@article{CervantesVillaShpritsAseevetal.2019, author = {Cervantes Villa, Juan Sebastian and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Aseev, Nikita and Drozdov, Alexander and Castillo Tibocha, Angelica Maria and Stolle, Claudia}, title = {Identifying radiation belt electron source and loss processes by assimilating spacecraft data in a three-dimensional diffusion model}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {125}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {1}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2019JA027514}, pages = {16}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Data assimilation aims to blend incomplete and inaccurate data with physics-based dynamical models. In the Earth's radiation belts, it is used to reconstruct electron phase space density, and it has become an increasingly important tool in validating our current understanding of radiation belt dynamics, identifying new physical processes, and predicting the near-Earth hazardous radiation environment. In this study, we perform reanalysis of the sparse measurements from four spacecraft using the three-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt diffusion model and a split-operator Kalman filter over a 6-month period from 1 October 2012 to 1 April 2013. In comparison to previous works, our 3-D model accounts for more physical processes, namely, mixed pitch angle-energy diffusion, scattering by Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron waves, and magnetopause shadowing. We describe how data assimilation, by means of the innovation vector, can be used to account for missing physics in the model. We use this method to identify the radial distances from the Earth and the geomagnetic conditions where our model is inconsistent with the measured phase space density for different values of the invariants mu and K. As a result, the Kalman filter adjusts the predictions in order to match the observations, and we interpret this as evidence of where and when additional source or loss processes are active. The current work demonstrates that 3-D data assimilation provides a comprehensive picture of the radiation belt electrons and is a crucial step toward performing reanalysis using measurements from ongoing and future missions.}, language = {en} } @misc{TroendleLilliestamMarellietal.2020, author = {Tr{\"o}ndle, Tim and Lilliestam, Johan and Marelli, Stefano and Pfenninger, Stefan}, title = {Trade-offs between geographic scale, cost, and infrastructure requirements for fully renewable electricity in Europe}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {9}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-53961}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-539611}, pages = {1929 -- 1948}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The European potential for renewable electricity is sufficient to enable fully renewable supply on different scales, from self-sufficient, subnational regions to an interconnected continent. We not only show that a continental-scale system is the cheapest, but also that systems on the national scale and below are possible at cost penalties of 20\% or less. Transmission is key to low cost, but it is not necessary to vastly expand the transmission system. When electricity is transmitted only to balance fluctuations, the transmission grid size is comparable to today's, albeit with expanded cross-border capacities. The largest differences across scales concern land use and thus social acceptance: in the continental system, generation capacity is concentrated on the European periphery, where the best resources are. Regional systems, in contrast, have more dispersed generation. The key trade-off is therefore not between geographic scale and cost, but between scale and the spatial distribution of required generation and transmission infrastructure.}, language = {en} } @article{Ayzel2018, author = {Ayzel, Georgy V.}, title = {Runoff predictions in ungauged arctic basins using conceptual models forced by reanalysis data}, series = {Water Resources}, volume = {45}, journal = {Water Resources}, publisher = {Pleiades Publ.}, address = {New York}, issn = {0097-8078}, doi = {10.1134/S0097807818060180}, pages = {S1 -- S7}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Due to global warming, the problem of assessing water resources and their vulnerability to climate drivers in the Arctic region has become a focus in the recent years. This study is aimed at investigating three lumped hydrological models to predict daily runoff of large-scale Arctic basins in the case of substantial data scarcity. All models were driven only by meteorological forcing reanalysis dataset without any additional information about landscape, soil, or vegetation cover properties of the studied basins. Model parameter regionalization based on transferring the whole parameter set showed good efficiency for predictions in ungauged basins. We run a blind test of the proposed methodology for ensemble runoff predictions on five sub-basins, for which only monthly observations were available, and obtained promising results for current water resources assessment for a broad domain of ungauged basins in the Russian Arctic.}, language = {en} } @article{JessenFelser2018, author = {Jessen, Anna and Felser, Claudia}, title = {Reanalysing object gaps during non-native sentence processing}, series = {Second language research}, volume = {35}, journal = {Second language research}, number = {2}, publisher = {Sage Publ.}, address = {London}, issn = {0267-6583}, doi = {10.1177/0267658317753030}, pages = {285 -- 299}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The present study used event related potentials (ERPs) to investigate how native (L1) German-speaking second-language (L2) learners of English process sentences containing filler-gap dependencies such as Bill liked the house (women) that Bob built some ornaments for __ at his workplace. Using an experimental design which allowed us to dissociate filler integration from reanalysis effects, we found that fillers which were implausible as direct objects of the embedded verb (e.g. built the women) elicited similar brain responses (an N400) in L1 and L2 speakers when the verb was encountered. This confirms findings from behavioral and eye-movement studies indicating that both L1 and L2 speakers immediately try to integrate a filler with a potential lexical licensor. L1/L2 differences were observed when subsequent sentence material signaled that the direct-object analysis was in fact incorrect, however. We found reanalysis effects, in the shape of a P600 for sentences containing fillers that were plausible direct objects only for L2 speakers, but not for the L1 group. This supports previous findings suggesting that L2 comprehenders recover from an initially plausible first analysis less easily than L1 speakers.