@phdthesis{Waha2012,
  author    = {Waha, Katharina},
  title     = {Climate change impacts on agricultural vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-64717},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Agriculture is one of the most important human activities providing food and more agricultural goods for seven billion people around the world and is of special importance in sub-Saharan Africa. The majority of people depends on the agricultural sector for their livelihoods and will suffer from negative climate change impacts on agriculture until the middle and end of the 21st century, even more if weak governments, economic crises or violent conflicts endanger the countries' food security. The impact of temperature increases and changing precipitation patterns on agricultural vegetation motivated this thesis in the first place. Analyzing the potentials of reducing negative climate change impacts by adapting crop management to changing climate is a second objective of the thesis. As a precondition for simulating climate change impacts on agricultural crops with a global crop model first the timing of sowing in the tropics was improved and validated as this is an important factor determining the length and timing of the crops´ development phases, the occurrence of water stress and final crop yield. Crop yields are projected to decline in most regions which is evident from the results of this thesis, but the uncertainties that exist in climate projections and in the efficiency of adaptation options because of political, economical or institutional obstacles have to be considered. The effect of temperature increases and changing precipitation patterns on crop yields can be analyzed separately and varies in space across the continent. Southern Africa is clearly the region most susceptible to climate change, especially to precipitation changes. The Sahel north of 13° N and parts of Eastern Africa with short growing seasons below 120 days and limited wet season precipitation of less than 500 mm are also vulnerable to precipitation changes while in most other part of East and Central Africa, in contrast, the effect of temperature increase on crops overbalances the precipitation effect and is most pronounced in a band stretching from Angola to Ethiopia in the 2060s. The results of this thesis confirm the findings from previous studies on the magnitude of climate change impact on crops in sub-Saharan Africa but beyond that helps to understand the drivers of these changes and the potential of certain management strategies for adaptation in more detail. Crop yield changes depend on the initial growing conditions, on the magnitude of climate change, and on the crop, cropping system and adaptive capacity of African farmers which is only now evident from this comprehensive study for sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore this study improves the representation of tropical cropping systems in a global crop model and considers the major food crops cultivated in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change impacts throughout the continent.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Kristen2009,
  author    = {Kristen, Iris},
  title     = {Investigations on rainfall variability during the late Quaternary based on geochemical analyses of lake sediments from tropical and subtropical southern Africa},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-32547},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2009},
  abstract  = {This thesis presents investigations on sediments from two African lakes which have been recording changes in their surrounding environmental and climate conditions since more than 200,000 years. Focus of this work is the time of the last Glacial and the Holocene (the last ~100,000 years before present [in the following 100 kyr BP]). One important precondition for this kind of research is a good understanding of the present ecosystems in and around the lakes and of the sediment formation under modern climate conditions. Both studies therefore include investigations on the modern environment (including organisms, soils, rocks, lake water and sediments). A 90 m long sediment sequence was investigated from Lake Tswaing (north-eastern South Africa) using geochemical analyses. These investigations document alternating periods of high detrital input and low (especially autochthonous) organic matter content and periods of low detrital input, carbonatic or evaporitic sedimentation and high autochthonous organic matter content. These alternations are interpreted as changes between relatively humid and arid conditions, respectively. Before c. 75 kyr BP, they seem to follow changes in local insolation whereas afterwards they appear to be acyclic and are probably caused by changes in ocean circulation and/or in the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Today, these factors have main influence on precipitation in this area where rainfall occurs almost exclusively during austral summer. All modern organisms were analysed for their biomarker and bulk organic and compound-specific stable carbon isotope composition. The same investigations on sediments from the modern lake floor document the mixed input of the investigated individual organisms and reveal additional influences by methanotrophic bacteria. A comparison of modern sediment characteristics with those of sediments