@phdthesis{Kiemel2023, author = {Kiemel, Katrin}, title = {Zooplankton adaptations and community dynamics in space and time}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2023}, abstract = {In times of ongoing biodiversity loss, understanding how communities are structured and what mechanisms and local adaptations underlie the patterns we observe in nature is crucial for predicting how future ecological and anthropogenic changes might affect local and regional biodiversity. Aquatic zooplankton are a group of primary consumers that represent a critical link in the food chain, providing nutrients for the entire food web. Thus, understanding the adaptability and structure of zooplankton communities is essential. In this work, the genetic basis for the different temperature adaptations of two seasonally shifted (i.e., temperature-dependent) occurring freshwater rotifers of a formerly cryptic species complex (Brachionus calyciflorus) was investigated to understand the overall genetic diversity and evolutionary scenario for putative adaptations to different temperature regimes. Furthermore, this work aimed to clarify to what extent the different temperature adaptations may represent a niche partitioning process thus enabling co-existence. The findings were then embedded in a metacommunity context to understand how zooplankton communities assemble in a kettle hole metacommunity located in the northeastern German "Uckermark" and which underlying processes contribute to the biodiversity patterns we observe. Using a combined approach of newly generated mitochondrial resources (genomes/cds) and the analysis of a candidate gene (Heat Shock Protein 40kDa) for temperature adaptation, I showed that the global representatives of B. calyciflorus s.s.. are genetically more similar than B. fernandoi (average pairwise nucleotide diversity: 0.079 intraspecific vs. 0.257 interspecific) indicating that both species carry different standing genetic variation. In addition to differential expression in the thermotolerant B. calyciflorus s.s. and thermosensitive B. fernandoi, the HSP 40kDa also showed structural variation with eleven fixed and six positively selected sites, some of which are located in functional areas of the protein. The estimated divergence time of ~ 25-29 Myr combined with the fixed sites and a prevalence of ancestral amino acids in B. calyciflorus s.s. indicate that B. calyciflorus s.s. remained in the ancestral niche, while B. fernandoi partitioned into a new niche. The comparison of mitochondrial and nuclear markers (HPS 40kDa, ITS1, COI) revealed a hybridisation event between the two species. However, as hybridisation between the two species is rare, it can be concluded that the temporally isolated niches (i.e., seasonal-shifted occurrence) they inhabit based on their different temperature preferences most likely represent a pre-zygotic isolation mechanism that allows sympatric occurrence while maintaining species boundaries. To determine the processes underlying zooplankton community assembly, a zooplankton metacommunity comprising 24 kettle holes was sampled over a two-year period. Active (i.e., water samples) and dormant communities (i.e., dormant eggs hatched from sediment) were identified using a two-fragment DNA metabarcoding approach (COI and 18S). Species richness and diversity as well as community composition were analysed considering spatial, temporal and environmental parameters. The analysis revealed that environmental filtering based on parameters such as pH, size and location of the habitat patch (i.e., kettle hole) and surrounding field crops largely determined zooplankton community composition (explained variance: Bray-Curtis dissimilarities: 10.5\%; Jaccard dissimilarities: 12.9\%), indicating that adaptation to a particular habitat is a key feature of zooplankton species in this system. While the spatial configuration of the kettle holes played a minor role (explained variance: Bray-Curtis dissimilarities: 2.8\% and Jaccard dissimilarities: 5.5\%), the individual kettle hole sites had a significant influence on the community composition. This suggests monopolisation/priority effects (i.e., dormant communities) of certain species in individual kettle holes. As environmental filtering is the dominating process structuring zooplankton communities, this system could be significantly influenced by future land-use change, pollution and climate change.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{RodriguezCubillos2018, author = {Rodriguez Cubillos, Andres Eduardo}, title = {Understanding the impact of heterozygosity on metabolism, growth and hybrid necrosis within a local Arabidopsis thaliana collection site}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-416758}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {106}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Plants are unable to move away from unwanted environments and therefore have to locally adapt to changing conditions. Arabidopsis thaliana (Arabidopsis), a model organism in plant biology, has been able to rapidly colonize a wide spectrum of environments with different biotic and abiotic challenges. In recent years, natural variation in Arabidopsis has shown to be an excellent resource to study genes underlying adaptive traits and hybridization's impact on natural diversity. Studies on Arabidopsis hybrids have provided information on the genetic basis of hybrid incompatibilities and heterosis, as well as inheritance patterns in hybrids. However, previous studies have focused mainly on global accessions and yet much remains to be known about variation happening within a local growth habitat. In my PhD, I investigated the impact of heterozygosity at a local collection site of Arabidopsis and its role in local adaptation. I focused on two different projects, both including hybrids among Arabidopsis individuals collected around T{\"u}bingen in Southern Germany. The first project sought to understand the impact of hybridization on metabolism and growth within a local Arabidopsis collection site. For this, the inheritance patterns in primary and secondary metabolism, together with rosette size of full diallel crosses among seven parents originating from Southern Germany were analyzed. In comparison to primary metabolites, compounds from secondary metabolism were more variable and showed pronounced non-additive inheritance patterns. In addition, defense metabolites, mainly glucosinolates, displayed the highest degree of variation from the midparent values and were positively correlated with a proxy for plant size. In the second project, the role of ACCELERATED CELL DEATH 6 (ACD6) in the defense response pathway of Arabidopsis necrotic hybrids was further characterized. Allelic interactions of ACD6 have been previously linked to hybrid necrosis, both among global and local Arabidopsis accessions. Hence, I characterized the early metabolic and ionic changes induced by ACD6, together with marker gene expression assays of physiological responses linked to its activation. An upregulation of simple sugars and metabolites linked to non-enzymatic antioxidants and the TCA cycle were detected, together with putrescine and acids linked to abiotic stress responses. Senescence was found to be induced earlier in necrotic hybrids and cytoplasmic calcium signaling was unaffected in response to temperature. In parallel, GFP-tagged constructs of ACD6 were developed. This work therefore gave novel insights on the role of heterozygosity in natural variation and adaptation and expanded our current knowledge on the physiological and molecular responses associated with ACD6 activation.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Schaefer2019, author = {Sch{\"a}fer, Merlin}, title = {Understanding and predicting global change impacts on migratory birds}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-43925}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-439256}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {XIV, 153}, year = {2019}, abstract = {This is a publication-based dissertation comprising three original research stud-ies (one published, one submitted and one ready for submission; status March 2019). The dissertation introduces a generic computer model as a tool to investigate the behaviour and population dynamics of animals in cyclic environments. The model is further employed for analysing how migratory birds respond to various scenarios of altered food supply under global change. Here, ecological and evolutionary time-scales are considered, as well as the biological constraints and trade-offs the individual faces, which ultimately shape response dynamics at the population level. Further, the effect of fine-scale temporal patterns in re-source supply are studied, which is challenging to achieve experimentally. My findings predict population declines, altered behavioural timing and negative carry-over effects arising in migratory birds under global change. They thus stress the need for intensified research on how ecological mechanisms are affected by global change and for effective conservation measures for migratory birds. The open-source modelling software created for this dissertation can now be used for other taxa and related research questions. Overall, this thesis improves our mechanistic understanding of the impacts of global change on migratory birds as one prerequisite to comprehend ongoing global biodiversity loss. The research results are discussed in a broader ecological and scientific context in a concluding synthesis chapter.}, language = {en} } @article{HodappRabovsky2021, author = {Hodapp, Alice and Rabovsky, Milena}, title = {The N400 ERP component reflects an error-based implicit learning signal during language comprehension}, series = {European journal of neuroscience}, volume = {54}, journal = {European journal of neuroscience}, number = {9}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0953-816X}, doi = {10.1111/ejn.15462}, pages = {7125 -- 7140}, year = {2021}, abstract = {The functional significance of the N400 evoked-response component is still actively debated. An increasing amount of theoretical and computational modelling work is built on the interpretation of the N400 as a prediction error. In neural network modelling work, it was proposed that the N400 component can be interpreted as the change in a probabilistic representation of meaning that drives the continuous adaptation of an internal model of the statistics of the environment. These results imply that increased N400 amplitudes should correspond to greater adaptation, which can be measured via implicit memory. To investigate this model derived hypothesis, the current study manipulated expectancy in a sentence reading task to influence N400 amplitudes and subsequently presented the previously expected vs. unexpected words in a perceptual identification task to measure implicit memory. As predicted, reaction times in the perceptual identification task were significantly faster for previously unexpected words that induced larger N400 amplitudes in the previous sentence reading task. Additionally, it could be demonstrated that this adaptation seems to specifically depend on the process underlying N400 amplitudes, as participants with larger N400 differences during sentence reading also exhibited a larger implicit memory benefit in the perceptual identification task. These findings support the interpretation of the N400 as an implicit learning signal driving adaptation in language processing.