@techreport{ŠedovaČizmaziovaCook2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Šedov{\´a}, Barbora and Čizmaziov{\´a}, Lucia and Cook, Athene}, title = {A meta-analysis of climate migration literature}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {29}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-49982}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-499827}, pages = {83}, year = {2021}, abstract = {The large literature that aims to find evidence of climate migration delivers mixed findings. This meta-regression analysis i) summarizes direct links between adverse climatic events and migration, ii) maps patterns of climate migration, and iii) explains the variation in outcomes. Using a set of limited dependent variable models, we meta-analyze thus-far the most comprehensive sample of 3,625 estimates from 116 original studies and produce novel insights on climate migration. We find that extremely high temperatures and drying conditions increase migration. We do not find a significant effect of sudden-onset events. Climate migration is most likely to emerge due to contemporaneous events, to originate in rural areas and to take place in middle-income countries, internally, to cities. The likelihood to become trapped in affected areas is higher for women and in low-income countries, particularly in Africa. We uniquely quantify how pitfalls typical for the broader empirical climate impact literature affect climate migration findings. We also find evidence of different publication biases.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Spaeth2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Sp{\"a}th, Maximilian}, title = {It's me again… Ask Avoidance and the Dynamics of Charitable Giving}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {38}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-52099}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-520991}, pages = {25}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Charities typically ask potential donors repeatedly for a donation. These repeated requests might trigger avoidance behavior. Considering that, this paper analyzes the impact of offering an ask avoidance option on charitable giving. In a proposed utility framework, the avoidance option decreases the social pressure to donate. At the same time, it induces feelings of gratitude toward the fundraiser, which may lead to a reciprocal increase in donations. The results of a lab experiment designed to disentangle the two channels show no negative impact of the option to avoid repeated asking on donations. Instead, the full model indicates a positive impact of the reciprocity channel. This finding suggests that it might be beneficial for charities to introduce an ask avoidance option during high-frequency fundraising campaigns.}, language = {en} } @techreport{Mena2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Mena, Wogene Berhanu}, title = {Civilizational hexagon as a pathway to conflict management}, series = {State, Law, and Politics - Research and Discussion Papers}, journal = {State, Law, and Politics - Research and Discussion Papers}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam}, address = {Potsdam}, issn = {2509-6974}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-51669}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-516695}, pages = {21}, year = {2021}, abstract = {This paper examines the attempts of implement-ing components of the concept called Civiliza-tional Hexagon as a pathway to civilizing conflict in the Sub-Saharan Africa in the post-Cold War period. Despite significant decline in the violent conflict and substantial progress socio-economic aspects in the period, most states in the region have been facing challenges in their way to civilize conflict related to absence of inclusive political system, weak state unable to monopolize the use of violence in its territory, and social injustice. On the other hand, states like Botswana and Mauritius managed to civilize conflict through significant improvement in democratic consolidation. Besides their relative success in implementing six elements, these states enabled to integrate traditional institutions with modern state apparatus that helped them to fill the gap created as result of exogenous state formation process and the resulting unfinished nation-building project. Additionally, traditional institutions contributed to managing diversity.}, language = {en} } @techreport{MarcusSiedlerZiebarth2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Marcus, Jan and Siedler, Thomas and Ziebarth, Nicolas R.}, title = {The Long-Run Effects of Sports Club Vouchers for Primary School Children}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {34}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-50897}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-508978}, pages = {72}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Starting in 2009, the German state of Saxony distributed sports club membership vouchers among all 33,000 third graders in the state. The policy's objective was to encourage them to develop a long-term habit of exercising. In 2018, we carried out a large register-based survey among several cohorts in Saxony and two neighboring states. Our difference-in-differences estimations show that, even after a decade, awareness of the voucher program was significantly higher in the treatment group. We also find that youth received and redeemed the vouchers. However, we do not find significant short- or long-term effects on sports club membership, physical activity, overweightness, or motor skills.}, language = {en} } @techreport{LudolphŠedova2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Ludolph, Lars and Šedov{\´a}, Barbora}, title = {Global food prices, local weather and migration in Sub-Saharan Africa}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {26}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-49494}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-494946}, pages = {53}, year = {2021}, abstract = {In this paper, we study the effect of exogenous global crop price changes on migration from agricultural and non-agricultural households in Sub-Saharan Africa. We show that, similar to the effect of positive local weather shocks, the effect of a locally-relevant global crop price increase on household out-migration depends on the initial household wealth. Higher international producer prices relax the budget constraint of poor agricultural households and facilitate migration. The order of magnitude of a standardized price effect is approx. one third of the standardized effect of a local weather shock. Unlike positive weather shocks, which mostly facilitate internal rural-urban migration, positive income shocks through rising producer prices only increase migration to neighboring African countries, likely due to the simultaneous decrease in real income in nearby urban areas. Finally, we show that while higher producer prices induce conflict, conflict does not play a role for the household decision to send a member as a labor migrant.