@phdthesis{Thieken2009, author = {Thieken, Annegret}, title = {Floods, flood losses and flood risk management in Germany}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-29164}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2009}, abstract = {Die vorliegende Habilitation besch{\"a}ftigt sich mit verschiedenen Aspekten des Hochwasserrisikos in Deutschland. In zw{\"o}lf Artikeln werden neue wissenschaftliche Erkenntnisse {\"u}ber Hochwassergefahren, {\"u}ber Faktoren, die Hochwassersch{\"a}den beeinflussen, sowie {\"u}ber effektive private Vorsorgemaßnahmen pr{\"a}sentiert. So wird die jahreszeitliche Verteilung von Hochwasser in ganz Deutschland gezeigt. Weiterhin werden m{\"o}gliche Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Abflussverh{\"a}ltnisse und H{\"a}ufigkeiten von Hochwasserereignissen am Beispiel des Rhein-Einzugsgebietes abgesch{\"a}tzt. Ferner wird am Niederrhein simuliert, welche Auswirkungen Deichbr{\"u}che haben k{\"o}nnen. Hochwassersch{\"a}den stehen im zweiten Teil der Arbeit im Fokus: Nach dem August-Hochwasser 2002 wurden ca. 1700 Privathaushalte telefonisch befragt. Damit konnten die Einfl{\"u}sse verschiedener Faktoren, wie der {\"U}berflutungsdauer oder der Verunreinigung des Hochwassers mit {\"O}l, auf die H{\"o}he von finanziellen Sch{\"a}den quantifiziert werden. Daraus ist zum einen ein neues Modell entstanden, mit dem Hochwassersch{\"a}den großr{\"a}umig berechnet werden k{\"o}nnen. Zum anderen konnten Hinweise f{\"u}r die Verbesserung der privaten Vorsorge abgeleitet werden. Beispielsweise zeigte sich, dass versicherte Haushalte schneller und besser entsch{\"a}digt werden als Nicht-Versicherte. Ebenfalls wurde deutlich, dass verschiedene Bev{\"o}lkerungsgruppen, wie Mieter und Hauseigent{\"u}mer, unterschiedliche M{\"o}glichkeiten haben, Vorsorge zu betreiben. Dies ist zuk{\"u}nftig in der Risikokommunikation zu ber{\"u}cksichtigen. In den Jahren 2005 und 2006 waren Elbe und Donau wiederum von Hochwasser betroffen. Eine erneute Befragung von Privathaushalten und Beh{\"o}rden erm{\"o}glichte, die Verbesserung des Hochwasserrisikomanagement und der Vorsorge am Beispiel der Stadt Dresden zu untersuchen. Viele Methoden und Erkenntnisse dieser Arbeit sind in der wasserwirtschaftlichen Praxis anwendbar und tragen somit zur Verbesserung der Hochwasserrisikoanalyse und des Risikomanagements in Deutschland bei.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Thonicke2019, author = {Thonicke, Kirsten}, title = {The influence of disturbance, climate extremes and land-use change on vegetation dynamics}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2019}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Schroeter2020, author = {Schr{\"o}ter, Kai}, title = {Improved flood risk assessment}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-48024}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-480240}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {408}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Rivers have always flooded their floodplains. Over 2.5 billion people worldwide have been affected by flooding in recent decades. The economic damage is also considerable, averaging 100 billion US dollars per year. There is no doubt that damage and other negative effects of floods can be avoided. However, this has a price: financially and politically. Costs and benefits can be estimated through risk assessments. Questions about the location and frequency of floods, about the objects that could be affected and their vulnerability are of importance for flood risk managers, insurance companies and politicians. Thus, both variables and factors from the fields of hydrology and sociol-economics play a role with multi-layered connections. One example are dikes along a river, which on the one hand contain floods, but on the other hand, by narrowing the natural floodplains, accelerate the flood discharge and increase the danger of flooding for the residents downstream. Such larger connections must be included in the assessment of flood risk. However, in current procedures this is accompanied by simplifying assumptions. Risk assessments are therefore fuzzy and associated with uncertainties. This thesis investigates the benefits and possibilities of new data sources for improving flood risk assessment. New methods and models are developed, which take the mentioned interrelations better into account and also quantify the existing uncertainties of the model results, and thus enable statements about the reliability of risk estimates. For this purpose, data on flood events from various sources are collected and evaluated. This includes precipitation and flow records at measuring stations as well as for instance images from social media, which can help to delineate the flooded areas and estimate flood damage with location information. Machine learning methods have been successfully used to recognize and understand correlations between floods and impacts from a wide range of data and to develop improved models. Risk models help to develop and evaluate strategies to reduce flood risk. These tools also provide advanced insights into the interplay of various factors and on the expected consequences of flooding. This work shows progress in terms of an improved assessment of flood risks by using diverse data from different sources with innovative methods as well as by the further development of models. Flood risk is variable due to economic and climatic changes, and other drivers of risk. In order to keep the knowledge about flood risks up-to-date, robust, efficient and adaptable methods as proposed in this thesis are of increasing importance.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Samaniego2021, author = {Samaniego, Luis}, title = {Drought modeling and forecasting}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {xxvii, 273}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Over millennia, droughts could not be understood or defined but rather were associated with mystical connotations. To understand this natural hazards, we first needed to understand the laws of physics and then develop plausible explanations of inner workings of the hydrological cycle. Consequently, modeling and predicting droughts was out of the scope of mankind until the end of the last century. In recent studies, it is estimated that this natural hazard has caused billions of dollars in losses since 1900 and that droughts have affected 2.2 billion people worldwide between 1950 and 2014. For these reasons, droughts have been identified by the IPCC as the trigger of a web of impacts across many sectors leading to land degradation, migration and substantial socio-economic costs. This thesis summarizes a decade of research carried out at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research on the subject of drought monitoring, modeling, and forecasting, from local to continental scales. The overarching objectives of this study, systematically addressed in the twelve previous chapters, are: 1) Create the capability to seamless monitor and predict water fluxes at various spatial resolutions and temporal scales varying from days to centuries; 2) Develop and test a modeling chain for monitoring, forecasting and predicting drought events and related characteristics at national and continental scales; and 3) Develop drought indices and impact indicators that are useful for end-users. Key outputs of this study are: the development of the open source model mHM, the German Drought Monitor System, the proof of concept for an European multi-model for improving water managent from local to continental scales, and the prototype of a crop-yield drought impact model for Germany.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Schwanghart2022, author = {Schwanghart, Wolfgang}, title = {Digital elevation model analysis in geomorphology and natural hazards research}, year = {2022}, language = {en} }