}, language = {en} } @misc{MaleszaOstaszewskiBuechneretal.2017, author = {Malesza, Marta and Ostaszewski, Paweł and B{\"u}chner, Susanne and Kaczmarek, Magdalena Claudia}, title = {The adaptation of the Short Dark Triad personality measure}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {555}, issn = {1866-8364}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-43289}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-432896}, pages = {10}, year = {2017}, abstract = {This research was designed to adapt and investigate the psychometric properties of the Short Dark Triad measure (Jones and Paulhus Assessment, 21(1), 28-41, 2014) in a German sample within four studies (total N = 1463); the measure evaluates three personality dimensions: narcissism, psychopathy, and Machiavellianism. The structure of the instrument was analysed by Confirmatory Factor Analyses procedure. It indicated that the three-factor structure had the best fit to the data. Next, the Short Dark Triad measure was evaluated in terms of construct, convergent and discriminant validity, internal consistency (≥ .72), and test-retest reliability during a 4-week period (≥ .73). Concurrent validity of the SD3 was supported by relating its subscales to measures of the Big Five concept, aggression, and self-esteem. We concluded that the Short Dark Triad instrument presented high cross-language replicability. The use of this short inventory in the investigation of the Dark Triad personality model in the German language context is suggested.}, language = {en} } @article{JehmlichHudsonThieken2020, author = {Jehmlich, Caroline and Hudson, Paul and Thieken, Annegret}, title = {Short contribution on adaptive behaviour of flood-prone companies}, series = {Journal of Flood Risk Management}, volume = {13}, journal = {Journal of Flood Risk Management}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {1753-318X}, doi = {10.1111/jfr3.12653}, pages = {7}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Integrated flood management strategies consider property-level precautionary measures as a vital part. Whereas this is a well-researched topic for residents, little is known about the adaptive behaviour of flood-prone companies although they often settle on the ground floor of buildings and are thus among the first affected by flooding. This pilot study analyses flood responses of 64 businesses in a district of the city of Dresden, Germany that experienced major flooding in 2002 and 2013. Using standardised survey data and accompanying qualitative interviews, the analyses revealed that the largest driver of adaptive behaviour is experiencing flood events. Intangible factors such as tradition and a sense of community play a role for the decision to stay in the area, while lacking ownership might hamper property-level adaptation. Further research is also needed to understand the role of insurance and governmental aid for recovery and adaptation of businesses.}, language = {en} } @misc{JehmlichHudsonThieken2020, author = {Jehmlich, Caroline and Hudson, Paul and Thieken, Annegret}, title = {Short contribution on adaptive behaviour of flood-prone companies}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1024}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-48552}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-485528}, pages = {9}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Integrated flood management strategies consider property-level precautionary measures as a vital part. Whereas this is a well-researched topic for residents, little is known about the adaptive behaviour of flood-prone companies although they often settle on the ground floor of buildings and are thus among the first affected by flooding. This pilot study analyses flood responses of 64 businesses in a district of the city of Dresden, Germany that experienced major flooding in 2002 and 2013. Using standardised survey data and accompanying qualitative interviews, the analyses revealed that the largest driver of adaptive behaviour is experiencing flood events. Intangible factors such as tradition and a sense of community play a role for the decision to stay in the area, while lacking ownership might hamper property-level adaptation. Further research is also needed to understand the role of insurance and governmental aid for recovery and adaptation of businesses.}, language = {en} } @article{SchachnerJuangMoffittetal.2018, author = {Schachner, Maja Katharina and Juang, Linda P. and Moffitt, Ursula Elinor and van de Vijver, Fons J. R.}, title = {Schools as acculturative and developmental contexts for youth of immigrant and refugee background}, series = {European psychologist : official organ of the European Federation of Psychologists' Associations (EFPA)}, volume = {23}, journal = {European psychologist : official organ of the European Federation of Psychologists' Associations (EFPA)}, number = {1}, publisher = {Hogrefe Publ.}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1016-9040}, doi = {10.1027/1016-9040/a000312}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-414101}, pages = {44 -- 56}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Schools are important for the academic and socio-emotional development, as well as acculturation of immigrant-and refugee-background youth. We highlight individual differences which shape their unique experiences, while considering three levels of the school context in terms of how they may affect adaptation outcomes: (1) interindividual interactions in the classroom (such as peer relations, student-teacher relations, teacher beliefs, and teaching practices), (2) characteristics of the classroom or school (such as ethnic composition and diversity climate), and (3) relevant school-and nation-level policies (such as diversity policies and school tracking). Given the complexity of the topic, there is a need for more research taking an integrated and interdisciplinary perspective to address migration related issues in the school context. Teacher beliefs and the normative climate in schools seem particularly promising points for intervention, which may be easier to change than structural aspects of the school context. More inclusive schools are also an important step toward more peaceful interethnic relations in diverse societies.}, language = {en} } @misc{SchachnerJuangMoffittetal.2018, author = {Schachner, Maja Katharina and Juang, Linda P. and Moffitt, Ursula Elinor and van de Vijver, Fons J. R.}, title = {Schools as acculturative and developmental contexts for youth of immigrant and refugee background}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {611}, issn = {1866-8364}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-43408}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-434082}, pages = {44 -- 56}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Schools are important for the academic and socio-emotional development, as well as acculturation of immigrant-and refugee-background youth. We highlight individual differences which shape their unique experiences, while considering three levels of the school context in terms of how they may affect adaptation outcomes: (1) interindividual interactions in the classroom (such as peer relations, student-teacher relations, teacher beliefs, and teaching practices), (2) characteristics of the classroom or school (such as ethnic composition and diversity climate), and (3) relevant school-and nation-level policies (such as diversity policies and school tracking). Given the complexity of the topic, there is a need for more research taking an integrated and interdisciplinary perspective to address migration related issues in the school context. Teacher beliefs and the normative climate in schools seem particularly promising points for intervention, which may be easier to change than structural aspects of the school context. More inclusive schools are also an important step toward more peaceful interethnic relations in diverse societies.}, language = {en} } @misc{CampbellHofreiter2015, author = {Campbell, Kevin L. and Hofreiter, Michael}, title = {Resurrecting phenotypes from ancient DNA sequences: promises and perspectives}, series = {Canadian journal of zoology = Revue canadienne de zoologie}, volume = {93}, journal = {Canadian journal of zoology = Revue canadienne de zoologie}, number = {9}, publisher = {NRC Research Press}, address = {Ottawa}, issn = {0008-4301}, doi = {10.1139/cjz-2014-0337}, pages = {701 -- 710}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Anatomical changes in extinct mammalian lineages over evolutionary time, such as the loss of fingers and teeth and the rapid increase in body size that accompanied the late Miocene dispersal of the progenitors of Steller's sea cows (Hydrodamalis gigas (Zimmermann, 1780)) into North Pacific waters and the convergent development of a thick pelage and accompanying reductions in ear and tail surface area of woolly mammoths (Mammuthus primigenius (Blumenbach, 1799)) and woolly rhinoceros (Coelodonta antiquitatis (Blumenbach, 1799)), are prime examples of adaptive evolution underlying the exploitation of new habitats. It is likely, however, that biochemical specializations adopted during these evolutionary transitions were of similar or even greater biological importance. As these "living" processes do not fossilize, direct information regarding the physiological attributes of extinct species has largely remained beyond the range of scientific inquiry. However, the ability to retrieve genomic sequences from ancient DNA samples, combined with ectopic expression systems, now permit the evolutionary origins and structural and functional properties of authentic prehistoric proteins to be examined in great detail. Exponential technical advances in ancient DNA retrieval, enrichment, and sequencing will soon permit targeted generation of complete genomes from hundreds of extinct species across the last one million years that, in combination with emerging in vitro expression, genome engineering, and cell differentiation techniques, promises to herald an exciting new trajectory of evolutionary research at the interface of biochemistry, genomics, palaeontology, and cell biology.}, language = {en} } @article{SchwensowDeteringPedersonetal.2017, author = {Schwensow, Nina I. and Detering, Harald and Pederson, Stephen and Mazzoni, Camila and Sinclair, Ron and Peacock, David and Kovaliski, John and Cooke, Brian and Fickel, J{\"o}rns and Sommer, Simone}, title = {Resistance to RHD virus in wild Australian rabbits}, series = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {26}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0962-1083}, doi = {10.1111/mec.14228}, pages = {4551 -- 4561}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Deciphering the genes involved in disease resistance is essential if we are to understand host-pathogen coevolutionary processes. The rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) was imported into Australia in 1995 as a biocontrol agent to manage one of the most successful and devastating invasive species, the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). During the first outbreaks of the disease, RHDV caused mortality rates of up to 97\%. Recently, however, increased genetic resistance to RHDV has been reported. Here, we have aimed to identify genomic differences between rabbits that survived a natural infection with RHDV and those that died in the field using a genomewide next-generation sequencing (NGS) approach. We detected 72 SNPs corresponding to 133 genes associated with survival of a RHD infection. Most of the identified genes have known functions in virus infections and replication, immune responses or apoptosis, or have previously been found to be regulated during RHD. Some of the genes identified in experimental studies, however, did not seem to play a role under natural selection regimes, highlighting the importance of field studies to complement the genomic background of wildlife diseases. Our study provides a set of candidate markers as a tool for the future scanning of wild rabbits for their resistance to RHDV. This is important both for wild rabbit populations in southern Europe where RHD is regarded as a serious problem decimating the prey of endangered predator species and for assessing the success of currently planned RHDV variant biocontrol releases in Australia.