@article{TrounsonBuschCollieretal.2020, author = {Trounson, Karl M. and Busch, Aglaja and Collier, Neil French and Robertson, Samuel}, title = {Effects of acute wearable resistance loading on overground running lower body kinematics}, series = {PLoS one}, volume = {15}, journal = {PLoS one}, number = {12}, publisher = {PLoS}, address = {San Francisco, California, US}, issn = {1932-6203}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0244361}, pages = {19}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Field-based sports require athletes to run sub-maximally over significant distances, often while contending with dynamic perturbations to preferred coordination patterns. The ability to adapt movement to maintain performance under such perturbations appears to be trainable through exposure to task variability, which encourages movement variability. The aim of the present study was to investigate the extent to which various wearable resistance loading magnitudes alter coordination and induce movement variability during running. To investigate this, 14 participants (three female and 11 male) performed 10 sub-maximal velocity shuttle runs with either no weight, 1\%, 3\%, or 5\% of body weight attached to the lower limbs. Sagittal plane lower limb joint kinematics from one complete stride cycle in each run were assessed using functional data analysis techniques, both across the participant group and within-individuals. At the group-level, decreases in ankle plantarflexion following toe-off were evident in the 3\% and 5\% conditions, while increased knee flexion occurred during weight acceptance in the 5\% condition compared with unloaded running. At the individual-level, between-run joint angle profiles varied, with six participants exhibiting increased joint angle variability in one or more loading conditions compared with unloaded running. Loading of 5\% decreased between-run ankle joint variability among two individuals, likely in accordance with the need to manage increased system load or the novelty of the task. In terms of joint coordination, the most considerable alterations to coordination occurred in the 5\% loading condition at the hip-knee joint pair, however, only a minority of participants exhibited this tendency. Coaches should prescribe wearable resistance individually to perturb preferred coordination patterns and encourage movement variability without loading to the extent that movement options become limited.}, language = {en} } @article{AuhagenUth2022, author = {Auhagen, Christopher Patrick and Uth, Melanie}, title = {Variation of relative complementizers in Yucatecan Spanish}, series = {Languages}, volume = {7}, journal = {Languages}, number = {4}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2226-471X}, doi = {10.3390/languages7040279}, pages = {16}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The starting point of this article is the occurrence of determiner-less and bare que relative complementizers like (en) que, '(in) that', instead of (en) el que, '(in) which', in Yucatecan Spanish (southeast Mexico). While reference grammars treat complementizers with a determiner as the standard option, previous diachronic research has shown that determiner-less complementizers actually predate relative complementizers with a determiner. Additionally, Yucatecan Spanish has been in long-standing contact with Yucatec Maya. Relative complementation in Yucatec Maya differs from that in Spanish (at least) in that the non-complex complementizer tu'ux ('where') is generally the only option for locative complementation. The paper explores monolingual and bilingual data from Yucatecan Spanish to discuss the question whether the determiner-less and bare que relative complementizers in our data constitute a historic remnant or a dialectal recast, possibly (but not necessarily) due to language contact. Although our pilot study may not answer these far-reaching questions, it does reveal two separate, but intertwined developments: (i) a generally increased rate of bare que relative complementation, across both monolingual speakers of Spanish and Spanish Maya bilinguals, compared to other Spanish varieties, and (ii) a preference for donde at the cost of other locative complementizer constructions in the bilingual group. Our analysis thus reveals intriguing differences between the complementizer preferences of monolingual and bilingual speakers, suggesting that different variational patterns caused by different (socio-)linguistic factors can co-develop in parallel in one and the [same] region.}, language = {en} } @article{RottlerFranckeBuergeretal.2020, author = {Rottler, Erwin and Francke, Till and B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Bronstert, Axel}, title = {Long-term changes in central European river discharge for 1869-2016}, series = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {24}, journal = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences}, number = {4}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1027-5606}, doi = {10.5194/hess-24-1721-2020}, pages = {1721 -- 1740}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Recent climatic changes have the potential to severely alter river runoff, particularly in snow-dominated river basins. Effects of changing snow covers superimpose with changes in precipitation and anthropogenic modifications of the watershed and river network. In the attempt to identify and disentangle long-term effects of different mechanisms, we employ a set of analytical tools to extract long-term changes in river runoff at high resolution. We combine quantile sampling with moving average trend statistics and empirical mode decomposition