@phdthesis{Leins2023, author = {Leins, Johannes A.}, title = {Combining model detail with large scales}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-58283}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-582837}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {xv, 168}, year = {2023}, abstract = {The global climate crisis is significantly contributing to changing ecosystems, loss of biodiversity and is putting numerous species on the verge of extinction. In principle, many species are able to adapt to changing conditions or shift their habitats to more suitable regions. However, change is progressing faster than some species can adjust, or potential adaptation is blocked and disrupted by direct and indirect human action. Unsustainable anthropogenic land use in particular is one of the driving factors, besides global heating, for these ecologically critical developments. Precisely because land use is anthropogenic, it is also a factor that could be quickly and immediately corrected by human action. In this thesis, I therefore assess the impact of three climate change scenarios of increasing intensity in combination with differently scheduled mowing regimes on the long-term development and dispersal success of insects in Northwest German grasslands. The large marsh grasshopper (LMG, Stethophyma grossum, Linn{\´e} 1758) is used as a species of reference for the analyses. It inhabits wet meadows and marshes and has a limited, yet fairly good ability to disperse. Mowing and climate conditions affect the development and mortality of the LMG differently depending on its life stage. The specifically developed simulation model HiLEG (High-resolution Large Environmental Gradient) serves as a tool for investigating and projecting viability and dispersal success under different climate conditions and land use scenarios. It is a spatially explicit, stage- and cohort-based model that can be individually configured to represent the life cycle and characteristics of terrestrial insect species, as well as high-resolution environmental data and the occurrence of external disturbances. HiLEG is a freely available and adjustable software that can be used to support conservation planning in cultivated grasslands. In the three case studies of this thesis, I explore various aspects related to the structure of simulation models per se, their importance in conservation planning in general, and insights regarding the LMG in particular. It became apparent that the detailed resolution of model processes and components is crucial to project the long-term effect of spatially and temporally confined events. Taking into account conservation measures at the regional level has further proven relevant, especially in light of the climate crisis. I found that the LMG is benefiting from global warming in principle, but continues to be constrained by harmful mowing regimes. Land use measures could, however, be adapted in such a way that they allow the expansion and establishment of the LMG without overly affecting agricultural yields. Overall, simulation models like HiLEG can make an important contribution and add value to conservation planning and policy-making. Properly used, simulation results shed light on aspects that might be overlooked by subjective judgment and the experience of individual stakeholders. Even though it is in the nature of models that they are subject to limitations and only represent fragments of reality, this should not keep stakeholders from using them, as long as these limitations are clearly communicated. Similar to HiLEG, models could further be designed in such a way that not only the parameterization can be adjusted as required, but also the implementation itself can be improved and changed as desired. This openness and flexibility should become more widespread in the development of simulation models.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Hunke2015, author = {Hunke, Philip Paul}, title = {The Brazilian Cerrado: ecohydrological assessment of water and soil degradation in heavily modified meso-scale catchments}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-85110}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {xi, 124}, year = {2015}, abstract = {The Brazilian Cerrado is recognised as one of the most threatened biomes in the world, as the region has experienced a striking change from natural vegetation to intense cash crop production. The impacts of rapid agricultural expansion on soil and water resources are still poorly understood in the region. Therefore, the overall aim of the thesis is to improve our understanding of the ecohydrological processes causing water and soil degradation in the Brazilian Cerrado. I first present a metaanalysis to provide quantitative evidence and identifying the main impacts of soil and water alterations resulting from land use change. Second, field studies were conducted to (i) examine the effects of land use change on soils of natural cerrado transformed to common croplands and pasture and (ii) indicate how agricultural production affects water quality across a meso-scale catchment. Third, the ecohydrological process-based model SWAT was tested with simple scenario analyses to gain insight into the impacts of land use and climate change on the water cycling in the upper S{\~a}o Louren{\c{c}}o catchment which experienced decreasing discharges in the last 40 years. Soil and water quality parameters from different land uses were extracted from 89 soil and 18 water studies in different regions across the Cerrado. Significant effects on pH, bulk density and available P and K for croplands and less-pronounced effects on pastures were evident. Soil total N did not differ between land uses because most of the cropland sites were N-fixing soybean cultivations, which are not artificially fertilized with N. By contrast, water quality studies showed N enrichment in agricultural catchments, indicating fertilizer impacts and potential susceptibility to eutrophication. Regardless of the land use, P is widely absent because of the high-fixing capacities of deeply weathered soils and the filtering capacity of riparian vegetation. Pesticides, however, were consistently detected throughout the entire aquatic system. In several case studies, extremely high-peak concentrations exceeded Brazilian and EU water quality limits, which pose serious health risks. My field study revealed that land conversion caused a significant reduction in infiltration rates near the soil surface of pasture (-96 \%) and croplands (-90 \% to -93 \%). Soil aggregate stability was significantly reduced in croplands than in cerrado and pasture. Soybean crops had extremely high extractable P (80 mg kg-1), whereas pasture N levels declined. A snapshot water sampling showed strong seasonality in water quality parameters. Higher temperature, oxi-reduction potential (ORP), NO2-, and very low oxygen concentrations (<5 mg•l-1) and saturation (<60 \%) were recorded during the rainy season. By contrast, remarkably high PO43- concentrations (up to 0.8 mg•l-1) were measured during the dry season. Water quality parameters were affected by agricultural activities at all sampled sub-catchments across the catchment, regardless of stream characteristic. Direct NO3- leaching appeared to play a minor role; however, water quality is affected by topsoil fertiliser inputs with impact on small low order streams and larger rivers. Land conversion leaving cropland soils more susceptible to surface erosion by increased overland flow events. In a third study, the field data were used to parameterise SWAT. The model was tested with different input data and calibrated in SWAT-CUP using the SUFI-2 algorithm. The model was judged reliable to simulate the water balance in the Cerrado. A complete cerrado, pasture and cropland cover was used to analyse the impact of land use on water cycling as well as climate change projections (2039-2058) according to the projections of the RCP 8.5 scenario. The actual evapotranspiration (ET) for the cropland scenario was higher compared to the cerrado cover (+100 mm a-1). Land use change scenarios confirmed that deforestation caused higher annual ET rates explaining partly the trend of decreased streamflow. Taking all climate change scenarios into account, the most likely effect is a prolongation of the dry season (by about one month), with higher peak flows in the rainy season. Consequently, potential threats for crop production with lower soil moisture and increased erosion and sediment transport during the rainy season are likely and should be considered in adaption plans. From the three studies of the thesis I conclude that land use intensification is likely to seriously limit the Cerrado's future regarding both agricultural productivity and ecosystem stability. Because only limited data are available for the vast biome, we recommend further field studies to understand the interaction between terrestrial and aquatic systems. This thesis may serve as a valuable database for integrated modelling to investigate the impact of land use and climate change on soil and water resources and to test and develop mitigation measures for the Cerrado in the future.