}, language = {en} } @article{HeffnerFuhrmeisterLuthraetal.2022, author = {Heffner, Christopher C. and Fuhrmeister, Pamela and Luthra, Sahil and Mechtenberg, Hannah and Saltzman, David and Myers, Emily B.}, title = {Reliability and validity for perceptual flexibility in speech}, series = {Brain and language : a journal of clinical, experimental and theoretical research}, volume = {226}, journal = {Brain and language : a journal of clinical, experimental and theoretical research}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam [u.a.]}, issn = {0093-934X}, doi = {10.1016/j.bandl.2021.105070}, pages = {11}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The study of perceptual flexibility in speech depends on a variety of tasks that feature a large degree of variability between participants. Of critical interest is whether measures are consistent within an individual or across stimulus contexts. This is particularly key for individual difference designs that are deployed to examine the neural basis or clinical consequences of perceptual flexibility. In the present set of experiments, we assess the split-half reliability and construct validity of five measures of perceptual flexibility: three of learning in a native language context (e.g., understanding someone with a foreign accent) and two of learning in a non-native context (e.g., learning to categorize non-native speech sounds). We find that most of these tasks show an appreciable level of split-half reliability, although construct validity was sometimes weak. This provides good evidence for reliability for these tasks, while highlighting possible upper limits on expected effect sizes involving each measure.}, language = {en} } @article{JohnOlasMuellerRoeber2021, author = {John, Sheeba and Olas, Justyna Jadwiga and M{\"u}ller-R{\"o}ber, Bernd}, title = {Regulation of alternative splicing in response to temperature variation in plants}, series = {Journal of experimental botany}, volume = {72}, journal = {Journal of experimental botany}, number = {18}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0022-0957}, doi = {10.1093/jxb/erab232}, pages = {6150 -- 6163}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Plants have evolved numerous molecular strategies to cope with perturbations in environmental temperature, and to adjust growth and physiology to limit the negative effects of extreme temperature. One of the strategies involves alternative splicing of primary transcripts to encode alternative protein products or transcript variants destined for degradation by nonsense-mediated decay. Here, we review how changes in environmental temperature-cold, heat, and moderate alterations in temperature-affect alternative splicing in plants, including crops. We present examples of the mode of action of various temperature-induced splice variants and discuss how these alternative splicing events enable favourable plant responses to altered temperatures. Finally, we point out unanswered questions that should be addressed to fully utilize the endogenous mechanisms in plants to adjust their growth to environmental temperature. We also indicate how this knowledge might be used to enhance crop productivity in the future.}, language = {en} } @article{TesselaarBotzenHaeretal.2020, author = {Tesselaar, Max and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Haer, Toon and Hudson, Paul and Tiggeloven, Timothy and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.}, title = {Regional inequalities in flood insurance affordability and uptake under climate change}, series = {Sustainability}, volume = {12}, journal = {Sustainability}, number = {20}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2071-1050}, doi = {10.3390/su12208734}, pages = {30}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Flood insurance coverage can enhance financial resilience of households to changing flood risk caused by climate change. However, income inequalities imply that not all households can afford flood insurance. The uptake of flood insurance in voluntary markets may decline when flood risk increases as a result of climate change. This increase in flood risk may cause substantially higher risk-based insurance premiums, reduce the willingness to purchase flood insurance, and worsen problems with the unaffordability of coverage for low-income households. A socio-economic tipping-point can occur when the functioning of a formal flood insurance system is hampered by diminishing demand for coverage. In this study, we examine whether such a tipping-point can occur in Europe for current flood insurance systems under different trends in future flood risk caused by climate and socio-economic change. This analysis gives insights into regional inequalities concerning the ability to continue to use flood insurance as an instrument to adapt to changing flood risk. For this study, we adapt the "Dynamic Integrated Flood and Insurance" (DIFI) model by integrating new flood risk simulations in the model that enable examining impacts from various scenarios of climate and socio-economic change on flood insurance premiums and consumer demand. Our results show rising unaffordability and declining demand for flood insurance across scenarios towards 2080. Under a high climate change scenario, simulations show the occurrence of a socio-economic tipping-point in several regions, where insurance uptake almost disappears. A tipping-point and related inequalities in the ability to use flood insurance as an adaptation instrument can be mitigated by introducing reforms of flood insurance arrangements.}, language = {en} } @article{SchwensowCookeKovaliskietal.2014, author = {Schwensow, Nina I. and Cooke, Brian and Kovaliski, John and Sinclair, Ron and Peacock, David and Fickel, J{\"o}rns and Sommer, Simone}, title = {Rabbit haemorrhagic disease: virus persistence and adaptation in Australia}, series = {Evolutionary applications}, volume = {7}, journal = {Evolutionary applications}, number = {9}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1752-4571}, doi = {10.1111/eva.12195}, pages = {1056 -- 1067}, year = {2014}, abstract = {In Australia, the rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV) has been used since 1996 to reduce numbers of introduced European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) which have a devastating impact on the native Australian environment. RHDV causes regular, short disease outbreaks, but little is known about how the virus persists and survives between epidemics. We examined the initial spread of RHDV to show that even upon its initial spread, the virus circulated continuously on a regional scale rather than persisting at a local population level and that Australian rabbit populations are highly interconnected by virus-carrying flying vectors. Sequencing data obtained from a single rabbit population showed that the viruses that caused an epidemic each year seldom bore close genetic resemblance to those present in previous years. Together, these data suggest that RHDV survives in the Australian environment through its ability to spread amongst rabbit subpopulations. This is consistent with modelling results that indicated that in a large interconnected rabbit meta-population, RHDV should maintain high virulence, cause short, strong disease outbreaks but show low persistence in any given subpopulation. This new epidemiological framework is important for understanding virus-host co-evolution and future disease management options of pest species to secure Australia's remaining natural biodiversity.}, language = {en} } @misc{BoettleRybskiKropp2016, author = {Boettle, Markus and Rybski, Diego and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Quantifying the effect of sea level rise and flood defence}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {559}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41240}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412405}, pages = {18}, year = {2016}, abstract = {In contrast to recent advances in projecting sea levels, estimations about the economic impact of sea level rise are vague. Nonetheless, they are of great importance for policy making with regard to adaptation and greenhouse-gas mitigation. Since the damage is mainly caused by extreme events, we propose a stochastic framework to estimate the monetary losses from coastal floods in a confined region. For this purpose, we follow a Peak-over-Threshold approach employing a Poisson point process and the Generalised Pareto Distribution. By considering the effect of sea level rise as well as potential adaptation scenarios on the involved parameters, we are able to study the development of the annual damage. An application to the city of Copenhagen shows that a doubling of losses can be expected from a mean sea level increase of only 11 cm. In general, we find that for varying parameters the expected losses can be well approximated by one of three analytical expressions depending on the extreme value parameters. These findings reveal the complex interplay of the involved parameters and allow conclusions of fundamental relevance. For instance, we show that the damage typically increases faster than the sea level rise itself. This in turn can be of great importance for the assessment of sea level rise impacts on the global scale. Our results are accompanied by an assessment of uncertainty, which reflects the stochastic nature of extreme events. While the absolute value of uncertainty about the flood damage increases with rising mean sea levels, we find that it decreases in relation to the expected damage.}, language = {en} } @article{SairamSchroeterLuedtkeetal.2019, author = {Sairam, Nivedita and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and L{\"u}dtke, Stefan and Merz, Bruno and Kreibich, Heidi}, title = {Quantifying Flood Vulnerability Reduction via Private Precaution}, series = {Earth future}, volume = {7}, journal = {Earth future}, number = {3}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2328-4277}, doi = {10.1029/2018EF000994}, pages = {235 -- 249}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Private precaution is an important component in contemporary flood risk management and climate adaptation. However, quantitative knowledge about vulnerability reduction via private precautionary measures is scarce and their effects are hardly considered in loss modeling and risk assessments. However, this is a prerequisite to enable temporally dynamic flood damage and risk modeling, and thus the evaluation of risk management and adaptation strategies. To quantify the average reduction in vulnerability of residential buildings via private precaution empirical vulnerability data (n = 948) is used. Households with and without precautionary measures undertaken before the flood event are classified into treatment and nontreatment groups and matched. Postmatching regression is used to quantify the treatment effect. Additionally, we test state-of-the-art flood loss models regarding their capability to capture this difference in vulnerability. The estimated average treatment effect of implementing private precaution is between 11 and 15 thousand EUR per household, confirming the significant effectiveness of private precautionary measures in reducing flood vulnerability. From all tested flood loss models, the expert Bayesian network-based model BN-FLEMOps and the rule-based loss model FLEMOps perform best in capturing the difference in vulnerability due to private precaution. Thus, the use of such loss models is suggested for flood risk assessments to effectively support evaluations and decision making for adaptable flood risk management.