and apply these tools to discharge data recorded along rivers with nival, pluvial and mixed flow regimes as well as temperature and precipitation data covering the time frame 1869-2016. With a focus on central Europe, we analyse the long-term impact of snow cover and precipitation changes along with their interaction with reservoir constructions. Our results show that runoff seasonality of snow-dominated rivers decreases. Runoff increases in winter and spring, while discharge decreases in summer and at the beginning of autumn. We attribute this redistribution of annual flow mainly to reservoir constructions in the Alpine ridge. During the course of the last century, large fractions of the Alpine rivers were dammed to produce hydropower. In recent decades, runoff changes induced by reservoir constructions seem to overlap with changes in snow cover. We suggest that Alpine signals propagate downstream and affect runoff far outside the Alpine area in river segments with mixed flow regimes. Furthermore, our results hint at more (intense) rain-fall in recent decades. Detected increases in high discharge can be traced back to corresponding changes in precipitation.}, language = {en} } @article{HuttenlauchBeerHanneKlothetal.2021, author = {Huttenlauch, Clara and Beer, Carola de and Hanne-Kloth, Sandra and Wartenburger, Isabell}, title = {Production of prosodic cues in coordinate name sequences addressing varying interlocutors}, series = {Laboratory phonology}, volume = {12}, journal = {Laboratory phonology}, number = {1}, publisher = {Ubiquity Press}, address = {London}, issn = {1868-6346}, doi = {10.5334/labphon.221}, pages = {31}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Prosodic boundaries can be used to disambiguate the syntactic structure of coordinated name sequences (coordinates). To answer the question whether disambiguating prosody is produced in a situationally dependent or independent manner and to contribute to our understanding of the nature of the prosody-syntax link, we systematically explored variability in the prosody of boundary productions of coordinates evoked by different contextual settings in a referential communication task. Our analysis focused on prosodic boundaries produced to distinguish sequences with different syntactic structures (i.e., with or without internal grouping of the constituents). In German, these prosodic boundaries are indicated by three major prosodic cues: f0-range, final lengthening, and pause. In line with the Proximity/Anti-Proximity principle of the syntax-prosody model by Kentner and Fery (2013), speakers clearly use all three cues for constituent grouping and prosodically mark groups within and at their right boundary, indicating that prosodic phrasing is not a local phenomenon. Intra-individually, we found a rather stable prosodic pattern across contexts. However, inter-individually speakers differed from each other with respect to the prosodic cue combinations that they (consistently) used to mark the boundaries. Overall, our data speak in favour of a close link between syntax and prosody and for situational independence of disambiguating prosody.}, language = {en} } @article{UygunClahsen2021, author = {Uygun, Serkan and Clahsen, Harald}, title = {Morphological processing in heritage speakers}, series = {Bilingualism : language and cognition}, volume = {24}, journal = {Bilingualism : language and cognition}, number = {3}, publisher = {Cambridge Univ. Press}, address = {Cambridge}, issn = {1366-7289}, doi = {10.1017/S1366728920000577}, pages = {415 -- 426}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Previous research has shown that heritage speakers struggle with inflectional morphology. 'Limitations of online resources' for processing a non-dominant language has been claimed as one possible reason for these difficulties. To date, however, there is very little experimental evidence on real-time language processing in heritage speakers. Here we report results from a masked priming experiment with 97 bilingual (Turkish/German) heritage speakers and a control group of 40 non-heritage speakers of Turkish examining regular and irregular forms of the Turkish aorist. We found that, for the regular aorist, heritage speakers use the same morphological decomposition mechanism ('affix stripping') as control speakers, whereas for processing irregularly inflected forms they exhibited more variability (i.e., less homogeneous performance) than the control group. Heritage speakers also demonstrated semantic priming effects. At a more general level, these results indicate that heritage speakers draw on multiple sources of information for recognizing morphologically complex words.}, language = {en} } @article{BuerkiFoschiniMadec2022, author = {B{\"u}rki-Foschini, Audrey Damaris and Madec, Sylvain}, title = {Picture-Word interference in language production studies}, series = {Journal of experimental psychology : Learning, memory, and cognition}, volume = {48}, journal = {Journal of experimental psychology : Learning, memory, and cognition}, number = {7}, publisher = {American Psychological Association}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0278-7393}, doi = {10.1037/xlm0001098}, pages = {1019 -- 1046}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The picture-word interference paradigm (participants name target pictures while ignoring distractor words) is often used to model the planning processes involved in word production. The participants' naming times are delayed in the presence of a distractor (general interference). The size of this effect depends on the relationship between the target and distractor words. Distractors of the same