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Higher variability in rainfall and river discharge could be of major importance in landslide generation in the north-western Argentine Andes. Annual layered (varved) deposits of a landslide dammed lake in the Santa Maria Basin (26°S, 66°W) with an age of 30,000 14C years provide an archive of precipitation variability during this time. The comparison of these data with present-day rainfall observations tests the hypothesis that increased rainfall variability played a major role in landslide generation. A potential cause of such variability is the El Niño/ Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The causal link between ENSO and local rainfall is quantified by using a new method of nonlinear data analysis, the quantitative analysis of cross recurrence plots (CRP). This method seeks similarities in the dynamics of two different processes, such as an ocean-atmosphere oscillation and local rainfall. Our analysis reveals significant similarities in the statistics of both modern and palaeo-precipitation data. The similarities in the data suggest that an ENSO-like influence on local rainfall was present at around 30,000 14C years ago. Increased rainfall, which was inferred from a lake balance modeling in a previous study, together with ENSO-like cyclicities could help to explain the clustering of landslides at around 30,000 14C years ago.
Multiple landslide clusters record quaternary climate changes in the northwestern Argentine andes
(2003)
The chronology of multiple landslide deposits and related lake sediments in the semi-arid eastern Argentine Cordillera suggests that major mass movements cluster in two time periods during the Quaternary, i.e. between 40 and 25 and after 5 14C kyr BP. These clusters may correspond to the Minchin (maximum at around 28-27 14C kyr BP) and Titicaca wet periods (after 3.9 14C kyr BP). The more humid conditions apparently caused enhanced landsliding in this environment. In contrast, no landslide-related damming and associated lake sediments occurred during the Coipasa (11.5- 10 14C yr BP) and Tauca wet periods (14.5-11 14C yr BP). The two clusters at 40-25 and after 5 14C kyr BP may correspond to periods where the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Variability (TAV) were active. This, however, was not the case during the Coipasa and Tauca wet periods. Lake-balance modelling of a landslide-dammed lake suggests a 10-15% increase in precipitation and a 3-4 ° C decrease in temperature at ~30 14C kyr BP as compared to the present. In addition, time-series analysis reveals a strong ENSO and TAV during that time. The landslide clusters in northwestern Argentina are therefore best explained by periods of more humid and more variable climates.
As a consequence of increasing winter rainfall totals and intensities over the second half of the 20th century, signs of increased flooding probability in many areas of the Rhine and Meuse basins have been documented. These changes affecting rainfall characteristics are most evidently due to an increase in westerly atmospheric circulation types. Land use changes, particularly urbanization, can have significant local effects in small basins (headwaters) with respect to flooding, especially during heavy local rainstorms, but no evidence exists that land use change has had significant effects on peak flows in the rivers Rhine and Meuse. For the 21st century, most global circulation models suggest higher winter rainfall totals. Most hydrological simulations of the Rhine-Meuse river basins suggest an increased flooding probability, with a progressive shift of the Rhine from a 'rain-fed/meltwater' river into a mainly 'rain-fed' river. A very limited effect of changes in land use on the discharge regime seems to exist for the main branches of the Meuse and Rhine rivers. For mesoscale basins, future changes in peak flows depend on the changes in the variability of extreme precipitations in combination with land use changes. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd