@article{ChristakoudiTsilidisMulleretal.2020, author = {Christakoudi, Sofa and Tsilidis, Konstantinos K. and Muller, David C. and Freisling, Heinz and Weiderpass, Elisabete and Overvad, Kim and S{\"o}derberg, Stefan and H{\"a}ggstr{\"o}m, Christel and Pischon, Tobias and Dahm, Christina C. and Zhang, Jie and Tj{\o}nneland, Anne and Schulze, Matthias Bernd}, title = {A Body Shape Index (ABSI) achieves better mortality risk stratification than alternative indices of abdominal obesity: results from a large European cohort}, series = {Scientific Reports}, volume = {10}, journal = {Scientific Reports}, number = {1}, publisher = {Springer Nature}, address = {Berlin}, pages = {15}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Abdominal and general adiposity are independently associated with mortality, but there is no consensus on how best to assess abdominal adiposity. We compared the ability of alternative waist indices to complement body mass index (BMI) when assessing all-cause mortality. We used data from 352,985 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for other risk factors. During a mean follow-up of 16.1 years, 38,178 participants died. Combining in one model BMI and a strongly correlated waist index altered the association patterns with mortality, to a predominantly negative association for BMI and a stronger positive association for the waist index, while combining BMI with the uncorrelated A Body Shape Index (ABSI) preserved the association patterns. Sex-specific cohort-wide quartiles of waist indices correlated with BMI could not separate high-risk from low-risk individuals within underweight (BMI<18.5 kg/m(2)) or obese (BMI30 kg/m(2)) categories, while the highest quartile of ABSI separated 18-39\% of the individuals within each BMI category, which had 22-55\% higher risk of death. In conclusion, only a waist index independent of BMI by design, such as ABSI, complements BMI and enables efficient risk stratification, which could facilitate personalisation of screening, treatment and monitoring.}, language = {en} } @article{CiemerRehmKurthsetal.2020, author = {Ciemer, Catrin and Rehm, Lars and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Donner, Reik Volker and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Boers, Niklas}, title = {An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures}, series = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {15}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, number = {9}, publisher = {IOP - Institute of Physics Publishing}, address = {Bristol}, pages = {10}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.}, language = {en} } @article{Korup2020, author = {Korup, Oliver}, title = {Bayesian geomorphology}, series = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group}, volume = {46}, journal = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0197-9337}, doi = {10.1002/esp.4995}, pages = {151 -- 172}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The rapidly growing amount and diversity of data are confronting us more than ever with the need to make informed predictions under uncertainty. The adverse impacts of climate change and natural hazards also motivate our search for reliable predictions. The range of statistical techniques that geomorphologists use to tackle this challenge has been growing, but rarely involves Bayesian methods. Instead, many geomorphic models rely on estimated averages that largely miss out on the variability of form and process. Yet seemingly fixed estimates of channel heads, sediment rating curves or glacier equilibrium lines, for example, are all prone to uncertainties. Neighbouring scientific disciplines such as physics, hydrology or ecology have readily embraced Bayesian methods to fully capture and better explain such uncertainties, as the necessary computational tools have advanced greatly. The aim of this article is to introduce the Bayesian toolkit to scientists concerned with Earth surface processes and landforms, and to show how geomorphic models might benefit from probabilistic concepts. I briefly review the use of Bayesian reasoning in geomorphology, and outline the corresponding variants of regression and classification in several worked examples.}, language = {en} } @article{MooijTrolleJeppesenetal.2010, author = {Mooij, Wolf M. and Trolle, Dennis and Jeppesen, Erik and Arhonditsis, George B. and Belolipetsky, Pavel V. and Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B. R. and Degermendzhy, Andrey G. and DeAngelis, Donald L. and Domis, Lisette Nicole de Senerpont and Downing, Andrea S. and Elliott, J. Alex and Fragoso Jr, Carlos Ruberto and Gaedke, Ursula and Genova, Svetlana N. and Gulati, Ramesh D. and H{\aa}kanson, Lars and Hamilton, David P. and Hipsey, Matthew R. and 't Hoen, Jochem and H{\"u}lsmann, Stephan and Los, F. Hans and Makler-Pick, Vardit and Petzoldt, Thomas and Prokopkin, Igor G. and Rinke, Karsten and Schep, Sebastiaan A. and Tominaga, Koji and Van Dam, Anne A. and Van Nes, Egbert H. and Wells, Scott A. and Janse, Jan H.