@article{KatzenbergerLevermannScheweetal.2022, author = {Katzenberger, Anja and Levermann, Anders and Schewe, Jacob and Pongratz, Julia}, title = {Intensification of very wet monsoon seasons in India under global warming}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {49}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, number = {15}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1029/2022GL098856}, pages = {10}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Rainfall-intense summer monsoon seasons on the Indian subcontinent that are exceeding long-term averages cause widespread floods and landslides. Here we show that the latest generation of coupled climate models robustly project an intensification of very rainfall-intense seasons (June-September). Under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP5-8.5, very wet monsoon seasons as observed in only 5 years in the period 1965-2015 are projected to occur 8 times more often in 2050-2100 in the multi-model average. Under SSP2-4.5, these seasons become only a factor of 6 times more frequent, showing that even modest efforts to mitigate climate change can have a strong impact on the frequency of very strong rainfall seasons. Besides, we find that the increasing risk of extreme seasonal rainfall is accompanied by a shift from days with light rainfall to days with moderate or heavy rainfall. Additionally, the number of wet days is projected to increase.}, language = {en} } @article{LeinsGrimmDrechsler2022, author = {Leins, Johannes A. and Grimm, Volker and Drechsler, Martin}, title = {Large-scale PVA modeling of insects in cultivated grasslands}, series = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, number = {7}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2045-7758}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.9063}, pages = {17}, year = {2022}, abstract = {In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on the severity of climate change in subregions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60-year periods (2020-2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 x 250 m(2)) scale in 107 subregions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections, and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many subregions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle.}, language = {en} } @article{GuzmanAriasSamprognaMohorMendiondo2022, author = {Guzman Arias, Diego Alejandro and Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme and Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario}, title = {Multi-driver ensemble to evaluate the water utility business interruption cost induced by hydrological drought risk scenarios in Brazil}, series = {Urban water journal}, journal = {Urban water journal}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {1573-062X}, doi = {10.1080/1573062X.2022.2058564}, pages = {15}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Climate change and increasing water demand in urban environments necessitate planning water utility companies' finances. Traditionally, methods to estimate the direct water utility business interruption costs (WUBIC) caused by droughts have not been clearly established. We propose a multi-driver assessment method. We project the water yield using a hydrological model driven by regional climate models under radiative forcing scenarios. We project water demand under stationary and non-stationary conditions to estimate drought severity and duration, which are linked with pricing policies recently adopted by the Sao Paulo Water Utility Company. The results showed water insecurity. The non-stationary trend imposed larger differences in the drought resilience financial gap, suggesting that the uncertainties of WUBIC derived from demand and climate models are greater than those associated with radiative forcing scenarios. As populations increase, proactively controlling demand is recommended to avoid or minimize reactive policy changes during future drought events, repeating recent financial impacts.}, language = {en} } @article{BoehnkeKrehlMoermannetal.2022, author = {B{\"o}hnke, Denise and Krehl, Alice and Moermann, Kai and Volk, Rebekka and L{\"u}tzkendorf, Thomas and Naber, Elias and Becker, Ronja and Norra, Stefan}, title = {Mapping urban green and its ecosystem services at microscale-a methodological approach for climate adaptation and biodiversity}, series = {Sustainability / Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)}, volume = {14}, journal = {Sustainability / Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)}, number = {15}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2071-1050}, doi = {10.3390/su14159029}, pages = {26}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The current awareness of the high importance of urban green leads to a stronger need for tools to comprehensively represent urban green and its benefits. A common scientific approach is the development of urban ecosystem services (UES) based on remote sensing methods at the city or district level. Urban planning, however, requires fine-grained data that match local management practices. Hence, this study linked local biotope and tree mapping methods to the concept of ecosystem services. The methodology