semantic category create more interference (semantic interference), and distractors overlapping in phonology create less interference (phonological facilitation). The present study examined the relationships between these experimental effects, processing times, and attention in order to better understand the cognitive processes underlying participants' behavior in this paradigm. Participants named pictures with a superimposed line of Xs, semantically related distractors, phonologically related distractors, or unrelated distractors. General interference, semantic interference, and phonological facilitation effects were replicated. Distributional analyses revealed that general and semantic interference effects increase with naming times, while phonological facilitation decreases. The phonological facilitation and semantic interference effects were found to depend on the synchronicity in processing times between the planning of the picture's name and the processing of the distractor word. Finally, electroencephalographic power in the alpha band before stimulus onset varied with the position of the trial in the experiment and with repetition but did not predict the size of interference/facilitation effects. Taken together, these results suggest that experimental effects in the picture-word interference paradigm depend on processing times to both the target word and distractor word and that distributional patterns could partly reflect this dependency.}, language = {en} } @article{MummCzernitzkiBentsetal.2017, author = {Mumm, Rebekka and Czernitzki, Anna-Franziska and Bents, Dominik and Musalek, Martin}, title = {Socioeconomic situation and growth in infants and juveniles}, series = {Anthropologischer Anzeiger : journal of biological and clinical anthropology ; Mitteilungsorgan der Gesellschaft f{\"u}r Anthropologie}, volume = {74}, journal = {Anthropologischer Anzeiger : journal of biological and clinical anthropology ; Mitteilungsorgan der Gesellschaft f{\"u}r Anthropologie}, publisher = {Schweizerbart}, address = {Stuttgart}, issn = {0003-5548}, doi = {10.1127/anthranz/2017/0706}, pages = {101 -- 107}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Background: Physical growth of children and adolescents depends on the interaction of genetic and environmental factors e.g. diet and living conditions. Aim: We aim to discuss the influence of socioeconomic situation, using income inequality and GDP per capita as indicators, on body height, body weight and the variability of height and weight in infants and juveniles. Material and methods: We re-analyzed data from 439 growth studies on height and weight published during the last 35 years. We added year-and country-matched GDP per capita (in current US\$) and the Gini coefficient for each study. The data were divided into two age groups: infants (age 2) and juveniles (age 7). We used Pearson correlation and principal component analysis to investigate the data. Results: Gini coefficient negatively correlated with body height and body weight in infants and juveniles. GDP per capita showed a positive correlation with height and weight in both age groups. In infants the standard deviation of height increases with increasing Gini coefficient. The opposite is true for juveniles. A correlation of weight variability and socioeconomic indicators is absent in infants. In juveniles the variability of weight increases with declining Gini coefficient and increasing logGDP per capita. Discussion: Poverty and income inequality are generally associated with poor growth in height and weight. The analysis of the within-population height and weight variations however, shows that the associations between wealth, income, and anthropometric parameters are very complex and cannot be explained by common wisdom. They point towards an independent regulation of height and weight.}, language = {en} } @article{SchmidtGertenHintzeetal.2018, author = {Schmidt, Silke Regina and Gerten, Dieter and Hintze, Thomas and Lischeid, Gunnar and Livingstone, David M. and Adrian, Rita}, title = {Temporal and spatial scales of water temperature variability as an indicator for mixing in a polymictic lake}, series = {Inland waters : journal of the International Society of Limnology}, volume = {8}, journal = {Inland waters : journal of the International Society of Limnology}, number = {1}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {2044-2041}, doi = {10.1080/20442041.2018.1429067}, pages = {82 -- 95}, year = {2018}, abstract = {We applied coarse spectral analysis to more than 2 decades of daily near-surface water temperature (WT) measurements from Muggelsee, a shallow polymictic lake in Germany, to systematically characterize patterns in WT variability from daily to yearly temporal scales. Comparison of WT with local air temperature indicates that the WT variability patterns are likely attributable to both meteorological forcing and internal lake dynamics. We identified seasonal patterns of WT variability and showed that WT variability increases with increasing Schmidt stability, decreasing Lake number and decreasing ice cover duration, and is higher near the shore than in open water. We introduced the slope of WT spectra as an indicator for the degree of lake mixing to help explain the identified temporal and spatial scales of WT variability. The explanatory power of this indicator in other lakes with different mixing regimes remains to be established.