}, title = {Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches}, series = {Aquatic ecology}, volume = {44}, journal = {Aquatic ecology}, publisher = {Springer Science + Business Media B.V.}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1573-5125}, doi = {10.1007/s10452-010-9339-3}, pages = {633 -- 667}, year = {2010}, abstract = {A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and traitbased models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models.}, language = {en} } @article{Rabovsky2020, author = {Rabovsky, Milena}, title = {Change in a probabilistic representation of meaning can account for N400 effects on articles}, series = {Neuropsychologia : an international journal in behavioural and cognitive neuroscience}, volume = {143}, journal = {Neuropsychologia : an international journal in behavioural and cognitive neuroscience}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0028-3932}, doi = {10.1016/j.neuropsychologia.2020.107466}, pages = {7}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Increased N400 amplitudes on indefinite articles (a/an) incompatible with expected nouns have been initially taken as strong evidence for probabilistic pre-activation of phonological word forms, and recently been intensely debated because they have been difficult to replicate. Here, these effects are simulated using a neural network model of sentence comprehension that we previously used to simulate a broad range of empirical N400 effects. The model produces the effects when the cue validity of the articles concerning upcoming noun meaning in the learning environment is high, but fails to produce the effects when the cue validity of the articles is low due to adjectives presented between articles and nouns during training. These simulations provide insight into one of the factors potentially contributing to the small size of the effects in empirical studies and generate predictions for cross-linguistic differences in article induced N400 effects based on articles' cue validity. The model accounts for article induced N400 effects without assuming pre-activation of word forms, and instead simulates these effects as the stimulus-induced change in a probabilistic representation of meaning corresponding to an implicit semantic prediction error.}, language = {en} } @article{Rabovsky2020, author = {Rabovsky, Milena}, title = {Change in a probabilistic representation of meaning can account for N400 effects on articles: a neural network model}, series = {Neuropsychologia}, volume = {143}, journal = {Neuropsychologia}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, pages = {7}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Increased N400 amplitudes on indefinite articles (a/an) incompatible with expected nouns have been initially taken as strong evidence for probabilistic pre-activation of phonological word forms, and recently been intensely debated because they have been difficult to replicate. Here, these effects are simulated using a neural network model of sentence comprehension that we previously used to simulate a broad range of empirical N400 effects. The model produces the effects when the cue validity of the articles concerning upcoming noun meaning in the learning environment is high, but fails to produce the effects when the cue validity of the articles is low due to adjectives presented between articles and nouns during training. These simulations provide insight into one of the factors potentially contributing to the small size of the effects in empirical studies and generate predictions for cross-linguistic differences in article induced N400 effects based on articles' cue validity. The model accounts for article induced N400 effects without assuming pre-activation of word forms, and instead simulates these effects as the stimulus-induced change in a probabilistic representation of meaning corresponding to an implicit semantic prediction error.