was tested in an inner-city district in SW Germany, comparing publicly accessible areas and non-accessible courtyards. The results provide area-specific [m(2)] information on the green inventory at the microscale, whereas derived stock and UES indicators form the basis for comparative analyses regarding climate adaptation and biodiversity. In the case study, there are ten times more micro-scale green spaces in private courtyards than in the public space, as well as twice as many trees. The approach transfers a scientific concept into municipal planning practice, enables the quantitative assessment of urban green at the microscale and illustrates the importance for green stock data in private areas to enhance decision support in urban development. Different aspects concerning data collection and data availability are critically discussed.}, language = {en} } @article{LiSpangenbergSchicksetal.2022, author = {Li, Zhen and Spangenberg, Erik and Schicks, Judith Maria and Kempka, Thomas}, title = {Numerical Simulation of Coastal Sub-Permafrost Gas Hydrate Formation in the Mackenzie Delta, Canadian Arctic}, series = {Energies}, volume = {15}, journal = {Energies}, number = {14}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {1996-1073}, doi = {10.3390/en15144986}, pages = {25}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The Mackenzie Delta (MD) is a permafrost-bearing region along the coasts of the Canadian Arctic which exhibits high sub-permafrost gas hydrate (GH) reserves. The GH occurring at the Mallik site in the MD is dominated by thermogenic methane (CH4), which migrated from deep conventional hydrocarbon reservoirs, very likely through the present fault systems. Therefore, it is assumed that fluid flow transports dissolved CH4 upward and out of the deeper overpressurized reservoirs via the existing polygonal fault system and then forms the GH accumulations in the Kugmallit-Mackenzie Bay Sequences. We investigate the feasibility of this mechanism with a thermo-hydraulic-chemical numerical model, representing a cross section of the Mallik site. We present the first simulations that consider permafrost formation and thawing, as well as the formation of GH accumulations sourced from the upward migrating CH4-rich formation fluid. The simulation results show that temperature distribution, as well as the thickness and base of the ice-bearing permafrost are consistent with corresponding field observations. The primary driver for the spatial GH distribution is the permeability of the host sediments. Thus, the hypothesis on GH formation by dissolved CH4 originating from deeper geological reservoirs is successfully validated. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that the permafrost has been substantially heated to 0.8-1.3 degrees C, triggered by the global temperature increase of about 0.44 degrees C and further enhanced by the Arctic Amplification effect at the Mallik site from the early 1970s to the mid-2000s.}, language = {en} } @article{RolphOverduinRavensetal.2022, author = {Rolph, Rebecca and Overduin, Pier Paul and Ravens, Thomas and Lantuit, Hugues and Langer, Moritz}, title = {ArcticBeach v1.0}, series = {Frontiers in Earth Science}, volume = {10}, journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science}, publisher = {Frontiers Media}, address = {Lausanne}, issn = {2296-6463}, doi = {10.3389/feart.2022.962208}, pages = {19}, year = {2022}, abstract = {In the Arctic, air temperatures are increasing and sea ice is declining, resulting in larger waves and a longer open water season, all of which intensify the thaw and erosion of ice-rich coasts. Climate change has been shown to increase the rate of Arctic coastal erosion, causing problems for Arctic cultural heritage, existing industrial, military, and civil infrastructure, as well as changes in nearshore biogeochemistry. Numerical models that reproduce historical and project future Arctic erosion rates are necessary to understand how further climate change will affect these problems, and no such model yet exists to simulate the physics of erosion on a pan-Arctic scale. We have coupled a bathystrophic storm surge model to a simplified physical erosion model of a permafrost coastline. This Arctic erosion model, called ArcticBeach v1.0, is a first step toward a physical parameterization of Arctic shoreline erosion for larger-scale models. It is forced by wind speed and direction, wave period and height, sea surface temperature, all of which are masked during times of sea ice cover near the coastline. Model tuning requires observed historical retreat rates (at least one value), as well as rough nearshore bathymetry. These parameters are already available on a pan-Arctic scale. The model is validated at three study sites at 1) Drew Point (DP), Alaska, 2) Mamontovy Khayata (MK), Siberia, and 3) Veslebogen Cliffs, Svalbard. Simulated cumulative retreat rates for DP and MK respectively (169 and 170 m) over the time periods studied at each site (2007-2016, and 1995-2018) are found to the same order of magnitude as observed cumulative retreat (172 and 120 m). The rocky Veslebogen cliffs have small observed cumulative retreat rates (0.05 m over 2014-2016), and our model was also able to reproduce this same order of magnitude of retreat (0.08 m). Given the large differences in geomorphology between the study sites, this study provides a proof-of-concept that ArcticBeach v1.0 can be applied on very different permafrost coastlines. ArcticBeach v1.0 provides a promising starting point to project retreat of Arctic shorelines, or to evaluate historical retreat in places that have had few observations.