@phdthesis{Hakimhashemi2009,
  author    = {Hakimhashemi, Amir Hossein},
  title     = {Time-dependent occurrence rates of large earthquakes in the Dead Sea fault zone and applications to probabilistic seismic hazard assessments},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-52486},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2009},
  abstract  = {Die relativ hohe seismische Aktivit{\"a}t der Tote-Meer-St{\"o}rungszone (Dead Sea Fault Zone - DSFZ) ist mit einem hohen Gefahrenpotential verbunden, welches zu einem erheblichen Erdbebenrisiko f{\"u}r die Ballungszentren in den L{\"a}ndern Syrien, Libanon, Pal{\"a}stina, Jordanien und Israel f{\"u}hrt. Eine Vielzahl massiver, zerst{\"o}rerischer Erdbeben hat sich in diesem Raum in den letzten zwei Jahrtausenden ereignet. Ihre Wiederholungsrate zeigt Anzeichen f{\"u}r eine zeitliche Abh{\"a}ngigkeit, insbesondere wenn lange Zeitr{\"a}ume in Betracht gezogen werden. Die Ber{\"u}cksichtigung der zeitlichen Abh{\"a}ngigkeit des Auftretens von Erdbeben ist f{\"u}r eine realistische seismische Gef{\"a}hrdungseinsch{\"a}tzung von großer Bedeutung. Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist es, anhand des zeitabh{\"a}ngigen Auftretens von Erdbeben eine robuste wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretische seismische Gef{\"a}hrdungseinsch{\"a}tzung am Beispiel der DSFZ zu entwickeln. Mittels dieser Methode soll die zeitliche Abh{\"a}ngigkeit des Auftretens von großen Erdbeben (Mw ≥ 6) untersucht und somit eine Gef{\"a}hrdungseinsch{\"a}tzung f{\"u}r das Untersuchungsgebiet getroffen werden. Prim{\"a}r gilt es zu pr{\"u}fen, ob das Auftreten von großen Erdbeben tats{\"a}chlich einer zeitlichen Abh{\"a}ngigkeit unterliegt und wenn ja, inwiefern diese bestimmt werden kann. Zu diesem Zweck werden insgesamt vier zeitabh{\"a}ngige statistische Verteilungen (Weibull, Gamma, Lognormal und Brownian Passage Time (BPT)) sowie die zeitunabh{\"a}ngige Exponentialverteilung (Poisson-Prozess) getestet. Zur Absch{\"a}tzung der jeweiligen Modellparameter wird eine modifizierte Methode der gewichteten Maximum-Likelihood-Sch{\"a}tzung (MLE) verwendet. Um einzusch{\"a}tzen, ob die Wiederholungsrate von Erdbeben einer unimodalen oder multimodalen Form folgt, wird ein nichtparametrischer Bootstrap-Test f{\"u}r Multimodalit{\"a}t durchgef{\"u}hrt. Im Falle einer multimodalen Form wird neben der MLE zus{\"a}tzlich eine Erwartungsmaximierungsmethode (EM) herangezogen. Zur Auswahl des am besten geeigneten Modells wird zum einem das Bayesschen Informationskriterium (BIC) und zum anderen der modifizierte Kolmogorow-Smirnow-Goodness-of-Fit-Test angewendet. Abschließend werden mittels der Bootstrap-Methode die Konfidenzintervalle der gesch{\"a}tzten Parameter berechnet. Als Datengrundlage werden Erdbeben mit Mw ≥ 6 seit dem Jahre 300 n. Chr. herangezogen. Das Untersuchungsgebiet erstreckt sich von 29.5° N bis 37° N und umfasst ein ca. 40 km breites Gebiet entlang der DSFZ. Aufgrund der seismotektonischen Situation im Untersuchungsgebiet wird zwischen einer s{\"u}dlichen, zentralen und n{\"o}rdlichen Subzone unterschieden. Dabei kann die s{\"u}dliche Subzone aus Mangel an Daten nicht f{\"u}r die Analysen herangezogen werden. Die Ergebnisse f{\"u}r die zentrale Subzone zeigen keinen signifikanten multimodalen Verlauf der Wiederholungsrate von Erdbeben. Des Weiteren ist kein signifikanter Unterschied zwischen den zeitabh{\"a}ngigen und dem zeitunabh{\"a}ngigem Modell zu verzeichnen. Da das zeitunabh{\"a}ngige Modell vergleichsweise einfach interpretierbar ist, wird die Wiederholungsrate von Erdbeben in dieser Subzone unter Annahme der Exponentialverteilungs-Hypothese abgesch{\"a}tzt. Sie wird demnach als zeitunabh{\"a}ngig betrachtet und betr{\"a}gt 9.72 * 10-3 Erdbeben (mit Mw ≥ 6) pro Jahr. Einen besonderen Fall stellt die n{\"o}rdliche Subzone dar. In diesem Gebiet tritt im Durchschnitt alle 51 Jahre ein massives Erdbeben (Mw ≥ 6) auf. Das letzte Erdbeben dieser Gr{\"o}ße ereignete sich 1872 und liegt somit bereits 137 Jahre zur{\"u}ck. Somit ist in diesem Gebiet ein Erdbeben dieser St{\"a}rke {\"u}berf{\"a}llig. Im statistischen Mittel liegt die Zeit zwischen zwei Erdbeben zu 96\% unter 137 Jahren. Zudem wird eine deutliche zeitliche Abh{\"a}ngigkeit der Erdbeben-Wiederauftretensrate durch die Ergebnisse der in der Arbeit neu entwickelten statistischen Verfahren best{\"a}tigt. Dabei ist festzustellen, dass die Wiederholungsrate insbesondere kurz nach einem Erdbeben eine sehr hohe zeitliche Abh{\"a}ngigkeit aufweist. Am besten repr{\"a}sentiert werden die seismischen Bedingungen in der genannten Subzone durch ein bi-modales Weibull-Weibull-Modell. Die Wiederholungsrate ist eine glatte Zeitfunktion, welche zwei H{\"a}ufungen von Datenpunkten in der Zeit nach dem Erdbeben zeigt. Dabei umfasst die erste H{\"a}ufung einen Zeitraum von 80 Jahren, ausgehend vom Zeitpunkt des jeweiligen Bebens. Innerhalb dieser Zeitspanne ist die Wiederholungsrate extrem zeitabh{\"a}ngig. Die Wiederholungsrate direkt nach einem Beben ist sehr niedrig und steigert sich in den folgenden 10 Jahren erheblich bis zu einem Maximum von 0.024 Erdbeben/Jahr. Anschließend sinkt die Rate und erreicht ihr Minimum nach weiteren 70 Jahren mit 0.0145 Erdbeben/Jahr. An dieses Minimum schließt sich die zweite H{\"a}ufung von Daten an, dessen Dauer abh{\"a}ngig von der Erdbebenwiederholungszeit ist. Innerhalb dieses Zeitfensters nimmt die Erdbeben-Wiederauftretensrate ann{\"a}hernd konstant um 0.015 Erdbeben/Jahr zu. Diese Ergebnisse bilden die Grundlage f{\"u}r eine zeitabh{\"a}ngige probabilistische seismische Gef{\"a}hrdungseinsch{\"a}tzung (PSHA) f{\"u}r die seismische Quellregion, die den n{\"o}rdlichen Raum der DSFZ umfasst.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Shirzaei2010,