}, language = {en} } @article{ZoellerHainzlTilmannetal.2020, author = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Hainzl, Sebastian and Tilmann, Frederik and Woith, Heiko and Dahm, Torsten}, title = {Comment on: Wikelski, Martin; M{\"u}ller, Uschi; Scocco, Paola; Catorci, Andrea; Desinov, Lev V.; Belyaev, Mikhail Y.; Keim, Daniel A.; Pohlmeier, Winfried; Fechteler, Gerhard; Mai, Martin P. : Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring. - Ethology. - 126 (2020), 9. - S. 931 - 941. -ISSN 0179-1613. - eISSN 1439-0310. - doi 10.1111/eth.13078}, series = {Ethology}, volume = {127}, journal = {Ethology}, number = {3}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0179-1613}, doi = {10.1111/eth.13105}, pages = {302 -- 306}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Based on an analysis of continuous monitoring of farm animal behavior in the region of the 2016 M6.6 Norcia earthquake in Italy, Wikelski et al., 2020; (Seismol Res Lett, 89, 2020, 1238) conclude that animal activity can be anticipated with subsequent seismic activity and that this finding might help to design a "short-term earthquake forecasting method." We show that this result is based on an incomplete analysis and misleading interpretations. Applying state-of-the-art methods of statistics, we demonstrate that the proposed anticipatory patterns cannot be distinguished from random patterns, and consequently, the observed anomalies in animal activity do not have any forecasting power.}, language = {en} } @article{ZoellerBenZion2014, author = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Ben-Zion, Yehuda}, title = {Large earthquake hazard of the San Jacinto fault zone, CA, from long record of simulated seismicity assimilating the available instrumental and paleoseismic data}, series = {Pure and applied geophysics}, volume = {171}, journal = {Pure and applied geophysics}, number = {11}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Basel}, issn = {0033-4553}, doi = {10.1007/s00024-014-0783-1}, pages = {2955 -- 2965}, year = {2014}, abstract = {We investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on different sections of the SJFZ is found to be close to random. The hazard associated with m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on the SJFZ increases significantly if the long record of simulated seismicity is taken into account. The model simulations indicate that the recent increased number of observed intermediate SJFZ earthquakes is a robust statistical feature heralding the occurrence of m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquakes. The hypocenters of the m a parts per thousand yen 5 events in the simulation results move progressively towards the hypocenter of the upcoming m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquake.}, language = {en} } @article{ProtGentileAndersonetal.2014, author = {Prot, Sara and Gentile, Douglas A. and Anderson, Craig A. and Suzuki, Kanae and Swing, Edward and Lim, Kam Ming and Horiuchi, Yukiko and Jelic, Margareta and Krah{\´e}, Barbara and Wei Liuqing, and Liau, Albert K. and Khoo, Angeline and Petrescu, Poesis Diana and Sakamoto, Akira and Tajima, Sachi and Toma, Roxana Andreea and Warburton, Wayne and Zhang, Xuemin and Lam, Ben Chun Pan}, title = {Long-term relations among prosocial-media use, empathy, and prosocial behavior}, series = {Psychological science : research, theory, \& application in psychology and related sciences}, volume = {25}, journal = {Psychological science : research, theory, \& application in psychology and related sciences}, number = {2}, publisher = {Sage Publ.}, address = {Thousand Oaks}, issn = {0956-7976}, doi = {10.1177/0956797613503854}, pages = {358 -- 368}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Despite recent growth of research on the effects of prosocial media, processes underlying these effects are not well understood. Two studies explored theoretically relevant mediators and moderators of the effects of prosocial media on helping. Study 1 examined associations among prosocial- and violent-media use, empathy, and helping in samples from seven countries. Prosocial-media use was positively associated with helping. This effect was mediated by empathy and was similar across cultures. Study 2 explored longitudinal relations among prosocial-video-game use, violent-video-game use, empathy, and helping in a large sample of Singaporean children and adolescents measured three times across 2 years. Path analyses showed significant longitudinal effects of prosocial- and violent-video-game use on prosocial behavior through empathy. Latent-growth-curve modeling for the 2-year period revealed that change in video-game use significantly affected change in helping, and that this relationship was mediated by change in empathy.}, language = {en} } @article{VaidSomaniRussaketal.2020, author = {Vaid, Akhil and Somani, Sulaiman and Russak, Adam J. and De Freitas, Jessica K. and Chaudhry, Fayzan F. and Paranjpe, Ishan and Johnson, Kipp W. and Lee, Samuel J. and Miotto, Riccardo and Richter, Felix and Zhao, Shan and Beckmann, Noam D. and Naik, Nidhi and Kia, Arash and Timsina, Prem and Lala, Anuradha and Paranjpe, Manish and Golden, Eddye and Danieletto, Matteo and Singh, Manbir and Meyer, Dara and O'Reilly, Paul F. and Huckins, Laura and Kovatch, Patricia and Finkelstein, Joseph and Freeman, Robert M. and Argulian, Edgar and Kasarskis, Andrew and Percha, Bethany and Aberg, Judith A. and Bagiella, Emilia and Horowitz, Carol R. and Murphy, Barbara and Nestler, Eric J. and Schadt, Eric E. and Cho, Judy H. and Cordon-Cardo, Carlos and Fuster, Valentin and Charney, Dennis S. and Reich, David L. and B{\"o}ttinger, Erwin and Levin, Matthew A. and Narula, Jagat and Fayad, Zahi A. and Just, Allan C. and Charney, Alexander W. and Nadkarni, Girish N. and Glicksberg, Benjamin S.