TY  - JOUR
A1  - Gomez Zapata, Juan Camilo
A1  - Zafrir, Raquel
A1  - Pittore, Massimiliano
A1  - Merino, Yvonne
T1  - Towards a sensitivity analysis in seismic risk with probabilistic building exposure models
T2  - ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information
N2  - Efforts have been made in the past to enhance building exposure models on a regional scale with increasing spatial resolutions by integrating different data sources. This work follows a similar path and focuses on the downscaling of the existing SARA exposure model that was proposed for the residential building stock of the communes of Valparaiso and Vina del Mar (Chile). Although this model allowed great progress in harmonising building classes and characterising their differential physical vulnerabilities, it is now outdated, and in any case, it is spatially aggregated over large administrative units. Hence, to more accurately consider the impact of future earthquakes on these cities, it is necessary to employ more reliable exposure models. For such a purpose, we propose updating this existing model through a Bayesian approach by integrating ancillary data that has been made increasingly available from Volunteering Geo-Information (VGI) activities. Its spatial representation is also optimised in higher resolution aggregation units that avoid the inconvenience of having incomplete building-by-building footprints. A worst-case earthquake scenario is presented to calculate direct economic losses and highlight the degree of uncertainty imposed by exposure models in comparison with other parameters used to generate the seismic ground motions within a sensitivity analysis. This example study shows the great potential of using increasingly available VGI to update worldwide building exposure models as well as its importance in scenario-based seismic risk assessment.
KW  - exposure
KW  - buildings
KW  - Bayesian model
KW  - downscaling
KW  - OpenStreetMap
KW  - ground motion fields
KW  - sensitivity
KW  - earthquake
KW  - vulnerability
KW  - risk
Y1  - 2022
UR  - https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/63963
SN  - 2220-9964
VL  - 11
IS  - 2
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  -