  author    = {Shirzaei, Manoochehr},
  title     = {Crustal deformation source monitoring using advanced InSAR time series and time dependent inverse modeling},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-50774},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {Crustal deformation can be the result of volcanic and tectonic activity such as fault dislocation and magma intrusion. The crustal deformation may precede and/or succeed the earthquake occurrence and eruption. Mitigating the associated hazard, continuous monitoring of the crustal deformation accordingly has become an important task for geo-observatories and fast response systems. Due to highly non-linear behavior of the crustal deformation fields in time and space, which are not always measurable using conventional geodetic methods (e.g., Leveling), innovative techniques of monitoring and analysis are required. In this thesis I describe novel methods to improve the ability for precise and accurate mapping the spatiotemporal surface deformation field using multi acquisitions of satellite radar data. Furthermore, to better understand the source of such spatiotemporal deformation fields, I present novel static and time dependent model inversion approaches. Almost any interferograms include areas where the signal decorrelates and is distorted by atmospheric delay. In this thesis I detail new analysis methods to reduce the limitations of conventional InSAR, by combining the benefits of advanced InSAR methods such as the permanent scatterer InSAR (PSI) and the small baseline subsets (SBAS) with a wavelet based data filtering scheme. This novel InSAR time series methodology is applied, for instance, to monitor the non-linear deformation processes at Hawaii Island. The radar phase change at Hawaii is found to be due to intrusions, eruptions, earthquakes and flank movement processes and superimposed by significant environmental artifacts (e.g., atmospheric). The deformation field, I obtained using the new InSAR analysis method, is in good agreement with continuous GPS data. This provides an accurate spatiotemporal deformation field at Hawaii, which allows time dependent source modeling. Conventional source modeling methods usually deal with static deformation field, while retrieving the dynamics of the source requires more sophisticated time dependent optimization approaches. This problem I address by combining Monte Carlo based optimization approaches with a Kalman Filter, which provides the model parameters of the deformation source consistent in time. I found there are numerous deformation sources at Hawaii Island which are spatiotemporally interacting, such as volcano inflation is associated to changes in the rifting behavior, and temporally linked to silent earthquakes. I applied these new methods to other tectonic and volcanic terrains, most of which revealing the importance of associated or coupled deformation sources. The findings are 1) the relation between deep and shallow hydrothermal and magmatic sources underneath the Campi Flegrei volcano, 2) gravity-driven deformation at Damavand volcano, 3) fault interaction associated with the 2010 Haiti earthquake, 4) independent block wise flank motion at the Hilina Fault system, Kilauea, and 5) interaction between salt diapir and the 2005 Qeshm earthquake in southern Iran. This thesis, written in cumulative form including 9 manuscripts published or under review in peer reviewed journals, improves the techniques for InSAR time series analysis and source modeling and shows the mutual dependence between adjacent deformation sources. These findings allow more realistic estimation of the hazard associated with complex volcanic and tectonic systems.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Mohr2013,
  author    = {Mohr, Christian Heinrich},