}, language = {en} } @misc{BubeckAertsdeMoeletal.2016, author = {Bubeck, Philip and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. and de Moel, Hans and Kreibich, Heidi}, title = {Preface}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {609}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41238}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412387}, pages = {6}, year = {2016}, abstract = {kein abstract}, language = {en} } @article{BreitkopfSchlueterXuetal.2013, author = {Breitkopf, Hendrik and Schl{\"u}ter, P. M. and Xu, S. and Schiestl, Florian P. and Cozzolino, S. and Scopece, G.}, title = {Pollinator shifts between Ophrys sphegodes populations: might adaptation to different pollinators drive population divergence?}, series = {Journal of evolutionary biology}, volume = {26}, journal = {Journal of evolutionary biology}, number = {10}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1010-061X}, doi = {10.1111/jeb.12216}, pages = {2197 -- 2208}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Local adaptation to different pollinators is considered one of the possible initial stages of ecological speciation as reproductive isolation is a by-product of the divergence in pollination systems. However, pollinator-mediated divergent selection will not necessarily result in complete reproductive isolation, because incipient speciation is often overcome by gene flow. We investigated the potential of pollinator shift in the sexually deceptive orchids Ophrys sphegodes and Ophrys exaltata and compared the levels of floral isolation vs. genetic distance among populations with contrasting predominant pollinators. We analysed floral hydrocarbons as a proxy for floral divergence between populations. Floral adoption of pollinators and their fidelity was tested using pollinator choice experiments. Interpopulation gene flow and population differentiation levels were estimated using AFLP markers. The Tyrrhenian O.sphegodes population preferentially attracted the pollinator bee Andrena bimaculata, whereas the Adriatic O.sphegodes population exclusively attracted A.nigroaenea. Significant differences in scent component proportions were identified in O.sphegodes populations that attracted different preferred pollinators. High interpopulation gene flow was detected, but populations were genetically structured at species level. The high interpopulation gene flow levels independent of preferred pollinators suggest that local adaptation to different pollinators has not (yet) generated detectable genome-wide separation. Alternatively, despite extensive gene flow, few genes underlying floral isolation remain differentiated as a consequence of divergent selection. Different pollination ecotypes in O.sphegodes might represent a local selective response imposed by temporal variation in a geographical mosaic of pollinators as a consequence of the frequent disturbance regimes typical of Ophrys habitats.}, language = {en} } @article{WiesnerLoxdaleKoehleretal.2011, author = {Wiesner, Kerstin R. and Loxdale, Hugh D. and K{\"o}hler, G{\"u}nter and Schneider, Anja R. R. and Tiedemann, Ralph and Weisser, Wolfgang W.}, title = {Patterns of local and regional genetic structuring in the meadow grasshopper, Chorthippus parallelus (Orthoptera: Acrididae), in Central Germany revealed using microsatellite markers}, series = {Biological journal of the Linnean Society : a journal of evolution}, volume = {103}, journal = {Biological journal of the Linnean Society : a journal of evolution}, number = {4}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Malden}, issn = {0024-4066}, doi = {10.1111/j.1095-8312.2011.01698.x}, pages = {875 -- 890}, year = {2011}, abstract = {The meadow grasshopper, Chorthippus parallelus (Zetterstedt), is common and widespread in Central Europe, with a low dispersal range per generation. A population study in Central Germany (Frankenwald and Thuringer Schiefergebirge) showed strong interpopulation differences in abundance and individual fitness. We examined genetic variability using microsatellite markers within and between 22 populations in a short-to long-distance sampling (19 populations, Frankenwald, Schiefergebirge, as well as a southern transect), and in the Erzgebirge region (three populations), with the latter aiming to check for effects as a result of historical forest cover. Of the 671 C. parallelus captured, none was macropterous (functionally winged). All populations showed a high level of expected and observed heterozygosity (mean 0.80-0.90 and 0.60-0.75, respectively), whereas there was evidence of inbreeding (F(IS) values all positive). Allelic richness for all locus-population combinations was high (mean 9.3-11.2), whereas alleles per locus ranged from 15-62. At a local level, genic and genotypic differences were significant. Pairwise F(ST) values were in the range 0.00-0.04, indicating little interpopulation genetic differentiation. Similarly, the calculated gene flow was very high, based on the respective F(ST) (19.5) and using private alleles (7.7). A Neighbour-joining tree using Nei's D(A) and principal coordinate analysis separated two populations that were collected in the Erzgebirge region. Populations from this region may have escaped the effects of the historical forest cover. The visualization of the spatial arrangement of genotypes revealed one geographical barrier to gene flow in the short-distance sampling.}, language = {en} } @article{WeyrichLenzJescheketal.2016, author = {Weyrich, Alexandra and Lenz, Dorina and Jeschek, Marie and Tzu Hung Chung, and Ruebensam, Kathrin and Goeritz, Frank and Jewgenow, Katarina and Fickel, J{\"o}rns}, title = {Paternal intergenerational epigenetic response to heat exposure in male Wild guinea pigs}, series = {Molecular ecology}, volume = {25}, journal = {Molecular ecology}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0962-1083}, doi = {10.1111/mec.13494}, pages = {1729 -- 1740}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Epigenetic modifications, of which DNA methylation is the best studied one, can convey environmental information through generations via parental germ lines. Past studies have focused on the maternal transmission of epigenetic information to the offspring of isogenic mice and rats in response to external changes, whereas heterogeneous wild mammals as well as paternal epigenetic effects have been widely neglected. In most wild mammal species, males are the dispersing sex and have to cope with differing habitats and thermal changes. As temperature is a major environmental factor we investigated if genetically heterogeneous Wild guinea pig (Cavia aperea) males can adapt epigenetically to an increase in temperature and if that response will be transmitted to the next generation(s). Five adult male guinea pigs (F0) were exposed to an increased ambient temperature for 2 months, i.e. the duration of spermatogenesis. We studied the liver (as the main thermoregulatory organ) of F0 fathers and F1 sons, and testes of F1 sons for paternal transmission of epigenetic modifications across generation(s). Reduced representation bisulphite sequencing revealed shared differentially methylated regions in annotated areas between F0 livers before and after heat treatment, and their sons' livers and testes, which indicated a general response with ecological relevance. Thus, paternal exposure to a temporally limited increased ambient temperature led to an 'immediate' and 'heritable' epigenetic response that may even be transmitted to the F2 generation. In the context of globally rising temperatures epigenetic mechanisms may become increasingly relevant for the survival of species.}, language = {en} } @article{WagenerReineckePianosi2022, author = {Wagener, Thorsten and Reinecke, Robert and Pianosi, Francesca}, title = {On the evaluation of climate change impact models}, series = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews : Climate change}, volume = {13}, journal = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews : Climate change}, number = {3}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1757-7780}, doi = {10.1002/wcc.772}, pages = {13}, year = {2022}, abstract = {In-depth understanding of the potential implications of climate change is required to guide decision- and policy-makers when developing adaptation strategies and designing infrastructure suitable for future conditions. Impact models that translate potential future climate conditions into variables of interest are needed to create the causal connection between a changing climate and its impact for different sectors. Recent surveys suggest that the primary strategy for validating such models (and hence for justifying their use) heavily relies on assessing the accuracy of model simulations by comparing them against historical observations. We argue that such a comparison is necessary and valuable, but not sufficient to achieve a comprehensive evaluation of climate change impact models. We believe that a complementary, largely observation-independent, step of model evaluation is needed to ensure more transparency of model behavior and greater robustness of scenario-based analyses. This step should address the following four questions: (1) Do modeled dominant process controls match our system perception? (2) Is my model's sensitivity to changing forcing as expected? (3) Do modeled decision levers show adequate influence? (4) Can we attribute uncertainty sources throughout the projection horizon? We believe that global sensitivity analysis, with its ability to investigate a model's response to joint variations of multiple inputs in a structured way, offers a coherent approach to address all four questions comprehensively. Such additional model evaluation would strengthen stakeholder confidence in model projections and, therefore, into the adaptation strategies derived with the help of impact models. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change}, language = {en} } @article{WenzLevermannAuffhammer2017, author = {Wenz, Leonie and Levermann, Anders and Auffhammer, Maximilian}, title = {North-south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming}, series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0027-8424}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1704339114}, pages = {E7910 -- E7918}, year = {2017}, abstract = {There is growing empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change will substantially affect the electric sector. Impacts will stem both from the supply sidethrough the mitigation of greenhouse gasesand from the demand sidethrough adaptive responses to a changing environment. Here we provide evidence of a polarization of both peak load and overall electricity consumption under future warming for the worlds third-largest electricity marketthe 35 countries of Europe. We statistically estimate country-level doseresponse functions between daily peak/total electricity load and ambient temperature for the period 2006-2012. After removing the impact of nontemperature confounders and normalizing the residual load data for each country, we estimate a common doseresponse function, which we use to compute national electricity loads for temperatures that lie outside each countrys currently observed temperature range. To this end, we impose end-of-century climate on todays European economies following three different greenhouse-gas concentration trajectories, ranging from ambitious climate-change mitigationin line with the Paris agreementto unabated climate change. We find significant increases in average daily peak load and overall electricity consumption in southern and western Europe (similar to 3 to similar to 7\% for Portugal and Spain) and significant decreases in northern Europe (similar to-6 to similar to-2\% for Sweden and Norway). While the projected effect on European total consumption is nearly zero, the significant polarization and seasonal shifts in peak demand and consumption have important ramifications for the location of costly peak-generating capacity, transmission infrastructure, and the design of energy-efficiency policy and storage capacity.