}, language = {en} } @techreport{KritikosSchierschStiel2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Kritikos, Alexander and Schiersch, Alexander and Stiel, Caroline}, title = {The productivity puzzle in business services}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {37}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-51453}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-514536}, pages = {37}, year = {2021}, abstract = {In Germany, the productivity of professional services, a sector dominated by micro and small firms, declined by 40 percent between 1995 and 2014. This productivity decline also holds true for professional services in other European countries. Using a German firm-level dataset of 700,000 observations between 2003 and 2017, we analyze this largely uncovered phenomenon among professional services, the 4th largest sector in the EU15 business economy, which provide important intermediate services for the rest of the economy. We show that changes in the value chain explain about half of the decline and the increase in part-time employment is a further minor part of the decline. In contrast to expectations, the entry of micro and small firms, despite their lower productivity levels, is not responsible for the decline. We also cannot confirm the conjecture that weakening competition allows unproductive firms to remain in the market.}, language = {en} } @techreport{HaenselFranksKalkuhletal.2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {H{\"a}nsel, Martin C. and Franks, Max and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Edenhofer, Ottmar}, title = {Optimal carbon taxation and horizontal equity}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {28}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-49812}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-498128}, pages = {51}, year = {2021}, abstract = {We develop a model of optimal carbon taxation and redistribution taking into account horizontal equity concerns by considering heterogeneous energy efficiencies. By deriving first- and second-best rules for policy instruments including carbon taxes, transfers and energy subsidies, we then investigate analytically how horizontal equity is considered in the social welfare maximizing tax structure. We calibrate the model to German household data and a 30 percent emission reduction goal. Our results show that energy-intensive households should receive more redistributive resources than energy-efficient households if and only if social inequality aversion is sufficiently high. We further find that redistribution of carbon tax revenue via household-specific transfers is the first-best policy. Equal per-capita transfers do not suffer from informational problems, but increase mitigation costs by around 15 percent compared to the first- best for unity inequality aversion. Adding renewable energy subsidies or non-linear energy subsidies, reduces mitigation costs further without relying on observability of households' energy efficiency.}, language = {en} } @techreport{HinzStammannWanner2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Hinz, Julian and Stammann, Amrei and Wanner, Joschka}, title = {State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Extensive Margin of Trade}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-51191}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-511919}, pages = {62}, year = {2021}, abstract = {We study the role and drivers of persistence in the extensive margin of bilateral trade. Motivated by a stylized heterogeneous firms model of international trade with market entry costs, we consider dynamic three-way fixed effects binary choice models and study the corresponding incidental parameter problem. The standard maximum likelihood estimator is consistent under asymptotics where all panel dimensions grow at a constant rate, but it has an asymptotic bias in its limiting distribution, invalidating inference even in situations where the bias appears to be small. Thus, we propose two different bias-corrected estimators. Monte Carlo simulations confirm their desirable statistical properties. We apply these estimators in a reassessment of the most commonly studied determinants of the extensive margin of trade. Both true state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity contribute considerably to trade persistence and taking this persistence into account matters significantly in identifying the effects of trade policies on the extensive margin.}, language = {en} } @techreport{GraeberSchikora2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Graeber, Daniel and Schikora, Felicitas}, title = {Hate is too great a burden to bear}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {31}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-50797}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-507972}, pages = {53}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Against a background of increasing violence against non-natives, we estimate the effect of hate crime on refugees' mental health in Germany. For this purpose, we combine two datasets: administrative records on xenophobic crime against refugee shelters by the Federal Criminal Office and the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees. We apply a regression discontinuity in time design to estimate the effect of interest. Our results indicate that hate crime has a substantial negative effect on several mental health indicators, including the Mental Component Summary score and the Patient Health Questionnaire-4 score. The effects are stronger for refugees with closer geographic proximity to the focal hate crime and refugees with low country-specific human capital. While the estimated effect is only transitory, we argue that negative mental health shocks during the critical period after arrival have important long-term consequences. Keywords: Mental health, hate crime, migration, refugees, human capital.}, language = {en} } @techreport{GraeberKritikosSeebauer2021, type = {Working Paper}, author = {Graeber, Daniel and Kritikos, Alexander and Seebauer, Johannes}, title = {COVID-19: a crisis of the female self-employed}, series = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, journal = {CEPA Discussion Papers}, number = {27}, issn = {2628-653X}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-49810}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-498108}, pages = {72}, year = {2021}, abstract = {We investigate how the economic consequences of the pandemic, and of the government-mandated measures to contain its spread, affect the self-employed - particularly women - in Germany. For our analysis, we use representative, real-time survey data in which respondents were asked about their situation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings indicate that among the self-employed, who generally face a higher likelihood of income losses due to COVID-19 than employees, women are 35\% more likely to experience income losses than their male counterparts. Conversely, we do not find a comparable gender gap among employees. Our results further suggest that the gender gap among the self-employed is largely explained by the fact that women disproportionately work in industries that are more severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis of potential mechanisms reveals that women are significantly more likely to be impacted by government-imposed restrictions, i.e. the regulation of opening hours. We conclude that future policy measures intending to mitigate the consequences of such shocks should account for this considerable variation in economic hardship.}, language = {en} }