}, title = {Machine learning to predict mortality and critical events in a cohort of patients with COVID-19 in New York City: model development and validation}, series = {Journal of medical internet research : international scientific journal for medical research, information and communication on the internet ; JMIR}, volume = {22}, journal = {Journal of medical internet research : international scientific journal for medical research, information and communication on the internet ; JMIR}, number = {11}, publisher = {Healthcare World}, address = {Richmond, Va.}, issn = {1439-4456}, doi = {10.2196/24018}, pages = {19}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Background: COVID-19 has infected millions of people worldwide and is responsible for several hundred thousand fatalities. The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated thoughtful resource allocation and early identification of high-risk patients. However, effective methods to meet these needs are lacking. Objective: The aims of this study were to analyze the electronic health records (EHRs) of patients who tested positive for COVID-19 and were admitted to hospitals in the Mount Sinai Health System in New York City; to develop machine learning models for making predictions about the hospital course of the patients over clinically meaningful time horizons based on patient characteristics at admission; and to assess the performance of these models at multiple hospitals and time points. Methods: We used Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and baseline comparator models to predict in-hospital mortality and critical events at time windows of 3, 5, 7, and 10 days from admission. Our study population included harmonized EHR data from five hospitals in New York City for 4098 COVID-19-positive patients admitted from March 15 to May 22, 2020. The models were first trained on patients from a single hospital (n=1514) before or on May 1, externally validated on patients from four other hospitals (n=2201) before or on May 1, and prospectively validated on all patients after May 1 (n=383). Finally, we established model interpretability to identify and rank variables that drive model predictions. Results: Upon cross-validation, the XGBoost classifier outperformed baseline models, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) for mortality of 0.89 at 3 days, 0.85 at 5 and 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days. XGBoost also performed well for critical event prediction, with an AUC-ROC of 0.80 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. In external validation, XGBoost achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.88 at 3 days, 0.86 at 5 days, 0.86 at 7 days, and 0.84 at 10 days for mortality prediction. Similarly, the unimputed XGBoost model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.78 at 3 days, 0.79 at 5 days, 0.80 at 7 days, and 0.81 at 10 days. Trends in performance on prospective validation sets were similar. At 7 days, acute kidney injury on admission, elevated LDH, tachypnea, and hyperglycemia were the strongest drivers of critical event prediction, while higher age, anion gap, and C-reactive protein were the strongest drivers of mortality prediction. Conclusions: We externally and prospectively trained and validated machine learning models for mortality and critical events for patients with COVID-19 at different time horizons. These models identified at-risk patients and uncovered underlying relationships that predicted outcomes.}, language = {en} } @article{StillmanRailsbackGiskeetal.2015, author = {Stillman, Richard A. and Railsback, Steven Floyd and Giske, Jarl and Berger, Uta and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Making Predictions in a Changing World: The Benefits of Individual-Based Ecology}, series = {Bioscience}, volume = {65}, journal = {Bioscience}, number = {2}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0006-3568}, doi = {10.1093/biosci/biu192}, pages = {140 -- 150}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Ecologists urgently need a better ability to predict how environmental change affects biodiversity. We examine individual-based ecology (IBE), a research paradigm that promises better a predictive ability by using individual-based models (IBMs) to represent ecological dynamics as arising from