TY  - JOUR
A1  - Sprinz, Detlef F.
A1  - de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno
A1  - Kallbekken, Steffen
A1  - Stokman, Frans
A1  - Saelen, Hakon
A1  - Thomson, Robert
T1  - Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations
T2  - Politics and Governance
N2  - We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world’s leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer’s Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combining experts’ predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts’ predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulation models were not statistically significant.
KW  - climate policy
KW  - climate regime
KW  - expert survey
KW  - forecasting
KW  - global negotiations
KW  - Paris agreement
KW  - prediction
KW  - simulation
Y1  - 2016
UR  - https://publishup.uni-potsdam.de/frontdoor/index/index/docId/45763
SN  - 2183-2463
VL  - 4
SP  - 172
EP  - 187
PB  - Cogitatio Press
CY  - Lisbon
ER  -