  title     = {Hydrological and erosion responses to man-made and natural disturbances : insights from forested catchments in South-central Chile},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-70146},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {Logging and large earthquakes are disturbances that may significantly affect hydrological and erosional processes and process rates, although in decisively different ways. Despite numerous studies that have documented the impacts of both deforestation and earthquakes on water and sediment fluxes, a number of details regarding the timing and type of de- and reforestation; seismic impacts on subsurface water fluxes; or the overall geomorphic work involved have remained unresolved. The main objective of this thesis is to address these shortcomings and to better understand and compare the hydrological and erosional process responses to such natural and man-made disturbances. To this end, south-central Chile provides an excellent natural laboratory owing to its high seismicity and the ongoing conversion of land into highly productive plantation forests. In this dissertation I combine paired catchment experiments, data analysis techniques, and physics-based modelling to investigate: 1) the effect of plantation forests on water resources, 2) the source and sink behavior of timber harvest areas in terms of overland flow generation and sediment fluxes, 3) geomorphic work and its efficiency as a function of seasonal logging, 4) possible hydrologic responses of the saturated zone to the 2010 Maule earthquake and 5) responses of the vadose zone to this earthquake. Re 1) In order to quantify the hydrologic impact of plantation forests, it is fundamental to first establish their water balances. I show that tree species is not significant in this regard, i.e. Pinus radiata and Eucalyptus globulus do not trigger any decisive different hydrologic response. Instead, water consumption is more sensitive to soil-water supply for the local hydro-climatic conditions. Re 2) Contradictory opinions exist about whether timber harvest areas (THA) generate or capture overland flow and sediment. Although THAs contribute significantly to hydrology and sediment transport because of their spatial extent, little is known about the hydrological and erosional processes occurring on them. I show that THAs may act as both sources and sinks for overland flow, which in turn intensifies surface erosion. Above a rainfall intensity of ~20 mm/h, which corresponds to <10\% of all rainfall, THAs may generate runoff whereas below that threshold they remain sinks. The overall contribution of Hortonian runoff is thus secondary considering the local rainfall regime. The bulk of both runoff and sediment is generated by Dunne, saturation excess, overland flow. I also show that logging may increase infiltrability on THAs which may cause an initial decrease in streamflow followed by an increase after the groundwater storage has been refilled. Re 3) I present changes in frequency-magnitude distributions following seasonal logging by applying Quantile Regression Forests at hitherto unprecedented detail. It is clearly the season that controls the hydro-geomorphic work efficiency of clear cutting. Logging, particularly dry seasonal logging, caused a shift of work efficiency towards less flashy and mere but more frequent moderate rainfall-runoff events. The sediment transport is dominated by Dunne overland flow which is consistent with physics-based modelling using WASA-SED. Re 4) It is well accepted that earthquakes may affect hydrological processes in the saturated zone. Assuming such flow conditions, consolidation of saturated saprolitic material is one possible response. Consolidation raises the hydraulic gradients which may explain the observed increase in discharge following earthquakes. By doing so, squeezed water saturates the soil which in turn increases the water accessible for plant transpiration. Post-seismic enhanced transpiration is reflected in the intensification of diurnal cycling. Re 5) Assuming unsaturated conditions, I present the first evidence that the vadose zone may also respond to seismic waves by releasing pore water which in turn feeds groundwater reservoirs. By doing so, water tables along the valley bottoms are elevated thus providing additional water resources to the riparian vegetation. By inverse modelling, the transient increase in transpiration is found to be 30-60\%. Based on the data available, both hypotheses, are not testable. Finally, when comparing the hydrological and erosional effects of the Maule earthquake with the impact of planting exotic plantation forests, the overall observed earthquake effects are comparably small, and limited to short time scales.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Kieling2015,
  author    = {Kieling, Katrin},
  title     = {Quantification of ground motions by broadband simulations},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-85989},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XIV, 118},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {In many procedures of seismic risk mitigation, ground motion simulations are needed to test systems or improve their effectiveness. For example they may be used to estimate the level of ground shaking caused by future earthquakes. Good physical models for ground motion simulation are also thought to be important for hazard assessment, as they could close gaps in the existing datasets. Since the observed ground motion in nature shows a certain variability, part of which cannot be explained by macroscopic parameters such as magnitude or position of an earthquake, it would be desirable that a good physical model is not only able to produce one single seismogram, but also to reveal this natural variability. In this thesis, I develop a method to model realistic ground motions in a way that is computationally simple to handle, permitting