@misc{WestphalLazaridesVock2021,
  author    = {Westphal, Andrea and Lazarides, Rebecca and Vock, Miriam},
  title     = {Are some students graded more appropriately than others?},
  series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {3},
  issn      = {1866-8364},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-56333},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-563330},
  pages     = {19},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Background Building on the Realistic Accuracy Model, this paper explores whether it is easier for teachers to assess the achievement of some students than others. Accordingly, we suggest that certain individual characteristics of students, such as extraversion, academic self-efficacy, and conscientiousness, may guide teachers' evaluations of student achievement, resulting in more appropriate judgements and a stronger alignment of assigned grades with students' actual achievement level (as measured using standardized tests). Aims We examine whether extraversion, academic self-efficacy, and conscientiousness moderate the relations between teacher-assigned grades and students' standardized test scores in mathematics. Sample This study uses a representative sample of N = 5,919 seventh-grade students in Germany (48.8\% girls; mean age: M = 12.5, SD = 0.62) who participated in a national, large-scale assessment focusing on students' academic development. Methods We specified structural equation models to examine the inter-relations of teacher-assigned grades with students' standardized test scores in mathematics, Big Five personality traits, and academic self-efficacy, while controlling for students' socioeconomic status, gender, and age. Results The correlation between teacher-assigned grades and standardized test scores in mathematics was r = .40. Teacher-assigned grades more closely related to standardized test scores when students reported higher levels of conscientiousness (beta = .05, p = .002). Students' extraversion and academic self-efficacy did not moderate the relationship between teacher-assigned grades and standardized test scores. Conclusions Our findings indicate that students' conscientiousness is a personality trait that seems to be important when it comes to how closely mathematics teachers align their grades to standardized test scores.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{MaierHartungdeWiljesetal.2020,
  author    = {Maier, Corinna and Hartung, Niklas and de Wiljes, Jana and Kloft, Charlotte and Huisinga, Wilhelm},
  title     = {Bayesian Data Assimilation to Support Informed Decision Making in Individualized Chemotherapy},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {827},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-44550},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-445500},
  pages     = {14},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {An essential component of therapeutic drug/biomarker monitoring (TDM) is to combine patient data with prior knowledge for model-based predictions of therapy outcomes. Current Bayesian forecasting tools typically rely only on the most probable model parameters (maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate). This MAP-based approach, however, does neither necessarily predict the most probable outcome nor does it quantify the risks of treatment inefficacy or toxicity. Bayesian data assimilation (DA) methods overcome these limitations by providing a comprehensive uncertainty quantification. We compare DA methods with MAP-based approaches and show how probabilistic statements about key markers related to chemotherapy-induced neutropenia can be leveraged for more informative decision support in individualized chemotherapy. Sequential Bayesian DA proved to be most computationally efficient for handling interoccasion variability and integrating TDM data. For new digital monitoring devices enabling more frequent data collection, these features will be of critical importance to improve patient care decisions in various therapeutic areas.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Spooner2021,
  author    = {Spooner, Cameron},
  title     = {How does lithospheric configuration relate to deformation in the Alpine region?},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-51644},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-516442},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xiv, 138},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Forming as a result of the collision between the Adriatic and European plates, the Alpine orogen exhibits significant lithospheric heterogeneity due to the long history of interplay between these plates, other continental and oceanic blocks in the region, and inherited features from preceeding orogenies. This implies that the thermal and rheological configuration of the lithosphere also varies significantly throughout the region. Lithology and temperature/pressure conditions exert a first order control on rock strength, principally via thermally activated creep deformation and on the distribution at depth of the brittle-ductile transition zone, which can be regarded as the lower bound to the seismogenic zone. Therefore, they influence the spatial distribution of seismicity within a lithospheric plate. In light of this, accurately constrained geophysical models of the heterogeneous Alpine lithospheric configuration, are crucial in describing regional