covering the time 14 to 2 kyr BP shows changes in the productivity of the lake and the surrounding vegetation which are best explained by changes in hydrology. More humid conditions are indicated for times older than 10 kyr BP and younger than 7.5 kyr BP, whereas arid conditions prevailed in between. These observations agree with the results from sediment composition and indications from other climate archives nearby. The second lake study deals with Lake Challa, a small, deep crater lake on the foot of Mount Kilimanjaro. In this lake form mm-scale laminated sediments which were analyses with micro-XRF scanning for changes in the element composition. By comparing these results with investigations on thin sections, results from ongoing sediment trap studies, meteorological data, and investigations on the surrounding rocks and soils, I develop a model for seasonal variability in the limnology and sedimentation of Lake Challa. The lake appears to be stratified during the warm rain seasons (October - December and March - May) during which detrital material is delivered to the lake and carbonates precipitate. On the lake floor forms a dark lamina with high contents of Fe and Ti and high Ca/Al and low Mn/Fe ratios. Diatoms bloom during the cool and windy season (June - September) when mixing down to c. 60 m depth provides easily bio-available nutrients. Contemporaneously, Fe and Mn-oxides are precipitating which cause high Mn/Fe ratios in the light diatom-rich laminae of the sediments. Trends in the Mn/Fe ratio of the sediments are interpreted to reflect changes in the intensity or duration of seasonal mixing in Lake Challa. This interpretation is supported by parallel changes in the organic matter and biogenic silica content observed in the 22 m long profile recovered from Lake Challa. This covers the time of the last 25 kyr BP. It documents a transition around 16 kyr BP from relatively well-mixed conditions with high detrital input during glacial times to stronger stratified conditions which are probably related to increasing lake levels in Challa and generally more humid conditions in East Africa. Intensified mixing is recorded for the time of the Younger Dryas and the period between 11.4 and 10.7 kyr BP. For these periods, reduced intensity of the SW monsoon and intensified NE monsoon are reported from archives of the Indian-Asian Monsoon region, arguing for the latter as a probable source for wind mixing in Lake Challa. This connection is probably also responsible for contemporaneous events in the Mn/Fe ratios of the Lake Challa sediments and in other records of northern hemisphere monsoon intensity during the Holocene and underlines the close interaction of global low latitude atmospheric circulation.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Bergner2003,
  author    = {Bergner, Andreas G. N.},
  title     = {Lake-level fluctuations and Late Quaternary climate change in the Central Kenya Rift},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-0001428},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2003},
  abstract  = {Diese Arbeit besch{\"a}ftigt sich mit der Rekonstruktion von Klima in historischen Zeiten im tropischen Ostafrika. Nach einer {\"U}bersicht {\"u}ber die heutigen klimatischen Bedingungen der Tropen und den Besonderheiten des ostafrikanischen Klimas, werden die M{\"o}glichkeiten der Klimarekonstruktion anhand von Seesedimenten diskutiert. Es zeigt sich, dass die hoch gelegenen Seen des Zentralen Keniarifts, als Teil des Ostafrikanischen Grabensystems, besonders geeignete Klimaarchive darstellen, da sie sensibel auf klimatische Ver{\"a}nderungen reagieren. Ver{\"a}nderungen der Seechemie, wie sie in den Sedimenten aufgezeichnet werden, eignen sich um die nat{\"u}rlichen Schwankungen in der Quart{\"a}ren Klimageschichte Ostafrikas nachzuzeichnen. Basierend auf der guten 40Ar/39Ar- und 14C-Datierbarkeit der Seesedimente wird eine Chronologie der pal{\"a}o{\"o}kologischen Bedingungen anhand von Diatomeenvergesellschaftungen restauriert. Dabei zeigen sich f{\"u}r die Seen Nakuru, Elmenteita und Naivasha kurzfristige Transgression/ Regressions-Zyklen im Intervall von ca. 11.000 Jahren w{\"a}hrend des letzten (ca. 12.000 bis 6.000 J.v.H.) und vorletzten Interglazials (ca. 140.000 bis 60.000 J.v.H.). Zus{\"a}tzlich kann ein allgemeiner, langfristiger Trend der Seeentwicklung von großen Frischwasserseen hin zu st{\"a}rker salinen Gew{\"a}ssern innerhalb der letzen 1 Mio. Jahre festgestellt werden. Mittels Transferfunktionen und einem hydro-klimatischen Modellansatz k{\"o}nnen die restaurierten limnologischen Bedingungen als klimatische Schwankungen des Einzugsgebietes interpretiert werden. Wenngleich auch der zus{\"a}tzliche Einfluss von tektonischen Ver{\"a}nderungen auf das Seeeinzugsgebiet und das Gewicht ver{\"a}nderter Grundwasserstr{\"o}me abgewogen werden, zeigt sich, dass allein geringf{\"u}gig erh{\"o}hte Niederschlagswerte von ca. 30±10 \% zu dramatischen Seespiegelanstiegen im Zentralen Keniarift f{\"u}hren. Aufgrund der etablierten hydrrologisch-klimatischen Wechselwirkungen werden R{\"u}ckschl{\"u}sse auf die nat{\"u}rliche Variabilit{\"a}t des ostafrikanischen Klimas gezogen. Zudem wird die Sensitivit{\"a}t der Keniarift-Seen in Bezug auf die St{\"a}rke der {\"a}quatorialen Insolation und hinsichtilch variabler Oberfl{\"a}chenwassertemperaturen des Indischen Ozeans bewertet.},
  language  = {en}
}