@article{MatzkaSiddiquiLilienkampetal.2017,
  author    = {Matzka, J{\"u}rgen and Siddiqui, Tarique Adnan and Lilienkamp, Henning and Stolle, Claudia and Veliz, Oscar},
  title     = {Quantifying solar flux and geomagnetic main field influence on the equatorial ionospheric current system at the geomagnetic observatory Huancayo},
  series = {Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics},
  volume    = {163},
  journal   = {Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {1364-6826},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.jastp.2017.04.014},
  pages     = {120 -- 125},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {In order to analyse the sensitivity of the equatorial ionospheric current system, i.e. the solar quiet current system and the equatorial electrojet, to solar cycle variations and to the secular variation of the geomagnetic main field, we have analysed 51 years (1935-1985) of geomagnetic observatory data from Huancayo, Peru. This period is ideal to analyse the influence of the main field strength on the amplitude of the quiet daily variation, since the main field decreases significantly from 1935 to 1985, while the distance of the magnetic equator to the observatory remains stable. To this end, we digitised some 19 years of hourly mean values of the horizontal component (H), which have not been available digitally at the World Data Centres. Then, the sensitivity of the amplitude Ali of the quiet daily variation to both solar cycle variations (in terms of sunspot numbers and solar flux F10.7) and changes of the geomagnetic main field strength (due to secular variation) was determined. We confirm an increase of Delta H for the decreasing main field in this period, as expected from physics based models (Cnossen, 2016), but with a somewhat smaller rate of 4.4\% (5.8\% considering one standard error) compared with 6.9\% predicted by the physics based model.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SanchezWichtBaerenzung2020,
  author    = {Sanchez, Sabrina and Wicht, Johannes and B{\"a}renzung, Julien},
  title     = {Predictions of the geomagnetic secular variation based on the ensemble sequential assimilation of geomagnetic field models by dynamo simulations},
  series = {Earth, planets and space},
  volume    = {72},
  journal   = {Earth, planets and space},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {New York},
  issn      = {1880-5981},
  doi       = {10.1186/s40623-020-01279-y},
  pages     = {20},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {The IGRF offers an important incentive for testing algorithms predicting the Earth's magnetic field changes, known as secular variation (SV), in a 5-year range. Here, we present a SV candidate model for the 13th IGRF that stems from a sequential ensemble data assimilation approach (EnKF). The ensemble consists of a number of parallel-running 3D-dynamo simulations. The assimilated data are geomagnetic field snapshots covering the years 1840 to 2000 from the COV-OBS.x1 model and for 2001 to 2020 from the Kalmag model. A spectral covariance localization method, considering the couplings between spherical harmonics of the same equatorial symmetry and same azimuthal wave number, allows decreasing the ensemble size to about a 100 while maintaining the stability of the assimilation. The quality of 5-year predictions is tested for the past two decades. These tests show that the assimilation scheme is able to reconstruct the overall SV evolution. They also suggest that a better 5-year forecast is obtained keeping the SV constant compared to the dynamically evolving SV. However, the quality of the dynamical forecast steadily improves over the full assimilation window (180 years). We therefore propose the instantaneous SV estimate for 2020 from our assimilation as a candidate model for the IGRF-13. The ensemble approach provides uncertainty estimates, which closely match the residual differences with respect to the IGRF-13. Longer term predictions for the evolution of the main magnetic field features over a 50-year range are also presented. We observe the further decrease of the axial dipole at a mean rate of 8 nT/year as well as a deepening and broadening of the South Atlantic Anomaly. The magnetic dip poles are seen to approach an eccentric dipole configuration.},
  language  = {en}
}