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Koenig2012, author = {K{\"o}nig, Hannes Jochen}, title = {Operationalising sustainability impact assessment of land use scenarios in developing countries : a stakeholder-based approach with case studies in China, India, Indonesia, Kenya, and Tunisia}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-63672}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Growing populations, continued economic development, and limited natural resources are critical factors affecting sustainable development. These factors are particularly pertinent in developing countries in which large parts of the population live at a subsistence level and options for sustainable development are limited. Therefore, addressing sustainable land use strategies in such contexts requires that decision makers have access to evidence-based impact assessment tools that can help in policy design and implementation. Ex-ante impact assessment is an emerging field poised at the science-policy interface and is used to assess the potential impacts of policy while also exploring trade-offs between economic, social and environmental sustainability targets. The objective of this study was to operationalise the impact assessment of land use scenarios in the context of developing countries that are characterised by limited data availability and quality. The Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA) was selected for this study because it allows for the integration of various sustainability dimensions, the handling of complexity, and the incorporation of local stakeholder perceptions. FoPIA, which was originally developed for the European context, was adapted to the conditions of developing countries, and its implementation was demonstrated in five selected case studies. In each case study, different land use options were assessed, including (i) alternative spatial planning policies aimed at the controlled expansion of rural-urban development in the Yogyakarta region (Indonesia), (ii) the expansion of soil and water conservation measures in the Oum Zessar watershed (Tunisia), (iii) the use of land conversion and the afforestation of agricultural areas to reduce soil erosion in Guyuan district (China), (iv) agricultural intensification and the potential for organic agriculture in Bijapur district (India), and (v) land division and privatisation in Narok district (Kenya). The FoPIA method was effectively adapted by dividing the assessment into three conceptual steps: (i) scenario development; (ii) specification of the sustainability context; and (iii) scenario impact assessment. A new methodological approach was developed for communicating alternative land use scenarios to local stakeholders and experts and for identifying recommendations for future land use strategies. Stakeholder and expert knowledge was used as the main sources of information for the impact assessment and was complemented by available quantitative data. Based on the findings from the five case studies, FoPIA was found to be suitable for implementing the impact assessment at case study level while ensuring a high level of transparency. FoPIA supports the identification of causal relationships underlying regional land use problems, facilitates communication among stakeholders and illustrates the effects of alternative decision options with respect to all three dimensions of sustainable development. Overall, FoPIA is an appropriate tool for performing preliminary assessments but cannot replace a comprehensive quantitative impact assessment, and FoPIA should, whenever possible, be accompanied by evidence from monitoring data or analytical tools. When using FoPIA for a policy oriented impact assessment, it is recommended that the process should follow an integrated, complementary approach that combines quantitative models, scenario techniques, and participatory methods.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Zaehle2005, author = {Zaehle, S{\"o}nke}, title = {Process-based simulation of the terrestrial biosphere : an evaluation of present-day and future terrestrial carbon balance estimates and their uncertainty}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-5263}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2005}, abstract = {At present, carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems slows the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and thereby reduces the impact of anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions on the climate system. Changes in climate and land use affect terrestrial biosphere structure and functioning at present, and will likely impact on the terrestrial carbon balance during the coming decades - potentially providing a positive feedback to the climate system due to soil carbon releases under a warmer climate. Quantifying changes, and the associated uncertainties, in regional terrestrial carbon budgets resulting from these effects is relevant for the scientific understanding of the Earth system and for long-term climate mitigation strategies. A model describing the relevant processes that govern the terrestrial carbon cycle is a necessary tool to project regional carbon budgets into the future. This study (1) provides an extensive evaluation of the parameter-based uncertainty in model results of a leading terrestrial