multiple scenario simulations. I focus on two aspects of ground motion modelling. First, I use deterministic wave propagation for the whole frequency range - from static deformation to approximately 10 Hz - but account for source variability by implementing self-similar slip distributions and rough fault interfaces. Second, I scale the source spectrum so that the modelled waveforms represent the correct radiated seismic energy. With this scaling I verify whether the energy magnitude is suitable as an explanatory variable, which characterises the amount of energy radiated at high frequencies - the advantage of the energy magnitude being that it can be deduced from observations, even in real-time. Applications of the developed method for the 2008 Wenchuan (China) earthquake, the 2003 Tokachi-Oki (Japan) earthquake and the 1994 Northridge (California, USA) earthquake show that the fine source discretisations combined with the small scale source variability ensure that high frequencies are satisfactorily introduced, justifying the deterministic wave propagation approach even at high frequencies. I demonstrate that the energy magnitude can be used to calibrate the high-frequency content in ground motion simulations. Because deterministic wave propagation is applied to the whole frequency range, the simulation method permits the quantification of the variability in ground motion due to parametric uncertainties in the source description. A large number of scenario simulations for an M=6 earthquake show that the roughness of the source as well as the distribution of fault dislocations have a minor effect on the simulated variability by diminishing directivity effects, while hypocenter location and rupture velocity more strongly influence the variability. The uncertainty in energy magnitude, however, leads to the largest differences of ground motion amplitude between different events, resulting in a variability which is larger than the one observed. For the presented approach, this dissertation shows (i) the verification of the computational correctness of the code, (ii) the ability to reproduce observed ground motions and (iii) the validation of the simulated ground motion variability. Those three steps are essential to evaluate the suitability of the method for means of seismic risk mitigation.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DahmCescaHainzletal.2015,
  author    = {Dahm, Torsten and Cesca, Simone and Hainzl, Sebastian and Braun, Thomas and Kr{\"u}ger, Frank},
  title     = {Discrimination between induced, triggered, and natural earthquakes close to hydrocarbon reservoirs: A probabilistic approach based on the modeling of depletion-induced stress changes and seismological source parameters},
  series = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth},
  volume    = {120},
  journal   = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {2169-9313},
  doi       = {10.1002/2014JB011778},
  pages     = {2491 -- 2509},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Earthquakes occurring close to hydrocarbon fields under production are often under critical view of being induced or triggered. However, clear and testable rules to discriminate the different events have rarely been developed and tested. The unresolved scientific problem may lead to lengthy public disputes with unpredictable impact on the local acceptance of the exploitation and field operations. We propose a quantitative approach to discriminate induced, triggered, and natural earthquakes, which is based on testable input parameters. Maxima of occurrence probabilities are compared for the cases under question, and a single probability of being triggered or induced is reported. The uncertainties of earthquake location and other input parameters are considered in terms of the integration over probability density functions. The probability that events have been human triggered/induced is derived from the modeling of Coulomb stress changes and a rate and state-dependent seismicity model. In our case a 3-D boundary element method has been adapted for the nuclei of strain approach to estimate the stress changes outside the reservoir, which are related to pore pressure changes in the field formation. The predicted rate of natural earthquakes is either derived from the background seismicity or, in case of rare events, from an estimate of the tectonic stress rate. Instrumentally derived seismological information on the event location, source mechanism, and the size of the rupture plane is of advantage for the method. If the rupture plane has been estimated, the discrimination between induced or only triggered events is theoretically possible if probability functions are convolved with a rupture fault filter. We apply the approach to three recent main shock events: (1) the M-w 4.3 Ekofisk 2001, North Sea, earthquake close to the Ekofisk oil field; (2) the M-w 4.4 Rotenburg 2004, Northern Germany, earthquake in the vicinity of the Sohlingen gas field; and (3) the M-w 6.1 Emilia 2012, Northern Italy, earthquake in the vicinity of a hydrocarbon reservoir. The three test cases cover the complete range of possible causes: clearly human induced, not even human triggered, and a third case in between both extremes.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Teshebaeva2016,
