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Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.
We present a new method to detect phase as well as generalized synchronization in a wide class of complex systems. It is based on the recurrences of the system's trajectory to the neighborhood of a former state in phase space. We illustrate the applicability of the algorithm for the paradigmatic chaotic Rossler system in the funnel regime and for noisy data, where other methods to detect phase synchronization fail. Furthermore, we demonstrate for electrochemical experiments that the method can easily detect phase and generalized synchronization in non-phase- coherent and even non-stationary time series
Two deterministic processes leading to roughening interfaces are considered. It is shown that the dynamics of linear perturbations of turbulent regimes in coupled map lattices is governed by a discrete version of the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang equation. The asymptotic scaling behavior of the perturbation field is investigated in the case of large lattices. Secondly, the dynamics of an order-disorder interface is modelled with a simple two-dimensional coupled map lattice, possesing a turbulent and a laminar state. It is demonstrated, that in some range of parameters the spreading of the turbulent state is accompanied by kinetic roughening of the interface.