biosphere model, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM), against a range of observations and under climate change, thereby complementing existing studies on other aspects of model uncertainty; (2) evaluates different hypotheses to explain the age-related decline in forest growth, both from theoretical and experimental evidence, and introduces the most promising hypothesis into the model; (3) demonstrates how forest statistics can be successfully integrated with process-based modelling to provide long-term constraints on regional-scale forest carbon budget estimates for a European forest case-study; and (4) elucidates the combined effects of land-use and climate changes on the present-day and future terrestrial carbon balance over Europe for four illustrative scenarios - implemented by four general circulation models - using a comprehensive description of different land-use types within the framework of LPJ-DGVM. This study presents a way to assess and reduce uncertainty in process-based terrestrial carbon estimates on a regional scale. The results of this study demonstrate that simulated present-day land-atmosphere carbon fluxes are relatively well constrained, despite considerable uncertainty in modelled net primary production. Process-based terrestrial modelling and forest statistics are successfully combined to improve model-based estimates of vegetation carbon stocks and their change over time. Application of the advanced model for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with stand age compare favourably with forest inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Driven by historic changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area and wood demand between 1948 and 2000, the model predicts European-scale, present-day age structure of forests, ratio of biomass removals to increment, and vegetation carbon sequestration rates that are consistent with inventory-based estimates. Alternative scenarios of climate and land-use change in the 21st century suggest carbon sequestration in the European terrestrial biosphere during the coming decades will likely be on magnitudes relevant to climate mitigation strategies. However, the uptake rates are small in comparison to the European emissions from fossil fuel combustion, and will likely decline towards the end of the century. Uncertainty in climate change projections is a key driver for uncertainty in simulated land-atmosphere carbon fluxes and needs to be accounted for in mitigation studies of the terrestrial biosphere.}, subject = {Terrestrische {\"O}kologie}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Fritsch2002, author = {Fritsch, Uta}, title = {Entwicklung von Landnutzungsszenarien f{\"u}r landschafts{\"o}kologische Fragestellungen}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-0000431}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2002}, abstract = {Die Landschaften Mitteleuropas sind das Resultat einer langwierigen Geschichte menschlicher Landnutzung mit ihren unterschiedlichen, z.T. konkurrierenden Nutzungsanspr{\"u}chen. Durch eine {\"u}berwiegend intensive Beanspruchung haben die direkten und indirekten Auswirkungen der Landnutzung in vielen F{\"a}llen zu Umweltproblemen gef{\"u}hrt. Die Disziplin der Landschafts{\"o}kologie hat es sich zur Aufgabe gemacht, Konzepte f{\"u}r eine nachhaltige Nutzung der Landschaft zu entwickeln. Eine wichtige Fragestellung stellt dabei die Absch{\"a}tzung der m{\"o}glichen Folgen von Landnutzungs{\"a}nderungen dar. F{\"u}r die Analyse der relevanten Prozesse in der Landschaft werden h{\"a}ufig mathematische Modelle eingesetzt, welche es erlauben die Landschaft unter aktuellen Verh{\"a}ltnissen oder hinsichtlich ver{\"a}nderter Rahmenbedingungen zu untersuchen. Die hypothetische {\"A}nderung der Landnutzung, die als Landnutzungsszenario bezeichnet wird, verk{\"o}rpert eine wesentliche Modifikation der Rahmenbedingungen, weil Landnutzung maßgeblich Einfluss auf die nat{\"u}rlichen Prozesse der Landschaft nimmt. W{\"a}hrend die Antriebskr{\"a}fte einer solchen {\"A}nderung {\"u}berwiegend von sozio-{\"o}konomischen und politischen Entscheidungen gesteuert werden, orientiert sich die exakte Verortung der Landnutzungs{\"a}nderungen an den naturr{\"a}umlichen Bedingungen und folgt z.T. erkennbaren Regeln. Anhand dieser Vorgaben ist es m{\"o}glich, r{\"a}umlich explizite Landnutzungsszenarien zu entwickeln, die als Eingangsdaten f{\"u}r die Modellierung verschiedener landschafts{\"o}kologischer Fragestellungen wie z.B. f{\"u}r die Untersuchung des Einflusses der Landnutzung auf den Wasserhaushalt, die Erosionsgefahr oder die Habitatqualit{\"a}t dienen k{\"o}nnen. Im Rahmen dieser Dissertation wurde das rasterbasierte deterministische Allokationsmodell luck (Land Use Change Scenario Kit) f{\"u}r die explizite Verortung der Landnutzungs{\"a}nderungen