  author    = {Teshebaeva, Kanayim},
  title     = {SAR interferometry analysis of surface processes in the Pamir - Tien Shan active orogens - emphasis on coseismic deformation and landslides},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-96743},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {128},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {This thesis presents new approaches of SAR methods and their application to tectonically active systems and related surface deformation. With 3 publications two case studies are presented: (1) The coseismic deformation related to the Nura earthquake (5th October 2008, magnitude Mw 6.6) at the eastern termination of the intramontane Alai valley. Located between the southern Tien Shan and the northern Pamir the coseismic surface displacements are analysed using SAR (Synthetic Aperture RADAR) data. The results show clear gradients in the vertical and horizontal directions along a complex pattern of surface ruptures and active faults. To integrate and to interpret these observations in the context of the regional active tectonics a SAR data analysis is complemented with seismological data and geological field observations. The main moment release of the Nura earthquake appears to be on the Pamir Frontal thrust, while the main surface displacements and surface rupture occurred in the footwall and along of the NE-SW striking Irkeshtam fault. With InSAR data from ascending and descending satellite tracks along with pixel offset measurements the Nura earthquake source is modelled as a segmented rupture. One fault segment corresponds to high-angle brittle faulting at the Pamir Frontal thrust and two more fault segments show moderate-angle and low-friction thrusting at the Irkeshtam fault. The integrated analysis of the coseismic deformation argues for a rupture segmentation and strain partitioning associated to the earthquake. It possibly activated an orogenic wedge in the easternmost segment of the Pamir-Alai collision zone. Further, the style of the segmentation may be associated with the presence of Paleogene evaporites. (2) The second focus is put on slope instabilities and consequent landslides in the area of prominent topographic transition between the Fergana basin and high-relief Alai range. The Alai range constitutes an active orogenic wedge of the Pamir - Tien Shan collision zone that described as a progressively northward propagating fold-and-thrust belt. The interferometric analysis of ALOS/PALSAR radar data integrates a period of 4 years (2007-2010) based on the Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) time-series technique to assess surface deformation with millimeter surface change accuracy. 118 interferograms are analyzed to observe spatially-continuous movements with downslope velocities up to 71 mm/yr. The obtained rates indicate slow movement of the deep-seated landslides during the observation time. We correlated these movements with precipitation and seismic records. The results suggest that the deformation peaks correlate with rainfall in the 3 preceding months and with one earthquake event. In the next step, to understand the spatial pattern of landslide processes, the tectonic morphologic and lithologic settings are combined with the patterns of surface deformation. We demonstrate that the lithological and tectonic structural patterns are the main controlling factors for landslide occurrence and surface deformation magnitudes. Furthermore active contractional deformation in the front of the orogenic wedge is the main mechanism to sustain relief. Some of the slower but continuously moving slope instabilities are directly related to tectonically active faults and unconsolidated young Quaternary syn-orogenic sedimentary sequences. The InSAR observed slow moving landslides represent active deep-seated gravitational slope deformation phenomena which is first time observed in the Tien Shan mountains. Our approach offers a new combination of InSAR techniques and tectonic aspects to localize and understand enhanced slope instabilities in tectonically active mountain fronts in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{JaraMunoz2016,
  author    = {Jara Mu{\~n}oz, Julius},
  title     = {Quantifying forearc deformation patterns using coastal geomorphic markers},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-102652},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XXV, 213},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Rapidly uplifting coastlines are frequently associated with convergent tectonic boundaries, like subduction zones, which are repeatedly breached by giant megathrust earthquakes. The coastal relief along tectonically active realms is shaped by the effect of sea-level variations and heterogeneous patterns of permanent tectonic deformation, which are accumulated through several cycles of megathrust earthquakes. However, the correlation between earthquake deformation patterns and the sustained long-term segmentation of forearcs, particularly in