@article{LilliestamOllierLabordenaMiretal.2020, author = {Lilliestam, Johan and Ollier, Lana and Labordena Mir, Merc{\`e} and Pfenninger, Stefan and Thonig, Richard}, title = {The near- to mid-term outlook for concentrating solar power}, series = {Energy sources. B, Economics, planning and policy}, volume = {16}, journal = {Energy sources. B, Economics, planning and policy}, number = {1}, publisher = {Taylor \& Francis}, address = {London [u.a.]}, issn = {1556-7249}, doi = {10.1080/15567249.2020.1773580}, pages = {23 -- 41}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The history of concentrating solar power (CSP) is characterized by a boom-bust pattern caused by policy support changes. Following the 2014-2016 bust phase, the combination of Chinese support and several low-cost projects triggered a new boom phase. We investigate the near- to mid-term cost, industry, market and policy outlook for the global CSP sector and show that CSP costs have decreased strongly and approach cost-competitiveness with new conventional generation. Industry has been strengthened through the entry of numerous new companies. However, the project pipeline is thin: no project broke ground in 2019 and only four projects are under construction in 2020. The only remaining large support scheme, in China, has been canceled. Without additional support soon creating a new market, the value chain may collapse and recent cost and technological advances may be undone. If policy support is renewed, however, the global CSP sector is prepared for a bright future.}, language = {en} } @article{GosensGilmanovaLilliestam2021, author = {Gosens, Jorrit and Gilmanova, Alina and Lilliestam, Johan}, title = {Windows of opportunity for catching up in formative clean-tech sectors and the rise of China in concentrated solar power}, series = {Environmental innovation and societal transitions}, volume = {39}, journal = {Environmental innovation and societal transitions}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {2210-4224}, doi = {10.1016/j.eist.2021.03.005}, pages = {86 -- 106}, year = {2021}, abstract = {We analyse the potential for industry entry and catching up by latecomer countries or firms in formative sectors, by deriving a framework that builds on the concept of windows of opportunity for catching up. This framework highlights differences in technological, market, and institutional characteristics between formative and mature sectors, and elaborates how this may affect opportunities for catching up. We apply this framework to the global Concentrated Solar Power sector, in which China has rapidly narrowed the gap to the global forefront in terms of technological capabilities and market competitiveness. We find that the formative nature of the sector resulted in turbulent development of the technological, market, and institutional dimensions, making it more difficult for early leaders to retain leadership, and therefore easier for latecomer firms or countries to catch up. This signals an increased role in early-stage technology development in the next phase of the energy transition.}, language = {en} }