}, language = {en} } @article{ZimmermannStoofLeichsenringKruseetal.2020, author = {Zimmermann, Heike Hildegard and Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie and Kruse, Stefan and M{\"u}ller, Juliane and Stein, Ruediger and Tiedemann, Ralf and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Changes in the composition of marine and sea-ice diatoms derived from sedimentary ancient DNA of the eastern Fram Strait over the past 30 000 years}, series = {Ocean Science}, volume = {16}, journal = {Ocean Science}, number = {5}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Tokyo}, pages = {16}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The Fram Strait is an area with a relatively low and irregular distribution of diatom microfossils in surface sediments, and thus microfossil records are scarce, rarely exceed the Holocene, and contain sparse information about past richness and taxonomic composition. These attributes make the Fram Strait an ideal study site to test the utility of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding. Amplifying a short, partial rbcL marker from samples of sediment core MSM05/5-712-2 resulted in 95.7 \% of our sequences being assigned to diatoms across 18 different families, with 38.6 \% of them being resolved to species and 25.8 \% to genus level. Independent replicates show a high similarity of PCR products, especially in the oldest samples. Diatom sedaDNA richness is highest in the Late Weichselian and lowest in Mid- and Late Holocene samples. Taxonomic composition is dominated by cold-water and sea-ice-associated diatoms and suggests several reorganisations - after the Last Glacial Maximum, after the Younger Dryas, and after the Early and after the Mid-Holocene. Different sequences assigned to, amongst others, Chaetoceros socialis indicate the detectability of intra-specific diversity using sedaDNA. We detect no clear pattern between our diatom sedaDNA record and the previously published IP25 record of this core, although proportions of pennate diatoms increase with higher IP25 concentrations and proportions of Nitzschia cf. frigida exceeding 2 \% of the assemblage point towards past sea-ice presence.}, language = {en} } @article{EiteljoergeAdamElsneretal.2019, author = {Eiteljoerge, Sarah Fe Vivian and Adam, Maurits and Elsner, Birgit and Mani, Nivedita}, title = {Consistency of co-occurring actions influences young children's word learning learning}, series = {Royal Society Open Science}, volume = {6}, journal = {Royal Society Open Science}, number = {8}, publisher = {Royal Society}, address = {London}, issn = {2054-5703}, doi = {10.1098/rsos.190097}, pages = {17}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Communication with young children is often multimodal in nature, involving, for example, language and actions. The simultaneous presentation of information from both domains may boost language learning by highlighting the connection between an object and a word, owing to temporal overlap in the presentation of multimodal input. However, the overlap is not merely temporal but can also covary in the extent to which particular actions co-occur with particular words and objects, e.g. carers typically produce a hopping action when talking about rabbits and a snapping action for crocodiles. The frequency with which actions and words co-occurs in the presence of the referents of these words may also impact young children's word learning. We, therefore, examined the extent to which consistency in the co-occurrence of particular actions and words impacted children's learning of novel word-object associations. Children (18 months, 30 months and 36-48 months) and adults were presented with two novel objects and heard their novel labels while different actions were performed on these objects, such that the particular actions and word-object pairings always co-occurred (Consistent group) or varied across trials (Inconsistent group). At test, participants saw both objects and heard one of the labels to examine whether participants recognized the target object upon hearing its label. Growth curve models revealed that 18-month-olds did not learn words for objects in either condition, and 30-month-old and 36- to 48-month-old children learned words for objects only in the Consistent condition, in contrast to adults who learned words for objects independent of the actions presented. Thus, consistency in the multimodal input influenced word learning in early childhood but not in adulthood. In terms of a dynamic systems account of word learning, our study shows how multimodal learning settings interact with the child's perceptual abilities to shape the learning experience.}, language = {en} } @article{SchaeferBittmann2020, author = {Schaefer, Laura and Bittmann, Frank}, title = {Mechanotendography in Achillodynia shows reduced oscillation variability of pre-loaded Achilles tendon}, series = {European Journal of Translational Myology (EJTM)}, volume = {30}, journal = {European Journal of Translational Myology (EJTM)}, number = {2}, publisher = {Unipress}, address = {Padova}, issn = {2037-7460}, doi = {10.4081/ejtm.2020.8983}, pages = {247 -- 257}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The present study focuses on an innovative approach in measuring the mechanical oscillations of pre-loaded Achilles tendon by using Mechanotendography (MTG) during application of a short yet powerful mechanical pressure impact. This was applied on the forefoot from the plantar side in direction of dorsiflexion, while the subject stood on the ball of the forefoot on one leg. Participants with Achilles tendinopathy (AT; n = 10) were compared to healthy controls (Con; n = 10). Five trials were performed on each side of the body. For evaluation, two intervals after the impulse began (0-100ms; 30-100ms) were cut from the MTG and pressure raw signals. The intrapersonal variability between the five trials in both intervals were evaluated using the arithmetic mean and coefficient of variation of the mean correlation (Spearman rank correlation) and the normalized averaged mean distances, respectively. The AT-group showed a significantly reduced variability in MTG compared to the Con-group (from p = 0.006 to p = 0.028 for different parameters). The 95\% confidence intervals (CI) of MTG results were disjoint, whereas the 95\% CIs of the pressure signals were similar (p = 0.192 to p = 0.601). We suggest from this work that the variability of mechanical tendon oscillations could be an indicative parameter of an altered Achilles tendon functionality.