deformation patterns. However, despite the amount of research focussing on the area, different hypotheses still exist regarding the present-day lithospheric state and how it might relate to the present-day seismicity distribution. This dissertaion seeks to constrain the Alpine lithospheric configuration through a fully 3D integrated modelling workflow, that utilises multiple geophysical techniques and integrates from all available data sources. The aim is therefore to shed light on how lithospheric heterogeneity may play a role in influencing the heterogeneous patterns of seismicity distribution observed within the region. This was accomplished through the generation of: (i) 3D seismically constrained, structural and density models of the lithosphere, that were adjusted to match the observed gravity field; (ii) 3D models of the lithospheric steady state thermal field, that were adjusted to match observed wellbore temperatures; and (iii) 3D rheological models of long term lithospheric strength, with the results of each step used as input for the following steps. Results indicate that the highest strength within the crust (~ 1 GPa) and upper mantle (> 2 GPa), are shown to occur at temperatures characteristic for specific phase transitions (more felsic crust: 200 - 400 °C; more mafic crust and upper lithospheric mantle: ~600 °C) with almost all seismicity occurring in these regions. However, inherited lithospheric heterogeneity was found to significantly influence this, with seismicity in the thinner and more mafic Adriatic crust (~22.5 km, 2800 kg m-3, 1.30E-06 W m-3) occuring to higher temperatures (~600 °C) than in the thicker and more felsic European crust (~27.5 km, 2750 kg m-3, 1.3-2.6E-06 W m-3, ~450 °C). Correlation between seismicity in the orogen forelands and lithospheric strength, also show different trends, reflecting their different tectonic settings. As such, events in the plate boundary setting of the southern foreland correlate with the integrated lithospheric strength, occurring mainly in the weaker lithosphere surrounding the strong Adriatic indenter. Events in the intraplate setting of the northern foreland, instead correlate with crustal strength, mainly occurring in the weaker and warmer crust beneath the Upper Rhine Graben. Therefore, not only do the findings presented in this work represent a state of the art understanding of the lithospheric configuration beneath the Alps and their forelands, but also a significant improvement on the features known to significantly influence the occurrence of seismicity within the region. This highlights the importance of considering lithospheric state in regards to explaining observed patterns of deformation.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{SiegShinkoVogeletal.2019,
  author    = {Sieg, Tobias and Shinko, Thomas and Vogel, Kristin and Mechler, Reinhard and Merz, Bruno and Kreibich, Heidi},
  title     = {Integrated assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts including uncertainty quantification},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {708},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42911},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-429119},
  pages     = {21},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Understanding and quantifying total economic impacts of flood events is essential for flood risk management and adaptation planning. Yet, detailed estimations of joint direct and indirect flood-induced economic impacts are rare. In this study an innovative modeling procedure for the joint assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts is introduced. The procedure is applied to 19 economic sectors in eight federal states of Germany after the flood events in 2013. The assessment of the direct economic impacts is object-based and considers uncertainties associated with the hazard, the exposed objects and their vulnerability. The direct economic impacts are then coupled to a supply-side Input-Output-Model to estimate the indirect economic impacts. The procedure provides distributions of direct and indirect economic impacts which capture the associated uncertainties. The distributions of the direct economic impacts in the federal states are plausible when compared to reported values. The ratio between indirect and direct economic impacts shows that the sectors Manufacturing, Financial and Insurance activities suffered the most from indirect economic impacts. These ratios also indicate that indirect economic impacts can be almost as high as direct economic impacts. They differ strongly between the economic sectors indicating that the application of a single factor as a proxy for the indirect impacts of all economic sectors is not appropriate.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{DelgadoVossBuergeretal.2018,
  author    = {Delgado, Jos{\´e} Miguel Martins and Voss, Sebastian and B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Vormoor, Klaus Josef and Murawski, Aline and Rodrigues Pereira, Jos{\´e} Marcelo and Martins, Eduardo and Vasconcelos J{\´u}nior, Francisco and Francke, Till},
  title     = {Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeastern Brazil},
  series = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
  journal   = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418461},