}, language = {en} } @article{DellingerEsslHojsgaardetal.2016, author = {Dellinger, Agnes S. and Essl, Franz and Hojsgaard, Diego and Kirchheimer, Bernhard and Klatt, Simone and Dawson, Wayne and Pergl, Jan and Pysek, Petr and van Kleunen, Mark and Weber, Ewald and Winter, Marten and Hoerandl, Elvira and Dullinger, Stefan}, title = {Niche dynamics of alien species do not differ among sexual and apomictic flowering plants}, series = {New phytologist : international journal of plant science}, volume = {209}, journal = {New phytologist : international journal of plant science}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0028-646X}, doi = {10.1111/nph.13694}, pages = {1313 -- 1323}, year = {2016}, abstract = {We compiled global occurrence data sets of 13 congeneric sexual and apomictic species pairs, and used principal components analysis (PCA) and kernel smoothers to compare changes in climatic niche optima, breadths and unfilling/expansion between native and alien ranges. Niche change metrics were compared between sexual and apomictic species. All 26 species showed changes in niche optima and/or breadth and 14 species significantly expanded their climatic niches. However, we found no effect of the reproductive system on niche dynamics. Instead, species with narrower native niches showed higher rates of niche expansion in the alien ranges. Our results suggest that niche shifts are frequent in plant invasions but evolutionary potential may not be of major importance for such shifts. Niche dynamics rather appear to be driven by changes of the realized niche without adaptive change of the fundamental climatic niche.}, language = {en} } @article{KruseKolmogorovPestryakovaetal.2020, author = {Kruse, Stefan and Kolmogorov, Aleksey I. and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Long-lived larch clones may conserve adaptations that could restrict treeline migration in northern Siberia}, series = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {10}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, number = {18}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2045-7758}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.6660}, pages = {10017 -- 10030}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The occurrence of refugia beyond the arctic treeline and genetic adaptation therein play a crucial role of largely unknown effect size. While refugia have potential for rapidly colonizing the tundra under global warming, the taxa may be maladapted to the new environmental conditions. Understanding the genetic composition and age of refugia is thus crucial for predicting any migration response. Here, we genotype 194 larch individuals from an similar to 1.8 km(2)area in northcentral Siberia on the southern Taimyr Peninsula by applying an assay of 16 nuclear microsatellite markers. For estimating the age of clonal individuals, we counted tree rings at sections along branches to establish a lateral growth rate that was then combined with geographic distance. Findings reveal that the predominant reproduction type is clonal (58.76\%) by short distance spreading of ramets. One outlier of clones 1 km apart could have been dispersed by reindeer. In clonal groups and within individuals, we find that somatic mutations accumulate with geographic distance. Clonal groups of two or more individuals are observed. Clonal age estimates regularly suggest individuals as old as 2,200 years, which coincides with a major environmental change that forced a treeline retreat in the region. We conclude that individuals with clonal growth mode were naturally selected as it lowers the likely risk of extinction under a harsh environment. We discuss this legacy from the past that might now be a maladaptation and hinder expansion under currently strongly increasing temperatures.}, language = {en} } @article{KreibichHudsonMerz2021, author = {Kreibich, Heidi and Hudson, Paul and Merz, Bruno}, title = {Knowing what to do substantially improves the effectiveness of flood early warning}, series = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, volume = {102}, journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, number = {7}, publisher = {American Meteorological Soc.}, address = {Boston}, issn = {0003-0007}, doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0262.1}, pages = {E1450 -- E1463}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Flood warning systems are longstanding success stories with respect to protecting human life, but monetary losses continue to grow. Knowledge on the effectiveness of flood early warning in reducing monetary losses is scarce, especially at the individual level. To gain more knowledge in this area, we analyze a dataset that is unique with respect to detailed information on warning reception and monetary losses at the property level and with respect to amount of data available. The dataset contains 4,468 loss cases from six flood events in Germany. These floods occurred between 2002 and 2013. The data from each event were collected by computer-aided telephone interviews in four surveys following a repeated cross-sectional design. We quantitatively reveal that flood early warning is only effective in reducing monetary losses when people know what to do when they receive the warning. We also show that particularly long-term preparedness is associated with people knowing what to do when they receive a warning. Thus, risk communication, training, and (financial) support for private preparedness are effective in mitigating flood losses in two ways: precautionary measures and more effective emergency responses.}, language = {en} } @article{ZancolliBakerBarlowetal.2016, author = {Zancolli, Giulia and Baker, Timothy G. and Barlow, Axel and Bradley, Rebecca K. and Calvete, Juan J. and Carter, Kimberley C. and de Jager, Kaylah and Owens, John Benjamin and Price, Jenny Forrester and Sanz, Libia and Scholes-Higham, Amy and Shier, Liam and Wood, Liam and W{\"u}ster, Catharine E. and W{\"u}ster, Wolfgang}, title = {Is Hybridization a Source of Adaptive Venom Variation in Rattlesnakes? A Test, Using a Crotalus scutulatus x viridis Hybrid Zone in Southwestern New Mexico}, series = {Toxins}, volume = {8}, journal = {Toxins}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2072-6651}, doi = {10.3390/toxins8060188}, pages = {16}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Venomous snakes often display extensive variation in venom composition both between and within species. However, the mechanisms underlying the distribution of different toxins and venom types among populations and taxa remain insufficiently known. Rattlesnakes (Crotalus, Sistrurus) display extreme inter-and intraspecific variation in venom composition, centered particularly on the presence or absence of presynaptically neurotoxic phospholipases A2 such as Mojave toxin (MTX). Interspecific hybridization has been invoked as a mechanism to explain the distribution of these toxins across rattlesnakes, with the implicit assumption that they are adaptively advantageous. Here, we test the potential of adaptive hybridization as a mechanism for venom evolution by assessing the distribution of genes encoding the acidic and basic subunits of Mojave toxin across a hybrid zone between MTX-positive Crotalus scutulatus and MTX-negative C. viridis in southwestern New Mexico, USA. Analyses of morphology, mitochondrial and single copy-nuclear genes document extensive admixture within a narrow hybrid zone. The genes encoding the two MTX subunits are strictly linked, and found in most hybrids and backcrossed individuals, but not in C. viridis away from the hybrid zone. Presence of the genes is invariably associated with presence of the corresponding toxin in the venom. We conclude that introgression of highly lethal neurotoxins through hybridization is not necessarily favored by natural selection in rattlesnakes, and that even extensive hybridization may not lead to introgression of these genes into another species.}, language = {en} } @misc{ZancolliBakerBarlowetal.2016, author = {Zancolli, Giulia and Baker, Timothy G. and Barlow, Axel and Bradley, Rebecca K. and Calvete, Juan J. and Carter, Kimberley C. and de Jager, Kaylah and Owens, John Benjamin and Price, Jenny Forrester and Sanz, Libia and Scholes-Higham, Amy and Shier, Liam and Wood, Liam and W{\"u}ster, Catharine E. and W{\"u}ster, Wolfgang}, title = {Is hybridization a source of adaptive venom variation in rattlesnakes?}, series = {Toxins}, journal = {Toxins}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407595}, pages = {16}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Venomous snakes often display extensive variation in venom composition both between and within species. However, the mechanisms underlying the distribution of different toxins and venom types among populations and taxa remain insufficiently known. Rattlesnakes (Crotalus, Sistrurus) display extreme inter-and intraspecific variation in venom composition, centered particularly on the presence or absence of presynaptically neurotoxic phospholipases A2 such as Mojave toxin (MTX). Interspecific hybridization has been invoked as a mechanism to explain the distribution of these toxins across rattlesnakes, with the implicit assumption that they are adaptively advantageous. Here, we test the potential of adaptive hybridization as a mechanism for venom evolution by assessing the distribution of genes encoding the acidic and basic subunits of Mojave toxin across a hybrid zone between MTX-positive Crotalus scutulatus and MTX-negative C. viridis in southwestern New Mexico, USA. Analyses of morphology, mitochondrial and single copy-nuclear genes document extensive admixture within a narrow hybrid zone. The genes encoding the two MTX subunits are strictly linked, and found in most hybrids and backcrossed individuals, but not in C. viridis away from the hybrid zone. Presence of the genes is invariably associated with presence of the corresponding toxin in the venom. We conclude that introgression of highly lethal neurotoxins through hybridization is not necessarily favored by natural selection in rattlesnakes, and that even extensive hybridization may not lead to introgression of these genes into another species.}, language = {en} } @misc{MetinDungSchroeteretal.2018, author = {Metin, Ayse Duha and Dung, Nguyen Viet and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Guse, Bj{\"o}rn and Apel, Heiko and Kreibich, Heidi and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Merz, Bruno}, title = {How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk?}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1067}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-46879}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468790}, pages = {22}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the overall flood risk.