Chile, remains poorly understood. Furthermore, the methods used to estimate permanent deformation from geomorphic markers, like marine terraces, have remained qualitative and are based on unrepeatable methods. This contrasts with the increasing resolution of digital elevation models, such as Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and high-resolution bathymetric surveys. Throughout this thesis I study permanent deformation in a holistic manner: from the methods to assess deformation rates, to the processes involved in its accumulation. My research focuses particularly on two aspects: Developing methodologies to assess permanent deformation using marine terraces, and comparing permanent deformation with seismic cycle deformation patterns under different spatial scales along the M8.8 Maule earthquake (2010) rupture zone. Two methods are developed to determine deformation rates from wave-built and wave-cut terraces respectively. I selected an archetypal example of a wave-built terrace at Santa Maria Island studying its stratigraphy and recognizing sequences of reoccupation events tied with eleven radiocarbon sample ages (14C ages). I developed a method to link patterns of reoccupation with sea-level proxies by iterating relative sea level curves for a range of uplift rates. I find the best fit between relative sea-level and the stratigraphic patterns for an uplift rate of 1.5 +- 0.3 m/ka. A Graphical User Interface named TerraceM® was developed in Matlab®. This novel software tool determines shoreline angles in wave-cut terraces under different geomorphic scenarios. To validate the methods, I select test sites in areas of available high-resolution LiDAR topography along the Maule earthquake rupture zone and in California, USA. The software allows determining the 3D location of the shoreline angle, which is a proxy for the estimation of permanent deformation rates. The method is based on linear interpolations to define the paleo platform and cliff on swath profiles. The shoreline angle is then located by intersecting these interpolations. The accuracy and precision of TerraceM® was tested by comparing its results with previous assessments, and through an experiment with students in a computer lab setting at the University of Potsdam. I combined the methods developed to analyze wave-built and wave-cut terraces to assess regional patterns of permanent deformation along the (2010) Maule earthquake rupture. Wave-built terraces are tied using 12 Infra Red Stimulated luminescence ages (IRSL ages) and shoreline angles in wave-cut terraces are estimated from 170 aligned swath profiles. The comparison of coseismic slip, interseismic coupling, and permanent deformation, leads to three areas of high permanent uplift, terrace warping, and sharp fault offsets. These three areas correlate with regions of high slip and low coupling, as well as with the spatial limit of at least eight historical megathrust ruptures (M8-9.5). I propose that the zones of upwarping at Arauco and Topocalma reflect changes in frictional properties of the megathrust, which result in discrete boundaries for the propagation of mega earthquakes. To explore the application of geomorphic markers and quantitative morphology in offshore areas I performed a local study of patterns of permanent deformation inferred from hitherto unrecognized drowned shorelines at the Arauco Bay, at the southern part of the (2010) Maule earthquake rupture zone. A multidisciplinary approach, including morphometry, sedimentology, paleontology, 3D morphoscopy, and a landscape Evolution Model is used to recognize, map, and assess local rates and patterns of permanent deformation in submarine environments. Permanent deformation patterns are then reproduced using elastic models to assess deformation rates of an active submarine splay fault defined as Santa Maria Fault System. The best fit suggests a reverse structure with a slip rate of 3.7 m/ka for the last 30 ka. The register of land level changes during the earthquake cycle at Santa Maria Island suggest that most of the deformation may be accrued through splay fault reactivation during mega earthquakes, like the (2010) Maule event. Considering a recurrence time of 150 to 200 years, as determined from historical and geological observations, slip between 0.3 and 0.7 m per event would be required to account for the 3.7 m/ka millennial slip rate. However, if the SMFS slips only every ~1000 years, representing a few megathrust earthquakes, then a slip of ~3.5 m per event would be required to account for the long- term rate. Such event would be equivalent to a magnitude ~6.7 earthquake capable to generate a local tsunami. The results of this thesis provide novel and fundamental information regarding the amount of permanent deformation accrued in the crust, and the mechanisms responsible for this accumulation at millennial time-scales along the M8.8 Maule earthquake (2010) rupture zone. Furthermore, the results of this thesis highlight the application of quantitative geomorphology and the use of repeatable methods to determine permanent deformation, improve the accuracy of marine terrace assessments, and estimates of vertical deformation rates in tectonically active coastal areas. This is vital information for adequate coastal-hazard assessments and to anticipate realistic earthquake and tsunami scenarios.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Marc2016,
