@article{GuttZurellBracegridleetal.2012,
  author    = {Gutt, Julian and Zurell, Damaris and Bracegridle, Thomas J. and Cheung, William and Clark, Melody S. and Convey, Peter and Danis, Bruno and David, Bruno and De Broyer, Claude and di Prisco, Guido and Griffiths, Huw and Laffont, Remi and Peck, Lloyd S. and Pierrat, Benjamin and Riddle, Martin J. and Saucede, Thomas and Turner, John and Verde, Cinzia and Wang, Zhaomin and Grimm, Volker},
  title     = {Correlative and dynamic species distribution modelling for ecological predictions in the Antarctic a cross-disciplinary concept},
  series = {Polar research : a Norwegian journal of Polar research},
  volume    = {31},
  journal   = {Polar research : a Norwegian journal of Polar research},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {Co-Action Publ.},
  address   = {Jarfalla},
  issn      = {0800-0395},
  doi       = {10.3402/polar.v31i0.11091},
  pages     = {23},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Developments of future scenarios of Antarctic ecosystems are still in their infancy, whilst predictions of the physical environment are recognized as being of global relevance and corresponding models are under continuous development. However, in the context of environmental change simulations of the future of the Antarctic biosphere are increasingly demanded by decision makers and the public, and are of fundamental scientific interest. This paper briefly reviews existing predictive models applied to Antarctic ecosystems before providing a conceptual framework for the further development of spatially and temporally explicit ecosystem models. The concept suggests how to improve approaches to relating species' habitat description to the physical environment, for which a case study on sea urchins is presented. In addition, the concept integrates existing and new ideas to consider dynamic components, particularly information on the natural history of key species, from physiological experiments and biomolecular analyses. Thereby, we identify and critically discuss gaps in knowledge and methodological limitations. These refer to process understanding of biological complexity, the need for high spatial resolution oceanographic data from the entire water column, and the use of data from biomolecular analyses in support of such ecological approaches. Our goal is to motivate the research community to contribute data and knowledge to a holistic, Antarctic-specific, macroecological framework. Such a framework will facilitate the integration of theoretical and empirical work in Antarctica, improving our mechanistic understanding of this globally influential ecoregion, and supporting actions to secure this biodiversity hotspot and its ecosystem services.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SocherPratiBochetal.2012,
  author    = {Socher, Stephanie A. and Prati, Daniel and Boch, Steffen and M{\"u}ller, J{\"o}rg and Klaus, Valentin H. and H{\"o}lzel, Norbert and Fischer, Markus},
  title     = {Direct and productivity-mediated indirect effects of fertilization, mowing and grazing on grassland species richness},
  series = {The journal of ecology},
  volume    = {100},
  journal   = {The journal of ecology},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0022-0477},
  doi       = {10.1111/j.1365-2745.2012.02020.x},
  pages     = {1391 -- 1399},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Recent declines in biodiversity have given new urgency to questions about the relationship between land-use change, biodiversity and ecosystem processes. Despite the existence of a large body of research on the effects of land use on species richness, it is unclear whether the effects of land use on species richness are principally direct or indirect, mediated by concomitant changes in ecosystem processes. Therefore, we compared the direct effects of land use (fertilization, mowing and grazing) on species richness with indirect ones (mediated via grassland productivity) for grasslands in central Europe. We measured the richness and above-ground biomass in 150 grassland plots in 3 regions of Germany (the so-called Biodiversity Exploratories). We used univariate and structural equation models to examine direct and indirect land-use effects. The direct effects of mowing (-0.37, effect size) and grazing (0.04) intensity on species richness were stronger compared with the indirect effects of mowing (-0.04) and grazing (-0.01). However, the strong negative effect of fertilization (-0.23) on species richness was mainly indirect, mediated by increased productivity compared with the weak direct negative effect (-0.07). Differences between regions in land-use effects showed five times weaker negative effects of mowing (-0.13) in the region with organic soils (Schorfheide-Chorin), strong overall negative effects of grazing (-0.29) for the region with organic soils opposed to a similar strong positive effect (0.30) in the Hainich-Dun region, whereas the Schwabische Alb region displayed a five times weaker positive effect (0.06) only. Further, fertilization effects on species richness were positive (0.03) for the region with organic soils compared to up to 25 times stronger negative effects in the other two regions. Synthesis. Our results clearly show the importance of studying both direct and indirect effects of land-use intensity. They demonstrate the indirect nature, via productivity, of the negative effect of fertilization intensity on plant species richness in the real-world context of management-induced gradients of intensity of fertilization, mowing and grazing. Finally, they highlight that careful consideration of regional environments is necessary before attempting to generalize land-use effects on species diversity.},
  language  = {en}
}