how individuals interact with their environment and with each other. A key advantage of IBMs is that the basis for predictions-fitness maximization by individual organisms-is more general and reliable than the empirical relationships that other models depend on. Case studies illustrate the usefulness and predictive success of long-term IBE programs. The pioneering programs had three phases: conceptualization, implementation, and diversification. Continued validation of models runs throughout these phases. The breakthroughs that make IBE more productive include standards for describing and validating IBMs, improved and standardized theory for individual traits and behavior, software tools, and generalized instead of system-specific IBMs. We provide guidelines for pursuing IBE and a vision for future IBE research.}, language = {en} } @article{BaerenzungHolschneiderWichtetal.2018, author = {B{\"a}renzung, Julien and Holschneider, Matthias and Wicht, Johannes and Sanchez, Sabrina and Lesur, Vincent}, title = {Modeling and predicting the short-term evolution of the geomagnetic field}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, volume = {123}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, number = {6}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9313}, doi = {10.1029/2017JB015115}, pages = {4539 -- 4560}, year = {2018}, abstract = {We propose a reduced dynamical system describing the coupled evolution of fluid flow and magnetic field at the top of the Earth's core between the years 1900 and 2014. The flow evolution is modeled with a first-order autoregressive process, while the magnetic field obeys the classical frozen flux equation. An ensemble Kalman filter algorithm serves to constrain the dynamics with the geomagnetic field and its secular variation given by the COV-OBS.x1 model. Using a large ensemble with 40,000 members provides meaningful statistics including reliable error estimates. The model highlights two distinct flow scales. Slowly varying large-scale elements include the already documented eccentric gyre. Localized short-lived structures include distinctly ageostophic features like the high-latitude polar jet on the Northern Hemisphere. Comparisons with independent observations of the length-of-day variations not only validate the flow estimates but also suggest an acceleration of the geostrophic flows over the last century. Hindcasting tests show that our model outperforms simpler predictions bases (linear extrapolation and stationary flow). The predictability limit, of about 2,000 years for the magnetic dipole component, is mostly determined by the random fast varying dynamics of the flow and much less by the geomagnetic data quality or lack of small-scale information.}, language = {en} } @article{SprinzdeMesquitaKallbekkenetal.2016, author = {Sprinz, Detlef F. and de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno and Kallbekken, Steffen and Stokman, Frans and Saelen, Hakon and Thomson, Robert}, title = {Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations}, series = {Politics and Governance}, volume = {4}, journal = {Politics and Governance}, publisher = {Cogitatio Press}, address = {Lisbon}, issn = {2183-2463}, doi = {10.17645/pag.v4i3.654}, pages = {172 -- 187}, year = {2016}, abstract = {We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world's leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer's Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combining experts' predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts' predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulation models were not statistically significant.}, language = {en} } @article{VaidChanChaudharyetal.2021, author = {Vaid, Akhil and Chan, Lili and Chaudhary, Kumardeep and Jaladanki, Suraj K. and Paranjpe, Ishan and Russak, Adam J. and Kia, Arash and Timsina, Prem and Levin, Matthew A. and He, John Cijiang and B{\"o}ttinger, Erwin and Charney, Alexander W. and Fayad, Zahi A. and Coca, Steven G. and Glicksberg, Benjamin S. and Nadkarni, Girish N.}, title = {Predictive approaches for acute dialysis requirement and death in COVID-19}, series = {Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN}, volume = {16}, journal = {Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN}, number = {8}, publisher = {American Society of Nephrology}, address = {Washington}, organization = {MSCIC}, issn = {1555-9041}, doi = {10.2215/CJN.17311120}, pages = {1158 -- 1168}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Background and objectives AKI treated with dialysis initiation is a common complication of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among hospitalized patients. However, dialysis supplies and personnel are often limited. Design, setting, participants, \& measurements Using