}, language = {en} } @article{MtilatilaBronstertVormoor2022, author = {Mtilatila, Lucy Mphatso Ng'ombe and Bronstert, Axel and Vormoor, Klaus Josef}, title = {Temporal evaluation and projections of meteorological droughts in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin, Southeast Africa}, series = {Frontiers in water}, volume = {4}, journal = {Frontiers in water}, publisher = {Frontiers Media}, address = {Lausanne}, issn = {2624-9375}, doi = {10.3389/frwa.2022.1041452}, pages = {16}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The study examined the potential future changes of drought characteristics in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin in Southeast Africa. This region strongly depends on water resources to generate electricity and food. Future projections (considering both moderate and high emission scenarios) of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of 16 bias-corrected climate model combinations were blended with a scenario-neutral response surface approach to analyses changes in: (i) the meteorological conditions, (ii) the meteorological water balance, and (iii) selected drought characteristics such as drought intensity, drought months, and drought events, which were derived from the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index. Changes were analyzed for a near-term (2021-2050) and far-term period (2071-2100) with reference to 1976-2005. The effect of bias-correction (i.e., empirical quantile mapping) on the ability of the climate model ensemble to reproduce observed drought characteristics as compared to raw climate projections was also investigated. Results suggest that the bias-correction improves the climate models in terms of reproducing temperature and precipitation statistics but not drought characteristics. Still, despite the differences in the internal structures and uncertainties that exist among the climate models, they all agree on an increase of meteorological droughts in the future in terms of higher drought intensity and longer events. Drought intensity is projected to increase between +25 and +50\% during 2021-2050 and between +131 and +388\% during 2071-2100. This translates into +3 to +5, and +7 to +8 more drought months per year during both periods, respectively. With longer lasting drought events, the number of drought events decreases. Projected droughts based on the high emission scenario are 1.7 times more severe than droughts based on the moderate scenario. That means that droughts in this region will likely become more severe in the coming decades. Despite the inherent high uncertainties of climate projections, the results provide a basis in planning and (water-)managing activities for climate change adaptation measures in Malawi. This is of particular relevance for water management issues referring hydro power generation and food production, both for rain-fed and irrigated agriculture.}, language = {en} } @misc{MtilatilaBronstertVormoor2022, author = {Mtilatila, Lucy Mphatso Ng'ombe and Bronstert, Axel and Vormoor, Klaus Josef}, title = {Temporal evaluation and projections of meteorological droughts in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin, Southeast Africa}, series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1287}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-57128}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-571284}, pages = {16}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The study examined the potential future changes of drought characteristics in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin in Southeast Africa. This region strongly depends on water resources to generate electricity and food. Future projections (considering both moderate and high emission scenarios) of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of 16 bias-corrected climate model combinations were blended with a scenario-neutral response surface approach to analyses changes in: (i) the meteorological conditions, (ii) the meteorological water balance, and (iii) selected drought characteristics such as drought intensity, drought months, and drought events, which were derived from the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index. Changes were analyzed for a near-term (2021-2050) and far-term period (2071-2100) with reference to 1976-2005. The effect of bias-correction (i.e., empirical quantile mapping) on the ability of the climate model ensemble to reproduce observed drought characteristics as compared to raw climate projections was also investigated. Results suggest that the bias-correction improves the climate models in terms of reproducing temperature and precipitation statistics but not drought characteristics. Still, despite the differences in the internal structures and uncertainties that exist among the climate models, they all agree on an increase of meteorological