@article{KorupMohrManga2021,
  author    = {Korup, Oliver and Mohr, Christian Heinrich and Manga, Michael M.},
  title     = {Bayesian detection of streamflow response to earthquakes},
  series = {Water resources research : an AGU journal},
  volume    = {57},
  journal   = {Water resources research : an AGU journal},
  number    = {7},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken, NJ},
  issn      = {0043-1397},
  doi       = {10.1029/2020WR028874},
  pages     = {10},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Detecting whether and how river discharge responds to strong earthquake shaking can be time-consuming and prone to operator bias when checking hydrographs from hundreds of gauging stations. We use Bayesian piecewise regression models to show that up to a fifth of all gauging stations across Chile had their largest change in daily streamflow trend on the day of the M-w 8.8 Maule earthquake in 2010. These stations cluster distinctly in the near field though the number of detected streamflow changes varies with model complexity and length of time window considered. Credible seismic streamflow changes at several stations were the highest detectable in eight months, with an increased variance of discharge surpassing the variance of discharge following rainstorms. We conclude that Bayesian piecewise regression sheds new and unbiased insights on the duration, trend, and variance of streamflow response to strong earthquakes, and on how this response compares to that following rainstorms.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Mohr2013,
  author    = {Mohr, Christian Heinrich},
  title     = {Hydrological and erosion responses to man-made and natural disturbances : insights from forested catchments in South-central Chile},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-70146},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {Logging and large earthquakes are disturbances that may significantly affect hydrological and erosional processes and process rates, although in decisively different ways. Despite numerous studies that have documented the impacts of both deforestation and earthquakes on water and sediment fluxes, a number of details regarding the timing and type of de- and reforestation; seismic impacts on subsurface water fluxes; or the overall geomorphic work involved have remained unresolved. The main objective of this thesis is to address these shortcomings and to better understand and compare the hydrological and erosional process responses to such natural and man-made disturbances. To this end, south-central Chile provides an excellent natural laboratory owing to its high seismicity and the ongoing conversion of land into highly productive plantation forests. In this dissertation I combine paired catchment experiments, data analysis techniques, and physics-based modelling to investigate: 1) the effect of plantation forests on water resources, 2) the source and sink behavior of timber harvest areas in terms of overland flow generation and sediment fluxes, 3) geomorphic work and its efficiency as a function of seasonal logging, 4) possible hydrologic responses of the saturated zone to the 2010 Maule earthquake and 5) responses of the vadose zone to this earthquake. Re 1) In order to quantify the hydrologic impact of plantation forests, it is fundamental to first establish their water balances. I show that tree species is not significant in this regard, i.e. Pinus radiata and Eucalyptus globulus do not trigger any decisive different hydrologic response. Instead, water consumption is more sensitive to soil-water supply for the local hydro-climatic conditions. Re 2) Contradictory opinions exist about whether timber harvest areas (THA) generate or capture overland flow and sediment. Although THAs contribute significantly to hydrology and sediment transport because of their spatial extent, little is known about the hydrological and erosional processes occurring on them. I show that THAs may act as both sources and sinks for overland flow, which in turn intensifies surface erosion. Above a rainfall intensity of ~20 mm/h, which corresponds to <10\% of all rainfall, THAs may generate runoff whereas below that threshold they remain sinks. The overall contribution of Hortonian runoff is thus secondary considering the local rainfall regime. The bulk of both runoff and sediment is generated by Dunne, saturation excess, overland flow. I also show that logging may increase infiltrability on THAs which may cause an initial decrease in streamflow followed by an increase after the groundwater storage has been refilled. Re 3) I present changes in frequency-magnitude distributions following seasonal logging by applying Quantile Regression Forests at hitherto unprecedented detail. It is clearly the season that controls the hydro-geomorphic work efficiency of clear cutting. Logging, particularly dry seasonal logging, caused a shift of work efficiency towards less flashy and mere but more frequent moderate rainfall-runoff events. The sediment transport is dominated by Dunne overland flow which is consistent with physics-based modelling using WASA-SED. Re 4) It is well accepted that earthquakes may affect hydrological processes in the saturated zone. Assuming such flow conditions, consolidation of saturated saprolitic material is one possible response. Consolidation raises the hydraulic gradients which may explain the observed increase in discharge following earthquakes. By doing so, squeezed water saturates the soil which in