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Krummenauer2022, author = {Krummenauer, Linda}, title = {Global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under different climate futures}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-55929}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-559294}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {xix, 161}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Heat and increasing ambient temperatures under climate change represent a serious threat to human health in cities. Heat exposure has been studied extensively at a global scale. Studies comparing a defined temperature threshold with the future daytime temperature during a certain period of time, had concluded an increase in threat to human health. Such findings however do not explicitly account for possible changes in future human heat adaptation and might even overestimate heat exposure. Thus, heat adaptation and its development is still unclear. Human heat adaptation refers to the local temperature to which populations are adjusted to. It can be inferred from the lowest point of the U- or V-shaped heat-mortality relationship (HMR), the Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT). While epidemiological studies inform on the MMT at the city scale for case studies, a general model applicable at the global scale to infer on temporal change in MMTs had not yet been realised. The conventional approach depends on data availability, their robustness, and on the access to daily mortality records at the city scale. Thorough analysis however must account for future changes in the MMT as heat adaptation happens partially passively. Human heat adaptation consists of two aspects: (1) the intensity of the heat hazard that is still tolerated by human populations, meaning the heat burden they can bear and (2) the wealth-induced technological, social and behavioural measures that can be employed to avoid heat exposure. The objective of this thesis is to investigate and quantify human heat adaptation among urban populations at a global scale under the current climate and to project future adaptation under climate change until the end of the century. To date, this has not yet been accomplished. The evaluation of global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under climate change comprises three levels of analysis. First, using the example of Germany, the MMT is calculated at the city level by applying the conventional method. Second, this thesis compiles a data pool of 400 urban MMTs to develop and train a new model capable of estimating MMTs on the basis of physical and socio-economic city characteristics using multivariate non-linear multivariate regression. The MMT is successfully described as a function of the current climate, the topography and the socio-economic standard, independently of daily mortality data for cities around the world. The city-specific MMT estimates represents a measure of human heat adaptation among the urban population. In a final third analysis, the model to derive human heat adaptation was adjusted to be driven by projected climate and socio-economic variables for the future. This allowed for estimation of the MMT and its change for 3 820 cities worldwide for different combinations of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways until 2100. The knowledge on the evolution of heat adaptation in the future is a novelty as mostly heat exposure and its future development had been researched. In this work, changes in heat adaptation and exposure were analysed jointly. A wide range of possible health-related outcomes up to 2100 was the result, of which two scenarios with the highest socio-economic developments but opposing strong warming levels were highlighted for comparison. Strong economic growth based upon fossil fuel exploitation is associated with a high gain in heat adaptation, but may not be able to compensate for the associated negative health effects due to increased heat exposure in 30\% to 40\% of the cities investigated caused by severe climate change. A slightly less strong, but sustainable growth brings moderate gains in heat adaptation but a lower heat exposure and exposure reductions in 80\% to 84\% of the cities in terms of frequency (number of days exceeding the MMT) and intensity (magnitude of the MMT exceedance) due to a milder global warming. Choosing a 2 ° C compatible development by 2100 would therefore lower the risk of heat-related mortality at the end of the century. In summary, this thesis makes diverse and multidisciplinary contributions to a deeper understanding of human adaptation to heat under the current and the future climate. It is one of the first studies to carry out a systematic and statistical analysis of urban characteristics which are useful as MMT drivers to establish a generalised model of human heat adaptation, applicable at the global level. A broad range of possible heat-related health options for various future scenarios was shown for the first time. This work is of relevance for the assessment of heat-health impacts in regions where mortality data are not accessible or missing. The results are useful for health care planning at the meso- and macro-level and to urban- and climate change adaptation planning. Lastly, beyond having met the posed objective, this thesis advances research towards a global future impact assessment of heat on human health by providing an alternative method of MMT estimation, that is spatially and temporally flexible in its application.}, language = {en} } @misc{UnterbergerHudsonBotzenetal.2018, author = {Unterberger, Christian and Hudson, Paul and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Schroeer, Katharina and Steininger, Karl W.}, title = {Future public sector flood risk and risk sharing arrangements}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {634}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-42462}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-424629}, pages = {11}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Climate change, along with socio-economic development, will increase the economic impacts of floods. While the factors that influence flood risk to private property have been extensively studied, the risk that natural disasters pose to public infrastructure and the resulting implications on public sector budgets, have received less attention. We address this gap by developing a two-staged model framework, which first assesses the flood risk to public infrastructure in Austria. Combining exposure and vulnerability information at the building level with inundation maps, we project an increase in riverine flood damage, which progressively burdens public budgets. Second, the risk estimates are integrated into an insurance model, which analyzes three different compensation arrangements in terms of the monetary burden they place on future governments' budgets and the respective volatility of payments. Formalized insurance compensation arrangements offer incentives for risk reduction measures, which lower the burden on public budgets by reducing the vulnerability of buildings that are exposed to flooding. They also significantly reduce the volatility of payments and thereby improve the predictability of flood damage expenditures. These features indicate that more formalized insurance arrangements are an improvement over the purely public compensation arrangement currently in place in Austria.}, language = {en} } @article{NdahSchulerDiehletal.2018, author = {Ndah, Hycenth Tim and Schuler, Johannes and Diehl, Katharina and Bateki, Christian and Sieber, Stefan and Knierim, Andrea}, title = {From dogmatic views on conservation agriculture adoption in Zambia towards adapting to context}, series = {International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability}, volume = {16}, journal = {International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability}, number = {2}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {1473-5903}, doi = {10.1080/14735903.2018.1447227}, pages = {228 -- 242}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Conservation Agriculture (CA) has been widely promoted in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as a sustainable agricultural practice, yet with debatable success. Most authors assume successful adoption, only if all three principles of CA are implemented: (1) minimum or zero tillage, (2) maintenance of a permanent soil cover, and (3) integration of crop rotations. Based on this strict definition, adoption has declined or remained stagnant. Presently, not much attention has been given to context-suited adaptation possibilities, and partial adoption has not been recognized as an entry point to full adoption. Furthermore, isolated success cases have not been analysed sufficiently. By applying the QAToCA approach based on focus group discussions complemented by semi-structured qualitative expert and farmer interviews, we assessed the reasons behind positive CA adaptation and adoption trends in Zambia. Main reasons behind Zambia's emerging success are (1) a positive institutional influence, (2) a systematic approach towards CA promotion - encouraging a stepwise adaptation and adoption, and (3) mobilization of strong marketing dynamics around CA. These findings could help to eventually adjust or redesign CA promotion activities. We argue for a careful shift from the 'dogmatic view' on adoption of CA as a packaged technology, towards adapting its principles to the small-scale farming context of SSA.}, language = {en} } @article{WeyrichLenzFickel2018, author = {Weyrich, Alexandra and Lenz, Dorina and Fickel, J{\"o}rns}, title = {Environmental Change-Dependent Inherited Epigenetic Response}, series = {GENES}, volume = {10}, journal = {GENES}, number = {1}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2073-4425}, doi = {10.3390/genes10010004}, pages = {15}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Epigenetic modifications are a mechanism conveying environmental information to subsequent generations via parental germ lines. Research on epigenetic responses to environmental changes in wild mammals has been widely neglected, as well as studies that compare responses to changes in different environmental factors. Here, we focused on the transmission of DNA methylation changes to naive male offspring after paternal exposure to either diet (~40\% less protein) or temperature increase (10 °C increased temperature). Because both experiments focused on the liver as the main metabolic and thermoregulation organ, we were able to decipher if epigenetic changes differed in response to different environmental changes. Reduced representation bisulfite sequencing (RRBS) revealed differentially methylated regions (DMRs) in annotated genomic regions in sons sired before (control) and after the fathers' treatments. We detected both a highly specific epigenetic response dependent on the environmental factor that had changed that was reflected in genes involved in specific metabolic pathways, and a more general response to changes in outer stimuli reflected by epigenetic modifications in a small subset of genes shared between both responses. Our results indicated that fathers prepared their offspring for specific environmental changes by paternally inherited epigenetic modifications, suggesting a strong paternal contribution to adaptive processes.