data from adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from five hospitals from theMount Sinai Health System who were admitted between March 10 and December 26, 2020, we developed and validated several models (logistic regression, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), random forest, and eXtreme GradientBoosting [XGBoost; with and without imputation]) for predicting treatment with dialysis or death at various time horizons (1, 3, 5, and 7 days) after hospital admission. Patients admitted to theMount Sinai Hospital were used for internal validation, whereas the other hospitals formed part of the external validation cohort. Features included demographics, comorbidities, and laboratory and vital signs within 12 hours of hospital admission. Results A total of 6093 patients (2442 in training and 3651 in external validation) were included in the final cohort. Of the different modeling approaches used, XGBoost without imputation had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve on internal validation (range of 0.93-0.98) and area under the precisionrecall curve (AUPRC; range of 0.78-0.82) for all time points. XGBoost without imputation also had the highest test parameters on external validation (AUROC range of 0.85-0.87, and AUPRC range of 0.27-0.54) across all time windows. XGBoost without imputation outperformed all models with higher precision and recall (mean difference in AUROC of 0.04; mean difference in AUPRC of 0.15). Features of creatinine, BUN, and red cell distribution width were major drivers of the model's prediction. Conclusions An XGBoost model without imputation for prediction of a composite outcome of either death or dialysis in patients positive for COVID-19 had the best performance, as compared with standard and other machine learning models.}, language = {en} } @article{StadlerOttSpringeretal.2012, author = {Stadler, Waltraud and Ott, Derek V. M. and Springer, Anne and Schubotz, Ricarda I. and Sch{\"u}tz-Bosbach, Simone and Prinz, Wolfgang}, title = {Repetitive TMS suggests a role of the human dorsal premotor cortex in action prediction}, series = {Frontiers in human neuroscienc}, volume = {6}, journal = {Frontiers in human neuroscienc}, number = {2}, publisher = {Frontiers Research Foundation}, address = {Lausanne}, issn = {1662-5161}, doi = {10.3389/fnhum.2012.00020}, pages = {11}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Predicting the actions of other individuals is crucial for our daily interactions. Recent evidence suggests that the prediction of object-directed arm and full-body actions employs the dorsal premotor cortex (PMd). Thus, the neural substrate involved in action control may also be essential for action prediction. Here, we aimed to address this issue and hypothesized that disrupting the PMd impairs action prediction. Using fMRI-guided coil navigation, rTMS (five pulses, 10Hz) was applied over the left PMd and over the vertex (control region) while participants observed everyday actions in video clips that were transiently occluded for 1s. The participants detected manipulations in the time course of occluded actions, which required them to internally predict the actions during occlusion. To differentiate between functional roles that the PMd could play in prediction, rTMS was either delivered at occluder-onset (TMS-early), affecting the initiation of action prediction, or 300 ms later during occlusion(TMS-late), affecting the maintenance of anongoing prediction. TMS-early over the left PMd produced more prediction errors than TMS-early over the vertex. TMS-late had no effect on prediction performance, suggesting that the left PMd might be involved particularly during the initiation of internally guided action prediction but may play a subordinate role in maintaining ongoing prediction. These findings open a new perspective on the role of the left PMd in action prediction which is in line with its functions in action control and in cognitive tasks. In the discussion, there levance of the left PMd for integrating external action parameters with the observer's motor repertoire is emphasized. Overall, the results are in line with the notion that premotor functions are employed in both action control and action observation.}, language = {en} } @article{ReibisKuehlSalzwedeletal.2017, author = {Reibis, Rona Katharina and K{\"u}hl, Uwe and Salzwedel, Annett and Rasawieh, Mortesa and Eichler, Sarah and Wegscheider, Karl and V{\"o}ller, Heinz}, title = {Return to work in heart failure patients with suspected viral myocarditis}, series = {SAGE Open Medicine}, volume = {5}, journal = {SAGE Open Medicine}, publisher = {Sage}, address = {Thousand Oaks, Calif.