@article{ŠedovaKalkuhl2020, author = {Šedov{\´a}, Barbora and Kalkuhl, Matthias}, title = {Who are the climate migrants and where do they go?}, series = {World development}, volume = {129}, journal = {World development}, publisher = {Elsevier Science}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0305-750X}, doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104848}, pages = {19}, year = {2020}, abstract = {In this paper, we move from the large strand of research that looks at evidence of climate migration to the questions: who are the climate migrants? and where do they go? These questions are crucial to design policies that mitigate welfare losses of migration choices due to climate change. We study the direct and heterogeneous associations between weather extremes and migration in rural India. We combine ERAS reanalysis data with the India Human Development Survey household panel and conduct regression analyses by applying linear probability and multinomial logit models. This enables us to establish a causal relationship between temperature and precipitation anomalies and overall migration as well as migration by destination. We show that adverse weather shocks decrease rural-rural and international migration and push people into cities in different, presumably more prosperous states. A series of positive weather shocks, however, facilitates international migration and migration to cities within the same state. Further, our results indicate that in contrast to other migrants, climate migrants are likely to be from the lower end of the skill distribution and from households strongly dependent on agricultural production. We estimate that approximately 8\% of all rural-urban moves between 2005 and 2012 can be attributed to weather. This figure might increase as a consequence of climate change. Thus, a key policy recommendation is to take steps to facilitate integration of less educated migrants into the urban labor market.}, language = {en} } @article{WolfPhamMatthewsetal.2020, author = {Wolf, Sabina and Pham, My and Matthews, Nathanial and Bubeck, Philip}, title = {Understanding the implementation gap}, series = {Climate \& development}, volume = {13}, journal = {Climate \& development}, number = {1}, publisher = {Taylor \& Francis LTD}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {1756-5529}, doi = {10.1080/17565529.2020.1724068}, pages = {81 -- 94}, year = {2020}, abstract = {In recent years, nature-based solutions are receiving increasing attention in the field of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation as inclusive, no regret approaches. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) can mitigate the impacts of climate change, build resilience and tackle environmental degradation thereby supporting the targets set by the 2030 Agenda, the Paris Agreement and the Sendai Framework. Despite these benefits, EbA is still rarely implemented in practice. To better understand the barriers to implementation, this research examines policy-makers' perceptions of EbA, using an extended version of Protection Motivation Theory as an analytical framework. Through semi-structured interviews with policy-makers at regional and provincial level in Central Vietnam, it was found that EbA is generally considered a promising response option, mainly due to its multiple ecosystem-service benefits. The demand for EbA measures was largely driven by the perceived consequences of natural hazards and climate change. Insufficient perceived response efficacy and time-lags in effectiveness for disaster risk reduction were identified as key impediments for implementation. Pilot projects and capacity building on EbA are important means to overcome these perceptual barriers. This paper contributes to bridging the knowledge-gap on political decision-making regarding EbA and can, thereby, promote its mainstreaming into policy plans.}, language = {en} } @article{VindasPicadoYaneyKellerStAndrewsetal.2020, author = {Vindas-Picado, Jos{\´e} and Yaney-Keller, Adam and St. Andrews, Laura and Panagopoulou, Aliki and Santidri{\´a}n Tomillo, Pilar}, title = {Effectiveness of shading to mitigate the impact of high temperature on sea turtle clutches considering the effect on primary sex ratios}, series = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change : an international journal devoted to scientific, engineering, socio-economic and policy responses to environmental change}, volume = {25}, journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change : an international journal devoted to scientific, engineering, socio-economic and policy responses to environmental change}, number = {8}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1381-2386}, doi = {10.1007/s11027-020-09932-3}, pages = {1509 -- 1521}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Developmental success of sea turtle clutches depends on incubation temperature, which also determines sex ratio of hatchlings. As global temperatures are rising, several studies have proposed mitigation strategies such as irrigation and shading to increase hatching success. Our study expands upon this research and measures the effects of using boxes with different degrees of shade coverage (50\%, 80\%, and 90\%) on sand temperature and water content. Boxes were fully covered with fabric in 2017/2018 (top and sides) but were side open in 2018/2019. We took measurements at olive ridley (Lepidochelys olivacea) and leatherback (Dermochelys coriacea) turtle nest depths (45 and 75 cm) at Playa Grande, Costa Rica. Shading reduced temperature by up to 0.8 degrees C and up to 0.4 degrees C at 