}, language = {en} } @article{WeyrichJeschekSchrapersetal.2018, author = {Weyrich, Alexandra and Jeschek, Marie and Schrapers, Katharina T. and Lenz, Dorina and Chung, Tzu Hung and Ruebensam, Kathrin and Yasar, Sermin and Schneemann, Markus and Ortmann, Sylvia and Jewgenow, Katarina and Fickel, J{\"o}rns}, title = {Diet changes alter paternally inherited epigenetic pattern in male Wild guinea pigs}, series = {Environmental Epigenetics}, volume = {4}, journal = {Environmental Epigenetics}, number = {2}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {2058-5888}, doi = {10.1093/eep/dvy011}, pages = {12}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Epigenetic modifications, of which DNA methylation is the most stable, are a mechanism conveying environmental information to subsequent generations via parental germ lines. The paternal contribution to adaptive processes in the offspring might be crucial, but has been widely neglected in comparison to the maternal one. To address the paternal impact on the offspring's adaptability to changes in diet composition, we investigated if low protein diet (LPD) in F0 males caused epigenetic alterations in their subsequently sired sons. We therefore fed F0 male Wild guinea pigs with a diet lowered in protein content (LPD) and investigated DNA methylation in sons sired before and after their father's LPD treatment in both, liver and testis tissues. Our results point to a 'heritable epigenetic response' of the sons to the fathers' dietary change. Because we detected methylation changes also in the testis tissue, they are likely to be transmitted to the F2 generation. Gene-network analyses of differentially methylated genes in liver identified main metabolic pathways indicating a metabolic reprogramming ('metabolic shift'). Epigenetic mechanisms, allowing an immediate and inherited adaptation may thus be important for the survival of species in the context of a persistently changing environment, such as climate change.}, language = {en} } @misc{WeyrichJeschekSchrapersetal.2018, author = {Weyrich, Alexandra and Jeschek, Marie and Schrapers, Katharina T. and Lenz, Dorina and Chung, Tzu Hung and Ruebensam, Kathrin and Yasar, Sermin and Schneemann, Markus and Ortmann, Sylvia and Jewgenow, Katarina and Fickel, J{\"o}rns}, title = {Diet changes alter paternally inherited epigenetic pattern in male Wild guinea pigs}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1065}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-46003}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-460031}, pages = {14}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Epigenetic modifications, of which DNA methylation is the most stable, are a mechanism conveying environmental information to subsequent generations via parental germ lines. The paternal contribution to adaptive processes in the offspring might be crucial, but has been widely neglected in comparison to the maternal one. To address the paternal impact on the offspring's adaptability to changes in diet composition, we investigated if low protein diet (LPD) in F0 males caused epigenetic alterations in their subsequently sired sons. We therefore fed F0 male Wild guinea pigs with a diet lowered in protein content (LPD) and investigated DNA methylation in sons sired before and after their father's LPD treatment in both, liver and testis tissues. Our results point to a 'heritable epigenetic response' of the sons to the fathers' dietary change. Because we detected methylation changes also in the testis tissue, they are likely to be transmitted to the F2 generation. Gene-network analyses of differentially methylated genes in liver identified main metabolic pathways indicating a metabolic reprogramming ('metabolic shift'). Epigenetic mechanisms, allowing an immediate and inherited adaptation may thus be important for the survival of species in the context of a persistently changing environment, such as climate change.}, language = {en} } @misc{PrahlBoettleCostaetal.2018, author = {Prahl, Boris F. and Boettle, Markus and Costa, Lu{\´i}s F{\´i}l{\´i}pe Carvalho da and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen and Rybski, Diego}, title = {Damage and protection cost curves for coastal floods within the 600 largest European cities}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {938}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-45967}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-459672}, pages = {20}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The economic assessment of the impacts of storm surges and sea-level rise in coastal cities requires high-level information on the damage and protection costs associated with varying flood heights. We provide a systematically and consistently calculated dataset of macroscale damage and protection cost curves for the 600 largest European coastal cities opening the perspective for a wide range of applications. Offering the first comprehensive dataset to include the costs of dike protection, we provide the underpinning information to run comparative assessments of costs and benefits of coastal adaptation. Aggregate cost curves for coastal flooding at the city-level are commonly regarded as by-products of impact assessments and are generally not published as a standalone dataset. Hence, our work also aims at initiating a more critical discussion on the availability and derivation of cost curves.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Derežanin2023, author = {Derežanin, Lorena}, title = {Contribution of structural variation to adaptive evolution of mammalian genomes}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-59144}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-591443}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {188}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Following the extinction of dinosaurs, the great adaptive radiation of mammals occurred, giving rise to an astonishing ecological and phenotypic diversity of mammalian species. Even closely related species often inhabit vastly different habitats, where they encounter diverse environmental challenges and are exposed to different evolutionary pressures. As a response, mammals evolved various adaptive phenotypes over time, such as morphological, physiological and behavioural ones. Mammalian genomes vary in their content and structure and this variation represents the molecular mechanism for the long-term evolution of phenotypic variation. However, understanding this molecular basis of adaptive phenotypic variation is usually not straightforward. The recent development of sequencing technologies and bioinformatics tools has enabled a better insight into mammalian genomes. Through these advances, it was acknowledged that mammalian genomes differ more, both within and between species, as a consequence of structural variation compared to single-nucleotide differences. Structural variant types investigated in this thesis - such as deletion, duplication, inversion and insertion, represent a change in the structure of the genome, impacting the size, copy number, orientation and content of DNA sequences. Unlike short variants, structural variants can span multiple genes. They can alter gene dosage, and cause notable gene expression differences and subsequently phenotypic differences. Thus, they can lead to a more dramatic effect on the fitness (reproductive success) of individuals, local adaptation of populations and speciation. In this thesis, I investigated and evaluated the potential functional effect of structural variations on the genomes of mustelid species. To detect the genomic regions associated with phenotypic variation I assembled the first reference genome of the tayra (Eira barbara) relying on linked-read sequencing technology to achieve a high level of genome completeness important for reliable structural variant discovery. I then set up a bioinformatics pipeline to conduct a comparative genomic analysis and explore variation between mustelid species living in different environments. I found numerous genes associated with species-specific phenotypes related to diet, body condition and reproduction among others, to be impacted by structural variants. Furthermore, I investigated the effects of artificial selection on structural variants in mice selected for high fertility, increased body mass and high endurance. Through selective breeding of each mouse line, the desired phenotypes have spread within these populations, while maintaining structural variants specific to each line. In comparison to the control line, the litter size has doubled in the fertility lines, individuals in the high body mass lines have become considerably larger, and mice selected for treadmill performance covered substantially more distance. Structural variants were found in higher numbers in these trait-selected lines than in the control line when compared to the mouse reference genome. Moreover, we have found twice as many structural variants spanning protein-coding genes (specific to each line) in trait-selected lines. Several of these variants affect genes associated with selected phenotypic traits. These results imply that structural variation does indeed contribute to the evolution of the selected phenotypes and is heritable. Finally, I suggest a set of critical metrics of genomic data that should be considered for a stringent structural variation analysis as comparative genomic studies strongly rely on the contiguity and completeness of genome assemblies. Because most of the available data used to represent reference genomes of mammalian species is generated using short-read sequencing technologies, we may have incomplete knowledge of genomic features. Therefore, a cautious structural variation analysis is required to minimize the effect of technical constraints. The impact of structural variants on the adaptive evolution of mammalian genomes is slowly gaining more focus but it is still incorporated in only a small number of population studies. In my thesis, I advocate the inclusion of structural variants in studies of genomic diversity for a more comprehensive insight into genomic variation within and between species, and its effect on adaptive evolution.}, language = {en} } @article{HenschkeZecherMayeretal.2021, author = {Henschke, Jakob and Zecher, Mahli Megan and Mayer, Frank and Engel, Tilman}, title = {Contralateral repeated bout effect following preconditioning exercises}, series = {Sport sciences for health}, volume = {18}, journal = {Sport sciences for health}, number = {1}, publisher = {Soringer Italia}, address = {Milan}, issn = {1824-7490}, doi = {10.1007/s11332-021-00804-0}, pages = {1 -- 10}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Background Recent studies indicate the existence of a repeated bout effect on the contralateral untrained limb following eccentric and isometric contractions. Aims This review aims to summarize the evidence for magnitude, duration and differences of this effect following isometric and eccentric preconditioning exercises. Methods Medline, Cochrane, and Web of science were searched from January 1971 until September 2020. Randomized controlled trials, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies were identified by combining keywords and synonyms (e.g., "contralateral", "exercise", "preconditioning", "protective effect"). At least two of the following outcome parameters were mandatory for study inclusion: strength, muscle soreness, muscle swelling, limb circumference, inflammatory blood markers or protective index (relative change of aforementioned measures). Results After identifying 1979 articles, 13 studies were included. Most investigations examined elbow flexors and utilized eccentric isokinetic protocols to induce the contralateral repeated bout effect. The magnitude of protection was observed in four studies, smaller values of the contralateral when compared to the ipsilateral repeated bout effect were noted in three studies. The potential mechanism is thought to be of neural central nature since no differences in peripheral muscle activity were observed. Time course was examined in three investigations. One study showed a smaller protective effect following isometric preconditioning when compared to eccentric preconditioning exercises. Conclusions The contralateral repeated bout effect demonstrates a smaller magnitude and lasts shorter than the ipsilateral repeated bout effect. Future research should incorporate long-term controlled trials including larger populations to identify central mechanisms. This knowledge should be used in clinical practice to prepare immobilized limbs prospectively for an incremental load.