@article{JungingerRollerOlakaetal.2014,
  author    = {Junginger, Annett and Roller, Sybille and Olaka, Lydia A. and Trauth, Martin H.},
  title     = {The effects of solar irradiation changes on the migration of the Congo Air Boundary and water levels of paleo-Lake Suguta, Northern Kenya Rift, during the African Humid Period (15-5 ka BP)},
  series = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences},
  volume    = {396},
  journal   = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0031-0182},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.palaeo.2013.12.007},
  pages     = {1 -- 16},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {The water-level record from the 300 m deep paleo-lake Suguta (Northern Kenya Rift) during the African Humid Period (AHP, 15-5 ka BP) helps to explain decadal to centennial intensity variations in the West African Monsoon (WAM) and the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). This water-level record was derived from three different sources: (1) grain size variations in radiocarbon dated and reservoir corrected lacustrine sediments, (2) the altitudes and ages of paleo-shorelines within the basin, and (3) the results of hydro-balance modeling, providing important insights into the character of water level variations (abrupt or gradual) in the amplifier paleo-Lake Suguta. The results of these comprehensive analyses suggest that the AHP highstand in the Suguta Valley was the direct consequence of a northeastwards shift in the Congo Air Boundary (CAB), which was in turn caused by an enhanced atmospheric pressure gradient between East Africa and India during a northern hemisphere insolation maximum. Rapidly decreasing water levels of up to 90 m over less than a hundred years are best explained by changes in solar irradiation either reducing the East African-Indian atmospheric pressure gradient and preventing the CAB from reaching the study area, or reducing the overall humidity in the atmosphere, or a combination of both these effects. In contrast, although not well documented in our record we hypothesize a gradual end of the AHP despite an abrupt change in the source of precipitation when a decreasing pressure gradient between Asia and Africa prevented the CAB from reaching the Suguta Valley. The abruptness was probably buffered by a contemporaneous change in precession producing an insolation maximum at the equator during October. Whether or not this is the case, the water-level record from the Suguta Valley demonstrates the importance of both orbitally-controlled insolation variations and short-term changes in solar irradiation as factors affecting the significant water level variations in East African rift lakes.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{JungingerTrauth2013,
  author    = {Junginger, Annett and Trauth, Martin H.},
  title     = {Hydrological constraints of paleo-Lake Suguta in the Northern Kenya Rift during the African Humid Period (15-5 ka BP)},
  series = {Global and planetary change},
  volume    = {111},
  journal   = {Global and planetary change},
  number    = {12},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0921-8181},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.09.005},
  pages     = {174 -- 188},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {During the African Humid Period (AHP, 15-5 ka BP) an almost 300 m deep paleo-lake covering 2200 km(2) developed in the Suguta Valley, in the Northern Kenya Rift Data from lacustrine sediments and paleo-shorelines indicate that a large paleo-lake already existed by 13.9 ka BP, and record rapid water level fluctuations of up to 100 m within periods of 100 years or less, and a final lowstand at the end of the AHP (5 ka BP). We used a hydro-balance model to assess the abruptness of these water level fluctuations and identify their causes. We observed that fluctuations within the AHP were caused by abrupt changes in precipitation of 26-40\%. Despite the absence of continuous lacustrine data documenting the onset of the AHP in the Suguta Valley, we conclude from the hydro-balance model that only an abrupt onset to the AHP, prior to 14.8 ka BP, could have led to high water levels recorded. The modeling results suggest that the sudden increase in rainfall was the direct consequence of an eastward migration of the Congo Air Boundary (CAB), caused by an enhanced atmospheric pressure gradient between East Africa and southern Asia during a northern hemisphere (NH) summer insolation maximum. In contrast the end of the AHP must have been gradual despite an abrupt change in the source of precipitation when a decreasing pressure gradient between Asia and Africa prevented the CAB from reaching the study area. This abruptness was probably buffered by a contemporaneous change in precession producing an insolation maximum at the equator during September-October. This change would have meant that the only rain source was the Intertropical Convergence Zone (IT CZ), which would have carried a greater amount of moisture during the short rainy season thus slowing the fall in water level over a period of about 1000 years in association with the reduction in insolation. The results of this study provide an indication of the amount of time available for humans in north-eastern Africa to adapt in response to a changing climate, from hunting and gathering to farming and herding.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Junginger2011,