45 cm and 75 cm, respectively. There were statistically significant differences between shading and control treatments at both depths, but differences between shade treatments were only significant when using side open boxes, possibly due to air flow. Shading had no effect on water content. While the impact of using shaded boxes on temperature was low, the potential impact on primary sex ratios was large. If shading were applied to leatherback clutches, the percentage of female hatchlings could vary by up to 50\%, with a maximum difference around the pivotal temperature (temperature with 1:1 sex ratio). Shading can be useful to increase hatching success, but we recommend avoiding it at temperatures within the transitional range (temperatures that produce both sexes), or using it only during the last third of incubation, when sex is already determined. As global warming will likely continue, understanding potential impact and effectiveness of mitigation strategies may be critical for the survival of threatened sea turtle populations.}, language = {en} } @misc{vanReesWaylenSchmidtKloiberetal.2020, author = {van Rees, Charles B. and Waylen, Kerry A. and Schmidt-Kloiber, Astrid and Thackeray, Stephen J. and Kalinkat, Gregor and Martens, Koen and Domisch, Sami and Lillebo, Ana and Hermoso, Virgilio and Grossart, Hans-Peter and Schinegger, Rafaela and Decleer, Kris and Adriaens, Tim and Denys, Luc and Jaric, Ivan and Janse, Jan H. and Monaghan, Michael T. and De Wever, Aaike and Geijzendorffer, Ilse and Adamescu, Mihai C. and J{\"a}hnig, Sonja C.}, title = {Safeguarding freshwater life beyond 2020}, series = {Conservation letters}, volume = {14}, journal = {Conservation letters}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1755-263X}, doi = {10.1111/conl.12771}, pages = {17}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Plans are currently being drafted for the next decade of action on biodiversity-both the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and Biodiversity Strategy of the European Union (EU). Freshwater biodiversity is disproportionately threatened and underprioritized relative to the marine and terrestrial biota, despite supporting a richness of species and ecosystems with their own intrinsic value and providing multiple essential ecosystem services. Future policies and strategies must have a greater focus on the unique ecology of freshwater life and its multiple threats, and now is a critical time to reflect on how this may be achieved. We identify priority topics including environmental flows, water quality, invasive species, integrated water resources management, strategic conservation planning, and emerging technologies for freshwater ecosystem monitoring. We synthesize these topics with decades of first-hand experience and recent literature into 14 special recommendations for global freshwater biodiversity conservation based on the successes and setbacks of European policy, management, and research. Applying and following these recommendations will inform and enhance the ability of global and European post-2020 biodiversity agreements to halt and reverse the rapid global decline of freshwater biodiversity.}, language = {en} } @article{TesselaarBotzenHaeretal.2020, author = {Tesselaar, Max and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Haer, Toon and Hudson, Paul and Tiggeloven, Timothy and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.}, title = {Regional inequalities in flood insurance affordability and uptake under climate change}, series = {Sustainability}, volume = {12}, journal = {Sustainability}, number = {20}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2071-1050}, doi = {10.3390/su12208734}, pages = {30}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Flood insurance coverage can enhance financial resilience of households to changing flood risk caused by climate change. However, income inequalities imply that not all households can afford flood insurance. The uptake of flood insurance in voluntary markets may decline when flood risk increases as a result of climate change. This increase in flood risk may cause substantially higher risk-based insurance premiums, reduce the willingness to purchase flood insurance, and worsen problems with the unaffordability of coverage for low-income households. A socio-economic tipping-point can occur when the functioning of a formal flood insurance system is hampered by diminishing demand for coverage. In this study, we examine whether such a tipping-point can occur in Europe for current flood insurance systems under different trends in future flood risk caused by climate and socio-economic change. This analysis gives insights into regional inequalities concerning the ability to continue to use flood insurance as an instrument to adapt to changing flood risk. For this study, we adapt the "Dynamic Integrated Flood and Insurance" (DIFI) model by integrating new flood risk simulations in the model that enable examining impacts from various scenarios of climate and socio-economic change on flood insurance premiums and consumer demand. Our results show rising unaffordability and declining demand for flood insurance across scenarios towards 2080. Under a high climate change scenario, simulations show the occurrence of a socio-economic tipping-point in several regions, where insurance uptake almost disappears. A tipping-point and related inequalities in the ability to use flood insurance as an adaptation instrument can be mitigated by introducing reforms of flood insurance arrangements.