entwickelt. Es basiert auf den in der Landschafts{\"o}kologie {\"u}blichen r{\"a}umlichen Daten wie Landnutzung, Boden sowie Topographie und richtet sich bei der Szenarienableitung nach den Leitbildern der Landschaftsplanung. Das Modell fußt auf der Hypothese, dass das Landnutzungsmuster als Funktion seiner landschafts{\"o}kologischen Faktoren beschrieben werden kann. Das Ver{\"a}nderungspotenzial einer Landnutzungseinheit resultiert im Modell aus einer Kombination der Bewertung der relativen Eignung des Standortes f{\"u}r die jeweilige Landnutzung und der Ber{\"u}cksichtigung von Standorteigenschaften der umliegenden Nachbarn. Die Durchf{\"u}hrung der Landnutzungs{\"a}nderung im Modell ist iterativ angelegt, um den graduellen Prozess des Landschaftswandels nachvollziehen zu k{\"o}nnen. Als Fallbeispiel f{\"u}r die Anwendung solcher r{\"a}umlich expliziten Landnutzungsszenarien dient die Fragestellung, inwieweit Landnutzungs{\"a}nderungen die Hochwasserentstehung beeinflussen. Um den Einfluss auf die Hochwasserentstehung f{\"u}r jede der Landnutzungskategorien \– bebaute, landwirtschaftlich genutzte und naturnahe Fl{\"a}chen \– absch{\"a}tzen zu k{\"o}nnen, wird im Landnutzungsmodell luck exemplarisch f{\"u}r jede Kategorie ein Teilmodell f{\"u}r die Ver{\"a}nderung von Landnutzung angeboten: 1) Ausdehnung der Siedlungsfl{\"a}che: Dieses Teilmodell fußt auf der Annahme, dass sich Siedlungen nur in direkter Nachbarschaft bereits bestehender Bebauung und bevorzugt entlang von Entwicklungsachsen ausbreiten. Steile Hangneigungen stellen f{\"u}r potenzielle Standorte ein Hemmnis bei der Ausbreitung dar. 2) Stilllegung von Grenzertragsackerfl{\"a}chen: Gem{\"a}ß der Hypothese, dass sich die Stilllegung von Ackerfl{\"a}chen an der potenziellen Ertragsleistung der Standorte orientiert, werden in diesem Teilmodell alle Ackerstandorte dahingehend bewertet und die Fl{\"a}chen mit der geringsten Leistungsf{\"a}higkeit stillgelegt. Bei homogenen Gebietseigenschaften werden die Stilllegungsfl{\"a}chen zuf{\"a}llig auf die Ackerfl{\"a}che verteilt. 3) Etablierung von Schutzgebieten in Ufer- und Auenbereichen: Ausgehend von der These, dass sich entlang von Fl{\"u}ssen sensible Fl{\"a}chen befinden, deren Schutz positive Folgen f{\"u}r das Leistungsverm{\"o}gen der Landschaft haben kann, werden in diesem Teilmodell sch{\"u}tzenswerte Ufer- und Auenbereiche auf derzeit landwirtschaftlich genutzten Fl{\"a}chen ausgewiesen. Die Gr{\"o}ße der Schutzgebietsfl{\"a}che orientiert sich an der Morphologie der umgebenden Landschaft. Die drei Teilmodelle wurden hinsichtlich der implizierten Hypothesen mit vielen unterschiedlichen Ans{\"a}tzen validiert. Das Resultat dieser intensiven Analyse zeigt f{\"u}r jedes Teilmodell eine zufriedenstellende Tauglichkeit. Die Modellierung der Landnutzungs{\"a}nderungen wurden in drei mesoskaligen Flusseinzugsgebieten mit einer Fl{\"a}che zwischen 100 und 500 km\&\#178; durchgef{\"u}hrt, die sich markant in ihrer Landnutzung unterscheiden. Besonderer Wert wurde bei der Gebietsauswahl darauf gelegt, dass eines der Gebiete intensiv landwirtschaftlich genutzt wird, eines dicht besiedelt und eines vorwiegend bewaldet ist. Im Hinblick auf ihre Relevanz f{\"u}r die vorliegende Fragestellung wurden aus bestehenden Landnutzungstrends die Szenarien f{\"u}r (1) die prognostizierte Siedlungsfl{\"a}che f{\"u}r das Jahr 2010, (2) die m{\"o}glichen Konsequenzen des EU-weiten Beschlusses der Agenda 2000 und (3) die Novelle des Bundesnaturschutzgesetzes aus dem Jahr 2001 abgeleitet. Jedes Szenario wurde mit Hilfe des Modells auf die drei Untersuchungsgebiete angewendet. Dabei wurden f{\"u}r die Siedlungsausdehnung in allen drei Gebieten realistische Landnutzungsmuster generiert. Einschr{\"a}nkungen ergeben sich bei der Suche nach Grenzertragsstilllegungsfl{\"a}chen. Hier hat unter homogenen Gebietseigenschaften die zuf{\"a}llige Verteilung von Fl{\"a}chen f{\"u}r die Stilllegung zu einem unrealistischen Ergebnis gef{\"u}hrt. Die G{\"u}te der Schutzgebietsausweisung ist maßgeblich an die aktuelle Landnutzung der Aue und die Morphologie des Gel{\"a}ndes gebunden. Die besten Ergebnisse werden erzielt, wenn die Fl{\"a}chen in den Ufer- und Auenbereichen mehrheitlich unter derzeitiger Ackernutzung stehen und der Flusslauf sich in das Relief eingetieft hat. Exemplarisch werden f{\"u}r jeden Landnutzungstrend die hydrologischen Auswirkungen anhand eines historischen Hochwassers beschrieben, aus denen jedoch keine pauschale Aussage zum Einfluss der Landnutzung abgeleitet werden kann. Die Studie demonstriert die Bedeutung des Landnutzungsmusters f{\"u}r die nat{\"u}rlichen Prozesse in der Landschaft und unterstreicht die Notwendigkeit einer r{\"a}umlich expliziten Modellierung f{\"u}r landschafts{\"o}kologische Fragestellungen in der Mesoskala.}, subject = {Landnutzung}, language = {de} }