}, issn = {2050-3121}, doi = {10.1177/2050312117744978}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Background: Endomyocardial biopsy is considered as the gold standard in patients with suspected myocarditis. We aimed to evaluate the impact of bioptic findings on prediction of successful return to work. Methods: In 1153 patients (48.9 ± 12.4 years, 66.2\% male), who were hospitalized due to symptoms of left heart failure between 2005 and 2012, an endomyocardial biopsy was performed. Routine clinical and laboratory data, sociodemographic parameters, and noninvasive and invasive cardiac variables including endomyocardial biopsy were registered. Data were linked with return to work data from the German statutory pension insurance program and analyzed by Cox regression. Results: A total of 220 patients had a complete data set of hospital and insurance information. Three quarters of patients were virus-positive (54.2\% parvovirus B19, other or mixed infection 16.7\%). Mean invasive left ventricular ejection fraction was 47.1\% ± 18.6\% (left ventricular ejection fraction <45\% in 46.3\%). Return to work was achieved after a mean interval of 168.8 ± 347.7 days in 220 patients (after 6, 12, and 24 months in 61.3\%, 72.2\%, and 76.4\%). In multivariate regression analysis, only age (per 10 years, hazard ratio, 1.27; 95\% confidence interval, 1.10-1.46; p = 0.001) and left ventricular ejection fraction (per 5\% increase, hazard ratio, 1.07; 95\% confidence interval, 1.03-1.12; p = 0.002) were associated with increased, elevated work intensity (heavy vs light, congestive heart failure, 0.58; 95\% confidence interval, 0.34-0.99; p < 0.049) with decreased probability of return to work. None of the endomyocardial biopsy-derived parameters was significantly associated with return to work in the total group as well as in the subgroup of patients with biopsy-proven myocarditis. Conclusion: Added to established predictors, bioptic data demonstrated no additional impact for return to work probability. Thus, socio-medical evaluation of patients with suspected myocarditis furthermore remains an individually oriented process based primarily on clinical and functional parameters.}, language = {en} } @article{RyngajlloChildsLohseetal.2011, author = {Ryngajllo, Malgorzata and Childs, Liam H. and Lohse, Marc and Giorgi, Federico M. and Lude, Anja and Selbig, Joachim and Usadel, Bj{\"o}rn}, title = {SLocX predicting subcellular localization of Arabidopsis proteins leveraging gene expression data}, series = {Frontiers in plant science}, volume = {2}, journal = {Frontiers in plant science}, publisher = {Frontiers Research Foundation}, address = {Lausanne}, issn = {1664-462X}, doi = {10.3389/fpls.2011.00043}, pages = {19}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Despite the growing volume of experimentally validated knowledge about the subcellular localization of plant proteins, a well performing in silico prediction tool is still a necessity. Existing tools, which employ information derived from protein sequence alone, offer limited accuracy and/or rely on full sequence availability. We explored whether gene expression profiling data can be harnessed to enhance prediction performance. To achieve this, we trained several support vector machines to predict the subcellular localization of Arabidopsis thaliana proteins using sequence derived information, expression behavior, or a combination of these data and compared their predictive performance through a cross-validation test. We show that gene expression carries information about the subcellular localization not available in sequence information, yielding dramatic benefits for plastid localization prediction, and some notable improvements for other compartments such as the mito-chondrion, the Golgi, and the plasma membrane. Based on these results, we constructed a novel subcellular localization prediction engine, SLocX, combining gene expression profiling data with protein sequence-based information. We then validated the results of this engine using an independent test set of annotated proteins and a transient expression of GFP fusion proteins. Here, we present the prediction framework and a website of predicted localizations for Arabidopsis. The relatively good accuracy of our prediction engine, even in cases where only partial protein sequence is available (e.g., in sequences lacking the N-terminal region), offers a promising opportunity for similar application to non-sequenced or poorly annotated plant species. Although the prediction scope of our method is currently limited by the availability of expression information on the ATH1 array, we believe that the advances in measuring gene expression technology will make our method applicable for all Arabidopsis proteins.