turn increases the water accessible for plant transpiration. Post-seismic enhanced transpiration is reflected in the intensification of diurnal cycling. Re 5) Assuming unsaturated conditions, I present the first evidence that the vadose zone may also respond to seismic waves by releasing pore water which in turn feeds groundwater reservoirs. By doing so, water tables along the valley bottoms are elevated thus providing additional water resources to the riparian vegetation. By inverse modelling, the transient increase in transpiration is found to be 30-60\%. Based on the data available, both hypotheses, are not testable. Finally, when comparing the hydrological and erosional effects of the Maule earthquake with the impact of planting exotic plantation forests, the overall observed earthquake effects are comparably small, and limited to short time scales.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MohrMangaWald2018,
  author    = {Mohr, Christian Heinrich and Manga, Michael and Wald, David},
  title     = {Stronger peak ground motion, beyond the threshold to initiate a response, does not lead to larger stream discharge responses to earthquakes},
  series = {Geophysical research letters},
  volume    = {45},
  journal   = {Geophysical research letters},
  number    = {13},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {0094-8276},
  doi       = {10.1029/2018GL078621},
  pages     = {6523 -- 6531},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {The impressive number of stream gauges in Chile, combined with a suite of past and recent large earthquakes, makes Chile a unique natural laboratory to study several streams that recorded responses to multiple seismic events. We document changes in discharge in eight streams in Chile following two or more large earthquakes. In all cases, discharge increases. Changes in discharge occur for peak ground velocities greater than about 7-11cm/s. Above that threshold, the magnitude of both the increase in discharge and the total excess water do not increase with increasing peak ground velocities. While these observations are consistent with previous work in California, they conflict with lab experiments that show that the magnitude of permeability changes increases with increasing amplitude of ground motion. Instead, our study suggests that streamflow responses are binary. Plain Language Summary Earthquakes deform and shake the surface and the ground below. These changes may affect groundwater flows by increasing the permeability along newly formed cracks and/or clearing clogged pores. As a result, groundwater flow may substantially increase after earthquakes and remain elevated for several months. Here we document streamflow anomalies following multiple high magnitude earthquakes in multiple streams in one of the most earthquake prone regions worldwide, Chile. We take advantage of the dense monitoring network in Chile that recorded streamflow since the 1940s. We show that once a critical ground motion is exceeded, streamflow responses to earthquakes can be expected.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{TolorzaMohrCarretieretal.2019,
  author    = {Tolorza, Violeta and Mohr, Christian Heinrich and Carretier, Sebastien and Serey, Amador and Sepulveda, Sergio A. and Tapia, Joseline and Pinto, Luisa},
  title     = {Suspended sediments in chilean rivers reveal low postseismic erosion after the maule earthquake (Mw 8.8) during a severe drought},
  series = {Journal of geophysical research : Earth surface},
  volume    = {124},
  journal   = {Journal of geophysical research : Earth surface},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {2169-9003},
  doi       = {10.1029/2018JF004766},
  pages     = {1378 -- 1397},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {We address the question of whether all large-magnitude earthquakes produce an erosion peak in the subaerial components of fluvial catchments. We evaluate the sediment flux response to the Maule earthquake in the Chilean Andes (Mw 8.8) using daily suspended sediment records from 31 river gauges. The catchments cover drainage areas of 350 to around 10,000 km(2), including a wide range of topographic slopes and vegetation cover of the Andean western flank. We compare the 3- to 8-year postseismic record of sediment flux to each of the following preseismic periods: (1) all preseismic data, (2) a 3-year period prior to the seismic event, and (3) the driest preseismic periods, as drought conditions prevailed in the postseismic period. Following the earthquake, no increases in suspended sediment flux were observed for moderate to high percentiles of the streamflow distribution (mean, median, and >= 75th percentile). However, more than half of the examined stations showed increased sediment flux during baseflow. By using a Random Forest approach, we evaluate the contributions of seismic intensities, peak ground accelerations, co-seismic landslides, hydroclimatic conditions, topography, lithology, and land cover to explain the observed changes in suspended sediment concentration and fluxes. We find that the best predictors are hillslope gradient, low-vegetation cover, and changes in streamflow discharge. This finding suggests a combined first-order control of topography, land cover, and hydrology on the catchment-wide erosion response. We infer a reduced sediment connectivity due to the postseismic drought, which increased the residence time of sediment detached and remobilized following the Maule earthquake.},
  language  = {en}
}