}, language = {en} } @misc{AcevedoFallahReichetal.2017, author = {Acevedo, Walter and Fallah, Bijan and Reich, Sebastian and Cubasch, Ulrich}, title = {Assimilation of pseudo-tree-ring-width observations into an atmospheric general circulation model}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {627}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41874}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418743}, pages = {545 -- 557}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) is a promising technique to systematically combine the information from climate model simulations and proxy records. Here, we investigate the assimilation of tree-ring-width (TRW) chronologies into an atmospheric global climate model using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques and a process-based tree-growth forward model as an observation operator. Our results, within a perfect-model experiment setting, indicate that the "online DA" approach did not outperform the "off-line" one, despite its considerable additional implementation complexity. On the other hand, it was observed that the nonlinear response of tree growth to surface temperature and soil moisture does deteriorate the operation of the time-averaged EnKF methodology. Moreover, for the first time we show that this skill loss appears significantly sensitive to the structure of the growth rate function, used to represent the principle of limiting factors (PLF) within the forward model. In general, our experiments showed that the error reduction achieved by assimilating pseudo-TRW chronologies is modulated by the magnitude of the yearly internal variability in themodel. This result might help the dendrochronology community to optimize their sampling efforts.}, language = {en} } @misc{MolnosMamdouhPetrietal.2017, author = {Molnos, Sonja and Mamdouh, Tarek and Petri, Stefan and Nocke, Thomas and Weinkauf, Tino and Coumou, Dim}, title = {A network-based detection scheme for the jet stream core}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {625}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41909}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419099}, pages = {75 -- 89}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The polar and subtropical jet streams are strong upper-level winds with a crucial influence on weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In particular, the polar jet is located between cold arctic air to the north and warmer subtropical air to the south. Strongly meandering states therefore often lead to extreme surface weather. Some algorithms exist which can detect the 2-D (latitude and longitude) jets' core around the hemisphere, but all of them use a minimal threshold to determine the subtropical and polar jet stream. This is particularly problematic for the polar jet stream, whose wind velocities can change rapidly from very weak to very high values and vice versa. We develop a network-based scheme using Dijkstra's shortest-path algorithm to detect the polar and subtropical jet stream core. This algorithm not only considers the commonly used wind strength for core detection but also takes wind direction and climatological latitudinal position into account. Furthermore, it distinguishes between polar and subtropical jet, and between separate and merged jet states. The parameter values of the detection scheme are optimized using simulated annealing and a skill function that accounts for the zonal-mean jet stream position (Rikus, 2015). After the successful optimization process, we apply our scheme to reanalysis data covering 1979-2015 and calculate seasonal-mean probabilistic maps and trends in wind strength and position of jet streams. We present longitudinally defined probability distributions of the positions for both jets for all on the Northern Hemisphere seasons. This shows that winter is characterized by two well-separated jets over Europe and Asia (ca. 20 degrees W to 140 degrees E). In contrast, summer normally has a single merged jet over the western hemisphere but can have both merged and separated jet states in the eastern hemisphere. With this algorithm it is possible to investigate the position of the jets' cores around the hemisphere and it is therefore very suitable to analyze jet stream patterns in observations and models, enabling more advanced model-validation.}, language = {en} } @article{BacskaiAtkari2014, author = {Bacskai-Atkari, Julia}, title = {Cyclical change in Hungarian comparatives}, series = {Diachronica}, volume = {31}, journal = {Diachronica}, number = {4}, publisher = {Benjamins}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0176-4225}, doi = {10.1075/dia.31.4.01bac}, pages = {465 -- 505}, year = {2014}, abstract = {This paper examines cyclical changes in comparative subclauses, showing how operators are reanalysed as complementisers via the general mechanism of the relative cycle, and how this is related to whether certain lexical elements have to be deleted at the left periphery. I also show that only operators appearing without a lexical XP can be grammaticalised, which follows from the nature of the formal features associated with the various operator elements. Though the main focus is on Hungarian historical data, the framework can be applied to other languages too, such as German and Italian, since the changes stem from general principles of economy.}, language = {en} } @article{McCurdyKentnerVasishth2013, author = {McCurdy, Kate and Kentner, Gerrit and Vasishth, Shravan}, title = {Implicit prosody and contextual bias in silent reading}, series = {Journal of Eye Movement Research}, volume = {6}, journal = {Journal of Eye Movement Research}, number = {2}, publisher = {International Group for Eye Movement Research}, address = {Bern}, issn = {1995-8692}, pages = {17}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Eye-movement research on implicit prosody has found effects of lexical stress on syntactic ambiguity resolution, suggesting that metrical well-formedness constraints interact with syntactic category assignment. Building on these findings, the present eyetracking study investigates whether contextual bias can modulate the effects of metrical structure on syntactic ambiguity resolution in silent reading. Contextual bias and potential stress-clash in the ambiguous region were crossed in a 2 x 2 design. Participants read biased context sentences followed by temporarily ambiguous test sentences. In the three-word ambiguous region, main effects of lexical stress were dominant, while early effects of context were absent. Potential stress clash yielded a significant increase in first-pass regressions and re-reading probability across the three words. In the disambiguating region, the disambiguating word itself showed increased processing difficulty (lower skipping and increased re-reading probability) when the disambiguation engendered a stress clash configuration, while the word immediately following showed main effects of context in those same measures. Taken together, effects of lexical stress upon eye movements were swift and pervasive across first-pass and second-pass measures, while effects of context were relatively delayed. These results indicate a strong role for implicit meter in guiding parsing, one that appears insensitive to higher-level constraints. Our findings are problematic for two classes of models, the two-stage garden-path model and the constraint-based competition-integration model, but can be explained by a variation on the two-stage model, the unrestricted race model.}, language = {en} }