versions and the cross-border comparison is emphasized.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{SarnesNitu2018, author = {Sarnes-Nitu, Juliane}, title = {Mit der Schuldenbremse zu nachhaltigen Staatsfinanzen?}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-413804}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {294}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The core question of this paper is: Does the debt brake secure fiscal sustainability in Germany? To answer this question, we will first examine the effects of the introduction of the debt brake on the German federal states in the period 2010-16. For this purpose, the observed consolidation performance and the consolidation incentive or pressure experienced by the federal states were evaluated with the help of a scorecard specifically developed for this purpose. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze how the scorecard factors affect the consolidation performance of the federal states. It found that nearly 90\% of the variation was explained by the independent variables budgetary position, debt burden, revenue growth and pension burden. Thus the debt brake likely played a subordinate role in the 2009-2016 consolidation episode. Subsequently, the data collected in 65 expert interviews was used to analyze the limits of the new fiscal rule, and to determine which potential risks could hinder or prevent the debt brake in the future: municipal debt, FEUs, contingent liabilities in the form of guarantees for financial institutions and pension obligations. The frequently expressed criticism that the debt brake impedes economic growth and public investments is also reviewed and rejected. Finally, we discuss potential future developments regarding the debt brake and the German public administration as well as future consolidation efforts of the L{\"a}nder.}, language = {de} } @article{FischerMayerSchollImholtetal.2018, author = {Fischer, Stefan and Mayer-Scholl, Anne and Imholt, Christian and Spierling, Nastasja G. and Heuser, Elisa and Schmidt, Sabrina and Reil, Daniela and Rosenfeld, Ulrike and Jacob, Jens and N{\"o}ckler, Karsten and Ulrich, Rainer G.}, title = {Leptospira genomospecies and sequence type prevalence in small mammal populations in Germany}, series = {Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases}, volume = {18}, journal = {Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases}, number = {4}, publisher = {Liebert}, address = {New Rochelle}, issn = {1530-3667}, doi = {10.1089/vbz.2017.2140}, pages = {188 -- 199}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Leptospirosis is a worldwide emerging infectious disease caused by zoonotic bacteria of the genus Leptospira. Numerous mammals, including domestic and companion animals, can be infected by Leptospira spp., but rodents and other small mammals are considered the main reservoir. The annual number of recorded human leptospirosis cases in Germany (2001-2016) was 25-166. Field fever outbreaks in strawberry pickers, due to infection with Leptospira kirschneri serovar Grippotyphosa, were reported in 2007 and 2014. To identify the most commonly occurring Leptospira genomospecies, sequence types (STs), and their small mammal host specificity, a monitoring study was performed during 2010-2014 in four federal states of Germany. Initial screening of kidney tissues of 3,950 animals by PCR targeting the lipl32 gene revealed 435 rodents of 6 species and 89 shrews of three species positive for leptospiral DNA. PCR-based analyses resulted in the identification of the genomospecies L. kirschneri (62.7\%), Leptospira interrogans (28.3\%), and Leptospira borgpetersenii (9.0\%), which are represented by four, one, and two STs, respectively. The average Leptospira prevalence was highest (approximate to 30\%) in common voles (Microtus arvalis) and field voles (Microtus agrestis). Both species were exclusively infected with L. kirschneri. In contrast, in bank voles (Myodes glareolus) and yellow-necked mice (Apodemus flavicollis), DNA of all three genomospecies was detected, and in common shrews (Sorex araneus) DNA of L. kirschneri and L. borgpetersenii was identified. The association between individual infection status and demographic factors varied between species; infection status was always positively correlated to body weight. In conclusion, the study confirmed a broad geographical distribution of Leptospira in small mammals and suggested an important public health relevance of common and field voles as reservoirs of L. kirschneri. Furthermore, the investigations identified seasonal, habitat-related, as well as individual influences on Leptospira prevalence in small mammals that might impact public health.}, language = {en} } @article{FischerSpierlingHeuseretal.2018, author = {Fischer, Stefan and Spierling, Nastasja G. and Heuser, Elisa and Kling, Christopher and Schmidt, Sabrina and Rosenfeld, Ulrike and Reil, Daniela and Imholt, Christian and Jacob, Jens and Ulrich, Rainer G. and Essbauer, Sandra}, title = {High prevalence of Rickettsia helvetica in wild small mammal populations in Germany}, series = {Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases}, volume = {9}, journal = {Ticks and Tick-borne Diseases}, number = {3}, publisher = {Elsevier GMBH}, address = {M{\"u}nchen}, issn = {1877-959X}, doi = {10.1016/j.ttbdis.2018.01.009}, pages = {500 -- 505}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Since the beginning of the 21st century, spotted fever rickettsioses are known as emerging diseases worldwide. Rickettsiae are obligately intracellular bacteria transmitted by arthropod vectors. The ecology of Rickettsia species has not been investigated in detail, but small mammals are considered to play a role as reservoirs. Aim of this study was to monitor rickettsiae in wild small mammals over a period of five years in four federal states of Germany. Initial screening of ear pinna tissues of 3939 animals by Pan-Rick real-time PCR targeting the citrate synthase (gltA) gene revealed 296 rodents of seven species and 19 shrews of two species positive for rickettsial DNA. Outer membrane protein gene (ompB, ompAIV) PCRs based typing resulted in the identification of three species: Rickettsia helvetica (90.9\%) was found as the dominantly occurring species in the four investigated federal states, but Rickettsia felis (7.8\%) and Rickettsia raoultii (1.3\%) were also detected. The prevalence of Rickettsia spp. in rodents of the genus Apodemus was found to be higher (approximately 14\%) than in all other rodent and shrew species at all investigated sites. General linear mixed model analyses indicated that heavier (older) individuals of yellow-necked mice and male common voles seem to contain more often rickettsial DNA than younger ones. Furthermore, rodents generally collected in forests in summer and autumn more often carried rickettsial DNA. In conclusion, this study indicated a high prevalence of R. helvetica in small mammal populations and suggests an age-dependent increase of the DNA prevalence in some of the species and in animals originating from forest habitats. The finding of R. helvetica and R. felis DNA in multiple small mammal species may indicate frequent trans-species transmission by feeding of vectors on different species. Further investigations should target the reason for the discrepancy between the high rickettsial DNA prevalence in rodents and the so far almost absence of clinical apparent human infections.}, language = {en} }