@article{KaiserWehrhanWerneretal.2012, author = {Kaiser, Thomas and Wehrhan, Marc and Werner, Armin and Sommer, Michael}, title = {Regionalizing ecological moisture levels and groundwater levels in grassland areas using thermal remote sensing}, series = {Grassland science}, volume = {58}, journal = {Grassland science}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Malden}, issn = {1744-6961}, doi = {10.1111/j.1744-697X.2011.00240.x}, pages = {42 -- 52}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Site-specific soil moisture and groundwater levels are key input parameters for ecological modeling. Obtaining such information in a comprehensive manner is difficult for large regions. We studied a floodplain region in the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany, to examine the degree to which the average depth of groundwater tables can be derived from surface temperatures obtained by the ASTER radiospectrometer (spatial resolution of 90 m per pixel). A floristic ecological indicator representing the site-specific moisture level was applied to develop a proxy between the thermal satellite data and groundwater table depth. The use of spring scenes (late April to early May) from 2 years proved to be well suited for minimizing the effects of weather and land use. Vegetation surveys along transects that were 2 m wide across the pixel diagonals allowed for the calculation of average ecological moisture values of pixel-sites by applying Ellenberg-numbers. These values were used to calibrate the satellite data locally. There was a close relationship between surface temperature and the average ecological moisture value (R2 = 0.73). Average ecological moisture values were highly indicative of the average groundwater levels during a 7-year measurement series (R2 = 0.93). Satellite-supported thermal data from spring were suitable for estimating the average groundwater levels of low-lying grasslands on a larger scale. Ecological moisture values from the transect surveys effectively allowed the incorporation of relief heterogeneity within the thermal grid and the establishment of the correlation between thermal data and average groundwater table depth. Regression functions were used to produce a map of groundwater levels at the study site.}, language = {en} } @article{LohmannTietjenBlaumetal.2012, author = {Lohmann, Dirk and Tietjen, Britta and Blaum, Niels and Joubert, David F. and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Shifting thresholds and changing degradation patterns: climate change effects on the simulated long-term response of a semi-arid savanna to grazing}, series = {Journal of applied ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society}, volume = {49}, journal = {Journal of applied ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society}, number = {4}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0021-8901}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2664.2012.02157.x}, pages = {814 -- 823}, year = {2012}, abstract = {1. The complex, nonlinear response of dryland systems to grazing and climatic variations is a challenge to management of these lands. Predicted climatic changes will impact the desertification of drylands under domestic livestock production. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the response of drylands to grazing under climate change. 2. We enhanced and parameterized an ecohydrological savanna model to assess the impacts of a range of climate change scenarios on the response of a semi-arid African savanna to grazing. We focused on the effects of temperature and CO2 level increase in combination with changes in inter- and intra-annual precipitation patterns on the long-term dynamics of three major plant functional types. 3. We found that the capacity of the savanna to sustain livestock grazing was strongly influenced by climate change. Increased mean annual precipitation and changes in intra-annual precipitation pattern have the potential to slightly increase carrying capacities of the system. In contrast, decreased precipitation, higher interannual variation and temperature increase are leading to a severe decline of carrying capacities owing to losses of the perennial grass biomass. 4. Semi-arid rangelands will be at lower risk of shrub encroachment and encroachment will be less intense under future climatic conditions. This finding holds in spite of elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 and irrespective of changes in precipitation pattern, because of the drought sensitivity of germination and establishment of encroaching species. 5. Synthesis and applications. Changes in livestock carrying capacities, both positive and negative, mainly depend on the highly uncertain future rainfall conditions. However, independent of the specific changes, shrub encroachment becomes less likely and in many cases less severe. Thus, managers of semi-arid rangelands should shift their focus from woody vegetation towards perennial grass species as indicators for rangeland degradation. Furthermore, the resulting reduced competition from woody vegetation has the potential to facilitate ecosystem restoration measures such as re-introduction of desirable plant species that are only little promising or infeasible under current climatic conditions. On a global scale, the reductions in standing biomass resulting from altered degradation dynamics of semi-arid rangelands can have negative impacts on carbon sequestration.}, language = {en} } @misc{GraeffZeheBlumeetal.2012, author = {Graeff, T. and Zehe, E. and Blume, T. and Francke, Till and Schroeder, B.}, title = {Predicting event response in a nested catchment with generalized linear models and a distributed watershed model}, series = {HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES}, volume = {26}, journal = {HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES}, number = {24}, publisher = {WILEY-BLACKWELL}, address = {HOBOKEN}, issn = {0885-6087}, doi = {10.1002/hyp.8463}, pages = {3749 -- 3769}, year = {2012}, abstract = {This study focuses on the prediction of event-based runoff coefficients (an important descriptor of flood events) for nested catchments up to an area of 50?km(2) in the Eastern Ore Mountains. The four main objectives of the study are (i) the prediction of runoff coefficients with the statistical method of generalized linear models, (ii) the comparison of the results of the linear models with estimates of a distributed conceptual model, (iii) the comparison of the dynamics of observed soil moisture and simulated saturation deficit of the hydrological model and (iv) the analysis of the relationship between runoff coefficient and observed and simulated wetness. Different predictor variables were selected to describe the runoff coefficient and were differentiated into variables describing the catchment\’s antecedent wetness and meteorological forcing. The best statistical model was estimated in a stepwise approach on the basis of hierarchical partitioning, an exhaustive search algorithm and model validation with jackknifing. We then applied the rainfall runoff model WaSiM ETH to predict the runoff processes for the two larger catchments. Locally measured small-scale soil moisture (acquired at a scale of four to five magnitudes smaller than the catchment) was identified as one of the key predictor variables for the estimation of the runoff coefficient with the general linear model. It was found that the relationship betweenobserved and simulated (using WaSiM ETH) wetness is strongly hysteretic. The runoff coefficients derived from the rainfall runoff simulations systematically underestimate the observed values. Copyright (C) 2012 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.}, language = {en} }