}, language = {en} } @article{SalenHoviSprinzetal.2020, author = {S{\ae}len, H{\aa}kon and Hovi, Jon and Sprinz, Detlef F. and Underdal, Arild}, title = {How US withdrawal might influence cooperation under the Paris climate agreement}, series = {Environmental science \& policy}, volume = {108}, journal = {Environmental science \& policy}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {1462-9011}, doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2020.03.011}, pages = {121 -- 132}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Using a novel agent-based model, we study how US withdrawal might influence the political process established by the Paris Agreement, and hence the prospects for reaching the collective goal to limit warming below 2 degrees C. Our model enables us to analyze to what extent reaching this goal despite US withdrawal would place more stringent requirements on other core elements of the Paris cooperation process. We find, first, that the effect of a US withdrawal depends critically on the extent to which member countries reciprocate others' promises and contributions. Second, while the 2 degrees C goal will likely be reached only under a very small set of conditions in any event, even temporary US withdrawal will further narrow this set significantly. Reaching this goal will then require other countries to step up their ambition at the first opportunity and to comply nearly 100\% with their pledges, while maintaining high confidence in the Paris Agreements institutions. Third, although a US withdrawal will first primarily affect the United States' own emissions, it will eventually prove even more detrimental to other countries' emissions.}, language = {en} } @misc{StoofLeichsenringPestryakovaEppetal.2020, author = {Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna and Epp, Laura Saskia and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Phylogenetic diversity and environment form assembly rules for Arctic diatom genera}, series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {5}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-51548}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-515485}, pages = {16}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Aim This study investigates taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity in diatom genera to evaluate assembly rules for eukaryotic microbes across the Siberian tree line. We first analysed how phylogenetic distance relates to taxonomic richness and turnover. Second, we used relatedness indices to evaluate if environmental filtering or competition influences the assemblies in space and through time. Third, we used distance-based ordination to test which environmental variables shape diatom turnover. Location Yakutia and Taymyria, Russia: we sampled 78 surface sediments and a sediment core, extending to 7,000 years before present, to capture the forest-tundra transition in space and time respectively. Taxon Arctic freshwater diatoms. Methods We applied metabarcoding to retrieve diatom diversity from surface and core sedimentary DNA. The taxonomic assignment binned sequence types (lineages) into genera and created taxonomic (abundance of lineages within different genera) and phylogenetic datasets (phylogenetic distances of lineages within different genera). Results Contrary to our expectations, we find a unimodal relationship between phylogenetic distance and richness in diatom genera. We discern a positive relationship between phylogenetic distance and taxonomic turnover in spatially and temporally distributed diatom genera. Furthermore, we reveal positive relatedness indices in diatom genera across the spatial environmental gradient and predominantly in time slices at a single location, with very few exceptions assuming effects of competition. Distance-based ordination of taxonomic and phylogenetic turnover indicates that lake environment variables, like HCO3- and water depth, largely explain diatom turnover. Main conclusion Phylogenetic and abiotic assembly rules are important in understanding the regional assembly of diatom genera across lakes in the Siberian tree line ecotone. Using a space-time approach we are able to exclude the influence of geography and elucidate that lake environmental variables primarily shape the assemblies. We conclude that some diatom genera have greater capabilities to adapt to environmental changes, whereas others will be putatively replaced or lost due to the displacement of the Arctic tundra biome under recent global warming.}, language = {en} } @article{StoofLeichsenringPestryakovaEppetal.2020, author = {Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna and Epp, Laura Saskia and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Phylogenetic diversity and environment form assembly rules for Arctic diatom genera}, series = {Journal of Biogeography}, volume = {47}, journal = {Journal of Biogeography}, number = {5}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0305-0270}, doi = {10.1111/jbi.13786}, pages = {1166 -- 1179}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Aim This study investigates taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity in diatom genera to evaluate assembly rules for eukaryotic microbes across the Siberian tree line. We first analysed how phylogenetic distance relates to taxonomic richness and turnover. Second, we used relatedness indices to evaluate if environmental filtering or competition influences the assemblies in space and through time. Third, we used distance-based ordination to test which environmental variables shape diatom turnover. Location Yakutia and Taymyria, Russia: we sampled 78 surface sediments and