droughts in the future in terms of higher drought intensity and longer events. Drought intensity is projected to increase between +25 and +50\% during 2021-2050 and between +131 and +388\% during 2071-2100. This translates into +3 to +5, and +7 to +8 more drought months per year during both periods, respectively. With longer lasting drought events, the number of drought events decreases. Projected droughts based on the high emission scenario are 1.7 times more severe than droughts based on the moderate scenario. That means that droughts in this region will likely become more severe in the coming decades. Despite the inherent high uncertainties of climate projections, the results provide a basis in planning and (water-)managing activities for climate change adaptation measures in Malawi. This is of particular relevance for water management issues referring hydro power generation and food production, both for rain-fed and irrigated agriculture.}, language = {en} } @article{MtilatilaBronstertVormoor2022, author = {Mtilatila, Lucy Mphatso Ng'ombe and Bronstert, Axel and Vormoor, Klaus Josef}, title = {Temporal evaluation and projections of meteorological droughts in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin, Southeast Africa}, series = {Frontiers in Water}, journal = {Frontiers in Water}, publisher = {Frontiers Media S.A.}, address = {Lausanne, Schweiz}, issn = {2624-9375}, doi = {10.3389/frwa.2022.1041452}, pages = {1 -- 16}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The study examined the potential future changes of drought characteristics in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin in Southeast Africa. This region strongly depends on water resources to generate electricity and food. Future projections (considering both moderate and high emission scenarios) of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of 16 bias-corrected climate model combinations were blended with a scenario-neutral response surface approach to analyses changes in: (i) the meteorological conditions, (ii) the meteorological water balance, and (iii) selected drought characteristics such as drought intensity, drought months, and drought events, which were derived from the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index. Changes were analyzed for a near-term (2021-2050) and far-term period (2071-2100) with reference to 1976-2005. The effect of bias-correction (i.e., empirical quantile mapping) on the ability of the climate model ensemble to reproduce observed drought characteristics as compared to raw climate projections was also investigated. Results suggest that the bias-correction improves the climate models in terms of reproducing temperature and precipitation statistics but not drought characteristics. Still, despite the differences in the internal structures and uncertainties that exist among the climate models, they all agree on an increase of meteorological droughts in the future in terms of higher drought intensity and longer events. Drought intensity is projected to increase between +25 and +50\% during 2021-2050 and between +131 and +388\% during 2071-2100. This translates into +3 to +5, and +7 to +8 more drought months per year during both periods, respectively. With longer lasting drought events, the number of drought events decreases. Projected droughts based on the high emission scenario are 1.7 times more severe than droughts based on the moderate scenario. That means that droughts in this region will likely become more severe in the coming decades. Despite the inherent high uncertainties of climate projections, the results provide a basis in planning and (water-)managing activities for climate change adaptation measures in Malawi. This is of particular relevance for water management issues referring hydro power generation and food production, both for rain-fed and irrigated agriculture.}, language = {en} } @article{Reibold2022, author = {Reibold, Kerstin}, title = {Settler Colonialism, Decolonization, and Climate Change}, series = {Journal of applied philosophy}, journal = {Journal of applied philosophy}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0264-3758}, doi = {10.1111/japp.12573}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The article proposes that climate change makes enduring colonial injustices and structures visible. It focuses on the imposition and dominance of colonial concepts of land and self-determination on Indigenous peoples in settler states. It argues that if the dominance of these colonial frameworks remains unaddressed, the progressing climate change will worsen other colonial injustices, too. Specifically, Indigenous self-determination capabilities will be increasingly undermined, and Indigenous peoples will experience the loss of what they understand as relevant land from within their own ontologies of land. The article holds that even if settler states strive to repair colonial injustices, these efforts will be unsuccessful if climate change occurs and decolonization is pursued within the framework of a settler colonial ontology of land. Therefore, the article suggests, decolonization of the ontologies of land and concepts of self-determination is a precondition for a just response to climate change.}, language = {en} }