  author    = {Marc, Odin},
  title     = {Earthquake-induced landsliding},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-96808},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xvi, 171},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Earthquakes deform Earth's surface, building long-lasting topographic features and contributing to landscape and mountain formation. However, seismic waves produced by earthquakes may also destabilize hillslopes, leading to large amounts of soil and bedrock moving downslope. Moreover, static deformation and shaking are suspected to damage the surface bedrock and therefore alter its future properties, affecting hydrological and erosional dynamics. Thus, earthquakes participate both in mountain building and stimulate directly or indirectly their erosion. Moreover, the impact of earthquakes on hillslopes has important implications for the amount of sediment and organic matter delivered to rivers, and ultimately to oceans, during episodic catastrophic seismic crises, the magnitude of life and property losses associated with landsliding, the perturbation and recovery of landscape properties after shaking, and the long term topographic evolution of mountain belts. Several of these aspects have been addressed recently through individual case studies but additional data compilation as well as theoretical or numerical modelling are required to tackle these issues in a more systematic and rigorous manner. This dissertation combines data compilation of earthquake characteristics, landslide mapping, and seismological data interpretation with physically-based modeling in order to address how earthquakes impact on erosional processes and landscape evolution. Over short time scales (10-100 s) and intermediate length scales (10 km), I have attempted to improve our understanding and ability to predict the amount of landslide debris triggered by seismic shaking in epicentral areas. Over long time scales (1-100 ky) and across a mountain belt (100 km) I have modeled the competition between erosional unloading and building of topography associated with earthquakes. Finally, over intermediate time scales (1-10 y) and at the hillslope scale (0.1-1 km) I have collected geomorphological and seismological data that highlight persistent effects of earthquakes on landscape properties and behaviour. First, I compiled a database on earthquakes that produced significant landsliding, including an estimate of the total landslide volume and area, and earthquake characteristics such as seismic moment and source depth. A key issue is the accurate conversion of landslide maps into volume estimates. Therefore I also estimated how amalgamation - when mapping errors lead to the bundling of multiple landslide into a single polygon - affects volume estimates from various earthquake-induced landslide inventories and developed an algorithm to automatically detect this artifact. The database was used to test a physically-based prediction of the total landslide area and volume caused by earthquakes, based on seismological scaling relationships and a statistical description of the landscape properties. The model outperforms empirical fits in accuracy, with 25 out of 40 cases well predicted, and allows interpretation of many outliers in physical terms. Apart from seismological complexities neglected by the model I found that exceptional rock strength properties or antecedent conditions may explain most outliers. Second, I assessed the geomorphic effects of large earthquakes on landscape dynamics by surveying the temporal evolution of precipitation-normalized landslide rate. I found strongly elevated landslide rates following earthquakes that progressively recover over 1 to 4 years, indicating that regolith strength drops and recovers. The relaxation is clearly non-linear for at least one case, and does not seem to correlate with coseismic landslide reactivation, water table level increase or tree root-system recovery. I suggested that shallow bedrock is damaged by the earthquake and then heals on annual timescales. Such variations in ground strength must be translated into shallow subsurface seismic velocities that are increasingly surveyed with ambient seismic noise correlations. With seismic noise autocorrelation I computed the seismic velocity in the epicentral areas of three earthquakes where I constrained a change in landslide rate. We found similar recovery dynamics and timescales, suggesting that seismic noise correlation techniques could be further developed to meaningfully assess ground strength variations for landscape dynamics. These two measurements are also in good agreement with the temporal dynamics of post-seismic surface displacement measured by GPS. This correlation suggests that the surface healing mechanism may be driven by tectonic deformation, and that the surface regolith and fractured bedrock may behave as a granular media that slowly compacts as it