}, language = {en} } @article{StoneVerissimoSchadetal.2021, author = {Stone, Kate and Verissimo, Joao and Schad, Daniel J. and Oltrogge, Elise and Vasishth, Shravan and Lago, Sol}, title = {The interaction of grammatically distinct agreement dependencies in predictive processing}, series = {Language, cognition and neuroscience}, volume = {36}, journal = {Language, cognition and neuroscience}, number = {9}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {2327-3798}, doi = {10.1080/23273798.2021.1921816}, pages = {1159 -- 1179}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Previous research has found that comprehenders sometimes predict information that is grammatically unlicensed by sentence constraints. An open question is why such grammatically unlicensed predictions occur. We examined the possibility that unlicensed predictions arise in situations of information conflict, for instance when comprehenders try to predict upcoming words while simultaneously building dependencies with previously encountered elements in memory. German possessive pronouns are a good testing ground for this hypothesis because they encode two grammatically distinct agreement dependencies: a retrospective one between the possessive and its previously mentioned referent, and a prospective one between the possessive and its following nominal head. In two visual world eye-tracking experiments, we estimated the onset of predictive effects in participants' fixations. The results showed that the retrospective dependency affected resolution of the prospective dependency by shifting the onset of predictive effects. We attribute this effect to an interaction between predictive and memory retrieval processes.}, language = {en} } @article{SchoknechtRoehmSchlesewskyetal.2022, author = {Schoknecht, Pia and Roehm, Dietmar and Schlesewsky, Matthias and Bornkessel-Schlesewsky, Ina}, title = {The interaction of predictive processing and similarity-based retrieval interference}, series = {Language, cognition and neuroscience}, volume = {37}, journal = {Language, cognition and neuroscience}, number = {7}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {2327-3798}, doi = {10.1080/23273798.2022.2026421}, pages = {883 -- 901}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Language processing requires memory retrieval to integrate current input with previous context and making predictions about upcoming input. We propose that prediction and retrieval are two sides of the same coin, i.e. functionally the same, as they both activate memory representations. Under this assumption, memory retrieval and prediction should interact: Retrieval interference can only occur at a word that triggers retrieval and a fully predicted word would not do that. The present study investigated the proposed interaction with event-related potentials (ERPs) during the processing of sentence pairs in German. Predictability was measured via cloze probability. Memory retrieval was manipulated via the position of a distractor inducing proactive or retroactive similarity-based interference. Linear mixed model analyses provided evidence for the hypothesised interaction in a broadly distributed negativity, which we discuss in relation to the interference ERP literature. Our finding supports the proposal that memory retrieval and prediction are functionally the same.}, language = {en} } @article{HartmannEhlertFritz2019, author = {Hartmann, Julia and Ehlert, Antje and Fritz, Annemarie}, title = {Welche Rolle spielen sprachliche Parameter f{\"u}r die Entwicklung integrierter verbal-numerischer Konzepte im vierten Lebensjahr?}, series = {Fr{\"u}he Bildung : interdisziplin{\"a}re Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Forschung, Ausbildung und Praxis}, volume = {8}, journal = {Fr{\"u}he Bildung : interdisziplin{\"a}re Zeitschrift f{\"u}r Forschung, Ausbildung und Praxis}, number = {1}, publisher = {Hogrefe}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {2191-9186}, doi = {10.1026/2191-9186/a000410}, pages = {44 -- 52}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Der Beitrag untersucht, ob und zu welchen Anteilen fr{\"u}he sprachliche Kompetenzen numerische Kompetenzen vorhersagen. An 72 dreij{\"a}hrigen Kindern wurden numerische, verbal produktive und rezeptive sowie grammatische Leistungen zwei Mal im Abstand von drei Monaten erhoben. Mithilfe von Strukturgleichungsmodellen kann gezeigt werden, dass sprachliche und numerische Leistungen in diesem Alter noch wenig distinkt sind. F{\"u}r die numerischen Kompetenzen findet sich bereits in diesem Alter eine hohe interindividuelle Entwicklungsstabilit{\"a}t. Ein bedeutsamer Einfluss sprachlicher Kompetenz auf den Zuwachs mathematischer Kompetenz im vierten Lebensjahr konnte nicht nachgewiesen werden. Wir diskutieren die Ergebnisse vor dem Hintergrund der aktuellen Thesen zum Zusammenhang von Sprache und Numerik in der Entwicklung.}, language = {de} }