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Bajerski2013, author = {Bajerski, Felizitas}, title = {Bacterial communities in glacier forefields of the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica : structure, development \& adaptation}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-67424}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Antarctic glacier forfields are extreme environments and pioneer sites for ecological succession. The Antarctic continent shows microbial community development as a natural laboratory because of its special environment, geographic isolation and little anthropogenic influence. Increasing temperatures due to global warming lead to enhanced deglaciation processes in cold-affected habitats and new terrain is becoming exposed to soil formation and accessible for microbial colonisation. This study aims to understand the structure and development of glacier forefield bacterial communities, especially how soil parameters impact the microorganisms and how those are adapted to the extreme conditions of the habitat. To this effect, a combination of cultivation experiments, molecular, geophysical and geochemical analysis was applied to examine two glacier forfields of the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica. Culture-independent molecular tools such as terminal restriction length polymorphism (T-RFLP), clone libraries and quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) were used to determine bacterial diversity and distribution. Cultivation of yet unknown species was carried out to get insights in the physiology and adaptation of the microorganisms. Adaptation strategies of the microorganisms were studied by determining changes of the cell membrane phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) inventory of an isolated bacterium in response to temperature and pH fluctuations and by measuring enzyme activity at low temperature in environmental soil samples. The two studied glacier forefields are extreme habitats characterised by low temperatures, low water availability and small oligotrophic nutrient pools and represent sites of different bacterial succession in relation to soil parameters. The investigated sites showed microbial succession at an early step of soil formation near the ice tongue in comparison to closely located but rather older and more developed soil from the forefield. At the early step the succession is influenced by a deglaciation-dependent areal shift of soil parameters followed by a variable and prevalently depth-related distribution of the soil parameters that is driven by the extreme Antarctic conditions. The dominant taxa in the glacier forefields are Actinobacteria, Acidobacteria, Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Cyanobacteria and Chloroflexi. The connection of soil characteristics with bacterial community structure showed that soil parameter and soil formation along the glacier forefield influence the distribution of certain phyla. In the early step of succession the relative undifferentiated bacterial diversity reflects the undifferentiated soil development and has a high potential to shift according to past and present environmental conditions. With progressing development environmental constraints such as water or carbon limitation have a greater influence. Adapting the culturing conditions to the cold and oligotrophic environment, the number of culturable heterotrophic bacteria reached up to 108 colony forming units per gram soil and 148 isolates were obtained. Two new psychrotolerant bacteria, Herbaspirillum psychrotolerans PB1T and Chryseobacterium frigidisoli PB4T, were characterised in detail and described as novel species in the family of Oxalobacteraceae and Flavobacteriaceae, respectively. The isolates are able to grow at low temperatures tolerating temperature fluctuations and they are not specialised to a certain substrate, therefore they are well-adapted to the cold and oligotrophic environment. The adaptation strategies of the microorganisms were analysed in environmental samples and cultures focussing on extracellular enzyme activity at low temperature and PLFA analyses. Extracellular phosphatases (pH 11 and pH 6.5), β-glucosidase, invertase and urease activity were detected in the glacier forefield soils at low temperature (14°C) catalysing the conversion of various compounds providing necessary substrates and may further play a role in the soil formation and total carbon turnover of the habitat. The PLFA analysis of the newly isolated species C. frigidisoli showed that the cold-adapted strain develops different strategies to maintain the cell membrane function under changing environmental conditions by altering the PLFA inventory at different temperatures and pH values. A newly discovered fatty acid, which was not found in any other microorganism so far, significantly increased at decreasing temperature and low pH and thus plays an important role in the adaption of C. frigidisoli. This work gives insights into the diversity, distribution and adaptation mechanisms of microbial communities in oligotrophic cold-affected soils and shows that Antarctic glacier forefields are suitable model systems to study bacterial colonisation in connection to soil formation.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Sterzel2019, author = {Sterzel, Till}, title = {Analyzing global typologies of socio-ecological vulnerability}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-42883}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-428837}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {137}, year = {2019}, abstract = {On a planetary scale human populations need to adapt to both socio-economic and environmental problems amidst rapid global change. This holds true for coupled human-environment (socio-ecological) systems in rural and urban settings alike. Two examples are drylands and urban coasts. Such socio-ecological systems have a global distribution. Therefore, advancing the knowledge base for identifying socio-ecological adaptation needs with local vulnerability assessments alone is infeasible: The systems cover vast areas, while funding, time, and human resources for local assessments are limited. They are lacking in low an middle-income countries (LICs and MICs) in particular. But places in a specific socio-ecological system are not only unique and complex - they also exhibit similarities. A global patchwork of local rural drylands vulnerability assessments of human populations to socio-ecological and environmental problems has already been reduced to a limited number of problem structures, which typically cause vulnerability. However, the question arises whether this is also possible in urban socio-ecological systems. The question also arises whether these typologies provide added value in research beyond global change. Finally, the methodology employed for drylands needs refining and standardizing to increase its uptake in the scientific community. In this dissertation, I set out to fill these three gaps in research. The geographical focus in my dissertation is on LICs and MICs, which generally have lower capacities to adapt, and greater adaptation needs, regarding rapid global change. Using a spatially explicit indicator-based methodology, I combine geospatial and clustering methods to identify typical configurations of key factors in case studies causing vulnerability to human populations in two specific socio-ecological systems. Then I use statistical and analytical methods to interpret and appraise both the typical configurations and the global typologies they constitute. First, I improve the indicator-based methodology and then reanalyze typical global problem structures of socio-ecological drylands vulnerability with seven indicator datasets. The reanalysis confirms the key tenets and produces a more realistic and nuanced typology of eight spatially explicit problem structures, or vulnerability profiles: Two new profiles with typically high natural resource endowment emerge, in which overpopulation has led to medium or high soil erosion. Second, I determine whether the new drylands typology and its socio-ecological vulnerability concept advance a thematically linked scientific debate in human security studies: what drives violent conflict in drylands? The typology is a much better predictor for conflict distribution and incidence in drylands than regression models typically used in peace research. Third, I analyze global problem structures typically causing vulnerability in an urban socio-ecological system - the rapidly urbanizing coastal fringe (RUCF) - with eleven indicator datasets. The RUCF also shows a robust typology, and its seven profiles show huge asymmetries in vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The fastest population increase, lowest income, most ineffective governments, most prevalent poverty, and lowest adaptive capacity are all typically stacked in two profiles in LICs. This shows that beyond local case studies tropical cyclones and/or coastal flooding are neither stalling rapid population growth, nor urban expansion, in the RUCF. I propose entry points for scaling up successful vulnerability reduction strategies in coastal cities within the same vulnerability profile. This dissertation shows that patchworks of local vulnerability assessments can be generalized to structure global socio-ecological vulnerabilities in both rural and urban socio-ecological systems according to typical problems. In terms of climate-related extreme events in the RUCF, conflicting problem structures and means to deal with them are threatening to widen the development gap between LICs and high-income countries unless successful vulnerability reduction measures are comprehensively scaled up. The explanatory power for human security in drylands warrants further applications of the methodology beyond global environmental change research in the future. Thus, analyzing spatially explicit global typologies of socio-ecological vulnerability is a useful complement to local assessments: The typologies provide entry points for where to consider which generic measures to reduce typical problem structures - including the countless places without local assessments. This can save limited time and financial resources for adaptation under rapid global change.}, language = {en} } @article{KreibichDiBaldassarreVorogushynetal.2017, author = {Kreibich, Heidi and Di Baldassarre, Giuliano and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. and Apel, Heiko and Aronica, Giuseppe T. and Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten and Bouwer, Laurens M. and Bubeck, Philip and Caloiero, Tommaso and Chinh, Do T. and Cortes, Maria and Gain, Animesh K. and Giampa, Vincenzo and Kuhlicke, Christian and Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W. and Llasat, Maria Carmen and Mard, Johanna and Matczak, Piotr and Mazzoleni, Maurizio and Molinari, Daniela and Dung, Nguyen V. and Petrucci, Olga and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Slager, Kymo and Thieken, Annegret and Ward, Philip J. and Merz, Bruno}, title = {Adaptation to flood risk}, series = {Earth's Future}, volume = {5}, journal = {Earth's Future}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2328-4277}, doi = {10.1002/2017EF000606}, pages = {953 -- 965}, year = {2017}, abstract = {As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socioeconomic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur.}, language = {en} }