is sheared or vibrated. Last, I compared our model of earthquake-induced landsliding with a standard formulation of surface deformation caused by earthquakes to understand which parameters govern the competition between the building and destruction of topography caused by earthquakes. In contrast with previous studies I found that very large (Mw>8) earthquakes always increase the average topography, whereas only intermediate (Mw ~ 7) earthquakes in steep landscapes may reduce topography. Moreover, I illustrated how the net effect of earthquakes varies with depth or landscape steepness implying a complex and ambivalent role through the life of a mountain belt. Further I showed that faults producing a Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake sizes, will limit topography over a larger range of fault sizes than faults producing repeated earthquakes with a characteristic size.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BrickerSchwanghartAdhikarietal.2017,
  author    = {Bricker, Jeremy D. and Schwanghart, Wolfgang and Adhikari, Basanta Raj and Moriguchi, Shuji and Roeber, Volker and Giri, Sanjay},
  title     = {Performance of Models for Flash Flood Warning and Hazard Assessment},
  series = {Mountain research and development},
  volume    = {37},
  journal   = {Mountain research and development},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {International Mountain Society},
  address   = {Lawrence},
  issn      = {0276-4741},
  doi       = {10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-16-00043.1},
  pages     = {5 -- 15},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {The 2015 magnitude 7.8 Gorkha earthquake and its aftershocks weakened mountain slopes in Nepal. Co- and postseismic landsliding and the formation of landslide-dammed lakes along steeply dissected valleys were widespread, among them a landslide that dammed the Kali Gandaki River. Overtopping of the landslide dam resulted in a flash flood downstream, though casualties were prevented because of timely evacuation of low-lying areas. We hindcast the flood using the BREACH physically based dam-break model for upstream hydrograph generation, and compared the resulting maximum flow rate with those resulting from various empirical formulas and a simplified hydrograph based on published observations. Subsequent modeling of downstream flood propagation was compromised by a coarse-resolution digital elevation model with several artifacts. Thus, we used a digital-elevation-model preprocessing technique that combined carving and smoothing to derive topographic data. We then applied the 1-dimensional HEC-RAS model for downstream flood routing, and compared it to the 2-dimensional Delft-FLOW model. Simulations were validated using rectified frames of a video recorded by a resident during the flood in the village of Beni, allowing estimation of maximum flow depth and speed. Results show that hydrological smoothing is necessary when using coarse topographic data (such as SRTM or ASTER), as using raw topography underestimates flow depth and speed and overestimates flood wave arrival lag time. Results also show that the 2-dimensional model produces more accurate results than the 1-dimensional model but the 1-dimensional model generates a more conservative result and can be run in a much shorter time. Therefore, a 2-dimensional model is recommended for hazard assessment and planning, whereas a 1-dimensional model would facilitate real-time warning declaration.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MelnickMorenoQuinterosetal.2017,
  author    = {Melnick, Daniel and Moreno, Marcos and Quinteros, Javier and Carlos Baez, Juan and Deng, Zhiguo and Li, Shaoyang and Oncken, Onno},
  title     = {The super-interseismic phase of the megathrust earthquake cycle in Chile},
  series = {Geophysical research letters},
  volume    = {44},
  journal   = {Geophysical research letters},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {0094-8276},
  doi       = {10.1002/2016GL071845},
  pages     = {784 -- 791},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Along a subduction zone, great megathrust earthquakes recur either after long seismic gaps lasting several decades to centuries or over much shorter periods lasting hours to a few years when cascading successions of earthquakes rupture nearby segments of the fault. We analyze a decade of continuous Global Positioning System observations along the South American continent to estimate changes in deformation rates between the 2010 Maule (M8.8) and 2015 Illapel (M8.3) Chilean earthquakes. We find that surface velocities increased after the 2010 earthquake, in response to continental-scale viscoelastic mantle relaxation and to regional-scale increased degree of interplate locking. We propose that increased locking occurs transiently during a super-interseismic phase in segments adjacent to a megathrust rupture, responding to bending of both plates caused by coseismic slip and subsequent afterslip. Enhanced strain rates during a super-interseismic phase may therefore bring a megathrust segment closer to failure and possibly triggered the 2015 event.},
  language  = {en}
}