@article{ZoellerHainzlTilmannetal.2020,
  author    = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Hainzl, Sebastian and Tilmann, Frederik and Woith, Heiko and Dahm, Torsten},
  title     = {Comment on: Wikelski, Martin; M{\"u}ller, Uschi; Scocco, Paola; Catorci, Andrea; Desinov, Lev V.; Belyaev, Mikhail Y.; Keim, Daniel A.; Pohlmeier, Winfried; Fechteler, Gerhard; Mai, Martin P. : Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring. - Ethology. - 126 (2020), 9. - S. 931 - 941. -ISSN 0179-1613. - eISSN 1439-0310. - doi 10.1111/eth.13078},
  series = {Ethology},
  volume    = {127},
  journal   = {Ethology},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0179-1613},
  doi       = {10.1111/eth.13105},
  pages     = {302 -- 306},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Based on an analysis of continuous monitoring of farm animal behavior in the region of the 2016 M6.6 Norcia earthquake in Italy, Wikelski et al., 2020; (Seismol Res Lett, 89, 2020, 1238) conclude that animal activity can be anticipated with subsequent seismic activity and that this finding might help to design a "short-term earthquake forecasting method." We show that this result is based on an incomplete analysis and misleading interpretations. Applying state-of-the-art methods of statistics, we demonstrate that the proposed anticipatory patterns cannot be distinguished from random patterns, and consequently, the observed anomalies in animal activity do not have any forecasting power.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{ZoellerBenZion2014,
  author    = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Ben-Zion, Yehuda},
  title     = {Large earthquake hazard of the San Jacinto fault zone, CA, from long record of simulated seismicity assimilating the available instrumental and paleoseismic data},
  series = {Pure and applied geophysics},
  volume    = {171},
  journal   = {Pure and applied geophysics},
  number    = {11},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {0033-4553},
  doi       = {10.1007/s00024-014-0783-1},
  pages     = {2955 -- 2965},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {We investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on different sections of the SJFZ is found to be close to random. The hazard associated with m a parts per thousand yen 7 events on the SJFZ increases significantly if the long record of simulated seismicity is taken into account. The model simulations indicate that the recent increased number of observed intermediate SJFZ earthquakes is a robust statistical feature heralding the occurrence of m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquakes. The hypocenters of the m a parts per thousand yen 5 events in the simulation results move progressively towards the hypocenter of the upcoming m a parts per thousand yen 7 earthquake.},
  language  = {en}
}