}, language = {en} } @article{KoussoroplisWacker2016, author = {Koussoroplis, Apostolos-Manuel and Wacker, Alexander}, title = {Covariance modulates the effect of joint temperature and food variance on ectotherm life-history traits}, series = {Ecology letters}, volume = {19}, journal = {Ecology letters}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1461-023X}, doi = {10.1111/ele.12546}, pages = {143 -- 152}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Understanding animal performance in heterogeneous or variable environments is a central question in ecology. We combine modelling and experiments to test how temperature and food availability variance jointly affect life-history traits of ectotherms. The model predicts that as mean temperatures move away from the ectotherm's thermal optimum, the effect size of joint thermal and food variance should become increasingly sensitive to their covariance. Below the thermal optimum, performance should be positively correlated with food-temperature covariance and the opposite is predicted above it. At lower temperatures, covariance should determine whether food and temperature variance increases or decreases performance compared to constant conditions. Somewhat stronger than predicted, the covariance effect below the thermal optimum was confirmed experimentally on an aquatic ectotherm (Daphnia magna) exposed to diurnal food and temperature variance with different amounts of covariance. Our findings have important implications for understanding ectotherm responses to climate-driven alterations of thermal mean and variance.}, language = {en} } @article{SeifertWeithoffVos2015, author = {Seifert, Linda I. and Weithoff, Guntram and Vos, Matthijs}, title = {Extreme heat changes post-heat wave community reassembly}, series = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {5}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, number = {11}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2045-7758}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.1490}, pages = {2140 -- 2148}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Climate forecasts project further increases in extremely high-temperature events. These present threats to biodiversity, as they promote population declines and local species extinctions. This implies that ecological communities will need to rely more strongly on recovery processes, such as recolonization from a meta-community context. It is poorly understood how differences in extreme event intensity change the outcome of subsequent community reassembly and if such extremes modify the biotic environment in ways that would prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. We studied replicated aquatic communities consisting of algae and herbivorous rotifers in a design that involved a control and two different heat wave intensity treatments (29 degrees C and 39 degrees C). Animal species that suffered heat-induced extinction were subsequently re-introduced at the same time and density, in each of the two treatments. The 39 degrees C treatment led to community closure in all replicates, meaning that a previously successful herbivore species could not re-establish itself in the postheat wave community. In contrast, such closure never occurred after a 29 degrees C event. Heat wave intensity determined the number of herbivore extinctions and strongly affected algal relative abundances. Re-introduced herbivore species were thus confronted with significantly different food environments. This ecological legacy generated by heat wave intensity led to differences in the failure or success of herbivore species re-introductions. Reassembly was significantly more variable, and hence less predictable, after an extreme heat wave, and was more canalized after a moderate one. Our results pertain to relatively simple communities, but they suggest that ecological legacies introduced by extremely high-temperature events may change subsequent ecological recovery and even prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. Knowing the processes promoting and preventing ecological recovery is crucial to the success of species re-introduction programs and to our ability to restore ecosystems damaged by environmental extremes.