a sediment core, extending to 7,000 years before present, to capture the forest-tundra transition in space and time respectively. Taxon Arctic freshwater diatoms. Methods We applied metabarcoding to retrieve diatom diversity from surface and core sedimentary DNA. The taxonomic assignment binned sequence types (lineages) into genera and created taxonomic (abundance of lineages within different genera) and phylogenetic datasets (phylogenetic distances of lineages within different genera). Results Contrary to our expectations, we find a unimodal relationship between phylogenetic distance and richness in diatom genera. We discern a positive relationship between phylogenetic distance and taxonomic turnover in spatially and temporally distributed diatom genera. Furthermore, we reveal positive relatedness indices in diatom genera across the spatial environmental gradient and predominantly in time slices at a single location, with very few exceptions assuming effects of competition. Distance-based ordination of taxonomic and phylogenetic turnover indicates that lake environment variables, like HCO3- and water depth, largely explain diatom turnover. Main conclusion Phylogenetic and abiotic assembly rules are important in understanding the regional assembly of diatom genera across lakes in the Siberian tree line ecotone. Using a space-time approach we are able to exclude the influence of geography and elucidate that lake environmental variables primarily shape the assemblies. We conclude that some diatom genera have greater capabilities to adapt to environmental changes, whereas others will be putatively replaced or lost due to the displacement of the Arctic tundra biome under recent global warming.}, language = {en} } @misc{SmithBookhagen2020, author = {Smith, Taylor and Bookhagen, Bodo}, title = {Assessing Multi-Temporal Snow-Volume Trends in High Mountain Asia From 1987 to 2016 Using High-Resolution Passive Microwave Data}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1020}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-48417}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-484176}, pages = {15}, year = {2020}, abstract = {High Mountain Asia (HMA) is dependent upon both the amount and timing of snow and glacier meltwater. Previous model studies and coarse resolution (0.25° × 0.25°, ∼25 km × 25 km) passive microwave assessments of trends in the volume and timing of snowfall, snowmelt, and glacier melt in HMA have identified key spatial and seasonal heterogeneities in the response of snow to changes in regional climate. Here we use recently developed, continuous, internally consistent, and high-resolution passive microwave data (3.125 km × 3.125 km, 1987-2016) from the special sensor microwave imager instrument family to refine and extend previous estimates of changes in the snow regime of HMA. We find an overall decline in snow volume across HMA; however, there exist spatially contiguous regions of increasing snow volume—particularly during the winter season in the Pamir, Karakoram, Hindu Kush, and Kunlun Shan. Detailed analysis of changes in snow-volume trends through time reveal a large step change from negative trends during the period 1987-1997, to much more positive trends across large regions of HMA during the periods 1997-2007 and 2007-2016. We also find that changes in high percentile monthly snow-water volume exhibit steeper trends than changes in low percentile snow-water volume, which suggests a reduction in the frequency of high snow-water volumes in much of HMA. Regions with positive snow-water storage trends generally correspond to regions of positive glacier mass balances.}, language = {en} } @article{SmithBookhagen2020, author = {Smith, Taylor and Bookhagen, Bodo}, title = {Assessing Multi-Temporal Snow-Volume Trends in High Mountain Asia From 1987 to 2016 Using High-Resolution Passive Microwave Data}, series = {Frontiers in Earth Science}, volume = {8}, journal = {Frontiers in Earth Science}, publisher = {Frontiers Media}, address = {Lausanne}, issn = {2296-6463}, doi = {10.3389/feart.2020.559175}, pages = {13}, year = {2020}, abstract = {High Mountain Asia (HMA) is dependent upon both the amount and timing of snow and glacier meltwater. Previous model studies and coarse resolution (0.25° × 0.25°, ∼25 km × 25 km) passive microwave assessments of trends in the volume and timing of snowfall, snowmelt, and glacier melt in HMA have identified key spatial and seasonal heterogeneities in the response of snow to changes in regional climate. Here we use recently developed, continuous, internally consistent, and high-resolution passive microwave data (3.125 km × 3.125 km, 1987-2016) from the special sensor microwave imager instrument family to refine and extend previous estimates of changes in the snow regime of HMA. We find an overall decline in snow volume across HMA; however, there exist spatially contiguous regions of increasing snow volume—particularly during the winter season in the Pamir, Karakoram, Hindu Kush, and Kunlun Shan. Detailed analysis of changes in snow-volume trends through time reveal a large step change from negative trends during the period 1987-1997, to much more positive trends across large regions of HMA during the periods 1997-2007 and 2007-2016. We also find that changes in high percentile monthly snow-water volume exhibit steeper trends than changes in low percentile snow-water volume, which suggests a reduction in the frequency of high snow-water volumes in much of HMA. Regions with positive snow-water storage trends generally correspond to regions of positive glacier mass balances.}, language = {en} }