  pages     = {16},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {A set of seasonal drought forecast models was assessed and verified for the Jaguaribe River in semiarid northeastern Brazil. Meteorological seasonal forecasts were provided by the operational forecasting system used at FUNCEME (Cear{\´a}'s research foundation for meteorology)and by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Three downscaling approaches (empirical quantile mapping, extended downscaling and weather pattern classification) were tested and combined with the models in hindcast mode for the period 1981 to 2014. The forecast issue time was January and the forecast period was January to June. Hydrological drought indices were obtained by fitting a multivariate linear regression to observations. In short, it was possible to obtain forecasts for (a) monthly precipitation,(b) meteorological drought indices, and (c) hydrological drought indices. The skill of the forecasting systems was evaluated with regard to root mean square error (RMSE), the Brier skill score (BSS) and the relative operating characteristic skill score (ROCSS). The tested forecasting products showed similar performance in the analyzed metrics. Forecasts of monthly precipitation had little or no skill considering RMSE and mostly no skill with BSS. A similar picture was seen when forecasting meteorological drought indices: low skill regarding RMSE and BSS and significant skill when discriminating hit rate and false alarm rate given by the ROCSS (forecasting drought events of, e.g., SPEI1 showed a ROCSS of around 0.5). Regarding the temporal variation of the forecast skill of the meteorological indices, it was greatest for April, when compared to the remaining months of the rainy season, while the skill of reservoir volume forecasts decreased with lead time. This work showed that a multi-model ensemble can forecast drought events of timescales relevant to water managers in northeastern Brazil with skill. But no or little skill could be found in the forecasts of monthly precipitation or drought indices of lower scales, like SPI1. Both this work and those here revisited showed that major steps forward are needed in forecasting the rainy season in northeastern Brazil.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Vossenkuhl2015,
  author    = {Vossenkuhl, Birgit},
  title     = {Transmission of MRSA along the meat supply chain},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-85918},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {141},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Methicillin-resistente Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) z{\"a}hlen zu den bedeutendsten antibiotikaresistenten Pathogenen, die vor allem in Krankenh{\"a}usern aber auch außerhalb von Einrichtungen des Gesundheitswesens weit verbreitet sind. Seit einigen Jahren ist eine neue Generation von MRSA auf dem Vormarsch, die vor allem Nutztierbest{\"a}nde als neue Nische besiedelt. Diese sogenannten Nutztier-assoziierten MRSA wurden wiederholt bei wirtschaftlich bedeutenden Nutztieren sowie daraus gewonnenem Fleisch nachgewiesen. Im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde ein methodischer Ansatz verfolgt, um die Hypothese einer m{\"o}glichen {\"U}bertragung von Nutztier-assoziierten MRSA entlang der Lebensmittelkette vom Tier auf dessen Fleisch zu best{\"a}tigen. Angepasst an die Unterschiede in den verf{\"u}gbaren Daten wurden daf{\"u}r zwei neue Konzepte erstellt. Zur Analyse der {\"U}bertragung von MRSA entlang der Schlachtkette wurde ein mathematisches Modell des Schweineschlachtprozesses entwickelt, welches dazu geeignet ist, den Verlauf der MRSA-Pr{\"a}valenz entlang der Schlachtkette zu quantifizieren sowie kritische Prozessschritte f{\"u}r eine MRSA-{\"U}bertragung zu identifizieren. Anhand von Pr{\"a}valenzdaten ist es dem Modell m{\"o}glich, die durchschnittlichen MRSA-Eliminations- und Kontaminationsraten jedes einzelnen Prozessschrittes zu sch{\"a}tzen, die anschließend in eine Monte-Carlo-Simulation einfließen. Im Ergebnis konnte gezeigt werden, dass es generell m{\"o}glich ist, die MRSA Pr{\"a}valenz im Laufe des Schlachtprozesses auf ein niedriges finales Niveau zwischen 0,15 bis 1,15\% zu reduzieren. Vor allem das Br{\"u}hen und Abfl{\"a}mmen der Schlachtk{\"o}rper wurden als kritische Prozesse im Hinblick auf eine MRSA-Dekontamination identifiziert. In Deutschland werden regelm{\"a}ßig MRSA-Pr{\"a}valenz und Typisierungsdaten auf allen Stufen der Lebensmittelkette verschiedener Nutztiere erfasst. Um die MRSA-Daten dieser Querschnittstudie hinsichtlich einer m{\"o}glichen {\"U}bertragung entlang der Kette zu analysieren, wurde ein neuer statistischer Ansatz entwickelt. Hierf{\"u}r wurde eine Chi-Quadrat-Statistik mit der Berechnung des Czekanowski-{\"A}hnlichkeitsindex kombiniert, um Unterschiede in der Verteilung stammspezifischer Eigenschaften zwischen MRSA aus dem Stall, von Karkassen nach der Schlachtung und aus Fleisch im Einzelhandel zu quantifizieren. Die Methode wurde am Beispiel der Putenfleischkette implementiert und zudem bei der Analyse der Kalbfleischkette angewendet. Die durchgehend hohen {\"A}hnlichkeitswerte zwischen den einzelnen Proben weisen auf eine m{\"o}gliche {\"U}bertragung von MRSA entlang der Lebensmittelkette hin. Die erarbeiteten Methoden sind nicht spezifisch bez{\"u}glich Prozessketten und Pathogenen. Sie bieten somit einen großen Anwendungsbereich und erweitern das Methodenspektrum zur Bewertung bakterieller {\"U}bertragungswege.},
  language  = {en}
}