}, language = {en} } @article{ScharhagRosenbergerWalitzekKindermannetal.2012, author = {Scharhag-Rosenberger, Friederike and Walitzek, Susanne and Kindermann, Wilfried and Meyer, Tim}, title = {Differences in adaptations to 1 year of aerobic endurance training individual patterns of nonresponse}, series = {Scandinavian journal of medicine \& science in sports}, volume = {22}, journal = {Scandinavian journal of medicine \& science in sports}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Malden}, issn = {0905-7188}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0838.2010.01139.x}, pages = {113 -- 118}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Lacking responses to endurance training (ET) have been observed for several variables. However, detailed analyses of individuals' responses are scarce. To learn more about the variability of ET adaptations, patterns of response were analyzed for each subject in a 1-year ET study. Eighteen participants [42 +/- 5 years, body mass index: 24 +/- 3 kg/m2, maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max): 38 +/- 5 mL/min/kg] completed a 1-year jogging/walking program on 3 days/week, 45 min/session at 60\% heart rate (HR) reserve. VO2max, resting HR (rHR), exercise HR (eHR) and individual anaerobic threshold (IAT) were determined by treadmill and cycling ergometry respectively. Intraindividual coefficients of variation were extracted from the literature to distinguish random changes from training responses. Eight participants showed improvements in all variables. In 10 participants, one or two variables did not improve (VO2max, rHR, eHR and IAT remained unchanged in four, four, three and one cases, respectively). At least one variable improved in each subject. Data indicate that ET adaptations might be detected in each individual using multiple variables of different adaptation levels and intensity domains. Nonresponse seems to occur frequently and might affect all variables. Further studies should investigate whether nonresponders improve with altered training. Furthermore, associations between patterns of nonresponse and health benefits from ET are worth considering.}, language = {en} } @article{MenonLevermannSchewe2013, author = {Menon, Arathy and Levermann, Anders and Schewe, Jacob}, title = {Enhanced future variability during India's rainy season}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {40}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, number = {12}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1002/grl.50583}, pages = {3242 -- 3247}, year = {2013}, abstract = {The Indian summer monsoon shapes the livelihood of a large share of the world's population. About 80\% of annual precipitation over India occurs during the monsoon season from June through September. Next to its seasonal mean rainfall, the day-to-day variability is crucial for the risk of flooding, national water supply, and agricultural productivity. Here we show that the latest ensemble of climate model simulations, prepared for the AR-5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, consistently projects significant increases in day-to-day rainfall variability under unmitigated climate change. The relative increase by the period 2071-2100 with respect to the control period 1871-1900 ranges from 13\% to 50\% under the strongest scenario (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP-8.5), in the 10 models with the most realistic monsoon climatology; and 13\% to 85\% when all the 20 models are considered. The spread across models reduces when variability increase per degree of global warming is considered, which is independent of the scenario in most models, and is 8\% +/- 4\%/K on average. This consistent projection across 20 comprehensive climate models provides confidence in the results and suggests the necessity of profound adaptation measures in the case of unmitigated climate change.}, language = {en} } @article{KormannFranckeRenneretal.2015, author = {Kormann, C. and Francke, Till and Renner, M. and Bronstert, Axel}, title = {Attribution of high resolution streamflow trends in Western Austria}, series = {Hydrology and earth system sciences}, volume = {19}, journal = {Hydrology and earth system sciences}, publisher = {EGU}, address = {Katlenburg-Lindau}, issn = {1607-7938}, doi = {10.5194/hess-19-1225-2015}, pages = {1225 -- 1245}, year = {2015}, abstract = {The results of streamflow trend studies are often characterized by mostly insignificant trends and inexplicable spatial patterns. In our study region, Western Austria, this applies especially for trends of annually averaged runoff. However, analysing the altitudinal aspect, we found that there is a trend gradient from higher-altitude to lower-altitude stations, i.e. a pattern of mostly positive annual trends at higher stations and negative ones at lower stations. At midaltitudes, the trends are mostly insignificant. Here we hypothesize that the streamflow trends are caused by the following two main processes: on the one hand, melting glaciers produce excess runoff at higher-altitude watersheds. On the other hand, rising temperatures potentially alter hydrological conditions in terms of less snowfall, higher infiltration, enhanced evapotranspiration, etc., which in turn results in decreasing streamflow trends at lower-altitude watersheds. However, these patterns are masked at mid-altitudes because the resulting positive and negative trends balance each other. To support these hypotheses, we attempted to attribute the detected trends to specific causes. For this purpose, we analysed trends of filtered daily streamflow data, as the causes for these changes might be restricted to a smaller temporal scale than the annual one. This allowed for the explicit determination of the exact days of year (DOYs) when certain streamflow trends emerge, which were then linked with the corresponding DOYs of the trends and characteristic dates of other observed variables, e.g. the average DOY when temperature crosses the freezing point in spring. Based on these analyses, an empirical statistical model was derived that was able to simulate daily streamflow trends sufficiently well. Analyses of subdaily streamflow changes provided additional insights. Finally, the present study supports many modelling approaches in the literature which found out that the main drivers of alpine streamflow changes are increased glacial melt, earlier snowmelt and lower snow accumulation in wintertime.}, language = {en} }