  author    = {Junginger, Annett},
  title     = {East African climate variability on different time scales : the Suguta Valley in the African-Asian Monsoon Domain},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-56834},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2011},
  abstract  = {Motivation | Societal and economic needs of East Africa rely entirely on the availability of water, which is governed by the regular onset and retreat of the rainy seasons. Fluctuations in the amounts of rainfall has tremendous impact causing widespread famine, disease outbreaks and human migrations. Efforts towards high resolution forecasting of seasonal precipitation and hydrological systems are therefore needed, which requires high frequency short to long-term analyses of available climate data that I am going to present in this doctoral thesis by three different studies. 15,000 years - Suguta Valley | The main study of this thesis concentrated on the understanding of humidity changes within the last African Humid Period (AHP, 14.8-5.5 ka BP). The nature and causes of intensity variations of the West-African (WAM) and Indian Summer monsoons (ISM) during the AHP, especially their exact influence on regional climate relative to each other, is currently intensely debated. Here, I present a high-resolution multiproxy lake-level record spanning the AHP from the remote Suguta Valley in the northern Kenya Rift, located between the WAM and ISM domains. The presently desiccated valley was during the AHP filled by a 300 m deep and 2200 km2 large palaeo-lake due to an increase in precipitation of only 26\%. The record explains the synchronous onset of large lakes in the East African Rift System (EARS) with the longitudinal shift of the Congo Air Boundary (CAB) over the East African and Ethiopian Plateaus, as the direct consequence of an enhanced atmospheric pressure gradient between East-Africa and India due to a precessional-forced northern hemisphere insolation maximum. Pronounced, and abrupt lake level fluctuations during the generally wet AHP are explained by small-scale solar irradiation changes weakening this pressure gradient atmospheric moisture availability preventing the CAB from reaching the study area. Instead, the termination of the AHP occurred, in a non-linear manner due to a change towards an equatorial insolation maximum ca. 6.5 ka ago extending the AHP over Ethiopia and West-Africa. 200 years - Lake Naivasha | The second part of the thesis focused on the analysis of a 200 year-old sediment core from Lake Naivasha in the Central Kenya Rift, one of the very few present freshwater lakes in East Africa. The results revealed and confirmed, that the appliance of proxy records for palaeo-climate reconstruction for the last 100 years within a time of increasing industrialisation and therefore human impact to the proxy-record containing sites are broadly limited. Since the middle of the 20th century, intense anthropogenic activity around Lake Naivasha has led to cultural eutrophication, which has overprinted the influence of natural climate variation to the lake usually inferred from proxy records such as diatoms, transfer-functions, geochemical and sedimentological analysis as used in this study. The results clarify the need for proxy records from remote unsettled areas to contribute with pristine data sets to current debates about anthropologic induced global warming since the past 100 years. 14 years - East African Rift | In order to avoid human influenced data sets and validate spatial and temporal heterogeneities of proxy-records from East Africa, the third part of the thesis therefore concentrated on the most recent past 14 years (1996-2010) detecting climate variability by using remotely sensed rainfall data. The advancement in the spatial coverage and temporal resolutions of rainfall data allow a better understanding of influencing climate mechanisms and help to better interpret proxy-records from the EARS in order to reconstruct past climate conditions. The study focuses on the dynamics of intraseasonal rainfall distribution within catchments of eleven lake basins in the EARS that are often used for palaeo-climate studies. We discovered that rainfall in adjacent basins exhibits high complexities in the magnitudes of intraseasonal variability, biennial to triennial precipitation patterns and even are not necessarily correlated often showing opposite trends. The variability among the watersheds is driven by the complex interaction of topography, in particular the shape, length and elevation of the catchment and its relative location to the East African Rift System and predominant influence of the ITCZ or CAB, whose locations and intensities are dependent on the strength of low pressure cells over India, SST variations in the Atlantic, Pacific or Indian Ocean, QBO phases and the 11-year solar cycle. Among all seasons we observed, January-September is the season of highest and most complex rainfall variability, especially for the East African Plateau basins, most likely due to the irregular penetration and sensitivity of the CAB.},
  language  = {en}
}